Having shaken off

Four months past the presidential election I can confess in the run-off I voted for Mr Trzaskowski with some disgust. With no doubts, aware that my vote was primarily against Mr Nawrocki, driven my common sense. My disgust reached its peak when he prematurely announced his victory based on exit polls, giving him a tiny lead, far below the error margin of 2 percentage points. In the next days, along with over 10 million of voters I imploded into a short mourning, but got over it quickly. Two days after his defeat Mr Trzaskowski returned to his office and carried on as a mayor of Warsaw. He did what residents of the capital had given him a mandate to do, focused on running the city and kept away from country-wide politics, especially from the dispute on allegedly rigged election.

With time I Mr Trzaskowski has evolved in my mind to man being a class of his own. My disgust has faded away and has given way to a strong sense of a properly fulfilled duty. In retrospect, I am strongly convinced I voted for the most suitable candidate.

Mr Trzaskowski, though active as a mayor of Warsaw, shunned interviews with journalists until 26 September 2025, when he faced a (belated) barrage of questions from media representatives and youngsters. I have also watched it belatedly, however recommend you sacrifice 80 minutes of your precious time to listen or watch the interview in which Mr Trzaskowski was not spared inconvenient questions.

A mature man is capable of conceding his defeat, admitting mistakes he has made and learning from them. This is what Mr Trzaskowski is like. He appears wiser than his political entourage and most of his voters. He correctly urges not to bridle at reality nor to antagonise those who voted for his rival. Poking fun at Mr Nawrocki, as Mr Trzaskowski points out, is counterproductive and only solidifies the current presidents’ hangers-on. Mr Nawrocki’s victory (the scale of irregularities,which by all means ought to be sorted out, would not have brought his score below 50.6%) embodies what majority of Poles have opted for. We need to face the music, realise what has led to such choice and get our act together to minimise the number of seats in the parliament right-wing parties garner in the parliamentary election in 2027.

Mr Trzaskowski gently distances himself from the government, whose ineptitude was one of crucial drivers of his defeat, however calls for unity if the democratic coalition is not to succumb to right-wing opponents.

At the end, when addressing adolescents, he implores them not to break down, warrants not to lick wounds. No one will turn back time, we need to move ahead, pull up sleeves and build modern and tolerant Poland and stem the nationalist flood.

Mr Trzaskowski is not a spick-and-span handsome chap from a picture. He is flesh and bones. His elections staff and political entourage have got it wrong several times during the campaign, Mr Trzaskowski himself has not made any fundamental mistake. The more time lapses from the election, the more I realise a candidate being a symbol of liberal-leftist elites could not stand a chance to win the presidential election is a conservative country in times when the entire world is swerving right. His score of 49% is an accomplishment I am putting down to a his repulsive rival, abhorrent enough to mobilise liberal and leftist electorate to vote against him.

Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Not the outcome I desired

My scepticism expressed in the recent post harshly contrasted with a pre-mature victory claim made by Mr Trzaskowski. I went to sleep, realising the ultimate vote count would show a tiny gap between the contenders’ scores. I woke up at 3:00 a.m., peeked at the mobile phone to find foul language in messages and realised things were not going right.

Just like over 10 million of my compatriots, over the next days I was shaking off the shock. Most of us were aware the risk of Mr Trzaskowski’s defeat was high, but hoping for the best prevailed over fearing the worst. We need to go through a sense of mourning and learn to live with the choice made under rules of democracy. President in Poland has little power, his biggest tool is the right to veto laws submitted by a government. This partly explains why the election result reflected mandate of the coalitional government to pursue certain policies.

Given the cumulation of mistakes made in the campaign and clumsiness of the current government, with hindsight it turns out Mr Trzaskowski did not deserve a victory. Taking into account all circumstances, it appears the 49.11% score is pretty good. It stands for a percentage of Poles who do not want their homeland to be arranged by Mr Nawrocki, Mr Kaczyński, Mr Mentzen, Mr Braun and the likes.

The defeat should give food for thought also to ordinary people, educated, affluent, living in large cities. We live in a bubble, we know nothing about provincial Poland and its inhabitants, we are not capable of reaching out for them.

