Has the election been rigged?

The exit poll results have a margin error of 2 percentage points in each side, which means if they showed a roughly 50:50 outcome, the actual result would, with over 99% certainty, be in the range of 52:48 in a favor of any candidate. Anybody claiming the exit poll near-miss victory of Mr Trzaskowski is the evidence of manipulation is a downright prat.

The first incidences of glaring irregularities, such as flipping the votes between the candidates have been spotted soon past the run-off. Today we know about several confirmed cases, but do not know whether they are just mistakes (how come?) or a part of a bigger scheme.

I was holidaying in the mountains when the deadline for filing protests was set (16 June) and eventually I have not filed one. Submitting yet another copy of a missive spread by Mr Giertych made no legal sense, while I lacked time to compile my own protest, which would need to be preceded by refreshing the competencies in stats I last used 15 years ago. At the end of the day, it would have gone down the drain anyway.

I the entire discourse many do not recognise the difference between the election result and the voting result. The former is about who has won the vote, the latter about the precise number and percentage of votes scored by each candidate.

If there is a bomb any everyone is preoccupied with discussing if it blows up, the best option is to dismantle it. I was therefore into recounting the votes, at least from polling stations where statistical anomalies were detected, however under strict conditions - by court employees assisted by representatives of both candidates' teams.

I have no hope the procedure would change the outcome. If I were to bet, I would guess Mr Nawrocki would end up with 50.7% of votes (vs. official result of 50.89% and post-recout result of 50.87%).

The rigged election myth is a conspiracy theory and all such theories should be nipped in a bud. As of now it seems there might have been some attempts on a level of single pollling stations to help tip the scales, mostly in favour of Mr Nawrocki. In the event of Mr Trzaskowski victory by an extremely tiny number of votes, this would have done the job, but with hindsight, turned out to be unnecessary.

Pieniny

Back from a nearly week-long foray into the Polish mountains, first non-business trip far beyond Warsaw since November 2024. Given my health-related tribulations, I feared how my lumbar spine and other vulnerable parts of body would endure the strain, but to my surprise, they got on well with it, much better with work-related sitting several hours a day. Over five days I cycled 120 kilometres and hiked 50 kilometres, with elevation gain of almost 3,000 metres in total, a quite something.

On the first day I took my new bike for a first ride longer than 50 kilometres. Velo Czorsztyn, a cycling trail around Jezioro Czorsztyńskie, at times is challenging, as one needs to cycle uphill. The section on the northern shore of the lake is most picturesque and flattest. All in all, one-third of the route is enchanting, the remaining kilometres are to be covered to reach the enjoyable spots.

On the second day I drove to Nowy Targ, to climb Turbacz, the highest peak in Gorce. The ascent involved change in altitude of some 650 metres and took me a bit more than two hours. I hiked with hiking sticks, which is an absolute game-changer. My arms were a bit sore after the hikes, but splitting the body load into four limbs brings a tremendous relief to the lumbar spine. The view from the top of Gorce turned out to be impressive, yet my expectations had been inflated by those claiming panorama of Tatry is break taking. It has not taken my breath away.

On the third day I took a break from major strain, drove to Nowy Targ and took a train to Zakopane, a town I had, shame to admit, never visited before. I considered getting there by public transport only, yet in provincial Poland combining two connections is a risky exercise. But even finding trains is a bit of an exercise, as Google shows you services you can choose from, but does not divert you to specific railway operator. As a result I got there by Luxtorpeda fast train operated by Koleje Małopolskie (PLN 7.20 for a single ticket) and returned by Polregio service (same ticket price). In the very town I have not understood what makes it a tourist hangout. Unless somebody explores Tatry mountains, there are very few reasons to spend holidays there.

On the fourth day the bike came into more intensive use, although the Velo Dunajec trail was shorter and easier than Velo Czorsztyn. The route runs also in a wilder area and is far more scenic, especially on bright, sunny days in warm part of the year when greenery is lush.

