Behind the wheel, finally

It’s been a while since I last broached the accursed topic of domestic politics…

The leaks and then confirmed news that the most prominent back seat driver in this country is to join the government have brought a smile (or at least a smirk) on my face. It is not about looking back to 2006 when taking over by Mr Kaczyński as prime minister was a first drop in a waterfall that eventually led to early election in October 2007 in which PiS was defeated. It is about principles. In each civilised country somebody who keeps a tight rein on a state holds a position in a government (or another power-gripping one). Mr Kaczyński until now was the only decision maker to remain in a position of a (seemingly) modest rank-and-file deputy, thus shunning responsibility for all criminal deeds committed by PiS officials while in power.

Also the squabbles in Zjednoczona Prawica (beware, PiS does not have a single-party government, it has won the election in a coalition with two other parties and does not have majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament itself) and threat of conceivable split in the ruling coalition have filled me with some faith. After a while, I have dashed all hopes. Firstly, since situation in Poland is different than in 2006/2007. Too many Poles have either been bought off with social transfers or have been lifted into dignity by PiS. They are besotted well enough to endorse PiS, come rain or shine, so each piece of news putting PiS in bad light would be interpreted by them as work of hostile foes of Polishness. Secondly, since I want my country to be run well. If PiS and their coalitional partners concentrate on spats rather than wise lawmaking, it should be to the detriment of Poland. Yet, on the other hand, the more they focus on fighting for stools, they less evil they do to Poland, especially to the justice system.

One must bear in mind the next parliamentary election is due in 3 years. This gives PiS, Porozumienie and Solidarna Polska a lengthy streak to reshape (i.e. damage) Poland, especially to finish reforms which would turn Poland into a quasi-authoritarian country. They need to remember people’s memory is short, so whatever good they do now, will need to be reminded of ahead of the election, but whatever is screwed up, stands a chance to be forgotten by 2023. I suppose the next parliamentary election will be as free as the recent presidential election. I do not believe it will be rigged as the presidential election in Belarus in August 2020 was, but PiS will do their best to manipulate possibly many people to vote for them. 

What the government now needs to tackle is the rising number of new coronavirus infections. In this respect Poland is catching up with its neighbouring countries and Western European countries, where the number of new infections is already much higher than at the peak of the first wave of COVID-19. In Poland the number of new cases per 1,000,000 citizens is already much lower than in several countries where the situation has spiralled out of control, but since as a society we do not take precautions, their path is the one we will have to follow. We are now far better prepared to protect ourselves against the virus and know better how to cure the disease, but Poland no longer can afford a second lockdown. New restrictions, if imposed, will make our lives less convenient, but should be targeted not to smash businesses (though some economic impact is inevitable). The second lockdown is impossible for another reason – people are no longer as afraid of the pandemic (humans naturally fear the unknown, while COVID-19 is already a familiar pest) and will not be ready to obey strict lockdown discipline, as they did in March or April (unless police and army are to be sent to enforce the new rules).

One year into PiS in power

As the PiS government stages a splendid conference to boast of plentiful attainments of its first year in charge of Poland, I feel obliged to tack on some facts to remind of and underline the most recent success stories credited to this government and contributing to the outlook of blindingly bright future for Poland

Poland’s GDP grew by mere 2.5% in 3Q2016, falling short of economists’ consensus of 2.9% and being the worst readout since late 2013. The figure is just a preliminary estimate by stats office and has not been broken down into components, but judging by the trend observed in recent quarters, the drop in investments could have been the main factor behind the meagre expansion. Mr Morawiecki, Poland’s Development and Finance Minister (and deputy prime minister) claimed the slowdown was temporary and upheld his ministry’s forecasts of 3.4% GDP growth in 2016 (to make it happen, the Polish economy would need to expand by approximately 5% in 4Q2016 on simplifying assumption there is no seasonality, but by all accounts by more than 4%).

I have no idea why the former CEO of Santander-owned Bank Zachodni WBK belies reality. I only wonder whether he knows he is in the doghouse or so deeply believes the policies he pursues are appropriate. Whichever supposition is right, I am kind of sure with such figures budget deficit is likely to rise above 3% of GDP in 2016. Mr Morawiecki is somewhat right while assuring GDP is not the uppermost measure of economic well-being, but in the same interview he stresses importance of investments for the Polish economy. The problem is however that in the meantime investments are falling back.

Fortunately the bright spark of the Polish nation, an ordinary deputy Jarosław Kaczyński (balancing on the verge of paranoia) has found a scapegoat to take the blame for poor GDP growth – these are entrepreneurs linked to opposition who halt their business plans and give up on profits they could make just to spite the government.

Yields on Polish 10-year bonds have soared above 3.5%, meaning their price is the lowest since over 2 years. Partly to blame is the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election which led to more uncertainty on financial markets. The choice made by Americans is cherished by advocates of the PiS government. I hope they have noticed it has twofold impact of Poland’s debt service costs, via increased yields at which new government bonds are issued and via higher balance of debt denominated in foreign currencies (PLN has depreciated against major currencies recently).

This week the lower house of the Polish parliament passed a draft law reinstating pension age of 60 for women and 65 for men, thus reversing the retirement age increase brought into law by the previous PO-PSL government in 2012. While governments across the world raise the pension age and tackle inevitable demographic changes to sustain the proportion of labour force to those receiving benefits from the public purse, Poland takes a step back while the bill will be paid in the next decades. The only bright side I discern is that benefits for early retirees will be low enough to effectively discourage people from pensioning off.

When it comes to pursuit of PiS’ economic agenda, the fewer promises they keep, the better for the economy (not necessarily for social spending beneficiaries, especially multi-child poor families receiving the 500plus child allowance). Having the choice between two evils, I prefer they get busy with dead-end Smolensk religion whose cost (except for pain for families of crash fatalities) is thousands times lower than of “reforms” mentioned above. By the way, preliminary results of late president Kaczynski and his wife’s autopsy indicate a transport accident as death cause, the only thing in question is whether the plane capsized before hitting the ground.

Time passes by and level of absurdities around soars. The day before yesterday PiS politicians commemorated the 14th anniversary of Lech Kaczynski taking office of mayor of Warsaw. I hence put forward official celebrations of Lech Kaczynski:

- being born in 1949 (18 June),

- finishing studies in 1971, receiving PhD in 1979 and doctor habilitowany titles in 1990 (dates to be ascertained),

- getting married in 1978 (27 April),

- becoming a minister of justice in 2000 (12 June),

- being appointed the governor of Najwyższa Izba Kontroli in 2001 (14 February),

- being elected the president of PiS in 2001 (29 May),

- being sworn in as president of Poland in 2005 (23 December),

- telling a drunkard to go away in 2002 (spieprzaj dziadu) (4 November).

Also on Friday came to the light news of prosecutors from Gorzów Wielkopolski who have been chasing after Hanna Zdanowska, mayor of Łódź since February 2016 and accused her of loan frauds, allegedly committed in 2008 and 2009. Oddly enough a bank which granted a loan has not filed any charges against Mrs Zdanowska and the loan, as each and every fraudulent loan, has been repaid… This is one of first examples of PiS-controlled prosecutors clumsily attempting to sling mud at politicians of opposition.

On Friday I attended a conference during which one of renowned speakers told despite not just a flash in pan, populism will  wear down, as any other ideology. Neoliberalism and neokeynesianism have worn down and have had destructive influence on economies in last stages of their prevalence; the same path will be taken by populism. The only worry we should all have at the back of our heads is that damages inflicted to societies and economies by populists will be more painful.

But as the speaker said, we have to let things drift. Populism will not be eradicated by educated minorities. These must be masses, currently enchanted by populists that will have to realise they would have been double-crossed. It will take time and involve a price to pay, but after we persevere it, a better world might emerge. Or our civilisation might conceivably wind down irreversibly, a scenario which I have feared over the past months.

