One swallow does not make a summer

President Duda’s veto to two out of three new laws overturning the justice system in Poland came as a shock to all participant of Polish political arena and to nearly all by-standers. PiS politicians have been left speechless, as they had believed a set of three signatures should have been a formality. Voice of the opposition was barely audible since they had not prepared speeches for the possibility of vetoing scenario.

Over nearly two years in office, Mr Duda obediently used to sign off all laws coming the parliament dominated by the party he owes his current position. For many months the incumbent president seemed deaf to doubts raised by lawyers and international organisations; only recently he called into question the amended laws on Regional Accountancy Chambers (according to opponents of PiS meant to facilitate overpowering local governments).

The recent double-veto, a painful blow to a grouping which raised Mr Duda to presidency was preceded by intense civic protests (of course those who took to the streets were descendants of communist secret service agents, thieves, traitors and other scoundrels), however I doubt thousands of people giving vent to their disapproval in major cities of Poland were capable of making the president change his mind. Most probably the veto was influenced by voices of people who are deemed to be authorities to Mr Duda.

Alternative theories say the whole veto story might be just a set-up clash devised by Mr Kaczynski or that Mr Duda has decided to finally build a reputation of an independent representative of executive power, not just a notary of his partisans from PiS.

By the way, the verbal clash between representatives of Mr Duda and PiS-run ministry of justice has been probably the biggest split in the crew of Dobra Zmiana since it has got hold of power. Beware though, the crack is not so deep to tear apart the faction which is in charge of the country.

This situation is a crucial reminder the office of president is theoretically independent from any political party and acts as a separate public functionary. In practice, as each of the presidents of Poland after 1989 won the election thanks to his political entourage, the common measure of independence is the number of draft laws coming from a president’s political comrades vetoed or number of draft laws put forward by a president’s political opponents signed off without a murmur.

I find it hard to assess drivers of Mr Duda’s resistance. One swallow does not make a summer, yet I am keeping fingers crossed for him as a constitution guardian. He would need to strain a lot and show a lot of independence to make up for two years of submission to his political henchmen and to erase the track record of signing off whatever comes around.

Off to Wielkopolska for the next weekend, so expect a new note around 13 August.

Donald Trump

Makes no sense coming up with a more ambitious title to this post. The US president-elect’s name stands for the sound of the world diving helplessly into the unknown.

After Mr Trump’s victory, headlines were hit by news of polls buggering it up and senseless questions “how come?”. Against what you are still told and regardless of slip-ups of both candidates, Mrs Clinton was bound to lose that battle, resulting in yet another one in a string of shifts in power aimed at capsizing the well-established, predictable, though at times seized-up machinery of liberal democracy.

I wrote on facebook on Wednesday it was the second such bad day this year (the first one fell on 24 June 2016, when Brexit referendum results were announced). The magnitude of US presidential election binding result, impacting indirectly all countries in the world, is far larger than of the Brexit referendum, which formally has been just an indicator of Brits’ opinions (now to be handled by the parliament somehow).

Fearful of implications of Mr Trump taking office? No worries. The upside of the situation is the habitual track record of various populists going back on their promises. Mr Trump’s silly waffle was meant to win him voters – words he was whispering to disgruntled electorate were music to their ears. In his wildest declarations he pledged to bring about a change deeper than the one Mr Obama had pursued. Before he is sworn in on 20 January 2017 he will get insight into intricacies of US politics and I believe the reality check will tone him down (in terms of knowing the ropes of politics he is incompetent, but has his head screwed in well enough not to spoil it all the way).

Having written that, I still believe Mrs Clinton, though definitely imperfect, was a far better choice for the United States and for the whole civilised world.

So what prompted the nation which has held foundations of democracy so dear to elect Mr Trump? He was the first prominent politician to have rejected political correctness; thus several voters perceived him as frank and straightforward. He was not a part of (discredited in eyes of many) political elite and scorned at murky establishment, a clique of spongers living off politics and pooling wool over electorate’s eyes for decades. He has struck a chord with millions of impoverished, aggrieved voters, victims of de-industrialisation, who indeed felt America was in ruins and needed to be lifted from misery.

