Out of the frying pan into the fire...

I managed to give up on politics for a month only. Time to revert to the touchy topic, this time approached from a different angle...

Jokes about fellow head of state's wife's infidelity...
Sitting down joyfully when guests are standing...
Another president standing in the rain without an umbrella over his head...
Setting out to eating when the host is speaking...
Calling several meetings to arrange the date of parliamentary election and not rulling out 30 October right away...
Inviting a former president Jaruzelski to a delegation travelling to Rome for JPII beatification ceremony and then declaring to think it over?
Saying in an interview to a newspaper he does not know if he would entrust Jarosław Kaczyński the mission of creating a government if the party Kaczyński runs wins the elections.

The list of major missteps of Polish president made this year only numbers seven slip-ups. Probably slated, bad, ex-communist president Kwaśniewski did not make so many blunders during his ten years in office.

First four gaffes are quite obvious, I will just take a liberty of commenting on the last three ones.

Date of election is not the biggest problem our attention should focus on. It should not be held just before All Saints' Day because it is the period when Poles get around the country and hence the turnout would be lower. And two-day election, as put forward by Mr Komorowski is a big waste of money. Politicians of PiS reject the idea by saying it makes room for irregularities (typical for the mistrust-driven party), I say if holding one-day election can save 50 million zlotys, this money must be saved. With our ailing public finances we cannot afford this. Over!

General Jaruzelski remains a big problem in Polish politics. It is quite clear that in his state of health he would not go there, even regardless of his atheism. But invitation is about protocol. Mr Jaruzelski, no matter what you think of him, repeatedly met with the Pope and after His death was a witness during the beatification procedures. Has nobody thought of it? Manners of Mr Komorowski remind us of what late president Kaczynski did in March 2006, when his officials mistakenly awarded Mr Jaruzelski a medal for his WWII gallantry. Mr Jaruzelski later sent it back to Mr Kaczyński and after all he, not the president saved face. Handling Mr Jaruzelski will remain a problem for Polish politicians for a while...

The statement in Mr Komorowski interview for Newsweek is much simpler. He, as a president, is duty bound to assign the leader of victorious party the task of forming the government. Those are voters, who go to the polls to decide who should be the prime minister, not the president. May he remember about it. If Kaczynski's party wins the election, he has no choice, just as Lech Kaczynski in 2007 properly, but to do it without a murmur!

And this is the man I voted for... Some eight months ago I exercised my right to vote, now I want to exercise my right to criticise! I did back him, because I realised there was no other choice. I knew he would be a mediocre president, but his mediocrity has gone far beyond my expectations. I now regret not voting for Mr Olechowski in the first round, but not regret voting for Mr Komorowski in the run-off. If time could be turned back, I would do the same, despite everything. I have observed what Mr Kaczynski and Mr Napieralski have been doing since the election and I know they do not make a reasonable alternative. Mr Komorowski is, pardon the expression, a 'lout', but does not turn the country upside down. Mr Napieralski, with his background and education not only does not have any makings for a head of state, but also for any minister. Can you tell me which ministry could he take charge of?

Who said before the presidential election we should vote for Komorowski if we did not want to be ashamed of our president when he goes abroad? I am ashamed of him not only when he travels abroad, but also when he plays host to foreign guests in Poland. Jarosław Kaczyński would not make all those blunders, but on the other hand many of those meeting Mr Komorowski attended would not have taken place. Foreign policy, as pursued by PiS, consisted in not pursiuing it, or pursuing it selectively.

All in all I in my voting decisions I was guided by model of presidency and views, not by manners. Mr Komorowski's views fairly squared with mine, his unbiased presidency is a big step towards in comparison to his what his precedessor did. Unlike late president, Mr Komorowski could appoint a governor of central bank who was not his henchman, but was competent to take up that position. He has two economic advisers, one (Jerzy Pruski) has liberal views, other (Jerzy Osiatyński) has rather statist views and the balance is struck.

I was not that really ashamed of Lech Kaczynski, I rather disagreed with what he did as a president. I felt sorry for him. I knew he was not cut out for such office, he felt uncomfortable and stressed out between movers and shakers, who have never been his breed. He was a bit gauche, but his ineptitude rather evoked my sympathy. He was in a way one of us, he embodied our shortcomings, yet in most situations he was self-concous. Mr Komorowski, in turn, is overly self-confident and hence uncouth. A proper balance of self-conciousness and self-confidence is essential to behave well in all situations when impeccable manners are required. It seems to me Mr Kwaśniewski has had that knack, Mr Kaczyński and Mr Komorowski, although they are both proud to boast their 'noble' descent, simply lack good manners which should have been instilled in them at homes.

After all Mr Komorowski has messed with me much more within seven months than PO-led government managed to do within over three years. I have voted for both and I will be watching their doings.

On crosses, rants, presidents and would-be presidents

But before I dwell on the current issues my apologies to Adthelad. Regrettably, I did not find time to watch “The Trap” so understandably I cannot review it today. When will it happen? Hmmm… Pending…

I had a second busy week at work, but everything seems to indicate the pressure is going to ease up a bit in the coming days so maybe three evenings will be enough to watch three parts of the documentary, jot down some key points and remarks and then put it together and share on the blog with the readers.

From the beginning of the year weather has had many swings and has surprised Poles many times. This week’s stars were storms and downpours: one on Tuesday, another yesterday. If meteorologists are right, today we should expect a repetition of yesterday’s show. I have guests today, so there might be a bit of a problem, or a necessity to put them up overnight.

This week has been extremely hot in the politics. On Tuesday Poland witnessed an attempt to move the cross from outside the presidential palace. The operation was scheduled for that day, as an agreement between the scouts (who had put up the cross), the Church (cross is a religious symbol) and the presidential office (it is their premise) has been reached. Predictably, unrelenting defenders of the cross (excellent rant by fellow blogger Scatts, I fully back him) blocked the whole operation, the state gave in and the cross is still left outside the palace and a group of weirdoes are still guarding it. Many leftist and liberal commentators hailed the Tuesday events as the failure of Polish state. I partly agree, for the following reasons:

1. Poland is theoretically a secular state so this symbol should not be present in a public space, in front of one the most important official edifices, but on the other hand it is no longer a religious symbol, it is a purely political symbol. The cranks who scuffled with the police on Tuesday called priests “communist secret service agents in disguise” and named scouts “Bolsheviks”, as befits truly religious Catholics. They pray during their sentry, but I wonder to whom – I do not think to God, this is the shrine to late president Kaczynski, I suppose. The cross is a political symbol (and no mistake?).

2. Why can a group of people appropriate a public place and a cross they didn’t even put up. In most countries such an illegal assembly outside a public building (unless there’s a reason for it, as it was during the mourning in April) would be gently scattered to four winds. Here, as the defenders of the cross point out with unhidden satisfaction, the System was totally HELPLESS. The System was overcome, the anarchy is victorious. But it is not the fact that this cross is still there that fills me with dread. I don’t care if there is a cross, two crosses, one thousand crosses and how many PiS-lovers chain themselves to them. There is a Polish proverb which goes roughly: “Let them bite your finger and they’ll eat your whole arm”. I am afraid once the state has succumbed to their claims, they will be impudently eager to break other laws.

3. And there is a reason why I am content the cross is still there. Bearing in mind how dogged its defenders are, the operation of moving it to a nearby church would end up with a bloodshed and those injured would be made martyrs. And sorry to say that, I would not swallow it. I heard double Dutch about martyrs who died in a plane crash (or rather were murdered by the System) and I would surely lose my temper if heard about a PiS-believer wounded or, Heaven forbid, killed by the functionaries of the System.