On the fifth day I did not have to get anywhere to start out a hike, as my lodgings was next to a tourist trail. I climbed to conquer Trzy Korony and Sokolica – two highest peaks in Pieniny. Although the hike was not long – less than 15 kilometres in total, it involved elevation gain of almost 900 metres, at times with steep ascents. Hot and humid air made this trip most tiresome of all.

After the recent election some have posited not to visit regions where Mr Nawrocki won. I am not into such forms of punishment. In Krościenko nad Dunajcem where I had an accommodation the newly elected president received 69% of votes in the run-off, while in nearby Szczawnica only 55%. I would hazard a guess by merely looking at locals around and on standard of housing, one could guess (with a margin error of some 10 percentage points) whether the local community was in favour of Mr Trzaskowski or of Mr Nawrocki. 

Worth also mentioning provincial Poland follows a different clock than large cities. On June evenings streets of Warsaw are full of people. The market square (note the excess concreted over area) in Krościenko nad Dunajcem at 8:34 p.m. was empty.

The foray was the first long-distance trip for my Skoda Octavia since November 2024. I strived to drive as economically as possible, however conditions (rain on my way to Pieniny, aircon on my way back, hilly landscapes along the way, traffic jams near Kraków) were not conducive. I made it there and back without filling up and the “low fuel” gauge went on after 967 kilometres. The car computer is accurate with respect to actual appetite for petrol. I am quite satisfied with it. In flat terrain, drier and cooler weather and lower speed (I drove 105 kmph on expressway) the engine consumption could drop even below 4 litres per 100 kilometres.

Not the outcome I desired

My scepticism expressed in the recent post harshly contrasted with a pre-mature victory claim made by Mr Trzaskowski. I went to sleep, realising the ultimate vote count would show a tiny gap between the contenders’ scores. I woke up at 3:00 a.m., peeked at the mobile phone to find foul language in messages and realised things were not going right.

Just like over 10 million of my compatriots, over the next days I was shaking off the shock. Most of us were aware the risk of Mr Trzaskowski’s defeat was high, but hoping for the best prevailed over fearing the worst. We need to go through a sense of mourning and learn to live with the choice made under rules of democracy. President in Poland has little power, his biggest tool is the right to veto laws submitted by a government. This partly explains why the election result reflected mandate of the coalitional government to pursue certain policies.

Given the cumulation of mistakes made in the campaign and clumsiness of the current government, with hindsight it turns out Mr Trzaskowski did not deserve a victory. Taking into account all circumstances, it appears the 49.11% score is pretty good. It stands for a percentage of Poles who do not want their homeland to be arranged by Mr Nawrocki, Mr Kaczyński, Mr Mentzen, Mr Braun and the likes.

The defeat should give food for thought also to ordinary people, educated, affluent, living in large cities. We live in a bubble, we know nothing about provincial Poland and its inhabitants, we are not capable of reaching out for them.

The world has begun to move too fast. Those who do not catch up with it and feel lost, lean towards the far-right parties, which do not distinguish between several shades of grey. They paint a black-or-white picture, much easier to grasp and more convincing to those who got lost. Besides, the right-wing have mastered the art of using social media to spread information and target audience with straightforward messages, often containing disinformation. In a world of people addicted to short films and not taking trouble to verify information they receive, the far-right have gotten the edge over centrist and mild leftist groupings. Poland is hence not a lonely island, with Trump’s victory in the USA being the best evidence for it. Democrats keep licking wounds after his victory, as despite their quite decent, but bland 4-year rule, ordinary people have turned their backs on them.

Over 10.2 million votes for Mr Trzaskowski, just under 370 thousand fewer than Mr Nawrocki scored, ought to bear a testimony of a voice of modern, tolerant and pro-European Poland, a voice of stalwart objection to Poland of right-wing politicians’ dreams. We need to stand up for values we cherish and must not be passive if evil is done.

Off for holidays to the mountains soon, the next post in two weeks. 

We know nothing

TV stations have shown two different exit poll results: by Ipsos (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.30% of votes) and by OGB (Mr Trzaskowski wins, with 50.17% of votes). Surveyors of both contractors had to face a large percentage of refusals which additionally raises margin of error.