The world has begun to move too fast. Those who do not catch up with it and feel lost, lean towards the far-right parties, which do not distinguish between several shades of grey. They paint a black-or-white picture, much easier to grasp and more convincing to those who got lost. Besides, the right-wing have mastered the art of using social media to spread information and target audience with straightforward messages, often containing disinformation. In a world of people addicted to short films and not taking trouble to verify information they receive, the far-right have gotten the edge over centrist and mild leftist groupings. Poland is hence not a lonely island, with Trump’s victory in the USA being the best evidence for it. Democrats keep licking wounds after his victory, as despite their quite decent, but bland 4-year rule, ordinary people have turned their backs on them.

Over 10.2 million votes for Mr Trzaskowski, just under 370 thousand fewer than Mr Nawrocki scored, ought to bear a testimony of a voice of modern, tolerant and pro-European Poland, a voice of stalwart objection to Poland of right-wing politicians’ dreams. We need to stand up for values we cherish and must not be passive if evil is done.

Off for holidays to the mountains soon, the next post in two weeks. 

We know nothing

TV stations have shown two different exit poll results: by Ipsos (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.30% of votes) and by OGB (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.17% of votes). Surveyors of both contractors had to face a large percentage of refusals which additionally raises margin of error.

Over the last week my election-wise mood had its ups and down. Early into the working week I had hopes for a victory. By Friday, having listened to several people worrying and seeing a strong anti-Trzaskowski assault online and offline, I was despondent. Full of premonitions, I entered the silence period yesterday. I took a break from politics. Today in the afternoon I began observing leaking poll results on Twitter. They basically indicated both candidates were going neck in neck, with some tilt towards Mr Nawrocki’s victory, however gaining less than 50.5% of votes.

As of now, I am not over-optimistic. Exit polls might have underestimated Mr Nawrocki. If Mr Trzaskowski is narrowly chosen, PiS will call into question validity of the election. They have already laid foundations for their theory of rigged elections and I bet they will not fall back.

Have a restful night and keep fingers crossed for a better tomorrow.

Marching

I missed it on 4 June 2023, when I was in Wisła. I missed it on 1 October 2023 when I was in Italy. The third time must have been lucky.

On Monday morning many Poles woke up scared of prospects of rising popularity of extreme right-wing politicians. The rude awakening has not been belated. It mobilised the democratic electorate and thus the wind is slowly taken off Karol Nawrocki’s sails.

Odds of Mr Trzaskowski were raised by new facts on Mr Nawrocki’s past coming into the light, uneven performance of both candidates in the TV debate on Friday and Mr Trzaskowski superb performance in an interview with Mr Mentzen yesterday, contrasting with servility of his rival displayed on Thursday. If today’s march has anyhow strengthened support to Mr Trzaskowski, it was worth spending most of Sunday walking with over 100,000 fellow participants.

I feared how my spine and hips would withstand over three hours of standing upright or ambling, but I feel unexpectedly well (after an hour of rest). Vote wisely next week!

The presidential race in 2025 - first battle

After the introductory post in March 2025, despite keeping track of the campaign daily, I have not caught up with commentaries.

The rivalry remained lacklustre, until late April when a debate hosted by Super Express was held and during which Mr Nawrocki slipped his tongue to assert, just like ordinary Poles, he was in possession of only one dwelling. Soon it turned out he departed from truth and past the long weekend in early May the story of a council bedsit wheedled out from a senile man made the headlines each day. The scandal, predictably, has not led to any reshuffle in the polls, as stalwart voters of PiS easily gave credence an explanation of accusations trumped up by secret services.

The debate hosted by the “public” TVP, Polsat and TVN on 12 May, with record-long duration of 3 hours and 40 minutes was the weakest part of the run-up to the election.

On Friday before the first round it was quite clear the run-off would be necessary and which two candidates would fight a battle on 1 June 2025.

The first figures on low turnout by midday were disappointing and hinted at plausible victory of Mr Nawrocki. Rainy weather in late morning was to blame, however skies cleared up in the afternoon and percentage of voters who went to ballots by 5:00 p.m. was above 50%, 3 percentage points higher than in first round in 2020.