BTW – look at how Moscow looks today – the fog over the capital of Russia is the best evidence to support the hypothesis that Russians can create fog and they did it in Smolensk on 10 April ;)

I fully understand why Mr Komorowski is reluctant to move into the presidential palace. I would also feel uneasy if outside my house picketed a group of people who would call me a traitor or find me an illegitimate president.

PO once again proved to be too timorous to get to grips with some contentious issues. Two months ago I thought PO was in line with my moderate social views. SLD with its ostentatious anti-clericalism was too leftist for me. Today, if the only criterion for voting for a party were social views and I did not give a damn about the economy, I would vote for SLD…

A propos economy. What do you make of the plans of VAT hike? Am I one of the minority who think it is necessary and justified. In my perception of economic policy a balanced budget and low public debt are more likely to guarantee sustainable economic growth than low taxes which generate deficits. I have never been optimistic about moves of PiS-led government which cut taxes and other burdens when the economy was booming. Such moves are apposite when economy is in the doldrums to stimulate it, not when the growth is running at 5 or 6 per cent per year. It was like adding fuel to the fire and it contributed to current budget setbacks. Everyone knows Polish social security system is ailing, but is it a reason to cut its revenues (sickness benefit contribution) without cutting down on expenses? The same about taxes – taxation rates went down and at the same time government spending was boosted. What do I make – the objective of the government should be to generate budget surplus, through both raising taxes and retrenchments. Low level of public debt means government is unlikely to increase taxes and this certainty creates a really friendly environment for businesses. The move made by PiS in 2006 was very short-sighted and those who benefited from it surely were not the voters of the party.

Breaking news – Mr Kaczynski’s statement on the Mr Komorowski’s swearing-in ceremony.

For those who do not know yet, Mr Kaczynski was absent at that ceremony. One version is that he had to pick up his mother from a hospital (I wonder if he used a private car for it and paid for it from his own purse) and surely fortuitously arranged for the day when the ceremony was scheduled to be held, the other is, as deputy Mariusz Błaszczak had said, that Mr Kaczynski’s absence was obvious in the light of how critical PO politicians were about his brother. Hang on, is it not normal in democracy to be critical about someone else’s rule?

Now some quotes from Mr Kaczynski’s today’s appearance.

1. To zaprzysiężenie było wynikiem śmierci mojego brata i i moich bliskich (That swearing-in was an implication of my brother’s and my relatives’ deaths)
Rebuttal: If you had become a president it would also have been because of their deaths. If your brother was alive he would run for presidency, not you!

2. Sądzę, iż w dużej mierze został on wybrany prezydentem przez nieporozumienie, bo jestem przekonany, że bardzo wiele osób, które na niego głosowały zapateryzmu w Polsce nie chce (I think it was a considerable misunderstaning that Mr Komorowski was elected a president, I am convinced many of his voters do not want Zapatero-like policies in Poland).
Rebuttal: Mr Komorowski is too timid to take steps characteristic for leftist social agendas, but he was elected because many leftist voters put a cross against him to choose the lesser of two evils. As far as I can see around, most Poles want the cross to be removed from outside the palace, but they do their bits and do not protest, those who want the cross to stay there make the noise. It would have been a misunderstanding if you had been elected a president. Mr Komorowski did not lie about his Catholicism and has not used religion to wage a war against “enemies” (you love that word, do not you, it is one of your favourites). You told stories to Poles about your change and returned to the rhetoric of aggression after the lost election. If you had won, you would have done the same, it is natural for you. The result of recent election many Poles put stock in your change. Soon, when they realise you are just a mendacious man with lust for power, the support for your lousy party drops. And after all rows over the cross the one who gains will be SLD.

Over. Just a month ago I did not bear any grudge against PiS, its voters and acolytes, today I would hold back from declaring that. I think I lost my temper.

Cel uświęca środki – a message to my compatriots from the other side of the invisible barricade

I know it, the corporation has made me a sluggish blogger, the heat wave does not serve as an incentive to indulge in writing, so in the coming weeks you will probably find here only one post per week, published over the weekend. But do not worry, I will try to scribble something quaint for Polandian.

Recently I wrote here much about politics. After Mr Komorowski won the final battle I thought about giving up on that topic for a while, but I cannot make that break without having the last word. In the recent weeks I got caught up (yes, adthelad will say I provoked it and he will be actually right) in a discussion with Poland’s Best Political Blogger of 2009, Toyah. The main topic of his posts, published recently only on his own site (administrators of salon24 portal banned some of his posts and eventually he took umbrage and moved writing into an independent location) is not just politics. He is committed and ardent supporter of Jarosław Kaczyński and PiS. Some readers would surely accuse him of a big dose of bias in his blogging, so if you are one of them, glance at the box to the right, at the top of the page. We have democracy and it involves free speech, what means everyone should have a right to air their views, as long as they do it in a civilised way, do not insult nor libel anyone. But the at the heart of free speech lies the right to gainsay what your fellow men say and now I am going to exercise this right.

Toyah is a gifted and prolific writer, moreover he unfortunately is currently jobless, so he can spend much more time blogging than me I do not intend to make this post an endless string of polemics, so I will focus only on the posts published after the run-off of the election.

Over the past week Toyah has been in a funk after The Russian Bour had won the election, or, in other words 53% of manipulated voters had chosen to back the lesser of two evils.

In his post On winter in the middle of the summer he invokes a gross injustice which led up to the bad choice Poles made. Given the support for Mr Komorowski and Mr Kaczyński two months earlier he might claim Mr Komorowski has narrowly escaped failure. He writes about a wasted chance, but his post, as almost any other lacks an in-depth analysis, not of the support Mr Komorowski enjoys, but why so many voters hold something against Mr Kaczyński. Of course Toyah gives several reasons which boil down to manipulations plotted by the System, about a Bad Man, about a plan a deity from above follows out. In the comment thread one of the readers quoted Mr Tusk’s (probably) statement that Mr Kaczynski has a lust for power. Every politician has it, if they had not had, they would not have been into politics, the issue is just what means politicians harness to fight for power. Lemming, another active commentator and a graduate of my university briefly laid out why he voted for Mr Kaczyński. I fully accept his reasoning, the way we differ is how we understand what is good for Poland. We have common goals, the only difference is how we want to achieve them. Lemming would opt for aiming at those goals at all costs, I would prefer more compromise and reconciliation.

On Tuesday it turned out my request for a justification why Mr Kaczyński is the best choice prompted Toyah to change his plans and dedicate the inaugural post (after leaving the salon24), It is time for Jarosław, to me. Toyah is convinced my biggest dream is to exclude Mr Kaczyński from the public discourse for ever, for no specific reason, just because I think he should be denied the basic right to voice his views. In truth my view of Mr Kaczynski’s presence in politics is the same as in Toyah’s example of Mr Napieralski and Mr Kołodko. I simply think it would be better for Poland if he and his party did not wield power and nothing more! And I go along with Toyah who points out why Jarosław Kaczyński is a remarkable politician. If he had not been that unwavering and outstanding he would not have come back to power after being pushed out of politics in the 1990s. Moreover, given all assaults launched at him he keeps holding up well! I really regret Toyah refused to lay it out, step by step, in the simplest words, why Mr Kaczyński would be the best president of Poland. I may only wonder why. If it is so obvious, there is nothing easier than committing it to the blog, maybe he would even convert some other lost Poles. At the end he asks why people hate Mr Kaczyński so much if he is so wonderful. I would not bother to ask about those who hate him, hatred is not a commendable feeling and hardly ever builds anything, it usually destroys. I would ask why so many people are afraid of Mr Kaczyński. An Anonymous commentator speaks about the układ, he still believes it exists. Maybe it exists, maybe not, I am too small to answer that question, but is Mr Kaczyński big enough to crack down on the układ on his own? Or maybe conversely, would not they be more capable of destroying him? Many readers brought up the issue of the disadvantaged, those who did not benefit from the transition and who now are the target of Kaczynski. Yes, I agree, the discrepancy is growing, every week I see both opulence and poverty, they are worlds apart. This inequality is not shocking, it is indispensable in free-market economy, I personally cannot stand how the rich fail to understand the problems of the poor and how the poor refuse to accept the rich could have come into their wealth by playing their cards right.