“CHANGE” was the buzz word or Mr Obama’s campaign and a change is what Americans have longed for. Each change involves costs and benefits one should analyse before one opts for or against it. Majority of voters have chosen a soft change, or the lesser of two evils, however since the vote is indirect and in most states Mr Trump received the most votes, he was selected to become the successor of Mr Obama.

I do respect the choice made by US citizens who have exercised their right to vote and the election result, being the aftermath of electoral college votes mechanism in place. I am holding back from forejudging the presidency of Mr Trump. Before I revisit the topic, I am waiting for the story to unfold. The first public appearances of Mr Trump fill with hope he is not a lunatic and his policies will fortunately differ from the visions he outlined during the campaign.

Safety first

I cannot get the accident of president’s limousine out of my head. I would have probably gotten over the affair, had journalists of Rzeczpospolita not cast a new light on the circumstances of the accident. Findings the journalists have come into possession (probably from Opole prosecutor’s office which runs investigation on the smash-up) paint an appalling picture of a string of wrongdoings that fortunately have not had tragic consequences.

The key takeaways are as follows:

1. The notorious six-year-old tyre was rendered out of use and waited in a warehouse for being recycled. Since the new tyres were not in place (previous tyres had been damaged on 20 January 2016 and new ones for some reasons have not come in), it was decided to put in the worn-out tyres, as the limousine was badly needed to be roadworthy.

2. On 4 March 2016 when the accident took place, the limousine covered a 100-metres long steep, icy, stony slope uphill to carry the president directly to a ski-lift in Karpacz. The terrain should not have been trespassed by any vehicle other than SUV of the Mountain Rescue Services (GOPR).

3. On the way from Karpacz to Wisła, on A4 motorway, the driver ignored warnings from the vehicle’s computer of too low pressure in the tyre. The quoted reason for the negligence was haste to make up for a one-hour delay in president’s trip schedule.

4. The problem with pressure in the tyre could have been ignored for a while, had the vehicle moved at the speed no higher than 80 kmph (the special tyres assembled in VIP-carrying cars are designed to withstand up to 100 kilometres nearly flat, provided the car does not exceed a specified velocity), while the actual speed was above 160 kmph.

5. The column of VIP vehicles was followed by a civil car, driven by a social media expert from the president’s office.

A few heads have rolled immediately after the accident, however senior management of BOR who oversee security of the most prominent officials, shirk responsibility for all the negligence that put the president’s life in jeopardy.

Who is then to blade for the accident? As always, the long-gone nominees of the previous government. Current executives of BOR have filed charges to prosecutor’s office against their predecessors (its content is confidential, but we know the a procedure of tyre maintenance, allegedly wrongful, had been set up in line with BMW’s guidelines).

It is beyond all doubt those no longer in service:

- crept into the garage in which the limousine was parked and installed the worn-out tyres,

- drove the BMW up the icy hill,

- ignored on-board computer signals,

- raced 170 kmph on a busy motorway.

The way BOR headship explain away the mess they have given assent for is ludicrous. PiS have managed to fire and hire thousands of people. PO- and PSL-affiliated henchmen were kicked out of their warm chairs and replaced by PiS partisans, but they have not managed to review safety procedures (which they claim were faulty) nor to come by a spare set of tyres. The pitiable blame-storming also bears testimony of competencies of new management of BOR. An average car user knows after buying a second-had car or taking over a car from someone else, it is within their best interest to have the car thoroughly inspected. An average driver also knows a tyre should be replaced after five years regardless of tread depth, since mixture from which it is made loses its properties. Exceptions to this might be taken by those who drive calmly around town, but not those travelling at high speeds on motorways. BOR’s primary responsibility is to make sure the statesmen are properly protected. The 4 March 2016 incident proves they have buggered it up all the way, sadly.

Semblances with the Smolensk tragedy spring to mind naturally. In both cases the list of irregularities that led up to the catastrophe is long and in both cases the tragic end was the aftermath of many, not one, misdeeds, including the crucial one – attempting to stick to the agenda at all cost. It finally needs to be spoken out – people responsible for security of the statesmen should always set safety procedures ahead of agendas, schedules, delays as well as comfort and whims of politicians. The (yet another) skiing foray of the president shows lesson from the Smolensk tragedy have not been learnt. I wonder what else the investigation reveals and how politicians of the ruling party, good at denying evident facts, react to those findings.

