Judgement day coming soon

An odd posting on a working day, prompted by the news about the upcoming worldwide disaster due this Saturday. We have survived many ends of the world, for the past few years there haven't been many such events. The most popular until now was the Mayan date of the last day, 21 December 2012, but recently it has been superseded by the closer one, 21 May 2011, as predicted by weird broadcaster and preacher Harold Camping, aged 89. The Family Radio he runs unremittingly spreads the news about the imminent judgement day and those prophecies have also reached Poland. The nearest billboard informing about the event can be found in Warszawa Jeziorki, near ul. Karczunkowska.

It says the Bible certifies it and we should cry out to God for mercy. For some of us it's too late...

I actually thought the news about such rare events as ends of the world are niche products for bored to death geeks, but the reality has taken me aback. Not only tabloids such as Fakt and Super Express informed about the event, but the sensation was also picked up up by System-controlled TVN24 and Gazeta Wyborcza... Moreover I heard people discussing the issue at work (another upside of open plans) and in a train. Two days ago I logged in to facebook and was hit by a question...


Finding myself totally unable to plump for any option I didn't tick any way of spending the time left until the end of the world.

Whenever I hear about such self-styled prophets, I ask myself what will they say, if nothing happens. Family Radio provides me with the answer...

What if May 21 ends and nothing occurs?

The Biblical evidence is too overwhelming and specific to be wrong. Christ's people can look with great confidence to this date because God promises His "beloved" He will not come upon them as a thief in the night.

God in His mercy has revealed the vital information needed to know the day. Judgment Day on May 21, 2011 will occur because the bible declares it. Anyone whom God has not saved will arrive at that day with no hope for salvation. God warns simply the "door will be shut."

I'm looking forward to seeing what they say when indeed nothing occurs. I've come up with a few versions:

a) someone tampered with the calendar and 21 May 2011 was not 21 May 2011,

b) the God gave us another chance,

c) we have made a minor error in our calculations, but beware, because the end is nigh.

Now a simple explanation why there should be no end of the world on Saturday. The end of the world will hit out of the blue, not when people expect it.

At the end of the day, whenever I hear such prophecies I'm afraid one day the mechanism of self-fulfilling prophecy may work. An idiot may try to fulfil the destiny, press some red button, launch a nuclear missile or do something equally dangerous...

Beware... of false prophets...

Forecasters got it wrong, again

If my memory serves me right it was around the middle of September when first warnings of extraordinarily harsh winter appeared in the media. According to some long-term forecasts (based of mathematical models) published round about two months ago, the coming winter would be extremely frosty and snowy in Europe.

Predictions of met offices across the world, all heralding severe cold in the coming winter were picked up by sensation-chasing media in Poland and abroad which launched out into scaremongering campaign. The fear of imminent harsh winter led to many misrepresentations, including the most widespread one, which credits Polish meteorologists with predicting the coldest winter in 1000 years on the assumption that the Gulf Stream has weakened… This shows how gossips are put about. One Polish meteorologist said the Gulf Stream held up well and did not seem to abate at all and somebody mistranslated it and sent out into the uncritical rest of the world.

Articles heralding the harsh winter give two reasons why such scenario is conceivable. Firstly, the alleged demise of the Gulf Stream, caused by the oil spill in Mexico Gulf. Not confirmed officially piece of information, disseminated by conspiracy theorists. The other cause is far more plausible, as we already experienced it last winter when most of the Europe was in the fetters of winter and during this summer’s heat wave. Those are disruptions in air circulation that may prevent the masses of warm air from getting into Europe and may draw in arctic and continental air from north and east.

I don’t remember much from the forecasts for the last summer, but according to meteorologists this September would have been cold (partly right) and rainy (right), October would have been chilly (right) and wet (wrong). The last decade of October was said to bring first snowfalls. And here forecasters parted with their luck. The last days of October brought beautiful sunshine and warmth blown in from over Sahara. Hot spell continued on the first day of November, when temperature in the afternoon hit +17C. The consecutive days were balmy – in the evenings on last weekdays temperature still hovered above +10C, yesterday day-time high hit +15C and even despite gusty wind one could feel pleasant warmth (no wind chill!). Today the weather was rather inclement, next days will probably bring gloomy and grey Polish autumn, but no winter on the horizon. But according to long-term forecasts, November would bring typical winter with snowfalls and sub-zero temperatures (at the present wide of mark). Well, those forecasts are fallible. Now let’s look at what Polish long-term predictions say about the weather in the coming months…

December – winter in overdrive, sub-zero temperatures will cause snow to linger, to boot Poland will be plagued by gales.