PiS-owska economic agenda

Judging by the timing of my postings and delay with which I refer to topical problems, it may seem I am slow off the mark. So instead of writing about mounting Ukrainian crisis, which gets closer to the verge of military conflict, I will refer to the headline-hitting, newly-published agenda of the leading oppositional party.

The document sets out to diagnose the current state of Poland as the utter downfall, to which Poland was plunged under the feckless rule of prime minister Tusk and names the current misery as “system Tuska” and then delineates how, when PiS headed by its leader, JarKacz, take over power, to lift Poland up from this misery and make the country thrive.

I am generally wary of all quick fixes – sort of easier-said-than-done solutions that would turn the country around within mere a few years, make it a land of milk and honey, inhabited by prosperous people, with expanding economy and well-run, efficient government. As a matter of principle, I give such diagnoses a miss. It takes little to make out what is wrong, it takes more wits to pertinently identify reasons why something does not work properly and the biggest challenge is to come up with feasible ideas to set things right.

I deliberately leave out what has been said by numerous critics of the agenda, i.e. PiS politicians promise to spend billions of zlotys, but fail to show how it is going to raise the money for: allowances for families, decreasing pension age, huge investments, health service, tax credits for entrepreneurs and in the meantime reduce public debt. I do not believe in policy of working miracles, because only a miracle could make ends of this agenda meet and I suppose no economically literate recipient of this document (or JarKacz’s speeches) would put stock in hollow promises as his whole story does not even appear to hang together. Even advocates of PiS policies admit widespread giving-out smacks of populism, but over-promising is an ordinarily used tactics even in mature democracies.

I will do my best to dissect all agendas of all political parties whenever they appear, and they should spring up in abundance before 2015 parliamentary elections. As PiS came up with its agenda first, its file came under fire first. I make no claims to be an expert in all areas of life, I generally know little about health service or military forces, but have some notion of economics and as a banking sector employee, am quite well-versed in its workings and limitations, therefore in my analysis I will focus only in the “Economy” section and drill down only some of those paragraphs I am capable of assessing.

The general diagnose on the current state of Polish economy (pages 73 – 74) is that it is stuck in low-growth trap, from which it can break out by unleashing the untapped development resources, with the help and co-ordination of the government, which should pro-actively engage in pursuit of economic policies.

The growth resources are simple and complex. The former are money Poland will receive from the EU funds and… (page 76)

Poza funduszami unijnymi maksymalnie uruchomimy znaczne środki własne i oszczędności przedsiębiorstw państwowych oraz wykorzystamy nadpłynność banków.

What are the „own funds” and how are they [PiS] going to make use of state-run enterprises’ savings and banks’ overliquidity? This all reminds me of acquisition of Lithaunian Mozeiku refinery by PKN Orlen in 2006, the purely political (buy it to spite the Russians) decision, taken, as with hindsight proven, without properly carried out due diligence. The refinery was purchased for 2.34 billion USD in 2006, while in 2013 PKN Orlen was weighing up whether to divest of the Lithuanian operations for 125 million USD. In the meantime, between 2007 and 2011 the oil producer recognised massive impairment losses, reflecting the fact the refinery was purchased well above its fair value. The business failure came to a pass also because, in the act of revenge, Russians cut off the pipeline running to the refinery due to a breakdown in July 2006, while negotiations regarding the purchase were still under way. This did not dissuade Polish decision-makers from pressing ahead with the purchase. Then, in 2008, Lithuanian railroads ripped off tracks running to the refinery, rendering it useless for months, as there was no infrastructure between the facility and the port in Klaipeda. The Lithuanian business began to break even in 2012. The estimated loss to the Polish taxpayers, counting in purchase of assets above their fair value, operating losses, costs of debt service and missed opportunities is estimated at 20 billion PLN, more than 2% of Poland’s general government debt. There are ample examples of flawed decisions on acquisitions made in the private sector, but there costs of management’s inflated ambitions (chief driver of such transactions) are borne mostly by the company’s shareholders, not by taxpayers.

I dread to think how the PiS government intends to crack down on overliquidity in the Polish banking sector. Is it going to coerce banks to lend money?

Zastosujemy także pozabudżetowy mechanizm inwestycyjny z zaangażowaniem aktywów spółek Skarbu Państwa, w tym spółki Polskie Inwestycje Rozwojowe i Banku Gospodarstwa Krajowego, a także specjalistyczne mechanizmy wspierania inwestycji, np. na wzór LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation – program Europejskiego Banku Centralnego) i programów proinwestycyjnych na Węgrzech.

Does the author know what LTRO consists in? The definition provided towards the bottom of page 76 does not closely match what I found through search engine. This is not an investment-supporting programme, but a liquidity-enhancing measure and is aimed at helping out banks having too many illiquid, poor-quality assets. Polish banks neither struggle liquidity squeeze, nor have portfolios of badly-performing assets, what is then the reason for application of such measure? As it was rightly noted, Polish banking sector has a problem of excess liquidity, totalling to 30 billion PLN.

When it comes to the banking sector, credit expansion towards SMEs is to be facilitated by guarantees issued by the state-owned bank (BGK, page 77)

Wzmocnienie możliwości gwarancyjnych polskiego BGK w granicach od 65 do 100 mld zł w latach 2015 – 2021 będzie rozwiązaniem bezpiecznym, niewymagającym nakładów ze strony państwa i neutralnym dla budżetu.

When making such move, you should be aware of two facts. Firstly, a bank which lends to a business against a guarantee issued by BGK bears effectively credit risk of BGK, because if a customer defaults, the bank has a claim on the guarantor. This means commercial banks need to have credit limits for BGK, which although not regulatory capped, are in practice limited by ceilings will be imposed by banks’ internal policies. Secondly, issuing guarantees necessitate raising equity to meet capital adequacy requirements, what, assuming BGK stays 100% state-owned, means the government would need to inject money to pay-in the capital, thus making the sentence above from the PiS agenda true, only if current own funds of BGK give enough headroom to issue guarantees in aforementioned amounts. On pages 77 and 78, the document says…

Polscy przedsiębiorcy prywatni ulokowali na rachunkach bankowych (w postaci lokat długoterminowych) środki rzędu 200 mld zł. Jest to znaczny zasób rozwojowy, a państwo ma obowiązek działać na rzecz jego uruchomienia poprzez stworzenie systemu zachęt inwestycyjnych w systemie podatkowym. W przygotowanym Prawo i Sprawiedliwość projekcie ustawy o podatkach dochodowych (PIT i CIT) znalazły się rozwiązania pozwalające na 100-procentową amortyzację nakładów inwestycyjnych w roku ich poniesienia, a w przypadku wydatków na badania i rozwój – nawet na podwójne odliczenie. Szacuje się, że po wejściu tych rozwiązań w życie w ciągu najbliższych 6–7 lat wspomniana kwota 200 mld zł będzie przeznaczona na inwestycje.

During my 3-years’ career I have never seen any company which put its excess money on bank deposits with term longer than 3 months. And mere tax credits are not a cure for businesses’ reluctance to invest. I could argue with more of the statements above, but as both the author of this part of the agenda as I lack strong backing in favour of our assertions, such argument would get us nowhere. Let’s turn to page 79 then.

Kolejnym instrumentem kumulowania złożonych zasobów rozwojowych będzie udomowienie banków. Będziemy wspierać działania upowszechniające polską własność w sektorze bankowym. (...) Pierwszym jest przyrost organiczny, czyli szybszy rozwój banków krajowych poprzez rozwijanie akcji kredytowej i zwiększanie depozytów. Drugi sposób polega na zakładaniu i rozwoju nowych instytucji opartych o kapitał krajowy. W tym celu muszą zostać wprowadzone preferencje dla małych instytucji, w tym spółdzielczych. Trzecim sposobem jest przejęcie banków opartych o kapitał zagraniczny przez podmioty krajowe zaliczane do sektora finansowego, w których Skarb Państwa ma znaczące udziały. Udomowieniu banków będzie towarzyszyła rozbudowa polskiej bankowości o zasięgu lokalnym typu hipotecznego, spółdzielczego lub kas oszczędnościowo-kredytowych. Udomowienie banków zwiększy zaangażowanie polskiego sektora finansowego w rozwój gospodarczy, szczególnie poprzez akcję kredytową, w tym udzielanie kredytów inwestycyjnych.