ZaPiSki z czasów dobrej zmiany

Heard the purport of the controversial speech of president Duda in Otwock has been manipulated by the media hostile to PiS. I advise you listen the speech and shape an opinion on it on yourselves. Has Mr president gone too far in diagnosing the ailments plaguing Poland and in insulting his opponents? Is Mr Duda president of all Poles or of one particular party? Up to you to decide…

In February Mrs Szydło’s government celebrated first 100 days of work. Out of five priorities on the government’s agenda only one has been carried through.

1. The 500 plus child allowance programme has been launched and first payouts to parents will be made in April. Undeniable credit to the government for delivering the flagship project, however a truly impressive attainment will be making ends meet in budgets for 2017 and onwards without containing the scale of the program .

2. Decreasing retirement age to 60 for women and 65 for men remains in the realm of promises. Mr Duda promised to submit a relevant draft law and kept his promise, nothing beyond it.

3. In progress is the law setting up free-of-charge medicines for elderly people aged 75 or more. Needless to say the list of medicines will not be endless and only some medications will qualify for 100% reimbursement. According to some estimates, an average pensioner will save no more than 20 zlotys monthly thanks to generosity of PiS government. Wonder whether administrative expenses will be higher or lower than gains of all entitled old-aged citizens.

4. CIT rate cut to 15% for micro enterprises looms far on the horizon. A few PiS politicians brought up the topic, but right now the government is preoccupied with putting out other fires.

5. Raising tax allowance to PLN 8,000 per year also stands no chance of being accomplished in 2016 and feasibility of such move in 2017, given foreseen shortfall of budget revenues, is up in the air.

The festival of traducing Mr Wałęsa was rather short-lasting, but I am sure this has not been the last word. The game is up…

The former CEO of Bank Zachodni WBK has unveiled the Responsible Development Plan, a roadmap for Poland to catch up with the Western Europe and a set of measures to move Poland forward. It is beyond all doubt Poland badly needs a long-term development strategy, yet the strategy must be viable from cover to cover, i.e. it should identify what problems need to be overcome and with what means.

The diagnosis Mr Morawiecki sets is spot-on, but hang on… How do the notions underlying the plan square with PiS’ economic agenda? It is claimed public debt is a drag on Poland’s development, but PiS’ spending spree will sooner or later have to contribute to rising public debt. Demographics is bound to decrease labour force in Poland and to counteract it PiS deputies put forward decreasing retirement age and have raised schooling age from 6 to 7.

Besides, being familiar with specifics of some sectors (e.g. shipyards, automotive, transport, capital goods), I fear goals in the programme might be to beautiful to be realistic. Harnessing banking and corporate sectors’ over-liquidity to boost investment smacks of central planning. All in all, the plan makes a good impression, but I do not believe the government “knows better” than thousands of enterprises. Lending a helping hand and setting strategic objectives for the development should remain the core areas of government’s involvement in the economy. Let’s not go beyond them and let the free market do its job.

The cursed soldiers, for years forgotten, in the days surrounding 1 March were glorified more avidly than veterans of the Home Army (not to mentioned those out of luck to join the Home Army). I have not against commemorating victims of Stalinism, tortured and murdered between 1945 and 1956, they do deserve our remembrance, but the cursed soldiers are not a uniform group and historians (other than IPN-affiliated) vary in their assessments of cursed soldiers’ deeds after the Home Army was dissolved in January 1945. In 1945, as Poland became subjugated to the Soviet Union, warfare was officially over. Some people came to terms with the fact Poland could be at best a satellite country of the Soviet Union and under those circumstances began to rebuild the country from ruins, combat illiteracy, electrifying countryside, while others did not lay down guns. The problem I have with them is that they did not fight the Soviets, but they killed their compatriots, not only the ardent functionaries of the new systems in MO, UB, PPR uniforms, but also representatives of the ethnical minorities, Jews and civilians who did not resist the new order or benefited from it, e.g. peasants granted land as part of the agrarian reform.