A day later the blog had its official, belated premiere. In the post titled Right-wing dab hands Toyah brings to account the guilty of Mr Kaczynski’s failure. For Toyah Mr Komorowski’s presidency will be a punishment meted out by God – a good point, maybe this key will unlock the door… How did it happen that we let that woman become a first lady, he asks. Now a bit of malice – who would become a first lady if… you know what. Toyah reproaches journalists of Gazeta Polska for not giving due and sufficient support to Jarosław Kaczyński. The journalists pulled Mr Kaczynski up for what the contender had said about Edward Gierek (a patriot) or about Józef Oleksy (a middle-aged leftist politician). They saw those moves as a betrayal, for Toyah they were logical and justified, actually natural in his pursuit of power. Tactics needs to be changed and concessions have to made in order to reach the end. End justifies the means, Toyah only confirms it. I have to stand up for Mr Sakiewicz and Mr Ziemkiewicz. I have hardly ever agreed with their views, but I could not say about them what other fellows from my side of the barricade would say. They were not the acolytes of PiS. They and many other journalists, such as Mr Terlikowski, have their own views and at least stick to their guns, they are idealistic. Toyah is pragmatic – he thinks if a move can help win the election, there is no doubt it should be made. He highlights Mr Kaczynski’s intention: now it is time to win the election, later we will take back these words about ex-communists. I don’t know how it looks for you, dear reader, for me it is a fine example of duplicity and end-justifies-the-means approach to politics and I will not approve of it. I will not refer to the Wawel spat, but I will quote the last paragraph – he calls Mr Zawisza an enemy just because he pointed at Kaczynski’s inconsistency. Toyah took a leaf out of Mr Kaczynski’s book – the crucial thing is to find an enemy! Now I know why Kaczynski’s vision of Poland took his fancy.

Thursday’s post Men at work did not even need to have its title translated. I don’t know why Toyah wants God to get caught up in this little Polish cesspit. Maybe this is the punishment for "obeying" catholic teachings – is it in line with catholic teachings to accuse someone of murder if you do not have any evidence? Michael D. and I have asked Toyah to give us some details of that alleged murder. To no avail, words of murder are repeated like a mantra and if you repeat something several times, you will finally believe in it. This is how the myth has been created, it has been created from the very beginning. I know and even hold it against the government that circumstances of that tragedy are still unknown. I would love to see all doubts dispelled, but even then for Toyah and the likes it would still be an assassination.

And so we’re alive – Solidarni. The long story recounted. Tell about those people whatever you want, you do not try to deny the tragedy has brought them together. Once pushed around, ridiculed, degraded, they had guts to raise their heads and claim their presence in public debate. Since the tragedy they have shown how strong and united they are, proved their dedication and devotion. But there is a crack on the picture – why do they call themselves Solidarni? As a community they are united, but they are just a part of the nation. I would not like to destroy the new movement, but I am against the way they divided Poles – into the righteous patriots (themselves) and those who had not cried after the tragic death of the late president. This is unfortunately part of the rhetoric Mr Kaczynski has adopted – they and us, bad and good. There was a ceasefire for the period of the campaign but it was just a tactical move, soon it is gone. Actually ardent believers of Mr Kaczynski prefer that divide line – they need to separate themselves from the rest of the society who despise them. PO has supporters, PiS has ardent believers. I hope the new movement will grow in power quickly, quickly enough to mobilise German servants and Russian sidekicks to create the opposition to it. Hey, it is a daydream, PO voters would not give a damn. They will not join any movement, they can only go to the polls and thwart some plans… Maybe Poland is founded on lies and hatred, but the Solidarni are also full of hatred and I suppose it is a kind of revenge for all they suffered before. Anyway, there are people who hate Kaczynski, but there are much more who are afraid of him. I personally confess I am not that afraid, as long as dissenters are not his enemies I feel safe, but there was one moment after 10 April when a spark of hatred went through my head, but after a moment it morphed into anger. It was on 4 July, when Mr Kaczynski said his brother and other fatalities of the plane crash had died martyrs. Can anyone tell me why that tragic accident was a męczeńska śmierć?

Lord, listen to our prayers. The heat is getting unbearable so it is time to draw to a close. Can anyone tell me why Poles fall out and break friendships because of politics? I know many educated people, my peers, who are PiS-followers and guess what – it is not the reason not to be on speaking terms, we are still friends, we just avoid talking about politics! Political views should not tear us apart, but many hard-line supporters of both PO and PiS do that.

End justifies the means, not to a degree the world witnessed in the twentieth century, but small sins are surely acceptable in IV RP. As far as I know Jarosław Kaczynski did not accept his niece’s second husband, a son of one of SLD tycoons. Now Mr Dubieniecki is going to join PiS and soon might be one of the most prominent politicians of the party. Whenever the power is at stake it is surprisingly easy to change views.

Komentarze po polsku mile widziane.

A sigh of relief

Or not yet? Perish the thought! It was a close call - depending on the poll Mr Komorowski has the edge of two to seven percentage points over Mr Kaczynski.

This day was marked for me by a blend of fear and certainty. I somehow felt Poles have their heads screwed in and remember the rule of Jarosław Kaczyński and his deceased brother, but the certainty was balanced by fear. The fear that Poles would shrug off the election, go fr holidays, etc. Today in the morning I was queuing up for five minutes to cast a vote and people around didn't look like PO-voters. Then in the afternoon I cycled around the neighbourhood and stopped outside a few polling stations. I looked at those faces, I came back home, turned the TV on and looked at those faces and feared the worst, though hoped for the best.

The turnout, around 53 per cent, lower than two weeks ago, wasn't impressive, but majority of Poles decided to take the matters into their hands and choose a peaceful and future-oriented president. Now it's time for Poland to move ahead, without squabbling, suspisions, without playing dirty and putting into practice the old adage "end justifies the means". Yes, I still claim Mr Komorowski will probably be a mediocre president, but he is predictable and at least he guarantees peaceful, balanced presidency, based on mutual respect, co-operation, pursuit of compromise and mutual respect.

I wonder when the first protest is logded to the supreme court and I wonder what the supporters of Mr Kaczynski feel now. If you can share your emotions with me, leave a comment please.

The last bombshell

Yet before I have to keep my mouth shut, the last gasp of the campaign. Actually I wonder what happened in the last days that began to tip the scales for Mr Kaczynski? Was the final phase of Mr Komorowski campaign full of slip-ups? Have so many Poles realised he is an enemy, if he gets backing from “ex-communists”? Did Mr Kaczynski perform that well during the debate on Wednesday? Or maybe he won over some voters by saying comrade Gierek was a patriot? Was it a good move? Many of his voters still look back on the golden decade, which was the time of their lives – the system eased off, Poles felt a whiff or relative freedom and affluence. At the same time socialist economy fell into its knees, but did they care?

Having flattered those poor people who remembered 1970s as the time of prosperity, twin brother of the late president addressed students. A quaint idea, given that beginning of July is a period of long vacation in Poland and students generally tend to keep away for their schools. Despite unfavourable holiday season, Mr Kaczynski put in an appearance at the University of Warsaw, where he rolled out his agenda for students. Apart from reassuring he supported unpaid studies, even on two faculties, he brought up the same topic I raised in late March – unpaid internships. The candidate of Law and Justice claims all internships should be paid.