„Domesticating” the banks is not an entirely new concept. Of course, proportions of capital ownership can be changed by organic growth, but in line with previously mentioned capital adequacy requirements, in order to extend more loans, you need to shore up banks’ equities. How would it be ensured that holders of such equity would be only Polish entities? In order to overtake the risk-averse banks run from their head office abroad, lending standards would also have too be loosed, running the risk of severe losses in the economic downturn. Takeovers executed by state-owned banks are the most controversial idea. Firstly, it decreases competition and even without effective merger which could be blocked by competition watchdog (recall incomplete merger of Pekao and BPH in 2007?), control over the banking sector could be concentrated in one pair of hands. Secondly, it would cost billions of zlotys and if political goals are set above sound business reasoning, state-owned banks are likely to pay over the odds for their targets.

These are just a few examples of flawed or undoable concepts from the economic agenda of PiS. Apart from them it contains several questionable ideas, transferring free-market mechanism of economic self-regulation to the hands of the government and several good ideas, which, if properly implemented, could unleash potential of Polish small and medium companies and make business environment in Poland more friendly. Nevertheless, the approach to the economy is too statist for me. Too many control and co-ordination mechanisms are put forward. The government, whose areas of control or regulation are too wide, is unlikely to be lean, i.e. cheap and efficient.

I am looking forward to newly-released economic agendas of main political parties in Poland. When they are published, I promise to pick out incongruities and share them with you.

Hot autumn in politics

Looking at recent posts you might have inferred subject matters brought up recently depart more and more from what the blog should be mostly about. Time to get back to the core…

To politics…

The pre-election campaign has been in overdrive for a few weeks but I somehow do not feel that in three weeks I will go to the polls. This campaign in a way looks lacklustre for me, nothing really exciting has been going on. I do not know if it is good or bad, maybe I have too little time to keep track of the events in politics, but this campaign appears to me much different that all the recent ones (those in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2005 and 2007 and before early presidential election last year).

The first remarkable thing is that two fellow bloggers are running for parliament. Toyah goes in for a seat in the lower house from constituency Katowice from Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (hereinafter PiS) list, while Paulina can be found on Warsaw’s lists of Ruch Poparcia Palikota. I will not have a chance to vote for any of them, I actually do not know personally anyone from the lists in my constituency.

A few months ago it was quite sure that Platforma Obywatelska (hereinafter PO) would be the odds-on favourite of the autumn election. Today, as the most recent polls show the biggest oppositional party, PiS has caught up with the ruling PO and support for the latter is in some polls is less than five percentage points lower than for the former. Actually it is not an astonishing tendency. PO’s victory would be the first ever win of the ruling party in Poland after 1989. Each time before, Poles were sick of previous governments and wanted something other, but that is a negligible factor. Never before have Poles been so divided in terms of political views. There was a strong hatred towards PiS in 2007, now there is a strong hatred, but mostly towards PO, hostility towards PiS is still alive, media still favour PO, but electorate of PiS has built up strong backing and keeps growing in power. It is no longer passé to admit publicly one votes for PiS, in this respect things look much better than in 2007 when voters of stepping down PiS were really despised and it was cool to vote for PO. Today those who back Mr Kaczynski can hold their heads up high.

I see some reasons why support for PiS is on the rise:

- people are sick of success propaganda pursued by the current government and run out of patience,

- the issue of Smolensk has been shelved,

- the new strategy of the party sets out to build a new image of open-minded, moderate party which wants to develop Poland on foundations of traditional values in a modern way,

- plus again it promises the moon in terms of economics, as if they were capable of cracking down on rising costs of living, unemployment, etc.

And there is reason why I do not understand it. All other parties take part in debates, while PiS members only organise press conferences of give interviews, they do not want to discuss with other parties. Supporters of PiS say it is because media are biased, opponents claim in turn PiS members know they are not prepared for a substantial debate. The truth lies… Do not hope to find it out… It lies where it lies…

I sometimes dare to think PiS wants to lose the election and focus on fighting for ultimate power in 2015, taking over the whole power (majority of two-third in the parliament plus their president). It could be even quite convenient to them to let PO run Poland through the end of the impending second wave of economic crisis, repeat hackneyed theses of Poland in a total downfall, chaos, ruled by incompetent people.

The campaign and politics as a whole abounds in inept pronouncements. The most noteworthy examples from the recent months are:

24 August – PiS deputy and ecomomic expert Beata Szydło says in Tok FM radio Polish GDP is shrinking (in the second quarter of 2011 it rose by 4.3% year-on-year).

26 August – PiS deputy Adam Hofman comments on the new clip of Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (hereinafter PSL) saying guys from the countryside came to the capital and go bananas.

Early days of September – member of Monetary Policy Council, Zyta Gilowska, former finance minister in PiS-led government publicly backs PiS and declares her readiness to take part in a debate with the incumbent finance minister on public finance. Such activity would have been a blatant violation of central bank independence and derogation of Polish central banking law. This move wound me up as an economist and on 7 September I was going to write a short note to condemn her misdemeanour. Eventually on the same day, during the ending session of the council Zyta Gilowska was probably taken to the task by the president of the central bank, came to her senses and backed out of the idea of engaging in political activity.

14 September – Mr Rostowski, from the ruling PO, during his speech in the European Parliament scaremongers claiming that if the EU fails to overcome the ongoing economic crisis, it will lead not only to social unrest, but may end up with war over the coming decade. Are there things you can think of, but shouldn’t mention?

16 September – Grzegorz Napieralski, leader of Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (hereinafter SLD) calls PO to create a government if PiS wins the election. The perplexing idea is quickly and rightly retorted by the prime minister Donald Tusk who reminds Mr Napieralski that only Poles have a right to decide who will form the government. If PiS gets the biggest percent of votes it should build a new government. Who would dare to enter a coalition with them is a totally different story…

Of course this coverage is biased, but still less biased than posts on other blogs…

Now a quick look at agendas of two parties that have a chance to win the election.

PO wants to press ahead with modernisation of Poland with the method of small steps. No big liberal reforms, no difficult choices. PO underlines what it claims to have done over last 4 years and silently concedes its defeats. Unlike SLD it does not focus on reviving memories of IV RP nor wants to put Jarosław Kaczyński and Zbigniew Ziobro before the Constitutional Tribunal. In a word – realpolitik…

PiS also has an agenda, but it consists mainly of:

a) criticising feckless PO-led government,

b) taking pride in achievements of PiS-led government.

But seriously, as a biased recipient I have to say it is simply incoherent and lacks details. Let’s examine some parts of their economic agenda.

PiS wants to levy an additional tax on banks. At least one candidate of this party says banks are evil and if only possible would love to wipe them out. Coming back to the bank tax, no one says on what (equity, total assets, deposits, net income) the tax would be paid, but in the meantime PiS wants to boost banks’ income by extending the Rodzina na Swoim programme, under which the state pays half of the interest on mortgage loans to families who buy a new flat or house and meet specific criteria. The programme boosts demand on properties and consequently also property prices go up. This means the beneficiaries of the subsidies for the borrowers are (1) developers which can sell flats at higher prices and earn more and (2) banks which can charge clients higher margins (it is proved that loans under Rodzina na Swoim have higher margins, because cost for a client is lower than for a non-subsidised loan anyway). If property prices rise, fewer people can afford to buy a flat without a mortgage, so more people have to go to banks plus they have to borrow more. And so the banks earn more and debt burdens of households increase…

It is easy to say banks enslave people, but how does it impinge on the contribution PiS wants to make? Another thing I like in the agenda of PiS and speeches delivered by Mr Kaczyński is the phrases pieniądze się muszą znaleźć (money has to be found) and są zasoby do których można sięgnąć (there are resources that can be tapped). I have not heard until now where that money is, nor what those resources are. Pooling wool over poor voters’ eyes all the way… Or if somebody could enlighten me…?