In late afternoon, leaking exit polls already indicated at tiny victory of Rafał Trzaskowski (1 or 2 percentage points) and large uncertainty regarding fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score.

Knowing turnout readings and leaked exit poll results mobilise some voters, I tactically voted late. I did my bit exactly at 6:03 p.m. Quite many people still visited polling stations in Ursynów, however most had already fulfilled their duties beforehand. The district of Ursynów reported a splendid turnout of 63.6% by 5:00 p.m.

The official exit polls results are not a surprise. Mr Trzaskowski triumphs, but has a long way uphill to reach 50% of votes in 2 weeks. Mr Nawrocki, the runner-up, is not far behind his rival. One of far-right candidates, Mr Mentzen, gets around 15% of votes, which is already disturbing. Who gets the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score is a big unknown, but if indeed Grzegorz Braun had support of 6%, it is more than disturbing. The three right-wing candidates in total have scored close to 50%. This does not bode well for the run-off.

Before the we face that battle, a quick summary of winners’ scores from recent presidential elections:
2010: Bronisław Komorowski – 53.01%,
2015: Andrzej Duda – 51.55%,
2020: Andrzej Duda – 51.03%.

I believe in 2025 the trend will continue and a winner will have a near miss on a defeat. Do our jobs in a fortnight and by that time, enjoy the good news from Romania!

Polish presidential election in 2025 – the candidates

How time flies! This is the fourth presidential election in my homeland commented on this blog. In 2010 the vote was held in the shadow of the Smolenskair crash. In 2015 the election paved the way to PiS getting hold of power for 8 years. In 2020 the vote had to be postponed due to the pandemic.

Let’s have a subjective overview of candidates voters in Poland will be able to choose from on 18 May 2025.

Rafał Trzaskowski became a natural contender after in 2020, upon being swapped for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, in not entirely fair duel, scored 49% of votes. Five years ago his freshness added him popularity. Today, he seems to have squandered some of energy, faith and hope put in him. In this campaign he buries a burden of fatigue with liberal-leftist coalition having majority in the Polish parliament since late 2023. For many his biggest merit is handsomeness and fluency in foreign languages. For right-wing wackos he embodies all evils of the liberal elites and is a symbol of progressive leftist agenda. I fear his crew might fire up “Kamala” protocol which will not earn him more voters but might discourage floating electorate from putting a cross against him. His biggest asset seems to be his wife, starkly contrasting with the incumbent first lady.

Karol Nawrocki, formally a “civic” candidate, but effectively avidly supported by PiS. Nearly unknown a few months ago, enjoys support in polls a few percentage points lower than the party backing him. Apparently not a bright spark, lacks clear opinions on many issues, when asked directly, gives evasive answers. If he does not make it to the run-off, which is conceivable, a major reshuffle in Polish politics might be in the offing.

Sławomir Mentzen, burnt and bruised after his defeat in the parliamentary election in 2023, has learnt from mistakes made then. He ousted madcaps such as Grzegorz Braun and Janusz Korwin-Mikke from Konfederosja and now his party has a façade of a civilised right-wing grouping. Beware though, he and his cronies remain pernicious. In polls he has recently caught up with Mr Nawrocki, now they go neck in neck. The hideous bloke is less likely to win the election than the PiS-backed candidate, but his victory in the long-term would be more detrimental to Poland.

Szymon Hołownia, a rising star of the presidential election in 2020, then a superb speaker of the parliament, currently is not fighting for presidency, but to reinforce his grouping, so that it does not fall below 5%. I somewhat regret never voting for him, as he deserved it. Sadly, the potential has been wasted. I hope before the run-off he clearly hands over his support to Mr Trzaskowski.

The two leftist candidates – Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg probably have cumulative support of approximately 5%. Left-wing electorate would rather cast votes for Mr Trzaskowski right away.

Other contenders are unlikely to get more than 2% of votes each, hence their participation in the race is rather for the sake of marking their presence in politics, rather than chasing the actual victory.

Odds of another post on the campaign before the election day are rather tiny, unless an unforeseen twist of action changes my mind and will prompt me to focus my attention on politics.