Maybe for some frustrated students the notion could be appealing, but let’s take a closer look. We live in a free country and unpaid internship contracts are nothing bad as long as both parties accede to the terms. A company gets labour force for free, a student gains experience and learns on-the-job. Any attempt to regulate it is doomed to fail, as a result many (poor) private companies would simply abandon their internship programmes.

This is an excellent example of a situation where something doesn’t function properly in the economy, but regulations can only make things worse. Offering remuneration for a doing a job, which means creating value added is a matter of decency. You can’t regulate corporate decency. After all market can function properly and companies which offer unpaid internship hire worse interns, because the better ones turn down their offers and take jobs where they get paid for it. Of course this applies as long as we speak about voluntary internships, not obligatory ones. Under some new regulations, every second-year student of BA programme at SGH will have to do an internship obligatorily. Thank God the internship I had after the second year of my studies wasn’t obligatory and wasn’t unpaid. I’d like to thank authorities of my school for taking away freedom and responsibility from students hands.

The vote is over...

No major surprise and two minor surprises – my conclusion after the exit poll results were disclosed. There’s a considerable discrepancy between the preliminary results – Mr Komorowski earned between 40% and 46% of votes, Mr Kaczynski between 33% and 36%. However, the gaps between the winner and the runner-up significantly vary. In TVN it was 12.5 percentage points, in TVP only 5.5 percentage points. How come?

The biggest winner of this election is Mr Napieralski, he has a reason to be proud of his result – around 14 per cent of votes means he has won his “to be or not to be in politics” battle. Today’s vote might a beginning of his real political career and may turn over a new leaf for the left wing of Polish political scene. I have to congratulate to Mr Korwin-Mikke as well. The fourth score proves Poles are sick of typical politicians and long for a pinch of straightforwardness – this fills me with optimism.

Mr Komorowski in his speech thanked Mr Pawlak and congratulated to Mr Napieralski. I’m sure very soon I’ll see or hear somebody reproaching him over not mentioning Mr Kaczynski, what will surely be perceived as lack of good manners. Mr Kaczynski did congratulate to Mr Napieralski, as both candidates will be trying to garner Mr Napieralski’s votes and did not forget to say a few good words to Mr Komorowski.

I’ve had enough of the campaign and I can’t say I’m really happy to have to keep abreast of this for the next two weeks. I hope the candidates will focus on substantive discussion on the future of Poland and no skeletons will pop up from any cupboards. The last post in “Polish presidential election in 2010” will be published on July 4th.

Change of heart at the very end

Maybe I had too much time to mull over my political choices, maybe I read and argued too much recently, maybe emotions take over when the mind receives too many signals… Maybe? Under the spell of all those information I have been bombarded with I changed my mind. The chances of the candidate I was leaning towards to become a president are close to zero, but the polls suggest that another candidate might win on Sunday, if only enough people don’t shrug off the possibility of recurrence of IV RP. So the tactical voting is my ultimate choice.

The feeling that has accompanied me for the last two or three days is fear. I read the best Polish political blog of 2009 and I finally got what I wanted. I have insight into the mindset of who journalists of “Polityka” dubbed “acolyte of Mr Kaczynski”. Other parties cannot boast about such ardent voters, other parties cannot count on support of staunch electorate. Just look at the “couldn’t care less” Poles who cast their votes for PO. They choose Donek, Bronek and others fellows not because PO is a great party, has a plan to turn Poland around, crack down on officialdom, build infrastructure, cut swelling budget deficit, invest in social capital, etc. At least two third of the people who’ll vote for Bronek will, like me, do it just to prevent Mr Kaczynski’s comeback to power. Many of them, like me, are scared.

I do not doubt Poland is the most important for Mr Kaczynski, but the importance of welfare of Poland and its residents might make him block the government’s reform plans. A strong president needs to put his foot down whenever it’s necessary. After all the ones who does not agree with him are not true Poles, legitimate patriots. My experience tells me Mr Kaczynski’s views can be summarised by five words: “a dissenter is a foe”.

Or not necessarily. Another variant is that if Mr Kaczynski wins, he will ease up and tone down the public discourse. The “change” campaign will carry on and the new president will stay mild, warm and ready to cooperate with the government. Meanwhile the good atmosphere will allow PiS to garner more supporters and win the parliamentary elections in 2010. I don’t know who would run the party after Mr Kaczynski has to lay down his membership card and who would become a prime minister then, but I hope they just will not try to tamper with the economy. Am I not going too far ahead???

I thought what “hostile media” wrote after the Smolensk disaster about bloggers who advocate PiS smacked of exaggeration. Now I see I was wrong; the best Polish political blogger and his mates from Polish political blogosphere are well-organised and determined soldiers. I wanted to use also the word “obedient”, but I pressed ‘backspace’ key and deleted it. They are not told what to do, they do it off their own bat, totally voluntarily. My diagnosis of their mindsets is that they have an idea, a clear and coherent vision of Poland. But on the other hand those zealots seem to me dangerous. They don’t try to be objective, to see nor appreciate the point the other side may have. They are glad to put up a fight, to hurl stones, just to win, end justifies the means. If this is how the presidency of Mr Kaczynski is going to look like, it will be a far belated eye-opener for thousands of Poles.

The admiration for the caucus of Mr Kaczynski leaves me speechless. Was the health-care privatisation case a lost cause from the beginning? Did the henchmen of Mr Kaczynski know he would have to apologise? Quite possibly, they wanted to highlight the problem and resort a pristine feeling humans are influenced by – the fear. Many PiS voters are lost in the modern world, so invoking the fear bears fruits…

Or maybe I’m blinkered, narrow-minded, I don’t understand what the damned lies on which Poland is built are, who is appallingly insolent, who laugsh in true Poles’ faces. Maybe I’m manipulated by the forces of evil, the System, the murderers of late president and his wife. If so, name them precisely and persuade why I should change my views.

Keep the faith and go to the polls on Sunday. Vote for a candidate who would be in your opinion the best president of Poland, this is what you should do. On Sunday evening when the silence is over I’ll try to comment on the exit poll.

The campaign hots up

The beginning of my fortnight-long holidays accidentally concurs with the run-up of the presidential campaign. This very unfavourable coincidence means I have to overcome the irresistible desire to make the most of free days by lazing away. It’s not the right time to lie about on the sofa and wait for the vote. Actually there’s nothing to wait for, the weather on Sunday is forecast to be awful, so my plans of having a barbecue and devouring merrily kiełbasa wyborcza fell through. Tough luck!

I had a feeling, I somehow sensed the week before the election would be exciting, unlike the previous dreary days. And indeed, pressure is on the rise, emotions are running high, something is going on, finally.

Mr Napieralski had a slip-up. His beautiful, but still hollow words were put to a test by one ordinary old lady. It’s not that easy to answer a question how to raise money to the state budget. Actually a question where the state takes money from might be inconvenient for most of the candidates. But after all it’s reassuring – it bears a good testimony of Poles’ rising economic awareness. On the other hand Mr Napieralski had a great performance during the Sunday’s debate; in terms of image – he spoke adroitly and a lot, but said little, like other candidates.

Mr Komorowski continued his never-ending series of gaffes. After his last slip of tongue Poland is still weighing its decision whether to leave NATO or not. Endeared by the scale and frequency of brick-dropping, Mr Kaczynski’s caucus prepared a compilation of gaffes Mr Komorowski had made. Enjoy the read.

I found for you an anthology of Jarosław Kaczynski’s “quote unquote”. Enjoy the read!