Mr Kaczyński is of the opinion that the rich, not the poor should bear higher tax burdens. So why the heck did his party (with support of PO) resolve to cut the income tax marginal rates by 8 percentage points for the richest, by 12 percentage points for well-earning ones and by one, mere one percentage post for most Poles? Why did they cut sickness benefit contribution (składka rentowa) and grant tax deductible amount for each child under such conditions that the poorest could not deduct any amount? Key beneficiaries of all those moves are the well-off, it would be quite natural if those changes were pushed through by libreal PO, but they were passed in times of Polska Solidarna. Jarosław Kaczyński surely solidarised with the better-off.

If PO wins… Someone will surely say the election has been rigged.

If PiS wins… Someone will surely call Poles idiots, morons, etc.

If PiS wins… Life will be much more exciting.

If PiS wins… Maybe I will set up a Polish language blog on politics…

I do not think victory of Mr Kaczyński party would be a disaster, but I do not want it for Poland.  I do not want my country to follow the path of Hungary under Mr Orban’s administration. As much and as little.

Incongruity - a short story

Once there way a boy. He lived with his parents and two years older sister in a new flat to which the family had moved a few month earlier. The middle school the boy attended has topped the rankings for five years in a row, so it was decided that the boy would still attend it. The distance between the new flat and the school (five kilometres) necessitated every day commutes. However, they were not a nuisance, as the journey by bus lasted mere eight minutes, buses in the morning ran every five minutes and the bus stop was a stone's throw from the block where the family lived.

One winter morning when the temperature was hovering around zero, the boy and his sister were about to leave for school. The sister began going out with her first boyfriend just a few weeks ago and since then has much more cared about her appearance. Her boyfriend had promised to take her out after classes and she wanted to look really splendid. She occupied the only bathroom for over a quarter putting on make-up on her face. The boy did not want to come late to school, so he knocked at the bathroom door and asked his sister if she could let him in, because he wanted to a morning toiletry and go away. She was very busy tweaking with her eyelashes so she told her brother to get lost and wait his turn. After a few minutes she left the bathroom, the boy did what he had to go, put on his winter coat, shoes and set off towards the bus stop.

He knew he still stood a chance of catching the 7:43 service, so he marched towards the stop very briskly. When he was just twenty metres away, he saw his bus pulling up. He ran to the bus stop at full pelt to get into the vehicle. Unfortunately, the driver did not show sympathy for the hurrying boy and shut the door just before his face. The boy had to choice but to wait for the next bus, due in five minutes. The wind was gusty that morning, so, understandably, he decided to wait in a bus shelter.

A nineteen-year-old spaced-out student was returning home from a post-exam-period party in his also nineteen-year-old BMW (abbr. Burak Ma Wózek - Bumpkin has a cart). As he was approaching the bus lay-by it seemed to him another driver cut in on him. To avoid rear-ending the car, which was still on the other lane, he swerved swiftly. The car went into a skid in the icy road. Its driver, scared stiff, instead of skimming on the brakes pushed the accelerator pedal. The car did around 100 kmph when it smashed into the bus shelter. The boy had to chance to survive. He died at the scene.

Who should be held culpable for the boy's death?
Answer 1: His fastidious sister who had to finish doing her make-up?
Answer 2: The fastidious bus driver, who closed the door?

It takes one cross to break out a row

This week’s bolt out of the blue was the decision to move the cross from outside the presidential palace to the chapel inside the palace, from where it will be moved to Kościół Św. Anny and then taken from there on a pilgrimage to Smolensk plane crash site on 10 October (if the pilgrimage will take place at all). The decision to has drawn another line of divide in the nation, but it has to be said over three-quarters of Poles, as shown by the survey carried out for Rzeczpospolita are of the opinion the decision was right.

Another poll, prepared for Gazeta Wyborcza reveals around two-third of Poles think the late president shouldn’t have been buried on Wawel. The figures speak for themselves – “Poland” doesn’t gather around the cross, Poland dismissed the efforts of Jarosław Kaczyński to make up for his twin brother’s (at best) ordinary presidency and establish him as a national hero.

This week I managed to persuade my colleagues that Jarosław Kaczyński is absolutely sane and what he does is a part of a well-thought-out scheme. This guy has a vision of a country, which actually doesn’t strike a chord with most people in Poland, so the only method to bring Poles round into his plot is to make them believe everything that has been built within the last two decades is evil, by means of discrediting most politicians (excluding himself, his brother and a handful of others, such as Jan Olszewski) who have run Poland in that period. If followed out successfully, it would give him a moral justification to take over power. To put it simply – he needs to destroy a lot to start over with his project.

And my colleagues managed to persuade me Jarosław Kaczyński is not capable of overthrowing the president or the government – the group of his followers is too weeny to pursue such scenario.

Now some quotations from the last two days and some questions triggered by them…

Będziemy musieli czekać do nowej władzy, by uczczono pamięć ofiar tej katastrofy, prezydenta RP w sposób właściwy i godny. Does it mean efforts to replace the authorities will be stepped up? Is it possible to agree on a clear-cut definition of commemorating the fatalities properly and with dignity? How sizeable and splendid should the monument be? (I know one dog owner who already has an opinion how big the monument of Lech Kaczynski should be).

Gdyby Polska była normalnie funkcjonującą demokracją, na scenie politycznej nie byłoby już premiera, Bronisława Komorowskiego, Radosława Sikorskiego, Bogdana Klicha i Tomasza Arabskiego - another insult to Poles, around fifty per cent of them still back PO. If democracy in this country doesn’t function properly maybe is it time to replace it with a better political system? A good example how a proper democracy works is Jarosław Kaczyński’s party – just speak your mind and feel the whip of democracy on your back, as Elżbieta Jakubiak did.

If defenders of the cross sang Ojczyznę wolną racz nam wrócić Panie, does it mean Poland is not free? Do those people realise comparing Poland under Tusk’s and Komorowski’s rule to the times of partitions, nazi occupation or being a part of Soviet bloc borders on a blasphemy and is a serious accusation?

Czułam się lepiej widząc, że cały naród płacze (Małgorzata Wassermann) - does anyone else feel better when millions of people cry?

Kaczyński says first lady’s presence in Smolensk would be inappropriate… Is resorting to moral blackmailing appropriate? Is it appropriate to point who should be active in politics and who shouldn’t? Is it appropriate to suggest so many Poles must be wrong to support PO? Is it appropriate to deny 28 families or anyone else a right to visit the crash site?

Ukradli krzyż Whose cross is it? It wasn’t put up by the defenders but by the scouts? They granted themselves ownership of the cross...

It seems the rough-and-tumble around the cross won’t last long. The defenders are running out of steam and more and more Poles are sick of watching that lousy comedy going on. If Jarosław Kaczyński keeps stirring things up, Poles will wipe him out from the political scene in the coming elections. You can say Kaczyński is wicked or mendacious, but he had a vision of Poland, now the focal point of his political plan is not a moral revolution, but glorifying his brother. Instead of building new motorways and railways he’d build monuments of the late president.

Every day I wake up with a sigh of relief. Let’s face it – Bronisław Komorowski is a mediocre head of state, but what would have happened if Kaczyński had been elected a president? Poland would have turned into a place where everything revolves around the plane crash, monuments, crosses, plaques, investigations, glorifications, passing moral judgements, blamestormings, recriminations. I doubt public discourse would be focused on real economic and social problems… By the way – has anyone heard any politician from PiS speaking about pension system reform, health service, public debt or any other burning issue? They gave voice when they put forward a bank tax, but in general the debate doesn’t centre around any issue that could help move Poland forward.