January – some thaws and hot spells will give us some occasional breaks between attacks of winters

February – dry and frosty, I surmise this means inflow of chilly continental air

And spring will come later than usual, will be cold and dry.

Funnily enough, German long-term forecasts predict early winter followed by… early and warm spring. I believe my western neighbours :)

According to predictions I’ve read this winter will resemble the last, 2009/2010, one, which went down in history as snowy and cool. Do two harsh winters in a row happen that often? Data for Poland do not bear out absolutely any correlation. How about past winters?

2009/2010 was remembered as cold (actually temperatures in December and Febauary were normal, January was very frosty) and snowy (not because of high precipitations, but because the snow didn’t melt).
2008/2009 was normal in terms of temperature of snowfalls.
2007/2008 was warmer than average with almost no snowfalls at all
2006/2007 was one of the warmest in the history and lasted from the third decade of January until the end of February
2005/2006 was cooler than the last winter and kept Poland in its grip until late March
2004/2005 saw a brief cold snap in late November and then proper winter hit around 20 January and refused to let up until mid-March.

First snowfalls in Warsaw were respectively on: 14 November 2007, 22 November 2008 and 14 October 2009. Winter has failed to turn up as early as in the previous year, but it seems unlikely that we’ll see Warsaw brought to a standstill by a layer of white flakes earlier than in 2007 and 2008. Time will tell. I want white Christmas and then winter may go away.

How about short-term predictions. If there are any prophets (of doom) among the readers, please mark your presence somehow. I have two questions.

1. On 9 November stocks of Warsaw Stock Exchange will be floated on… Warsaw Stock Exchange. They were offered for 43 PLN per share and after reading “The Intelligent Investor” and having done a brief research, I deemed them to be overvalued and settled on not subscribing for them. Then it turned out the demand from institutional investors had surpassed 25 times supply. What will the open price on Tuesday be? Will it fetch profits to subscribers?

Update, 10 November. Open price was 50.75 PLN (I do not regret not subscribing for GPW stocks. I still think they are much overvalued, but I'm glad the Polish treasury made a good deal on taxpayers' behalf, in the meantime I struck another, more profitable deal with use of money I would have had to freeze), close price was 54.00 PLN (ever-time high till now).

2. Bulgarian clairvoyant Baba Vanga is said to have predicted the outbreak of Third World War for 10 November 2010. Finally a prophecy that can fulfil quickly, I don’t have to wait until December 2012 :)

Update, 10 November. Not a WW3 in sight. But conspiracy theorist claim the puzzling California missile case might indicate the prophecy is fulfilling.

Good time in bad times

In the previous post I tried to put my worries into a broader perspective and I strongly feel this thread deserves some elaboration.

On Friday, while damning the deadly heat I looked back on one of the coolest days of January 2010. On that day, despite all troubles I strongly and clearly felt under my skin this year would be exceptionally good for me. I had an intense inkling of bright days ahead, rosy time against all odds. I don’t know what prompted that unbidden bout of optimism, but it was the first time I felt such a wave of confidence and unfortunately it hasn’t happened since then. Next weeks and months brought ups and downs, luckily the latter prevailed. If somebody asked me if 2010 (hitherto) has been a good year for me, my answer would be positive. I achieved one roaring success, I did only one stupid thing (in fact I paid the price of trusting a fellow man and according to my rules I’m suffering the consequences of my own recklessness and getting over the loss), but the reason for me to be happy is that nothing bad happened. I wasn’t affected by any misery, I’ve been feeling safe, I could easily pursue my goals and broaden my horizons. Everything seems to indicate the second half of the year should be no worse than the first one, but beware… I wrote on this blog a few times the worst strikes us out of the blue. Whenever we take it for granted nothing bad can happen to us we lay ourselves open to mishaps. The very awareness of mishaps is what prompts us to take precautions to avoid them.

The paragraph above was on a micro level. I am anonymous man in the crowd, if you pass me by on a street you may not recognise me, I am a part of a nation, a group of people from different backgrounds, from all walks of life, with different social status and, what is the most important, with different problems. Now let’s ask the same question again – has 2010 been a good year for Poland / Poles? Here the answers would vary.

Sometimes (and more and more often as the time goes by), in spite of my sanity I ditch the concept that everything can be justified rationally and ask myself if there is a plan, a deity that looks at us from above, rewards and punishes human beings for their deeds and misdeeds. Was there a punishment?