Warsaw court ruled today that Mr Kaczynski has to apologise to Mr Komorowski for saying that the fellow runner is in favour of privatisation of health service and take back his words. Mr Komorowski doesn’t have to apologise to Mr Kaczynski for calling him a liar. Mr Kaczynski can appeal against the ruling. I don’t know what he’s going to do about it, nevertheless it was a blow for late president’s brother. Is it going to tip the balance for Mr Komorowski? I’d be wary of speculating…

And the turnout. I really fear it, because as the latest news say, for younger Poles holidays are more important than casting a ballot. If lying on a beach or hanging around anywhere else is more important than influencing the future of our country, I’m ashamed of my peers. Low turnout will be a catastrophe of Polish democracy – five years ago Poles were sick of tired of politics and we remember what happened. Today Poles want to have fun, but aftermath may be the same.

The recent polls show Mr Komorowski can get 48 per cent of votes in first round. The support Mr Cimoszewski has thrown behind him and today’s court ruling may persuade some voters to choose him or might give food for thought to those who believed Mr Kaczynski has changed. And last but not least – the run-off would set us back around fifty million PLN. Come to think of it – wouldn’t it be practical to save on the election?

Good time in bad times

In the previous post I tried to put my worries into a broader perspective and I strongly feel this thread deserves some elaboration.

On Friday, while damning the deadly heat I looked back on one of the coolest days of January 2010. On that day, despite all troubles I strongly and clearly felt under my skin this year would be exceptionally good for me. I had an intense inkling of bright days ahead, rosy time against all odds. I don’t know what prompted that unbidden bout of optimism, but it was the first time I felt such a wave of confidence and unfortunately it hasn’t happened since then. Next weeks and months brought ups and downs, luckily the latter prevailed. If somebody asked me if 2010 (hitherto) has been a good year for me, my answer would be positive. I achieved one roaring success, I did only one stupid thing (in fact I paid the price of trusting a fellow man and according to my rules I’m suffering the consequences of my own recklessness and getting over the loss), but the reason for me to be happy is that nothing bad happened. I wasn’t affected by any misery, I’ve been feeling safe, I could easily pursue my goals and broaden my horizons. Everything seems to indicate the second half of the year should be no worse than the first one, but beware… I wrote on this blog a few times the worst strikes us out of the blue. Whenever we take it for granted nothing bad can happen to us we lay ourselves open to mishaps. The very awareness of mishaps is what prompts us to take precautions to avoid them.

The paragraph above was on a micro level. I am anonymous man in the crowd, if you pass me by on a street you may not recognise me, I am a part of a nation, a group of people from different backgrounds, from all walks of life, with different social status and, what is the most important, with different problems. Now let’s ask the same question again – has 2010 been a good year for Poland / Poles? Here the answers would vary.

Sometimes (and more and more often as the time goes by), in spite of my sanity I ditch the concept that everything can be justified rationally and ask myself if there is a plan, a deity that looks at us from above, rewards and punishes human beings for their deeds and misdeeds. Was there a punishment?

Just look back at 2010 in Poland. It started with harsh winter. No matter if you like severe snowfalls and long-lasting cold snaps it hit you. How many times did you have to trudge through the snow, wait for a train or bus that didn’t come? How much more did you have to pay for heating your house or flat? Harsh winter affected our wallets, affected dynamics of Polish (and not only) GDP, but after all it happens once in several years and in comparison to what followed it was really unimportant…

In March I thought Poland was in the luck. Heavy snowfalls didn’t cause a flood because snow was melting rather slowly and the ground wasn’t frozen and could absorb litres of water. We got away with a flood, not for long…

Then 10 April came as a shock. A string of human errors, negligence and bad weather led up to the biggest tragedy in post-war history of Poland. Was it planned? No, I don’t mean if Russian secret services planned to assassinate Polish president and liquidate some other inconvenient statesmen. Was it a sign from providence? Should it guide us, prompt us to change? The tragic accident was soon built up with a myth of outstanding president who passed away in cursed Katyn ground. Was the ash cloud a sign of what once was called “God’s displeasure”? For me it was a sign, though not from the providence that we should not build our national identity on cult of death in tragic circumstances. A Pole should not be associated with a martyr. We cannot forget about our history, full of ups and downs, unfortunately the downs prevail, but isn’t is the opportunity to learn from our ancestor’s mistakes? Should we be more forward-looking and less past-oriented?

After the last bodies of fatalities of Smolensk crash were buried the rains began to fell and here we have another disaster – the worst flood in this millennium. Thousands of people lost their belongings and property, the have to pull themselves together and start a new life, from scratch. The flood gives room for fault-finding (who gave the planning permission?) and makes us wiser after the event. For how long, I’d ask. As an economist I also try to foresee the implications for the economy. At the moment there are no plans of budget amendments, but the deficit is one the rise. Temporarily rebuilding damaged infrastructure and roads may create jobs and stimulate demand, but in the long run it will bring it down. People, local and national governments will have to run up debts to finance the reconstruction and then pay it off. The money they’ll use to repay debts won’t be spent – won’t give someone else a job, won’t boost VAT revenues, etc.

Next Sunday we’ll go to the polls to elect a new president. I look at the campaign, at candidates and like never before I wish Lech Kaczynski was alive and could end his term in December. I don’t know anyone who was in seventh heaven when they heard the news of late president’s decease. I suppose there were few and far between such people. In truth those who didn’t like Mr Kaczynski remained indifferent, not elated.

Yes, I fear Mr Kaczynski wins the election. And I won’t be surprised if it happens. If nothing changes during the coming week no candidate stands a chance to win on 20 June, so we’ll have a run-off in which some voters will vote for and many against. The funny thing that the target for both groups is the same candidate. Jarosław Kaczynski has a group of stalwart supporters and a group of adversaries, both are numbered in millions. Mr Komorowski’s plight will be fully deserved. Look at the list of his slip-ups. The caucus of Mr Komorowski could prepare a similar list of blunders made by Mr Kaczynski and his twin brother, but hey, Mr Komorowski campaign is a string of cock-ups, while Mr Kaczynski doesn’t appear publicly often and his campaign is an excellent example of nifty political marketing. Right now I’m sure no matter who becomes a president I won’t be proud of him. Mr Kaczynski will surely be continuing the aborted mission of his brother, Mr Komorowski has no makings of head of state who could be active in international politics. If he becomes a president we will just avoid rows between government and head of state and he won’t veto the laws Civic Platform would like to pass.

Over. If there’s something remarkable I could mention at the end, I read somewhere (I tried to find and substantiate it, but search engine let me down) someone’s vision, also dated January 2010. They said in April there would be a very tragic accident in which many official would die, in July there will be another national mourning and in September a reputable and famous Pole would die. For 99.9 per cent it doesn’t happen, but just in case I’m warning you in advance.

Problems always around

Everyone has them and it can’t be helped. For PO-voters these are mistrust, bureaucracy and limiting civil liberties, for PiS-voters conspiracies, manipulations, ookwud, lies, distortions, dependence. For PSL-voters privileges in pension system, for SLD-voters social welfare privileges. For one of the readers of this blog a key problem are gay rights. Everyone has different priorities, some are serious, other not even worthwhile. And finally we should draw a thick line between the serious and diminutive ones.

Look at what has been making the headlines for the last weeks. Actually there are two topics: accursed presidential campaign and the flood. Under the former ten candidates run for the office of the head of state, but only two of them stand a real chance to win. Many Poles are put on the spot and can’t settle on who to vote for. For many educated and open-minded ones none of the two candidates has making of an outstanding stateman. Many voters will put a cross against Mr Komorowski only to prevent comeback of Kaczynski’s presidency. A funny sacrifice – choose lesser of two evils just not to face a disaster. Choose a mediocre one just to fend off the mistrustful one. I made a decision to not to vote for Mr Komorowski in the first round. I have a certain vision of Poland and its president so I’ll vote for Mr Olechowski even if he’s going to get two per cent of votes.