Polish politics spirals out of control

Last year I was on holiday on the anniversary of 9/11 and I didn't write about all conspiracy theories concerning those terrorist attacks. Some time ago the topics of “inside job” fascinated me, later on I gave all those dwellings up. Every time a big tragedy happens conspiracy theories proliferate. Probably a human mind tries to cope with what is beyond its understanding by coming up with most ridiculous explanations. The world is slowly forgetting about those tragic events, this year the run-up to the anniversary was marked by a plan of American pastor Terry Jones to burn Koran to demonstrate his objection to plans to build a mosque in the vicinity of ground zero in NYC. I wonder if the pastor realised his deed would be like a red rag to a bull – it could only provoke subsequent acts of violence from fundamentalist Muslims. Politicians’ reactions were very swift – world leaders firmly condemned and dissociated themselves from the disruptive plans and the pastor eventually called off the heinous event. I wonder what he wanted to achieve – what was the point in sparking off another conflict? After all don’t Catholics and Muslims believe in the same God but in a different way? Should relations between religions be based on mutual respect? Instead of dialogue we I saw headlines “World at the mercy of an idiot”. Does it prove power of one man?

In Poland despite cold weather it is getting only hotter. On Tuesday “Gazeta Polska” published an interview with Jarosław Kaczyński in which he envisages Lech Wałęsa will soon be discredited and after his name is dragged through the mud Lech Kaczyński will become a symbol of Solidarity. The late president indeed was a member and advisor of Solidarity, however his merits cannot be compared to those who really worked out a compromise with communist authorities and fought out some freedoms achievable in the limitations of political system based on dependence on Soviet Union. His brother’s designs look like nothing else but an attempt to make up for lack of big achievements in PRL and to get his own back on those who were building independent Poland after 1989 and were successful in politics. It seems to be inconvenient to him that twin brothers did little to go down in history and it justifies the steps taken to rewrite the history. “It’s us, not them, who should be heroes, who should be remembered by generations, who dismantled the communism, if the facts are evidence against us, the worse for the facts”, is what Jarosław might think. Jarosław says it is mean to say his brother’s presidency was not very outstanding (as Tadeusz Mazowiecki had said)…

Can finally anyone tell what Lech Kaczyński had done to be deemed to be an outstanding president? From 2006 he proved to be mediocre president steered by his twin brother, who failed to represent Poland abroad with dignity, was servile to his brother’s government and squabbled with Donald Tusk’s government, was unfamiliar with the rules of diplomacy, deteriorated Poland’s relations with neighbouring countries, favoured some social and professional groups, called national mourning every few months, appointed his henchmen rather than professionals for official positions in state administration and took umbrage at any occasion. Now any attempt to criticise the conduct of late president and refusal to glorify him and his heritage (was it said what his heritage actually is?) is treated as declaring war to the most outstanding politician after 1989.

Jarosław Kaczyński could not fail to suggest Poland is a Soviet-German colony what prompted a press conference held by politicians of three parties whose members sit in the parliament. All voiced their outrage at Kaczyński’s interview and expressed their disapproval of insulting Poland and Poles. Last week saw also two other unprecedented moves – Marek Migalski was ousted from PiS’ delegation to European Parliament, Elżbieta Jakubiak was suspended from her membership in the party for lack of allegiance. A journalist of Gazeta Wyborcza (imp)lies the most likely reason for that step was an alleged interview in which Mrs Jakubiak had said; “Jarosław must feel co-responsible for the death of his brother, if it had not been for his ambitions, Lech Kaczyński would have stayed on as university professor”… (BTW – where can this interview be found, article in Wyborcza lacks precise reference?!) Is it a key to the door?

The so-called System accused Kaczyński of insanity. What he does may seem to appear as a struggle of a blind man, but you should remember Kaczyński is a man of steel and never loses touch. In totalitarian systems dissidents were deliberately dubbed lunatics to detract from their “twaddle”. To my young eye Jarosław Kaczyński is in a top form, sane as never, knows very well what he is doing, has a plan to follow out and is determined to do it. In short his goal quite likely is to dishonour heroes of Solidarity, the current government and president. Consequently, he might be intent on building his brother’s legend as the only one who had moral rights to be a heir of Solidarity’s attainments. Calling current state officials Soviet or German servants sounds then as nothing else but invoking fear and an attempt to find any reason to tell Poles they don’t have legitimacy for running this country.

Kaczyński no longer cares about the support. He has his avid believers who hang on every word he says and would probably execute any order he would give, including bringing down the government by force. The rest of Poles turn their backs on the sane leader or don’t give a damn. The recent polls show PO enjoys support of roughly 52% of Poles, PiS of 25%, SLD of 20%. Many Poles have had enough of what has been going on. The rising backing for PO cannot be justified by their good rule, only by fear of PiS back in power. Good performance of SLD suggests their new anti-clerical strategy bears fruits. Is the diagnosis Poles are sick of privileged position of Catholic church in public life spot-on? There is still an empty space in Polish politics, Janusz Palikot claims, and organises a congress of his new movement which may become a new, truly liberal (in social and economic terms) party to fill it in. Is there a demand for such a party in Poland. Palikot’s views quite well overlap mine, but does a party or movement run by such a controversial lunatic stand a chance to exceed the 5% parliament entry threshold?

On Friday Gazeta Wyborcza published a letter of some of Smolensk crash fatalities’ families to the First Lady, who want to travel to Smolensk six months after the crash and take the cross from outside the presidential palace with themselves. It seemed it could be an excellent idea to commemorate the deceased passengers of TU-154 and to solve the problem of the cross. Predictably, self-styled defenders of the cross, supported by politicians of PiS denied them the right to move away the cross. How long will the Polish state put up with people who appropriated the symbol of tragedy which affected mostly families who had lost their relatives in that accident, and then granted themselves moral right to decide where the cross should stand?

Will Kaczynski’s crusade ever end? On Friday leader of PiS adjudicated current prime minister, president and a few prominent politicians of the ruling party bear a political and moral responsibility for the tragedy. Still I see no causation between PO’s alleged policy of bringing discredit on late president and the plane crash. The same could have happened to Mr Tusk if his visit had been scheduled three days later. Jarosław Kaczynski used imperative sentences – those politicians mentioned above have to disappear from Polish politics forever. In a democracy only voters can force them to step down, moral judgements passed by Jarosław Kaczynski either stem out of his lust for revenge for brother’s death or are a part of a more complex plan to sling mud at Polish government, aimed at proving Mr Tusk and Mr Komorowski must not exercise power. I also fear how this plan (provided it exists) may end up. Given the level of rancour in the Polish society, the readiness of ardent believers of Mr Kaczynski to rise up, his determination to glorify his brother and insult his political opponents, it is not inconceivable some people may take law into their hands… I read yesterday on Internet forums on WP.PL all recent Kaczynski’s actions may serve as a justification for a coup d’etat. If Poland is ruled by a Soviet president and a Soviet prime minister, who should be eliminated from the Polish nation (as the defenders of the cross allegedly chanted on Friday) because they contributed to the death of previous president and 95 other people, it is in the best interest of Poland to topple the government and depose the president. Hatred is in the air and unfortunately scenarios of riots, bloodshed or some sort of civil war, though rather unfounded, cannot be totally ruled out.

On crosses, rants, presidents and would-be presidents

But before I dwell on the current issues my apologies to Adthelad. Regrettably, I did not find time to watch “The Trap” so understandably I cannot review it today. When will it happen? Hmmm… Pending…

I had a second busy week at work, but everything seems to indicate the pressure is going to ease up a bit in the coming days so maybe three evenings will be enough to watch three parts of the documentary, jot down some key points and remarks and then put it together and share on the blog with the readers.