Over the last week my election-wise mood had its ups and down. Early into the working week I had hopes for a victory. By Friday, having listened to several people worrying and seeing a strong anti-Trzaskowski assault online and offline, I was despondent. Full of premonitions, I entered the silence period yesterday. I took a break from politics. Today in the afternoon I began observing leaking poll results on Twitter. They basically indicated both candidates were going neck in neck, with some tilt towards Mr Nawrocki’s victory, however gaining less than 50.5% of votes.

As of now, I am not over-optimistic. Exit polls might have underestimated Mr Nawrocki. If Mr Trzaskowski is narrowly chosen, PiS will call into question validity of the election. They have already laid foundations for their theory of rigged elections and I bet they will not fall back.

Have a restful night and keep fingers crossed for a better tomorrow.

Marching

I missed it on 4 June 2023, when I was in Wisła. I missed it on 1 October 2023 when I was in Italy. The third time must have been lucky.

On Monday morning many Poles woke up scared of prospects of rising popularity of extreme right-wing politicians. The rude awakening has not been belated. It mobilised the democratic electorate and thus the wind is slowly taken off Karol Nawrocki’s sails.

Odds of Mr Trzaskowski were raised by new facts on Mr Nawrocki’s past coming into the light, uneven performance of both candidates in the TV debate on Friday and Mr Trzaskowski superb performance in an interview with Mr Mentzen yesterday, contrasting with servility of his rival displayed on Thursday. If today’s march has anyhow strengthened support to Mr Trzaskowski, it was worth spending most of Sunday walking with over 100,000 fellow participants.

I feared how my spine and hips would withstand over three hours of standing upright or ambling, but I feel unexpectedly well (after an hour of rest). Vote wisely next week!

The presidential race in 2025 - first battle

After the introductory post in March 2025, despite keeping track of the campaign daily, I have not caught up with commentaries.

The rivalry remained lacklustre, until late April when a debate hosted by Super Express was held and during which Mr Nawrocki slipped his tongue to assert, just like ordinary Poles, he was in possession of only one dwelling. Soon it turned out he departed from truth and past the long weekend in early May the story of a council bedsit wheedled out from a senile man made the headlines each day. The scandal, predictably, has not led to any reshuffle in the polls, as stalwart voters of PiS easily gave credence an explanation of accusations trumped up by secret services.

The debate hosted by the “public” TVP, Polsat and TVN on 12 May, with record-long duration of 3 hours and 40 minutes was the weakest part of the run-up to the election.

On Friday before the first round it was quite clear the run-off would be necessary and which two candidates would fight a battle on 1 June 2025.

The first figures on low turnout by midday were disappointing and hinted at plausible victory of Mr Nawrocki. Rainy weather in late morning was to blame, however skies cleared up in the afternoon and percentage of voters who went to ballots by 5:00 p.m. was above 50%, 3 percentage points higher than in first round in 2020.

In late afternoon, leaking exit polls already indicated at tiny victory of Rafał Trzaskowski (1 or 2 percentage points) and large uncertainty regarding fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score.

Knowing turnout readings and leaked exit poll results mobilise some voters, I tactically voted late. I did my bit exactly at 6:03 p.m. Quite many people still visited polling stations in Ursynów, however most had already fulfilled their duties beforehand. The district of Ursynów reported a splendid turnout of 63.6% by 5:00 p.m.

The official exit polls results are not a surprise. Mr Trzaskowski triumphs, but has a long way uphill to reach 50% of votes in 2 weeks. Mr Nawrocki, the runner-up, is not far behind his rival. One of far-right candidates, Mr Mentzen, gets around 15% of votes, which is already disturbing. Who gets the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh score is a big unknown, but if indeed Grzegorz Braun had support of 6%, it is more than disturbing. The three right-wing candidates in total have scored close to 50%. This does not bode well for the run-off.

Before the we face that battle, a quick summary of winners’ scores from recent presidential elections:
2010: Bronisław Komorowski – 53.01%,
2015: Andrzej Duda – 51.55%,
2020: Andrzej Duda – 51.03%.