Just look back at 2010 in Poland. It started with harsh winter. No matter if you like severe snowfalls and long-lasting cold snaps it hit you. How many times did you have to trudge through the snow, wait for a train or bus that didn’t come? How much more did you have to pay for heating your house or flat? Harsh winter affected our wallets, affected dynamics of Polish (and not only) GDP, but after all it happens once in several years and in comparison to what followed it was really unimportant…

In March I thought Poland was in the luck. Heavy snowfalls didn’t cause a flood because snow was melting rather slowly and the ground wasn’t frozen and could absorb litres of water. We got away with a flood, not for long…

Then 10 April came as a shock. A string of human errors, negligence and bad weather led up to the biggest tragedy in post-war history of Poland. Was it planned? No, I don’t mean if Russian secret services planned to assassinate Polish president and liquidate some other inconvenient statesmen. Was it a sign from providence? Should it guide us, prompt us to change? The tragic accident was soon built up with a myth of outstanding president who passed away in cursed Katyn ground. Was the ash cloud a sign of what once was called “God’s displeasure”? For me it was a sign, though not from the providence that we should not build our national identity on cult of death in tragic circumstances. A Pole should not be associated with a martyr. We cannot forget about our history, full of ups and downs, unfortunately the downs prevail, but isn’t is the opportunity to learn from our ancestor’s mistakes? Should we be more forward-looking and less past-oriented?

After the last bodies of fatalities of Smolensk crash were buried the rains began to fell and here we have another disaster – the worst flood in this millennium. Thousands of people lost their belongings and property, the have to pull themselves together and start a new life, from scratch. The flood gives room for fault-finding (who gave the planning permission?) and makes us wiser after the event. For how long, I’d ask. As an economist I also try to foresee the implications for the economy. At the moment there are no plans of budget amendments, but the deficit is one the rise. Temporarily rebuilding damaged infrastructure and roads may create jobs and stimulate demand, but in the long run it will bring it down. People, local and national governments will have to run up debts to finance the reconstruction and then pay it off. The money they’ll use to repay debts won’t be spent – won’t give someone else a job, won’t boost VAT revenues, etc.

Next Sunday we’ll go to the polls to elect a new president. I look at the campaign, at candidates and like never before I wish Lech Kaczynski was alive and could end his term in December. I don’t know anyone who was in seventh heaven when they heard the news of late president’s decease. I suppose there were few and far between such people. In truth those who didn’t like Mr Kaczynski remained indifferent, not elated.

Yes, I fear Mr Kaczynski wins the election. And I won’t be surprised if it happens. If nothing changes during the coming week no candidate stands a chance to win on 20 June, so we’ll have a run-off in which some voters will vote for and many against. The funny thing that the target for both groups is the same candidate. Jarosław Kaczynski has a group of stalwart supporters and a group of adversaries, both are numbered in millions. Mr Komorowski’s plight will be fully deserved. Look at the list of his slip-ups. The caucus of Mr Komorowski could prepare a similar list of blunders made by Mr Kaczynski and his twin brother, but hey, Mr Komorowski campaign is a string of cock-ups, while Mr Kaczynski doesn’t appear publicly often and his campaign is an excellent example of nifty political marketing. Right now I’m sure no matter who becomes a president I won’t be proud of him. Mr Kaczynski will surely be continuing the aborted mission of his brother, Mr Komorowski has no makings of head of state who could be active in international politics. If he becomes a president we will just avoid rows between government and head of state and he won’t veto the laws Civic Platform would like to pass.

Over. If there’s something remarkable I could mention at the end, I read somewhere (I tried to find and substantiate it, but search engine let me down) someone’s vision, also dated January 2010. They said in April there would be a very tragic accident in which many official would die, in July there will be another national mourning and in September a reputable and famous Pole would die. For 99.9 per cent it doesn’t happen, but just in case I’m warning you in advance.

Three years left?

If you believe in the Mayan prophecy of the imminent end of the world, you’ll probably nod. The 2012 fad is visible all over the world, if you tap “2012” into your google, the results are likely to be divided into three groups: Euro 2012 (the imminent organisational disaster is within the realms of possibility), London 2012 and Doomsday 2012. The one projected to occur in three years is the last we will survive, unless some new manuscripts are found.

Do I believe in this funny theory? No, though there was a time when I was fascinated with it. Is there any reason why? In my humble opinion the end of the world will strike humanity out of the blue. Too much has been spoken about, too many people know about, mostly after the film “Doomsday 2012” was released.

For no apparent reason if people live in affluence the like to devise new problems. Such is the case with year 2012. There’s no other need to worry, so let’s instigate fear of end of the world. Some, like Patrick Geryl try to capitalise on the fear. The main author of doomsday theory is now organising a group of people who will survive the disaster and restore the human kind on Earth. This for me looks like a big scam. This guy might take away the money from those people who trust him and enslave them or set up a sect or something…