From the beginning of the year weather has had many swings and has surprised Poles many times. This week’s stars were storms and downpours: one on Tuesday, another yesterday. If meteorologists are right, today we should expect a repetition of yesterday’s show. I have guests today, so there might be a bit of a problem, or a necessity to put them up overnight.

This week has been extremely hot in the politics. On Tuesday Poland witnessed an attempt to move the cross from outside the presidential palace. The operation was scheduled for that day, as an agreement between the scouts (who had put up the cross), the Church (cross is a religious symbol) and the presidential office (it is their premise) has been reached. Predictably, unrelenting defenders of the cross (excellent rant by fellow blogger Scatts, I fully back him) blocked the whole operation, the state gave in and the cross is still left outside the palace and a group of weirdoes are still guarding it. Many leftist and liberal commentators hailed the Tuesday events as the failure of Polish state. I partly agree, for the following reasons:

1. Poland is theoretically a secular state so this symbol should not be present in a public space, in front of one the most important official edifices, but on the other hand it is no longer a religious symbol, it is a purely political symbol. The cranks who scuffled with the police on Tuesday called priests “communist secret service agents in disguise” and named scouts “Bolsheviks”, as befits truly religious Catholics. They pray during their sentry, but I wonder to whom – I do not think to God, this is the shrine to late president Kaczynski, I suppose. The cross is a political symbol (and no mistake?).

2. Why can a group of people appropriate a public place and a cross they didn’t even put up. In most countries such an illegal assembly outside a public building (unless there’s a reason for it, as it was during the mourning in April) would be gently scattered to four winds. Here, as the defenders of the cross point out with unhidden satisfaction, the System was totally HELPLESS. The System was overcome, the anarchy is victorious. But it is not the fact that this cross is still there that fills me with dread. I don’t care if there is a cross, two crosses, one thousand crosses and how many PiS-lovers chain themselves to them. There is a Polish proverb which goes roughly: “Let them bite your finger and they’ll eat your whole arm”. I am afraid once the state has succumbed to their claims, they will be impudently eager to break other laws.

3. And there is a reason why I am content the cross is still there. Bearing in mind how dogged its defenders are, the operation of moving it to a nearby church would end up with a bloodshed and those injured would be made martyrs. And sorry to say that, I would not swallow it. I heard double Dutch about martyrs who died in a plane crash (or rather were murdered by the System) and I would surely lose my temper if heard about a PiS-believer wounded or, Heaven forbid, killed by the functionaries of the System.

BTW – look at how Moscow looks today – the fog over the capital of Russia is the best evidence to support the hypothesis that Russians can create fog and they did it in Smolensk on 10 April ;)

I fully understand why Mr Komorowski is reluctant to move into the presidential palace. I would also feel uneasy if outside my house picketed a group of people who would call me a traitor or find me an illegitimate president.

PO once again proved to be too timorous to get to grips with some contentious issues. Two months ago I thought PO was in line with my moderate social views. SLD with its ostentatious anti-clericalism was too leftist for me. Today, if the only criterion for voting for a party were social views and I did not give a damn about the economy, I would vote for SLD…

A propos economy. What do you make of the plans of VAT hike? Am I one of the minority who think it is necessary and justified. In my perception of economic policy a balanced budget and low public debt are more likely to guarantee sustainable economic growth than low taxes which generate deficits. I have never been optimistic about moves of PiS-led government which cut taxes and other burdens when the economy was booming. Such moves are apposite when economy is in the doldrums to stimulate it, not when the growth is running at 5 or 6 per cent per year. It was like adding fuel to the fire and it contributed to current budget setbacks. Everyone knows Polish social security system is ailing, but is it a reason to cut its revenues (sickness benefit contribution) without cutting down on expenses? The same about taxes – taxation rates went down and at the same time government spending was boosted. What do I make – the objective of the government should be to generate budget surplus, through both raising taxes and retrenchments. Low level of public debt means government is unlikely to increase taxes and this certainty creates a really friendly environment for businesses. The move made by PiS in 2006 was very short-sighted and those who benefited from it surely were not the voters of the party.

Breaking news – Mr Kaczynski’s statement on the Mr Komorowski’s swearing-in ceremony.

For those who do not know yet, Mr Kaczynski was absent at that ceremony. One version is that he had to pick up his mother from a hospital (I wonder if he used a private car for it and paid for it from his own purse) and surely fortuitously arranged for the day when the ceremony was scheduled to be held, the other is, as deputy Mariusz Błaszczak had said, that Mr Kaczynski’s absence was obvious in the light of how critical PO politicians were about his brother. Hang on, is it not normal in democracy to be critical about someone else’s rule?

Now some quotes from Mr Kaczynski’s today’s appearance.

1. To zaprzysiężenie było wynikiem śmierci mojego brata i i moich bliskich (That swearing-in was an implication of my brother’s and my relatives’ deaths)
Rebuttal: If you had become a president it would also have been because of their deaths. If your brother was alive he would run for presidency, not you!

2. Sądzę, iż w dużej mierze został on wybrany prezydentem przez nieporozumienie, bo jestem przekonany, że bardzo wiele osób, które na niego głosowały zapateryzmu w Polsce nie chce (I think it was a considerable misunderstaning that Mr Komorowski was elected a president, I am convinced many of his voters do not want Zapatero-like policies in Poland).
Rebuttal: Mr Komorowski is too timid to take steps characteristic for leftist social agendas, but he was elected because many leftist voters put a cross against him to choose the lesser of two evils. As far as I can see around, most Poles want the cross to be removed from outside the palace, but they do their bits and do not protest, those who want the cross to stay there make the noise. It would have been a misunderstanding if you had been elected a president. Mr Komorowski did not lie about his Catholicism and has not used religion to wage a war against “enemies” (you love that word, do not you, it is one of your favourites). You told stories to Poles about your change and returned to the rhetoric of aggression after the lost election. If you had won, you would have done the same, it is natural for you. The result of recent election many Poles put stock in your change. Soon, when they realise you are just a mendacious man with lust for power, the support for your lousy party drops. And after all rows over the cross the one who gains will be SLD.

Over. Just a month ago I did not bear any grudge against PiS, its voters and acolytes, today I would hold back from declaring that. I think I lost my temper.

Solidarni 2010

As a matter of principle I don’t watch television. I find it a waste of time, if I want to get hold of some information, Internet or newspapers are better sources. The former because it allows me to quickly find what I want, the latter offers contact with a written word rather than moving picture. This conscious decision to keep away from the box entails some consequences, for example I haven’t the faintest idea who today’s celebrities are or what is being watched by masses. Recently I have been caught up in a big media uproar triggered by one film broadcast in the first channel of Polish television.

Some of you probably heard of “Solidarni 2010”, a documentary shot by Mr Pospieszalski in a week following the Smolensk tragedy. Mr Pospieszalski is generally a controversial figure, leftists, liberals and mild conservatives reckon him to be extremely partial and prejudiced, but he has a group of staunch supporters for whom he is one of handful of journalist courageous enough to tell the unpopular truth.

The documentary was supposed to be a record of true Poles’ feelings in the time of mourning, but along the way something was screwed up and finally Polish media ethics watchdog (Rada Etyki Mediów) picked on the film and claimed Mr Pospieszalski had violated rules of objectivity, respect and tolerance. In the wake of the debate which consisted in mostly trading accusations I decided to download the film and sacrifice ninety minutes to watch the controversial footage. I divided my reflections on it into three paragraphs.