I believe in 2025 the trend will continue and a winner will have a near miss on a defeat. Do our jobs in a fortnight and by that time, enjoy the good news from Romania!

Contemporary manhood

Mulling over the causes of the recent relationship break-up and trying to learn from my mistakes I have recently pondered upon whys and wherefores of a male I am, I strive to be, or I am expected to be. A great pity one word to describe it is "manhood", which brings out connotation with being a human being, rather than "malehood", which sounds more gender-oriented.

In my journey I have come across an interview with Mr Jacek Masłowski, a founder of Fundacja Masculinum. Not an outstanding one, yet thought-provoking.

As it turns out, the core quandary of today's males is inability to define their manhood. They feel lost between conflicting expectations stemming from traditional role of a man (which have not been nullified) and modern model of manhood.

Women have partly set themselves free from patriarchy, men fall victim to it still, as most of them are lagging behind women and struggle to define their identity. Instead of being the way they wish to be like, they rely on social norms or other people's expectations which make up a lengthy list of dos and don'ts for a "genuine" male. In this maze of expectations men lack self-insight, cannot name their feelings, admit them, not to mention speaking them out.

As Mr Masłowski points out, drawing on his experience from several workshops run for contemporary males (average age of 40), they overly focus on meeting other people's needs and living up to their expectations. This is particularly visible in romantic relationships and to much lesser extent when it comes to contacts with children, parents, siblings, friends or in workplaces.

They end up losing themselves in pursuits of their female partners' expectations mostly to seek their acceptance. The common mistake made here is that a person to be accepted is not a person who they are. With good intentions in mind they lay deceit as foundation of romantic relationships and try hard to slide into it. Some carry on like this for decades, for others the endless struggle is debilitating enough to blow up their relationships.

Another problem Mr Masłowski elaborates on is the quality of males’ relationships, especially with fellow men. Here females, much more open to speak of their weaknesses and failures, prove their superiority which is beneficial to mental health. Men in turn still foster the primeval instinct of rivalry which prompts them to boast of accomplishments and build image of a powerful man who never exposes his frailty. Needless to say, this hardly ever squares with reality. The outcome is that men are plagued by loneliness.

Is there a fix for this? Mr Masłowski uses a metaphor of an armour. He asserts men are told to wear it all the time, although it is heavy and impractical. He posits men should be familiar with armours, but put them on only when necessary, an allegory I consider brilliant.

At the end you should ask if I practice what I preach. My contribution to the failure of my recent romantic relationship suggest I have not. I can only declare to strive not to repeat my mistakes in the future. When hanging out with fellow men, I am straightforward and encourage honesty, especially by embracing all signs of their frailty. I hope more of us, adult, but noy yet middle-aged men, realise we have been walking a dead-end street and it is never too late to turn back.

The black plates – a quarter of century later

Five years ago I promised to repeat the exercise and check how many of the vehicles snapped then would have survived. I cycled around the district on Friday, 25 April after work (the long weekend in early May could decrease chances of cars being spotted) and found out that predictably, most of the vehicles have gone. Some have not been witnessed for years, others (#2, #7, #8 I last saw back last years). Only 5 out of 25 are can be found in the same venues, on the same classic plates.

#11 – Seat Ibiza sits in a car park parallel to al. KEN, south of ul. Belgradzka. Time has not borne a brunt of the vehicle despite being parked in the open air and under trees. The car seems to be in regular use, despite its age of 27.

#12 – Skoda Octavia parked between grey blocks of flats by ul. Żabińskiego has bodywork in the same colour, yet the paintwork seems to be more affected by the elements of weather, particularly by sunlight. The leaflet under the wiper suggests the car is in occasional use only.

#18 – Fiat Seicento with a disabled driver’s card has been forsaken for a while and gets slowly rotten, occupying two parking spaces by ul. Dereniowa. Conceivably, its owner either is badly ill or has passed away and none of the relatives has taken steps to take the car to the scrap yard.