Romuald Rajs “Bury” and Józef Kuraś “Ogień” are two most glaring examples of bandits venerated today. I would strongly prefer the whole truth is told about those people. Locals in Podhale or near Białowieża, especially ancestors of civilians killed by brigades of “the stalwart” put up the biggest resistance when IPN- and PiS affiliated , yet their voices are rarely audible.

Besides, come to think of it with cool head. Imagine someone hiding in a forest. What would they live off? How would the procure nutrition? How would they survive harsh winters in the second half of 1940s? Locals tired of six years of privations of war did not need to embrace the idea of helping out the forestmen by offering them board and lodging…

A tyre popped. Had it happened in an ordinary Pole’s passenger car, it would have passed unnoticed. But the tyre popped in a BMW carrying president Duda; consequently the vehicle went into a skid and landed in a roadside ditch. Fortunately, the head of state came of the accident safe and sound and after the voices of conspiracy theorists (assassination could not be ruled out) and vulgar haters faded, it transpired the tyre had been produced in 2010 and should have long been out of use. Jaw drops open. Within four months PiS have managed to replace most officials in ministries and state-controlled companies and launched several opening audits to reveal irregularities and havoc wreaked by their incompetent predecessors, but they have failed to inspect fleet of vehicles carrying the statesmen.

Why did this happen? The technical conditional of the vehicle is one side of the coin, the driving style of BOR being the other. Many doubt the column of vehicles, including with Mr Duda on board, was moving within the speed limit of 140 kmph, witnesses speak of the speed of 170 kmph or even 200 kmph. BOR vehicles according to the Polish law enjoy the status of privileged vehicles, just like ambulances, fire engines and police cars. This means they do not need to follow traffic regulations. Let’s have a glance at how the column of vehicles moved at National Road DK5 before turning into A4 motorway where the accident took place. 

I know the road well, its surface if flat, has not ruts, but the road is narrow, winding, hilly and on many sections visibility is poor. Does such way of moving around contribute to safety of Mr Duda (or whoever is a passengers) and other innocent road participants?

Last Sunday a supplementary election to the upper house was held in Łomża – Suwałki constituency. Anna Maria Anders, backed by PiS won the seat in the parliament, but if you bear in mind three facts:

1. Mrs Anders’ score (47%) was mere 6 percentage points ahead of PSL-affiliated, PO- and Nowoczesna-backed Mr Baginski’s result,

2. the turnout in the election was 17%, meaning only 8% of citizens entitled to vote cast their votes for Mrs Anders,

3. Mrs Anders had been endorsed by all prominent PiS politicians involved in her campaign, while PO, PSL and Nowoczesna had not lifted a little finger to support their candidate (shame on you, Mr Schetyna, Mr Petru and Mr Kosiniak-Kamysz),

the victory is anything but swingeing and should rather be interpreted as a warning sign than as declaration of strong support.

The VeniceCommission has issued a report on recent changes in law pertaining to the Constitutional Tribunal. The final document is somewhat toned down in comparison to the draft which had leaked to the media in February. The Commission blames both the previous and the current governments for paralysing the Tribunal and urges the Polish government to rectify the wrongdoing. Commentators keep on talking about the political compromise to be worked out to reverse the unfortunate legislation. This twaddle fills me with dread. There is no room for give-and-take, politicians from all parties present in the parliament have to make a concerted effort to bring the laws in line with constitution. The PiS government is slowly realising it cannot mess with everyone around. Hope the opposition realise this time for the benefit of Poland they will need to collaborate with the government, not to reach any compromise, but to restore the legal framework spoilt in two stages by PO-PSL, PiS and president Duda.

In praise of free speech.

Six o'clock in the morning. Functionaries of Internal Security Agency break down the door and trespass onto a flat inhabited by 25-year-old chap. Are we back in 2006 or 2007 when various people were arrested in the spotlight (some of them have never been proven guilty and acquited)? No, we are in luminuous times when enlighted Civic Platform is in power and civic freedoms are thriving. This statement was borne out on Tuesday when a guy who ran antykomor.pl site had his computer forfeited by secret services, just because he had run a website on which he had ridiculed president Komorowski.

From 2005 several websites were set up with just one goal - to make laugh of late president Kaczynski and his brother who wielded power as prime minister. Politicians of PiS and believers of the sturdy party expressed their outrage at the fact ordinary people wanted to make fun of clunky twins. Usually the key explanation was that all those people couldn't do it off their own bat and must have been inspired by an overarching, invisible force, called the System.