1. True Poles
The people who starred in the film were only true Poles, those who mourned the president, who really loved him, who queued up for over a dozen hours to pay tribute to him. I wonder how those people who were showed in the film had been chosen. How many were interviewed and how long did it take to pick the opinions which fit the film best? How do those people who appeared in the film feel now? Are they proud or ashamed of themselves?
Judging by the documentary only, Poland came to a standstill in the days following the plane crash. In truth, most Poles slowed down a bit, but they carried on living normally, some remained indifferent, some were only sad. But are those who didn’t cry not true Poles? The bad Poles are the youngsters who protested against burial on Wawel. “How do they dare?”, one of the older women asked. In line with the consensus in the face of such a tragedy some of us should keep our mouths shut and others should take decisions without taking heed of Poles’ views.
The funny thing is that among the “ordinary Poles” you could see actors and politicians (councillors) of Law and Justice. Here I’ll stop by to quote Katarzyna Łaniewska, one of Polish actresses who in 2005 endorsed Lech Kaczynski. Mrs Łaniewska said many of her friendships had broken because her ex-friends had ridiculed late president. Once again something is beyond my comprehension. Some of my friends voted for PiS, some will vote for Mr Kaczynski or Mr Napieralski, some even hate PO or say Mr Olechowski was a sneak or scoundrel. And somehow we don’t fall out, we are aware of different views, find many other topics for conversation and live with our dissents. Your friend can say “president is a midget”, but is it a reason to end a friendship?

2. Poland is a cesspit…
This is the general conclusion I have drawn from the film. For the past twenty years of alleged independence the country has been ruled by the układ and Poles have been manipulated by hostile media. The biggest symbols of evil are of course Gazeta Wyborcza and TVN which hounded the outstanding president to death. I find it still hard to come to terms with the inconvenient for me truth that the country I’m living in is a dummy democracy steered by secret services of Russia. Many of the interviewed straightforwardly claimed they thought other countries were pulling strings in Poland. My reaction is even worse when I find out Poland has been built on lies, damned lies, spread by hostile media. Personally I take it as an insult when someone suggests I have to watch Tusk Vision Network or read The Selective to know what to think. I really don’t need to resort to help of partial journalists to form my own opinions. I am intelligent enough to do it myself.
The very true point in the film was that media indeed presented a very unfavourable image of Mr Kaczynski before his decease. Many times instead of coming up with substantive criticism they simply ridiculed him, produced an angled image. After his tragic death they made a swift turnaround an glorified the president. And I wholeheartedly agree with the “true Poles” who said what media did was an excellent example of hypocrisy.

3. Conspiracy theories
It starts with some spiritual hypotheses – evil and hatred Poles were infected with pulled down the plane. The hatred killed them, if enough individuals wish the president is dead, their wish materialises… Watch out for the distinction – he did not die, he was killed.
Media also have their part in manipulating Poles. They have ready answers for all questions, they actually do everything to prevent rational-thinking Poles from asking questions about the causes of the tragedy. And supposing it could have been a planned assassination is a symbol of mental problems.
In short, it was not an accident. Mr Kaczynski was inconvenient for the Russians, so they decided to liquidate him. Mr Tusk probably tried to help them cover up the whole plot, especially by letting them carry out the investigation. One of the men says bluntly “Premier Tusk ma na swoich rękach polską krew” (Prime Minister Tusk has his hands covered with Polish blood). Someone can be silly enough to utter such a slander on a street, but someone who decides to broadcast it in national TV should be aware of legal consequences – the sentence could be interpreted as accusing Polish prime minister of murder. Fortunately, Mr Tusk did not react to this accusation.

Should it appear on public TV? Well, yes… In a democracy we have free speech and Mr Pospieszalski should have a right to have his film broadcast and given the number of complaints Media Ethics Council has received, Poles are outraged so everything functions properly. I am not outraged nor even surprised, I know what Mr Pospieszalski and fellow cranks are capable of.
But let’s consider an imaginary film showing the dark side of late president and a typical Polish street full of indifferent, laughing folks in the days of mourning. Would the authors of it be given a chance to have their footage showed in TV? And what makes my hackles rise is that the money for this film was laid on from our purses, it was financed from licence fee takings. Here’s the hitch, it should not have been paid for by taxpayers.

I would love to see two or three similar films before the election. Is it a weird desire? No dear readers, they would remind Poles the perils of relapse of IV RP. Poles should feel the same disgust as they felt in 2007 when they rejected the vision of the country devised by the twin brothers. You might ask why I want avert the situation when Mr Kaczynski or PiS are back rulers. It’s not that he’s short, unmarried, can’t speak any foreign language and drive a car. These are just meaningless shortcomings. The real reasons are more serious.
1) Mr Kaczynski wants to build Poland on mistrust,
2) In his vision, the citizens should be for the country, not the other way round!
3) He is an expert in dividing Poles into good and bad, patriots and traitors, Solidarity and ZOMO.
This is what the public discourse in Poland should focus on. It is silly to poke fun at slip-ups, we should rather concentrate on policy issues and there’s the rub.

And finally, I don’t understand the title of the film. It should have been titled “Skłóceni 2010” as it highlighted how Poles have been divided, even in the days of mourning.

The candidates once again

This time I won’t write about financial tribulations of EU, social unrest in Greece or spectacular turmoil on financial markets. Politics is what attracts much more attention so if I publish a new list of potential presidents of Poland at least the readers will be more likely to have their say.

The tragic Smolensk plane crash has brought about a serious reshuffle on the list of politicians running for presidency. Acting president and parliament speaker Bronisław Komorowski has called election for 20 June, so the short campaign, run in shadow of the Smolensk disaster, will last less than six weeks from now (plus possible fortnight before the run-off). In March I compiled a similar list of candidates, however, the recent events have prompted an update as two important candidates, incumbent president Lech Kaczynski and SLD candidate Jerzy Szmajdzinski both died on 10 April.

The order might matter so to avoid bias I decided to review contenders in alphabetical order.

1. Marek Jurek – extreme right-wing politician, until 2007 a member of Law and Justice party, which he left to voice his protest against enacting too liberal abortion law. Famous for his strong conservative social views and infamous for paying homage to general Pinochet.

2. Jarosław Kaczyński – twin brother of late president Lech Kaczynski and chairman of Law and Justice. Currently he stands a serious chance to vie with Mr Komorowski in a run-off on 4 July. The decision to run for presidency after the death of his brother is said to be natural. At the moment it hard to determine whether his partisans will be resorting to hits below the belt in this campaign. It is equally difficult to say if he is bearing up after the bereavement. Mr Kaczynski is likely to capitalise on the posthumous glorification of his brother’s presidency and in his campaign he will surely emphasise the determination to continue the aborted mission of his brother and restore the ideas of IV RP. It has to be said liberal voters are aghast at the mere thought of Mr Kaczynski as a head of Polish state.

3. Bronisław Komorowski – a Civic Platform’s candidate for the office of president, acting president and speaker of parliament. After the Smolensk disaster he has to carry a heavy burden of performing all those functions. The public opinion centres on him and it’s very easy for his political opponents to pull him up for virtually anything. From not crying at the funerals, through clumsy and too pathetic addresses and speeches, up to taking independent decisions such as signing new IPN bill. Currently he’s an odds-on favourite, but nobody can take his win for granted. Many voters are likely to put a cross against him just to prevent the worst, in their view, scenario.

4. Janusz Korwin-Mikke – an eccentric libertarian politician. This year’s campaign is his fifth run for presidency. He enjoys a considerable support of some young, male, surely not pragmatic voters. Mr Korwin-Mikke is usually described as quaint and clever oddball and stalwart critic of any manifestations of socialism. I am personally sceptical of his high IQ, whenever I read or hear his thoughts it appears to me his view of the world is over-simplified. Unfortunately, the reality is not that straightforward and the world and economics are much more complex.

5. Andrzej Lepper – a rural chieftain who built his political career on pouncing at the inhuman capitalism, blocking the roads and wangled his way into the senior positions in government. Sentenced to two years and three months of imprisonment for sexual harassment, cannot run for parliament, but for presidency, why not. This sad inconsistency proves how lame Polish law sometimes is. Yesterday I heard he began his campaign on bazaar in Łódź. I’m slightly missing him and his outrageous party. Polish politics without white-and-red ties, sandals worn together with a suit, kurwiki, wheedled out fuel allowance and many other stuff lost some of its flavour.