#19 – Nissan Primera sits near the intersection of al. KEN and ul. Belgradzka and looks to have remained in regular use for over 26 years, although not in pristine condition. Quite an achievement, since Nissans produced in 1990s had serious problems with corrosion of bodyworks and undercarriages.

#24 – Toyota Corolla, aged only 25 sits by ul. Dereniowa and definitely is in regular use. I pass it by nearly every time I walk back from the swimming pool and each time is parked in a different spot.

While meandering around the district, I found it difficult to spot cars on black plates. Being kept by one owner for 25 years is a rarity, yet the effort I appreciate. This time I snapped all cars I ran across along the way, regardless of their condition.

The silver Ford Focus parked close to E. Leclerc hypermarket, registered mostly likely in April 2000 (WZZ 796L was the highest number issued). Rust eats it up as it has done with most Fords manufactured in late 1990s and early 2000s.

The flash-yellow (adore the colour) Skoda Felicia Estate, registered in late 1999 is parked close to the intersection of ul. Indiry Gandhi and ul. Cynamonowa. Visually – in a perfect condition (except for the mud dirt). An ideal car for a pensioner to take a weekend trip to a działka. A pity it is not parked in a cosy garage.

The plume-violet Toyota Starlet is parked by ul. Stryjeńskich. It definitely is not in regular use, but every two or three weeks it changes parking lot. At first sight condition of the vehicle is far from perfect and quite soon it is likely to end up on a scrapyard.

For dessert – like a lottery ticket won – two Japanese liftbacks on one photo, taken by ul. Lokajskiego. A Toyota Corolla from early 1998 in a splendid sand-yellow lacquer and a post-lift Honda Civic from mid-1999. Both looking decently. I saw this Honda around neighbourhood on the road a few times, but Corolla does not seem to be driven frequently.

Ogrody SGGW

Early in April, the Warsaw University of Life Sciences informed of opening its green areas to visitors. Hoping that some nice recreational premises, akin to locked-up Natolin palace gardens, are finally available for wider audience, I ventured there on Good Saturday.

First piece of advice – if after reading this review you still decide to pop over there, do not try to get there by car. Apart from environment-related reasons, there is nowhere to park in the vicinity of the venue. I cycled there. To the right – approach the provost’s office – one of landmark edifice of SGGW campus.

Entrance to the recently opened gardens is just behind the building, through a narrow gate hidden between shrubs. One you walk past this and stroll down the marble stairway, to will behold the entire greenery area. A sort of tiny – isn’t it?

Once fully inside, you can take a trip of our lifetime, which will be a 200-metre amble around a dirty pond. No colourful flowers to behold, no birds singing, no other attractions. The place is shrouded in greenery and barely touched by humans and that’s it.

Having left the area quite quickly I cycled down the Warsaw escarpment to Wilanów and turned right into ul. Rzodkiewki, for the first time in my life I put my feet into that area and do not regret.

Having sneaking through posh part of Wilanów and having crossed ul. Pałacowa which runs towards the back entrance to the afore- mentioned Natolin palace I rode through empty fields. Still within boundaries of Warsaw, yet it felt like 20 kilometres from the capital in a rural back of beyond.

Heading home, I reach the northern end of ul. Gąsek, which is one of several spot in Ursynów where time seems to have come to a standstill some time ago. In a distance, a man, probably in his 70’s, walking briskly towards Powsin.

I am certainly in favour of keeping recreational areas open to everyone, yet boasting of it and making a grand ribbon-cutting opening was a bit over top in this particular case.

Road hogs

While ahead of the oncoming election politicians try to scare Poles with migrants whose influx would increase criminality rates, bad news is that migrants are already here and they already wreak havoc. In several low-paid professions migrants from poorer countries will need to fill the gap left by domestic workers reluctant to accept low wages. Such has been the case in all developed countries.

In Poland one of such profession is a “taxi” driver. I put the word which some time ago used to mean what it meant, since on the market spoilt by Uber and Bolt, the over-supply is composed of przewóz osób (literally “a passenger carriage”) and by innowacyjne taksówki (literally “innovative taxis”).