The former is much worse. Candidates put on their shiny shoes and stroll around the embankments built of sandsacks. They come and go and the flooded are left with their problems, damaged houses, washed away belongings and no hope for the future. Whenever my thoughts are with them I discern how negligible everything what bothers me is. I have no reason to be unhappy – I’m healthy, quite well-off, study for taxpayers’ money at one of allegedly best schools of economics, I got a decently-paid job, my future prospects seem bright despite the wobbly labour market.

Yesterday I rode home a 709 bus and almost lost my temper listening to a conversation between two stupid teenagers for whom the biggest problem was what to wear for a Friday party. The generation pampered by welfare is unable to distinguish between real problems and what we make up whenever we don’t have real problems. Did they think about people whose houses collapsed in a landslide on Ursynów escarpment? Did they think about tens or hundreds of local residents whose houses in Jeziorki, Pyry or Nowa Iwiczna were flooded?

We help the flooded and the hype is over we forget, they have to carry on and their trauma lasts months or years. On Sunday TVN Warszawa crew was in Jeziorki to film houses under water. Yesterday they turned up to my school alerted by the students appalled by a recent scandal that had broken at SGH. I usually advocate the system which gives students a lot of freedom, but somehow it also creates anarchy, dilutes responsibility and secures jobs for the untouchable academic staff. The problem is that rule of law is not what can be observed at SGH. The untouchable do whatever they want, are not familiar with what they deal with and make flawed decision that wind up students and waste their efforts. That chaos has reached its ultimate limits – incensed students decided to contact TVN Warszawa and TOK FM to let the rest of the world know their university is run (partly) by incompetent people. Just try to imagine – you complete a course, pass exam in it and then you find out it has been deleted, God knows why exactly. Watch the footage I’m linking to above, read the article in today’s Gazeta Stołeczna. This is not the first time such things happen and not the first time we tell on our authorities to media just to claim our rights.

Beware, there are two sides of the story. On there is a totally incompetent Mrs Dean who cocks up everything she does and shirks responsibility for the mess she creates. Mrs Dean is accompanied by an incompetent spokesman, both have no idea what’s going on around, what’s in the curriculum and even where the heart of the problems lies. On the other side there are some other representatives of school’s authorities and student council who pull all-nighters to straighten the matter out – it’s always heartening. I deeply believe everything will shape up and students won’t have to get credits in many courses once again. The courses will be returned to their study documentations but the problem will actually be swept under the carpet. In private company someone responsible for such a mess would be fired right away. In a state-run university guilty of this mayhem won’t be dismissed, heads won’t roll as they should. We have plenty of untouchable, complacent people and “you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours” system under which pathologies thrive…

There’s always a glimmer of hope – reporters of “hostile” media want to pay attention to students’ problems. Unfortunately I couldn’t be present at the rally they filmed as I had to attend another event (look out for my name in Monday’s Gazeta Wyborcza, insert Gazeta Praca), but I wish I could have been there – there should be no indifference and no tolerance for professional misconduct…

Come to think of it – look at your tribulations, put yourself in a certain perspective, don’t get carried away, life’s too short to worry about trifles…

The candidates once again

This time I won’t write about financial tribulations of EU, social unrest in Greece or spectacular turmoil on financial markets. Politics is what attracts much more attention so if I publish a new list of potential presidents of Poland at least the readers will be more likely to have their say.

The tragic Smolensk plane crash has brought about a serious reshuffle on the list of politicians running for presidency. Acting president and parliament speaker Bronisław Komorowski has called election for 20 June, so the short campaign, run in shadow of the Smolensk disaster, will last less than six weeks from now (plus possible fortnight before the run-off). In March I compiled a similar list of candidates, however, the recent events have prompted an update as two important candidates, incumbent president Lech Kaczynski and SLD candidate Jerzy Szmajdzinski both died on 10 April.

The order might matter so to avoid bias I decided to review contenders in alphabetical order.

1. Marek Jurek – extreme right-wing politician, until 2007 a member of Law and Justice party, which he left to voice his protest against enacting too liberal abortion law. Famous for his strong conservative social views and infamous for paying homage to general Pinochet.

2. Jarosław Kaczyński – twin brother of late president Lech Kaczynski and chairman of Law and Justice. Currently he stands a serious chance to vie with Mr Komorowski in a run-off on 4 July. The decision to run for presidency after the death of his brother is said to be natural. At the moment it hard to determine whether his partisans will be resorting to hits below the belt in this campaign. It is equally difficult to say if he is bearing up after the bereavement. Mr Kaczynski is likely to capitalise on the posthumous glorification of his brother’s presidency and in his campaign he will surely emphasise the determination to continue the aborted mission of his brother and restore the ideas of IV RP. It has to be said liberal voters are aghast at the mere thought of Mr Kaczynski as a head of Polish state.

3. Bronisław Komorowski – a Civic Platform’s candidate for the office of president, acting president and speaker of parliament. After the Smolensk disaster he has to carry a heavy burden of performing all those functions. The public opinion centres on him and it’s very easy for his political opponents to pull him up for virtually anything. From not crying at the funerals, through clumsy and too pathetic addresses and speeches, up to taking independent decisions such as signing new IPN bill. Currently he’s an odds-on favourite, but nobody can take his win for granted. Many voters are likely to put a cross against him just to prevent the worst, in their view, scenario.

4. Janusz Korwin-Mikke – an eccentric libertarian politician. This year’s campaign is his fifth run for presidency. He enjoys a considerable support of some young, male, surely not pragmatic voters. Mr Korwin-Mikke is usually described as quaint and clever oddball and stalwart critic of any manifestations of socialism. I am personally sceptical of his high IQ, whenever I read or hear his thoughts it appears to me his view of the world is over-simplified. Unfortunately, the reality is not that straightforward and the world and economics are much more complex.

5. Andrzej Lepper – a rural chieftain who built his political career on pouncing at the inhuman capitalism, blocking the roads and wangled his way into the senior positions in government. Sentenced to two years and three months of imprisonment for sexual harassment, cannot run for parliament, but for presidency, why not. This sad inconsistency proves how lame Polish law sometimes is. Yesterday I heard he began his campaign on bazaar in Łódź. I’m slightly missing him and his outrageous party. Polish politics without white-and-red ties, sandals worn together with a suit, kurwiki, wheedled out fuel allowance and many other stuff lost some of its flavour.

6. Kornel Morawiecki – few people heard about that guy. Mr Morawiecki was a member of anti-communist opposition in PRL, in independent Poland he keeps on trying to reshape the country. Hitherto – to no avail. Views – rather nationalistic.

7. Grzegorz Napieralski – SLD’s candidate after the tragic death of Mr Szmajdzinski, the youngest runner (aged 36). Nominated as a contender on the spur of the moment might look off-putting for many centre-left voters as he represents the far-left fringe of SLD. He is known for his radical leftist economic and social views. On political scene he would lean towards co-operation with Law and Justice rather than Civic Platform, for many a careerist and a mate who tries to capitalise on leftist sentiments.

8. Andrzej Olechowski – formally independent candidate, backed by niche Polish Democratic Party. Mr Olechowski wants to change a public discourse in Poland and focus on substantive discussion and moving Poland forward. If I don’t settle on tactical voting, I’ll support him. I have five reasons:
1) He is the independent candidate.
2) His political, social and economic views overlap mine best = he looks like a truly liberal candidate.
3) He is an economist (PhD in foreign trade) so he would understand much better than Mr Komorowski the mechanics of Polish economy.
4) His vision of presidency squares with mine – reconciliation, support and respect are the main foundations.
5) His command of foreign languages is the best among the runners.
He seems to stand out in terms of manners, he has a vision and sets it above career.
This one was immensely subjective, indeed… To make up for the positive bias I have to add before 1989 Mr Olechowski collaborated with PRL secret services, but he never tried to conceal those bleak episode from his life.

