Lumbar spine - a little crisis

After a major lumbar spine crisis in autumn 2024 my orthopaedist predicted such incidences would recur, given the irreversible degradation of my bones. The causes of the acute pain were eliminated and preventive measures, including strengthening muscles, to take the strain off the spine, were put in place. For many months, I could say I fought several battles for an active, pain-free life in a war which I will most likely lose. My aim is to defer the defeat by possibly many years, counting on a progress in medicine which would let a potential surgery be less invasive.

With some minor incidences of ache along the way, it all went smoothly until Saturday, 11 July. After the walk around the neighbourhood, which involved mostly standing upright for more than two hours, I felt a pain down my back, but took a rest, exercised a bit and chased it away. On Sunday, 12 July I forgot to take a towel to a swimming pool. I realised it in a locker room, but decided to carry on and return home wet, despite chilly (as for July) and windy weather. 

A few hours later I felt the pain which could not be exercised nor massaged away. It somewhat immobilised me, got so severe that I could not sleep at night. On Monday I started out an emergency procedure, i.e. making an appointment with a GP and any orthopaedist under my medical care plan to get an MRI referral, making sure my physiotherapist would be up to the task and arranging lifts to get there (for some two days I was unable to drive, nor to walk without trekking sticks).

Comparing the current incident, hopefully drawing to a close with the one dated September 2024, I notice numerous differences:
- 2024: I did not take any precautions, now: it occurred after months of taking preventive measures,
- 2024: I did have a lot of physical activity, maybe too intense, now: moderate, frequent, manifold exercising, including weekly visits to a gym with u customised workout plan devised by an experienced physiotherapist,
- 2024: the pain was developing for some 10 days, but I kept shrugging it off, hoping it would go away, now: my attempts to nip it in the bud went in vain and the pain knocked me down within 3 hours,
- 2024: the pain nearly immobilised and I could not sit (except for when I really needed to) for some 3 weeks or so, now: for one day I had problems with both sitting and walking, then I just could not sit for more than half an hour for a few days,
- 2024: I took a sickie for a week and then worked from bed for five weeks, now: worked from bed for a week,
- 2024: the very first symptom, with hindsight heralding the disaster was an acute ache when sneezing, now: it did not ache when I sneezed,
- 2024: strong opium-based painkillers did not seem to help (or without them I would have been screaming out), now: painkillers relieved the pain reasonably quickly (I have given up on them altogether after 11 days, reducing dosage over that time, as they remove the effect, not curing the cause).

I have broadly returned to most normal life activities, although I am waiting for green light for swimming. I had to call off a business trip planned for tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, as it could squander all my efforts to pull through.

I still don't know what sparked the passing crisis, but I find it hard to believe going out wet after swimming pool knocked me down so mercilessly.

Lesson of humility has been learnt. It was a terrible reminder taking care of myself might not be enough and callous days might come, no matter how badly I endeavour to avert them.

As good as it gets

While writing about the two previous romantic relationships, I kept track of ups and down we had had. When it comes to the ongoing one, in place since July 2022, no coverage of crises can be found here. I realised it recently, but cannot come up with the idea, why the numerous tribulations along the way have not been committed to the blog. I believe my friends have absorbed my squirts of emotions and what was talked over did not have to be put in writing to be gotten over.

One post inspired by a quarrel with my girlfriend was the one on the tendency to put things back. Today I detest procrastination even more after nearly a year of living under one roof.

Are we a perfect match? From scratch I could have doubts if we hit it off despite stark dissimilarities which at the beginning seemed unsurmountable, but eventually I decided to give it a try, making allowances for my negative perception, potentially skewed by a depression episode ongoing then.

We had our first crises still in 2022, including the most serious one in late November 2022. The notion was we were worlds apart. Then we began negotiations - a lawyer and a banker sat for nearly ten hours and brought their worlds together for a while. During those long conversations we have set some rules, yet divergences remain outstanding including some serious ones.

1. Children - I would prefer to have two, she at first considered remaining childless as a primary option, then persuaded herself to become a mother, yet to an only child. I realise she will be pregnant for nine months and by dint of pure biology she will be an infant's primary caretaker, therefore now the consensus is to have one child and then decide if we want a second one. I recently read the major cause of poor demographics are not childless people, but those sticking to one child only. How true...