Times have changed. Since the Smolensk disaster it is no longer passe to admit to support Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his party. A group of people who declare they used to be drowned out for years can easily have their say. Antykomor was created in that time, in the surge of anti-PO movement. He did what many people had done during president Kaczynski's term. Let's face it - the current and the previous president have both been mediocre and no wonder such websites spring up. It is quite natural in the civic society, in which people have to have a right to give vent to their emotions.

I first heard about the site after its closure, so google cache memory was my only source of information on the content of antykomor.pl. I have to say I didn't find anything what would justify stepping into Antykomor's author's flat early in the morning, maybe except one photomontage on which the president appears to be compelling a drunk girl to do him a blow job.

This one was below the belt, but the guy should be wise enough to know there are boundaries that must not be overstepped. This still doesn't justify the forfeiture of computer, he could only be requested to delete offensive content and materials he hadn't had copyrights to.

Officiousness is worse than fascism. After the hapless action PiS scores another point and PO slides down on a slippery slope it has been for months of its feckless rule. Who the hell hatched the idea of detaining author of such website? It is absolutely normal in mature democracies that some people are dissatisfied with the politicians in charge of their countries and ridicule them. Think about all mockery at Nicholas Sarkozy, George W. Bush or Barack Obama. I think the article 135, paragraph 2 of Polish penal code which defines punishment for insulting the president (up to 3 years of imprisonment) should be overruled. Why should a president enjoy any special protection? He indeed is a symbol and deserves respect, but other people also deserve respect. So what's the difference between liability for insulting a president and insulting a prime minister. Should only the former be punished? Wasn't the legislator a bit ticklish? Isn't the situation in Poland ludicrous - people who accuse state officials of high treason and felonies go unpunished and the guy who pokes fun at president's numerous missteps has to play host to Internal Security Agents?

I was okay with making fun of president Kaczynski and I am okay with ridiculing president Komorowski (he gives us ample reasons for doing so) and I will be okay if any other president is mocked at, of course within reason, what means with offensive remarks, insults and lies. I was counting down days till the end of Lech Kaczynski's presidency, so why not do same with Komorowski?

Polish presidential election in 2010

I voted in local council election in 2006, I cast a ballot in parliamentary early election in 2007 and in 2009 in European Parliamentary election. This year’s presidential election will be the last of my first, since five years ago I was under 18 and simply couldn’t vote. At the moment I can hazard a guess the coming months will abound in interesting twists of action on Polish political scene. Bearing this in mind I decided I should keep you up to date with all noteworthy events that will be taking place until September or October when the election is held. I’d like to begin this series of posts (later labelled ‘Polish presidential election in 2010’) by introducing and bluntly commenting on the profiles of some candidates.

Take a glimpse to the extreme right and you’ll behold two candidates who don’t stand any chance to win, but add some flavour to this campaign. One is Marek Jurek, known for his ultra-rightist views on social issues like abortion or homosexuals’ rights, commonly condemned for a visit he paid to general Pinochet in 1999. The second runner, whose candidacy is not as scary as of Mr Jurek is Janusz Korwin-Mikke, famous mostly for his ultra-libertian economic views and straightforward comments on public life. For the sake of straightforwardness it’s worth to be familiar with his ideas, but before embracing them please realise the world is a not as simple and unequivocal as he claims. Personally my common sense often tells me what he says is totally right, but a second after that a gauge at the back of my head goes on and reminds me that application of those ideas would end up with a huge disaster.

The guy who limbers up at the opposite side of Polish political scene is Jerzy Szmajdziński. Mr Szmajdziński is going to be a candidate of SLD in the coming elections. He is credited with being akin to John F. Kennedy. Yet, this is not a reason to vote for this guy. His party has been on decline ever since their election triumph in 2001. SLD in a current shape does not have anyone who’d have such a charisma Aleksander Kwaśniewski used to have. No one is going to enchant voters like he did and I don’t think revived figures like Leszek Miller or Józef Oleksy would help him win.