9. Waldemar Pawlak – represents Polish peasants’ party and might get more votes than expected. Currently he holds the office of deputy prime minister and economy minister. Recently he makes the headlines as the author of revolutionary draft of pension system reform. I fully advocate his ideas (small pension benefit provided by the state, equal for everyone, to have a higher pension save on your own), but maybe it would be better if he stayed on where he is.

10. Bogusław Ziętek – unfortunately the guy doesn’t have an entry in English wikipedia. Mr Ziętek shows there’s some room to the left of Mr Napieralski. He is said to be a powerful a trade union leader, an ideal head of state of suppressed working class, but is the presidency about burning tyres and yelling in attempt to get a pay rise?

To be continued…?

From shock towards paranoia

The discrepancy between media coverage of national mourning and what I see in Warsaw is growing. I have written about it in comments on other blogs, so in short – I could not see mourners on the streets and in my school, people behave normally, talk about down-to-earth issues, if they mention the tragedy it’s only because another event was called off due to mourning. As the comments on sundry forums imply, those people who gathered outside presidential palace did it mostly for fun and to meet other people. After all a human being is a social animal – no wonder they came there to take photos, sing and share their feelings.

I would like to thank Russians here:
1/ for the sense of fraternity our nations have probably never felt,
2/ for president and prime minister praying for the fatalities,
3/ for a personal address to Polish nation,
4/ for help given to Polish prime minister and families who went to Moscow to identify bodies,
5/ for national mourning on a day which should be joyful for all Russians,
6/ for thousands of white and red flowers laid outside Polish embassy in Moscow,
7/ and for broadcasting Katyń film in first channel of Russian national television in prime time.

But is it a right moment to say a friend in need is a friend indeed?

I am also grateful to Polish officials who have decided farewell ceremonies and funerals will be held over the weekend. Holding it on working day would unnecessarily bring Warsaw and Cracow to a standstill.

I find it increasingly harder to put up with worshiping the deceased president, mostly by those ones who would slag him off just a few days ago. Once a clunky man making funny faces is now almost venerated, one element seems to be missing – a halo over his head. The Economist has published a balanced review of Mr Kaczynski accomplishments. Mr Kaczynski, who died along with 95 others, including many of Poland’s military and political elite, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10th, epitomised some of the best and the worst features of Polish politics. - they write. In Poland the profile of Mr Kaczynski’s is likely be angled. Until 10 April 2010 his presidency was controversial… After 10 April it has been idealised.

Meanwhile some bloggers allegedly cleaned up their sites what means they deleted posts which included adverse opinions about president. I didn’t, the full record of my critical views on his presidency is more or less here.

Somebody has also put forward to bury Mr Kaczynski and his wife on Wawel, among the most distinguished Poles. This looks as a misunderstanding. As a head of state he deserves a funeral and grave, but on Powązki Wojskowe, where many outstanding Poles are buried. To make it clear, I think none of Polish politicians would deserve to be buried on Wawel, even those whom I respect most should not be granted such privilege.

Poland’s civil society holds strong and the action to prevent it on facebook was supported by almost 10,000 people within a few hours. I support the idea to grant Mr Kaczynski a title of freeman of Warsaw – he was a mayor of the capital, his tie-ups with Warsaw were very close, but to name a new bridge or the national stadium is out of place for me.

NIE dla pochowania Kaczyńskich na Wawelu!

I know it’s controversial, but avoiding bringing up debatable issues will get us nowhere. Nowhere but to distortions.

Aftershock

The worst thing about such tragedies is that they strike out of the blue. No one has a tiniest inkling of what might happen soon.

Friday was extraordinarily dark and gloom. I even regretted I had taken a camera as I went with my parents to Janki. On our way back we could observe a magnificent cloud bank and mixture of mist and drizzle setting in. Strange was the weather, resembling rather November than April. Saturday was the fourth day in a row when in spite of good mental feeling my head was heavy as if was made of concrete. I rolled out of bed, did the morning toiletry, tidied up my room, turned the computer on, browsed a few pages, posted on comment on MD’s blog, switched the machine off. My eyes were a bit sore and I thought it would be better not to expose the to computer screen. I set out to read on a book (I’ll later review it here), but my mother went into the room, we exchanged a few opinions about my physical tiredness. I refuted arguments that I should redress balance between working and physical rest by saying lots of people have it worse than me. I recalled my thoughts and thankfulness for every day passing without a disaster. They crop up from time to time, unbidden. Then I turned the radio on, someone mentioned in passing Polish president’s plane crashed in Russia.

“President will be on crutches” – I thought. I turned the computer on, the Reuters agency reported a devastating death toll, the next news got only worse.

The first reaction is disbelief. The sudden death of so many officials, including the president is not what anyone would expect to happen. Then, as the list of fatalities was being announced, disbelief morphed into shock, the truth began to sink in.

After a few talks on the phone the next thought is what the Polish state has to carry on. Our institutions must not stop functioning. I felt deeply sorry for Mr Tusk and Mr Komorowski who had to act quickly in the face of tragedy.

The Polandian post on the plane crash gives three good comments about it. I tried to follow the English media at the time, they gave a more neutral picture and I could find out about what Polish media were afraid to inform about – who was killed there. Island1 and Scatts have a much more bystander’s view on the situation and could mention two things. Thank you guys for these valuable remarks.

It has to be said that Kaczynski was not a popular figure among our readers, but nobody would have wished such a sudden and appalling end to his political career.

I wished Mr Kaczynski would end his term in December and would rather be busy looking after his granddaughters. The departed president had a vision of Poland, the vision I disagreed with, but it was stronger and clearer that what other parties presented. And he was determined to put it into practise. Quite possible he was a friendly and chummy man, but in politics he was unable to shape his image and we perceived him as stand-offish and terse man.

1/ Nobody would choose this way out but it does mean Mr. Kaczynski will be remembered very differently to the way he might have been had this not happened

A word of wisdom – I feel sorry but I do not want Mr Kaczynski to become a national hero, he pursued Polish policy in a certain way, was respected for how he could defend his stance. He did not lay down his life for Poland. He was flying to Katyn to pay tribute to Polish elite who were murdered by Soviets and died in a plane crash.

2/ Excellent opportunity for Mr. Komorowski to secure (or not) his position as the next President of the Republic of Poland.

Not necessarily Scatts, Law and Justice is now in the soup, it lost many politicians, but many people might want to vote for a candidate who would continue a mission of Mr Kaczynski. And we have to keep fingers on a pulse. I feel sorry for everyone who lost their family or friends, but it is not a reason to give them a head start in elections.

I hope the investigation concerning the tragedy will be fully transparent, even if the truth for Poland is inconvenient – remember that black boxes might include records of conversations on board which may cast a new light on this accident.

Jamie also suggested in my comment box it was a black swan event. It occurred to me yesterday, the very disaster fits the definition, but none of the rules for a black-swan-robust world could prevent a tragedy. Apart from one, not listed – “don’t put all you eggs into one basket”.

My UK readers when they woke up on 31 August 1997 did not expect to hear the news that Princess Diana died in a car accident.

My US readers when they woke up on 11 September 2001 did not realise that day would bring the biggest shock in the history of their country.

And not as single Pole would imagine yesterday morning that so many officials would pass away in a few hours.

This event teaches us once again how to live with uncertainty and reminds us how fragile human life is.

And the winner is...

Civic Platform, as the first party in Poland, patterned itself on American parties and decided to hold primary elections, as an indispensable part of campaign. Those who voted for one of two candidates (Radosław Sikorski and Bronisław Komorowski) were the party members – almost 46,000 activists scattered around Poland who hold membership cards and pay monthly contributions. The members were allowed to vote on-line or via mail. The turnout in the election proved the party represents Poles well, or at least reflects their voting habits – only 47.47% of party members took trouble to cast votes.