2. Attitude towards money - I am rather thrifty, think twice before spending money and easily sacrifice current consumption to save for durable goods. With my minimalism I also make do without stuff which brings other people joy. She does not throw money about, has substantial savings, has never had debts other than already repaid mortgage, but on the other hand, she spends money with far bigger ease than me and at times holds it against me and accuses me of tight-fistedness.

3. Priorities in life - for me family, duties, helping others, work, spending time outdoors. For her - carefree life, work, sport, then family, but with a reservation she needs time for herself.

4. The daily life - for me business before pleasure. Duties need to be handled without further ado, once they get done, I can relax. I appreciate doing things on my own, like order and cleanliness. She fosters time to rest, while duties can wait and if possible, should be pushed aside.

Given the above there is a gap between us, yet there are couples who carry on broadly happily despite such differences. With similarities life is easier, with dissimilarities, there is room for complementing each other.

Should we split up? At such age (I'm turning 37 in December) it is not easy to find a reasonable woman, therefore the decision is between living a lonely, peaceful life and ups and downs of raising a family, any family. As I look around I see many people who have compromised and spend lives with companions anything but ideal. On the other hand, the major cause of divorces in Poland is not infidelity, nor violence, nor addictions, but a "mismatch of characters", a wide term used when couples are sick and tired of unsuccessful attempts to get on with each other.

I often wake up to ask myself whether I am living my life, whether I have not allowed by girlfriend to shape my life beyond the boundaries of my comfort and reasonable concessions inevitable in a relationship. I have fully embraced looking after a dog, which was a brand new experience to me. But her attempts to teach me to like lavishness or fancy eating have gone in vain. On Thursday I read a joke. What combo of factors is a frequent story behind a divorce? He did not change the way she wanted, but she has changed not the way he wanted. So true...

As we had a good streak during the summer, I planned to buy a diamond ring and pop the question during the trip to the USA. For health-related reasons none of the above plans has been followed out. With current ups and downs and uncertainty regarding future I have put those plans on hold. But back in August I told my friends at such age and after such relationship duration a man is faced with take-it-or-leave it dilemma.

On Monday I had a frank conversation with my parents. I broke the rule relationship tribulations should not be talked over with relatives. They have not had many opportunities to look at us, but turned out to be surprisingly insightful. Nothing new has been said then, but it occurred to me I have made a lot of mistakes in terms of not being assertive enough and not striking a balance between giving and taking. At such stage it might be difficult to make up for those mistakes, but after all, if we have built so much together, maybe instead of pulling it down, let's try to fix it.

Credit Suisse...

…has become a history. The demise of the legend of the European banking might symbolise a mini-banking crisis witnessed in early 2023. I deliberately underline its small scale, as comparing to the meltdown in late 2008, the current tribulations pose no major risk to the financial system. Nevertheless, the insolvency of the Silicon Valley Bank has reminded about terms such as bail-out, Chapter 11, deposit insurance.

The sixteenth largest bank in the USA had a quite specific portfolio of risky exposures to tech start-ups and venture capital businesses. Many of them no longer thrived as the pandemic officially came to an end, so online ventures had to wind down. Besides, several businesses could not withstand interest rate hikes to level unseen in the USA since 17 years. For one of the banks this turned out to be a recipe for a disaster, while the rest of the banking sector carry on. Investors indeed reacted to the collapse of SVB, but the sell-off on stock exchanges reflected uncertainty, rather than panic.

Credit Suisse going under has surprise nobody keeping track of the banking sector and the takeover by UBS is to ensure a soft landing to the financial system. The lesson to be learnt is to keep away from murky institutions, a label Credit Suisse had worked hard for. On this occasion I recalled being recruited by CS in 2017 and being turned down on account of exorbitant expectations towards my pay. Time has proven that deal was not meant to be nailed down.

The recent opinion of European Court of Justice on inequality of rights in case a CHF mortgage loan agreement is nullified also cast a shadow of doubt on stability of the banking system in Poland. In fact whoever panics is overreacting. The mortgages in CHF are in fact being slowly written down for nearly a decade and most of the burden has been absorbed. As tackling the problem was eventually spread over time, losses could be gradually absorbed by banks. Currently only some banks with the biggest exposures to mortgages in CHF might be in need of capital injection is the ECJ ruling (binding, unlike the aforementioned opinion), but the risk of a Polish bank being on a brink of collapse is low.