The over-supply of ride-hailing entrepreneurs has brought ride rates to dirt-cheap levels. Given that a taxi driver needs to buy fuel, pay insurance, pay for vehicle maintenance, earn for a vehicle’s depreciation (or rental) and get paid for an hour behind the wheel around the minimum wage, there is no chance a driver can make ends meet with all-in price below PLN 1.50 per kilometre. To minimise costs, they most often used “taxi” car in Warsaw these days is Toyota Prius, the oldest hybrid model, aged over 10, with some half a million kilometres on the clock, with LPG as the third propulsion. Behind the wheel – hardly ever a Pole.

Below the summary of what was happening on the streets of Warsaw over the course of last three weeks. The source of all information and photos are Miejski Reporter or Wawa Hot News 24 pages.

Saturday, 29 March
A Toyota Corolla driver beyond the borders of Warsaw crashes into a roadside tree. The car goes into flames.

Saturday, 29 March
Plac Trzech Krzyży. A Toyota Prius driver cuts in on another driver, causing a smash-up.

Sunday, 30 March
Al. Jerozolimskie, close to Blue City shopping mall. A Toyota Corolla driver rear-ends a queue of vehicles.

Sunday, 30 March
An intersection of ul. Bitwy Warszawskiej 1920 and ul. Szczęśliwicka. A Toyota Prius driver crashes into the other cars. Earlier that day he caused another collision, but he fled from the spot.

Sunday, 30 March
Exactly the same unfortunate spot. A Toyota Prius driver cuts in on two public transport buses.

Sunday, 30 March
Al. Jana Pawła II, a collision of 4 cars, including two ride-hailing vehicles. This time no info if any of the “taxi” driver was the culprit.

Sunday, 30 March
An intersection of ul. Instalatorów and ul. Rakowska. A Toyota Prius driver runs over a cyclist (a food delivery courier).

Friday, 4 April
An intersection of ul. Puławska and ul. Malczewskie- go. Two ride-hailing vehicles (a Toyota Corolla and a Volkswagen Golf) collide.

Sunday, 6 April
Ul. Łokietka. And watch out, this time a Toyota Prius driver was not a culprit, but was unlucky to be in a wrong place, on a wrong time.

Tuesday, 8 April
An intersection of Al. Jerozolimskie and Plac Starynkiewi- cza. A Toyota Prius driver violates the right of way and cuts in on a motorcyclist.

Tuesday, 8 April
An intersection of ul. Rakowiecka and ul. Boboli. A Toyota Prius driver also does not care about the right of way.

Thursday, 10 April.
Ul. Połczyńska. A Toyota Prius driver smashes into another Toyota Prius, which in turn rear-ends an innocent Opel Astra.

Thursday, 10 April
An intersection of al. 4 Czerwca and ul. Chrościckiego. This time Toyota Prius driver is not guilty.

Thursday, 10 April
Ul. Świerszcza. A Toyota Corolla driver causes a head-on collision with a Peugeot.

Friday, 11 April
An intersection of ul. Grójecka and ul. Wawelska. A Toyota Prius driver hits into a Hyundai.

Friday, 11 April
Most Łazienkowski. A Toyota Corolla driver collides with a lorry.

Friday, 11 April
Ul. Woronicza, A Toyota Prius driver, after colliding with another car, lands on tram tracks.

Friday, 11 April
An intersection of ul. Pilewskiego and ul. Ciszewskiego. A Toyota Prius driver fails to give right of way to a BMW.

Friday, 11 April
An intersection of ul. Ciszewskiego and ul. Rosoła. A Toyota Corolla driver also does not give a damn about right of way.

Wednesday, 16 April
An intersection of al. Jana Pawła II and ul. Nowolipki. Again, a Toyota Prius driver and the right of way violated.

Thursday, 17 April
An intersection of al. Jerozolimskie and ul. Krucza. A Toyota Yaris Cross driver hits a pedestrian.

 

 

I am not urging you not to take cheap taxis in Warsaw, but beware, as the risk of not reaching your destination safe and sound is elevated. Meanwhile, have a peaceful Easter!