The winner turned out to be the current speaker of parliament, Mr Komorowski. The more malicious commentators had pointed out he had been the only person to stand a chance to be nominated to run for presidency and the whole election had been just a dummy.

What must not pass unnoticed is the debate between candidates which was held last Sunday in the library of the University of Warsaw (yes, it was almost a week ago, but although the winter’s gone, I’m still snowed with manifold duties). Unlike in previous debates Poles had had the opportunity to observe this one was moderated by two PO deputies, the questions to candidates had been sent in by Internet users via Civic Platform’s website. The supporters of the party had come up with around 5,000 questions, out of which moderators picked seven Mr Sikorski and Mr Komorowski had to answer.

An ordinary viewer could have an impression that views of both runners all in all are in accord. The main difference to my eye was that Mr Sikorski wanted to be a stronger president and was more keen to exercise his powers, whereas Mr Komorowski pointed up the merits of maturity and style of presidency and in a few waspish remarks commented on traits of another candidate which could discredit him as a head of state. What for many observers, journalists and politicians from opposition left a bad taste was an assertion made by Mr Komorowski that only families who were able to raise healthy children could be granted a privilege to have an in-vitro treatment financed from state budget (Mr Sikorski thinks parents with fertility problems should pay for the therapy from their own pockets), because the state has a right to treat the new citizen as an investment. Many saw this declaration as an assault on equality, personally I think the speaker said what many people think and what is not at odds with common sense.

I can only add I’m pretty satisfied with the result. The “Polish presidential election in 2010” thread will be continued.

Polish presidential election in 2010

I voted in local council election in 2006, I cast a ballot in parliamentary early election in 2007 and in 2009 in European Parliamentary election. This year’s presidential election will be the last of my first, since five years ago I was under 18 and simply couldn’t vote. At the moment I can hazard a guess the coming months will abound in interesting twists of action on Polish political scene. Bearing this in mind I decided I should keep you up to date with all noteworthy events that will be taking place until September or October when the election is held. I’d like to begin this series of posts (later labelled ‘Polish presidential election in 2010’) by introducing and bluntly commenting on the profiles of some candidates.

Take a glimpse to the extreme right and you’ll behold two candidates who don’t stand any chance to win, but add some flavour to this campaign. One is Marek Jurek, known for his ultra-rightist views on social issues like abortion or homosexuals’ rights, commonly condemned for a visit he paid to general Pinochet in 1999. The second runner, whose candidacy is not as scary as of Mr Jurek is Janusz Korwin-Mikke, famous mostly for his ultra-libertian economic views and straightforward comments on public life. For the sake of straightforwardness it’s worth to be familiar with his ideas, but before embracing them please realise the world is a not as simple and unequivocal as he claims. Personally my common sense often tells me what he says is totally right, but a second after that a gauge at the back of my head goes on and reminds me that application of those ideas would end up with a huge disaster.

The guy who limbers up at the opposite side of Polish political scene is Jerzy Szmajdziński. Mr Szmajdziński is going to be a candidate of SLD in the coming elections. He is credited with being akin to John F. Kennedy. Yet, this is not a reason to vote for this guy. His party has been on decline ever since their election triumph in 2001. SLD in a current shape does not have anyone who’d have such a charisma Aleksander Kwaśniewski used to have. No one is going to enchant voters like he did and I don’t think revived figures like Leszek Miller or Józef Oleksy would help him win.

Another candidate who declared he was going to run for presidency is Andrzej Olechowski. He was a runner-up in presidential election in 2000. Now he runs as an independent candidate, backed by niche Stronnictwo Demokraktyczne. Currently he is the only liberal (in my definition both in economic and social terms) candidate and I’m going to throw my support behind him in the proper election. As journalists point out his chances are tiny, hence Poles don’t like such sort-of-noble men and he generally is unable to adjust to the style of contemporary politics, short of substantive discussion, full of mud-slinging.

Platforma Obywatelska has launched a new tradition and like in Untied States the party is going to hold primary elections to appoint its candidate. Those who stand a chance of being picked to run are Bronisław Komorowski and Radosław Sikorski.

Mr Komorowski, current speaker of parliament is a typical mild conservative. He clearly outlines his views and vision of presidency. As for the upsides I can say he is very even-tempered and practises what he preaches in private life. What I hold against him is that he doesn’t seem cut out for representing Poland in international politics. He would make a good speaker, minister, city mayor but lacks experience in the area of international affairs. As many commentators draw attention to, he is very similar to the current president in terms of biography and common touch (how to translate it into Polish?). Many Poles can identify with him what can strengthen his position.

Mr Komorowski is not my dreamt-up candidate, but still a far better choice than Mr Sikorski. The only strong points of current minister of foreign affairs are his international experience and command of foreign languages. I won’t vote for him, unless in a run-off as for the lesser of two evils, for two reasons:
1) He is over-ambitious. This makes him get too big for his boots and his ego plus unpredictability might ruin his presidency and make it not much better than Lech Kaczyński’s term and not necessarily devoid of blunders!
2) His manners are the crucial factor that has discouraged me from voting for him. A civilised politician does not say about his former colleagues from the party he had left “Trzeba dorżnąć tę watahę” (EN: those riff-raff should be put out of misery), doesn’t chant “Były prezydent Kaczyński” (EN: former president Kaczyński) on a public rally nor insults the incumbent president by saying “prezydent może być niski, ale nie może być mały” (EN: a president can be short but cannot be small). Can you imagine David Cameron screaming out merrily “former prime minister Gordon Brown” or Barack Obama shouting out “former president George W. Bush”? Is it up to the standard in a civilised country?
I bet Poles will not hold with one more thing. They will be reluctant to see an influential Jewish journalist as a first lady. Anti-semite sentiments are still strong in Poland and if they won’t tip the balance, some other arguments like the lack of tie-ups with Poland or flaunting the richness will do.

I’m not the only to raise reservations concerning Mr Sikorski’s candidacy. Mr Palikot who wrote on his blog what he thought about Mr Sikorski was almost ousted from the party, just for a few words of truth. I like Janusz Palikot. The chap has enough money to freely speak his mind, unlike other deputies on the make who weigh every word they say, fearing to lose their cushy jobs.

The incumbent president announced recently only those who have a political support of a big party are likely to win the elections. This might have referred to Mr Olechowski, but it sounds at least ludicrously as uttered by a man, whose twin brother is in charge of the second most powerful party in this country. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr Kaczyński backed away from running. He is quite tired of his role and might find some other activities more rewarding than being a head of state.

The last figure which should not be omitted is a Hamlet of Polish politics – Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz. Currently holed up in a forest, Mr Cimoszewicz officially doesn’t rule out running just to avert the second term of incumbent president. Meanwhile Mr Tusk doesn’t rule out Mr Cimoszewicz may take over as foreign minister if Mr Sikorski is elected a president. A really shrewd move by Mr Tusk would be however to ask Mr Cimoszewicz to run as a civic candidate. As the polls show, he is the only one capable of victory in the first round. He could get votes of most leftist and centrist electorate and unlike many candidates has few voters biased against him.

Anticipating your questions – no, I don’t care he was in communist party and in SLD. I don’t know why he joined PZPR but for sure he was a misfit in SLD, no wonder he decided to quit instead of sloshing about in that mire. I don’t mind his leftist views. In Polish political system a president’s main role is to represent the state and he has makings to do it well.

What I would wish on Poland until 2015 is Mr Cimoszewicz or Mr Olechowski as president and Mr Tusk as prime minister in charge of Civic Platform government for the second term. Such a cohabitation could help move this country forward. This scenario is however rather unlikely to come to a pass and what is much more probable is a smear campaign.