Investors feared the turmoil in the financial sector could spill over to the real economy, hence stock exchanges and commodities were in the red in March 2023. If you bet the markets are overreacting, than an opportunity to buy up underpriced assets has cropped up. Lower prices of crude oil and other commodities can also contribute to faster disinflation, which in turn is likely to boost economic revival.

The coldest winter since decades ahead?

The post title should not mislead you – I am not daring to publish a long-term weather forecast. Such competencies remain beyond my capacity and given my more pessimistic than optimistic look at the life, may they stay so.

While in recent years warm winter seasons, a clear hallmark of the global warming, filled us with dread and uncertainty, many hope the 2022/23 winter in Europe turns out balmy. The worries are spurred by cut off supply of natural gas from Russia which is used to heat dwellings in most European countries. The gas has not flown into several countries for weeks, however in the warmer season, when it is used in cookers, ovens, water heating and for industrial purposes, reserves remain sufficient for a while. But as soon as the autumn draws in, the demand for gas will bump up, displaying clear negative correlation with air temperatures.

Governments of several countries, including the Polish one, warn between the lines we ought to brace for shortages of energy inputs and some forms of rationing out. Experts advise to recommend lower interior temperatures in dwellings, offices and public buildings. A prospect of having temperature capped at +18C or +19C in your house or flat looms very probable, yet is not a tragedy. I prefer to put on woollen socks and a sweater rather than make any concessions to Putler.

The scenario of shivering inside dwellings is an optimistic one. In the pessimistic course of events, deficits of natural gas would be large enough to limit deliveries to industrial off-takers. In such scenario sharply decreased supply of several industrial goods would send inflation even higher, while production stoppages or shutdowns would lead to payment gridlocks. Problems would spill over across the entire economy.

Since the end of WW2 the European societies have never experienced austerity. Currently with energy crisis on all fronts, an advent of war-time-like austerity is genuinely likely. I fear this might cause social unrest, which in turn would prompt politicians to look for a diplomatic solution which would resume gas deliveries from Russia. This must not happen, you surely realise why.

Admittedly, the price to pay for sanctions imposed on Russia is high, yet necessary. It was naïve to hope Russia would not take any retaliatory steps. The uncivilised nation under Putler’s heel, fooled by turgid propaganda, would make a lot of sacrifices to rebuild the empire and to restore the sense of national pride.

Besides, we need to remember that Putler, currently cut off the flow of technology and luxury goods, is well on track to bring the Russian economy back to where it was just before the Soviet Union collapsed. The dictator is intent to step up in his pursuit of the great Russian empire. Reportedly, the Russian economy is shifting into the war mode, meaning men left jobless as a result of economic downturn would become conscripts, while factories will begin to manufacture armaments, to make up for the losses from recent months.

Bleak times lie ahead. I hope western politicians realise no concessions must be made to Putler and that NATO unity, if put to the test, must be fiercely and firmly defended.

Banking - no longer a land of milk of honey

The end of month. My employer, affected by several adverse external factors (the pandemic, low interest rates, excess liquidity on the market) in a pursuit of cost savings and switching into more automated solutions, is conducting lay-offs. The last day of a month are chosen to hand in notices, to shorten misery of those made redundant and minimise their payroll and severance packages. The laid-off will have it uphill in terms of finding a job in financial sector in which headcount is on decline. Those who are kept in have few reasons to be cheerful, since efficiency per employee must rise and automation of processes does not apply to those whose work is not repeatable.

The style of work in banking no longer resembles residing in a land of milk and honey. Before the financial crisis bankers would do overtime more or less often and received sky-high financial rewards. Today toiling away has become less spectacular, more mundane. To blame is the growing extent of regulation the industry is subject to. On one hand I praise measures put in place to prevent a financial collapse witnessed in 2008, on the other I grit my teeth when I focus on ticking off fulfilling requirements from regulators instead of concentrating on sheer analytical work. The burden of regulations generates additional costs to the industry, which additionally faces competitive pressure on revenue side.

If I were to change a job, a transfer within the banking industry makes no sense. All banks are under the same pressure, room for salary increase is limited given my earnings. I do not slog like a dog and have established myself a reputation with my workmates. Benefits of changing a job would not make up for starting building my value from scratch. The only option is hence to move outside the banking industry.