Another candidate who declared he was going to run for presidency is Andrzej Olechowski. He was a runner-up in presidential election in 2000. Now he runs as an independent candidate, backed by niche Stronnictwo Demokraktyczne. Currently he is the only liberal (in my definition both in economic and social terms) candidate and I’m going to throw my support behind him in the proper election. As journalists point out his chances are tiny, hence Poles don’t like such sort-of-noble men and he generally is unable to adjust to the style of contemporary politics, short of substantive discussion, full of mud-slinging.

Platforma Obywatelska has launched a new tradition and like in Untied States the party is going to hold primary elections to appoint its candidate. Those who stand a chance of being picked to run are Bronisław Komorowski and Radosław Sikorski.

Mr Komorowski, current speaker of parliament is a typical mild conservative. He clearly outlines his views and vision of presidency. As for the upsides I can say he is very even-tempered and practises what he preaches in private life. What I hold against him is that he doesn’t seem cut out for representing Poland in international politics. He would make a good speaker, minister, city mayor but lacks experience in the area of international affairs. As many commentators draw attention to, he is very similar to the current president in terms of biography and common touch (how to translate it into Polish?). Many Poles can identify with him what can strengthen his position.

Mr Komorowski is not my dreamt-up candidate, but still a far better choice than Mr Sikorski. The only strong points of current minister of foreign affairs are his international experience and command of foreign languages. I won’t vote for him, unless in a run-off as for the lesser of two evils, for two reasons:
1) He is over-ambitious. This makes him get too big for his boots and his ego plus unpredictability might ruin his presidency and make it not much better than Lech Kaczyński’s term and not necessarily devoid of blunders!
2) His manners are the crucial factor that has discouraged me from voting for him. A civilised politician does not say about his former colleagues from the party he had left “Trzeba dorżnąć tę watahę” (EN: those riff-raff should be put out of misery), doesn’t chant “Były prezydent Kaczyński” (EN: former president Kaczyński) on a public rally nor insults the incumbent president by saying “prezydent może być niski, ale nie może być mały” (EN: a president can be short but cannot be small). Can you imagine David Cameron screaming out merrily “former prime minister Gordon Brown” or Barack Obama shouting out “former president George W. Bush”? Is it up to the standard in a civilised country?
I bet Poles will not hold with one more thing. They will be reluctant to see an influential Jewish journalist as a first lady. Anti-semite sentiments are still strong in Poland and if they won’t tip the balance, some other arguments like the lack of tie-ups with Poland or flaunting the richness will do.

I’m not the only to raise reservations concerning Mr Sikorski’s candidacy. Mr Palikot who wrote on his blog what he thought about Mr Sikorski was almost ousted from the party, just for a few words of truth. I like Janusz Palikot. The chap has enough money to freely speak his mind, unlike other deputies on the make who weigh every word they say, fearing to lose their cushy jobs.

The incumbent president announced recently only those who have a political support of a big party are likely to win the elections. This might have referred to Mr Olechowski, but it sounds at least ludicrously as uttered by a man, whose twin brother is in charge of the second most powerful party in this country. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mr Kaczyński backed away from running. He is quite tired of his role and might find some other activities more rewarding than being a head of state.

The last figure which should not be omitted is a Hamlet of Polish politics – Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz. Currently holed up in a forest, Mr Cimoszewicz officially doesn’t rule out running just to avert the second term of incumbent president. Meanwhile Mr Tusk doesn’t rule out Mr Cimoszewicz may take over as foreign minister if Mr Sikorski is elected a president. A really shrewd move by Mr Tusk would be however to ask Mr Cimoszewicz to run as a civic candidate. As the polls show, he is the only one capable of victory in the first round. He could get votes of most leftist and centrist electorate and unlike many candidates has few voters biased against him.

Anticipating your questions – no, I don’t care he was in communist party and in SLD. I don’t know why he joined PZPR but for sure he was a misfit in SLD, no wonder he decided to quit instead of sloshing about in that mire. I don’t mind his leftist views. In Polish political system a president’s main role is to represent the state and he has makings to do it well.

What I would wish on Poland until 2015 is Mr Cimoszewicz or Mr Olechowski as president and Mr Tusk as prime minister in charge of Civic Platform government for the second term. Such a cohabitation could help move this country forward. This scenario is however rather unlikely to come to a pass and what is much more probable is a smear campaign.