What could persuade me to change a job? At the present I do long yearn for more money, albeit with a prospect of raising a family and wanting to buy or build a house, dough would come in handy. The new occupation would have to let me develop my competencies and not be repetitive. It ought to be challenging, yet not stressful. I would love to feel what I do matters, which seems a rarity, if one works as a clog in a corporate machine. Besides, balance between time spent at work and private life is of profound importance to me.

A few years ago I thought I would find it hard to come up with the idea of what to do in life, if I had a plenty of assets and could live off the income they produce. Today, as I have grown mature, I realise I would spend my time and energy on charity or / and on semi-political or expert organisations, to strive for a better tomorrow. This would sadly likely bring letdowns similar to what I have experienced with Szlachetna Paczka.

Pandemic diary - week 1

The coronavirus pandemic is the biggest disruption to people living in the war-free and disaster-free parts of the world since the end of WW2. Once we endure it, it will become a history. Worth saving those days for posterity.

Monday, 16 March 2020

Cold morning. Jumped on my bike to a local one-day hospital to find out whether my mother has her visit, scheduled for today, cancelled. To my surprise, the centre operates normally, but who knows whether her eye surgery, scheduled in a week will be performed (update: it is cancelled until further notice).

At work things take a worse than expected turn. We switch into 10-hour working day and begin to pursue our banking state of emergency to ease distressed customers.

Tuesday, 17 March 2020

A 10-hour working day is just a theory. Disruptions in trade prompted businesses to act defensively to shield their liquidity, which in fact means many industries have run into a state of all-in payment gridlock. The scale of cut-off has risen well below my expectation. I miss a company in my lonely fight.

Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Finally my spirits somewhat lifted. I have shaken off the shock, which had been my reaction to how businesses had responded to harsh measures against the pandemic. At work we have tried out videoconferencing. At least it gives a substitute of a fellow man’s presence.

Day-time high of +17C, so I spend nearly the entire afternoon in the balcony with notebook on my knees, my skin catching sunrays. I knock off before sunset (only once this week) and go for a walk. The sight of groups of teenagers hanging around in the open air brings me down and so does the report of the daily death toll in Italy – 475 fatalities of the virus over last 24 hours. In terms of total deaths, Italy will probably overtake China tomorrow (update – it did); in terms of deaths per 1,000,000 citizens it has surpassed China several days ago.

Thursday, 19 March 2020

I wonder what impact the coronavirus will have on the housing market in Poland. Some analysts say after buyers shake off (i.e. a few weeks after the epidemy comes to an end) prices will continue to rally, especially with slashed cost of credit. I believe property prices are correlated strongly with macroeconomic environment and will slowly decline (property prices unlike share prices are rather rigid) for a few quarters. In the meantime the rental market has invented a niche – flats for rent for a fortnight quarantine – such ads are immediately removed by site administrators.

The president of the Polish central bank said today Poland’s GDP growth will decline to +2% y/y in 2020. Who is he going to fool? I predict a sharp recession, observing how businesses have grinded to a halt. I believe the central bank should not further cut interest rates, while the benchmark rate ought to stay at 1% only until the economic recovery is confirmed.

At work today from 8:00 a.m. to 8:30 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

Friday, 20 March 2020

There should be no delusion – everyone will pay the bill for the economic crisis which has just started. There is no point is hoping the government will absorb it. The government does not have its own money, it collects money in taxes. What the government can do is to:
1) try to distribute costs of the crisis for equitably,
2) defer payment of the bill until economy recovers.

Authorities of Warsaw have finally decided that since next week public transport will run according to weekend timetable. I have had enough of sight of buses running nearly empty or totally empty through Ursynów, unnecessarily emitting fumes and greenhouse gases and increasing wear-and-tear beyond what is necessary. A month ago I would bridle at somebody who would tell me in four weeks I would advocate using private cars (not shared cars, not taxis) for moving around town. I last drove out of the garage on Sunday (so I do not use the car more than I really need not) and move around on foot, by bike or by car, depending on distance and weather. Once the epidemy is gone, I will revert to praising public transport.

At work today from 7:30 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. (with an hour-long break for an afternoon walk)

21 March 2020

Listened to an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński at RMF FM. Listen to it or read it here and draw your own conclusions.

The presidential election, due in May 2020 need to be postponed, this goes without saying and does not need additional justification.

Today at work for merely 5 hours, to catch up with stuff which need to be ready on Monday morning.