6. Kornel Morawiecki – few people heard about that guy. Mr Morawiecki was a member of anti-communist opposition in PRL, in independent Poland he keeps on trying to reshape the country. Hitherto – to no avail. Views – rather nationalistic.

7. Grzegorz Napieralski – SLD’s candidate after the tragic death of Mr Szmajdzinski, the youngest runner (aged 36). Nominated as a contender on the spur of the moment might look off-putting for many centre-left voters as he represents the far-left fringe of SLD. He is known for his radical leftist economic and social views. On political scene he would lean towards co-operation with Law and Justice rather than Civic Platform, for many a careerist and a mate who tries to capitalise on leftist sentiments.

8. Andrzej Olechowski – formally independent candidate, backed by niche Polish Democratic Party. Mr Olechowski wants to change a public discourse in Poland and focus on substantive discussion and moving Poland forward. If I don’t settle on tactical voting, I’ll support him. I have five reasons:
1) He is the independent candidate.
2) His political, social and economic views overlap mine best = he looks like a truly liberal candidate.
3) He is an economist (PhD in foreign trade) so he would understand much better than Mr Komorowski the mechanics of Polish economy.
4) His vision of presidency squares with mine – reconciliation, support and respect are the main foundations.
5) His command of foreign languages is the best among the runners.
He seems to stand out in terms of manners, he has a vision and sets it above career.
This one was immensely subjective, indeed… To make up for the positive bias I have to add before 1989 Mr Olechowski collaborated with PRL secret services, but he never tried to conceal those bleak episode from his life.

9. Waldemar Pawlak – represents Polish peasants’ party and might get more votes than expected. Currently he holds the office of deputy prime minister and economy minister. Recently he makes the headlines as the author of revolutionary draft of pension system reform. I fully advocate his ideas (small pension benefit provided by the state, equal for everyone, to have a higher pension save on your own), but maybe it would be better if he stayed on where he is.

10. Bogusław Ziętek – unfortunately the guy doesn’t have an entry in English wikipedia. Mr Ziętek shows there’s some room to the left of Mr Napieralski. He is said to be a powerful a trade union leader, an ideal head of state of suppressed working class, but is the presidency about burning tyres and yelling in attempt to get a pay rise?

To be continued…?

From shock towards paranoia

The discrepancy between media coverage of national mourning and what I see in Warsaw is growing. I have written about it in comments on other blogs, so in short – I could not see mourners on the streets and in my school, people behave normally, talk about down-to-earth issues, if they mention the tragedy it’s only because another event was called off due to mourning. As the comments on sundry forums imply, those people who gathered outside presidential palace did it mostly for fun and to meet other people. After all a human being is a social animal – no wonder they came there to take photos, sing and share their feelings.

I would like to thank Russians here:
1/ for the sense of fraternity our nations have probably never felt,
2/ for president and prime minister praying for the fatalities,
3/ for a personal address to Polish nation,
4/ for help given to Polish prime minister and families who went to Moscow to identify bodies,
5/ for national mourning on a day which should be joyful for all Russians,
6/ for thousands of white and red flowers laid outside Polish embassy in Moscow,
7/ and for broadcasting Katyń film in first channel of Russian national television in prime time.

But is it a right moment to say a friend in need is a friend indeed?

I am also grateful to Polish officials who have decided farewell ceremonies and funerals will be held over the weekend. Holding it on working day would unnecessarily bring Warsaw and Cracow to a standstill.

I find it increasingly harder to put up with worshiping the deceased president, mostly by those ones who would slag him off just a few days ago. Once a clunky man making funny faces is now almost venerated, one element seems to be missing – a halo over his head. The Economist has published a balanced review of Mr Kaczynski accomplishments. Mr Kaczynski, who died along with 95 others, including many of Poland’s military and political elite, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10th, epitomised some of the best and the worst features of Polish politics. - they write. In Poland the profile of Mr Kaczynski’s is likely be angled. Until 10 April 2010 his presidency was controversial… After 10 April it has been idealised.

Meanwhile some bloggers allegedly cleaned up their sites what means they deleted posts which included adverse opinions about president. I didn’t, the full record of my critical views on his presidency is more or less here.

Somebody has also put forward to bury Mr Kaczynski and his wife on Wawel, among the most distinguished Poles. This looks as a misunderstanding. As a head of state he deserves a funeral and grave, but on Powązki Wojskowe, where many outstanding Poles are buried. To make it clear, I think none of Polish politicians would deserve to be buried on Wawel, even those whom I respect most should not be granted such privilege.

Poland’s civil society holds strong and the action to prevent it on facebook was supported by almost 10,000 people within a few hours. I support the idea to grant Mr Kaczynski a title of freeman of Warsaw – he was a mayor of the capital, his tie-ups with Warsaw were very close, but to name a new bridge or the national stadium is out of place for me.

NIE dla pochowania Kaczyńskich na Wawelu!

I know it’s controversial, but avoiding bringing up debatable issues will get us nowhere. Nowhere but to distortions.

Should I be proud?

My school has announced on its website two professors from Warsaw School of Economics had been appointed as members of Monetary Policy Council. My university employs a lot of outstanding experts in monetary policy, like professor Krzysztof Rybiński, but for no apparent reason the current president decided to pick some of his buddies and once again set personal relationships above competencies. The previous president also for no apparent reasons designated renowned specialists – Andrzej Sławiński, Andrzej Wojtyna and Dariusz Filar.

Some time ago I evaluated competencies of Zyta Gilowska, there’s nothing I can add about her. None of fellow students with whom I discussed the nomination of Mr Glapiński and we our views simply square – he lacks knowledge, but is a close friend of Mr Kaczyński and no one else would have appointed him. He will have to learn a lot.

When it comes to Mr Kaźmierczak, the matter is a bit more complex. His field of academic research overlaps the issues of monetary policy, but there’s one significant fact about him that might have been seen as a merit by Mr Kaczyński. The new member of monetary authorities has never been a reputable figure among economists. His opinions are not appreciated, few people heard about him. He publishes in Gnash Dziennik, a newspaper of Father Rydzyk’s empire. I may be biased against him, as his dovish views are totally dissimilar to mine. He doesn’t see inflation above target as a danger for economy, it’s even conducive to economic growth as he says.

Inflation, contrary to what he advocates has to be handled carefully. It hazardously easily spirals out of control. As soon as it gets noticeable for customers, their inflationary expectations rise, so they hold out for pay rises and then when they get it, the economy is on the verge of a slippery slope.

In Poland a relatively tight monetary policy prior to the crisis helped our country avert a financial meltdown. Monetary authorities, mostly Mr Balcerowicz, who was a governor of central bank at the time were harshly criticised for the policy they had pursued. Unlike some other countries.

As professor John B. Taylor (the author of famous Taylor rule) points out in his latest interview for “Polityka”, one of the main causes of the financial crisis were too low interest rates. He also blames central banks and government for inapposite responses and openly condemns monetary policy run by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. This short interview might be helpful in understanding the origins and mechanics of what has been called the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Random tidings – SGH, stocks, blogs

Fellow students who, if Google Analytics tools don’t fail me, hardly ever visit PES may find here my outrage over what authorities of our school have done to us yesterday. Why did we file the course declarations in December, if one decision has nullified them? Why does somebody (put stock in the laconic announcement, and the guilty is prof. Joanna Plebaniak, who has showed lack of respect to students many times before) change the rules during the game? Why does nobody inform students about it? No wonder they get lost.

The worst thing about this is not the mess. I’ve learnt to live with the chaos built into my university, month by month it’s getting worse and whenever I think the sloth, incompetence and insolence have reached its climax, the next attempt to improve something proves me wrong. Every time the outcome of their activity is an outright failure, they try to tell us they had “temporary problems”, or they didn’t know, it wasn’t their fault etc. We, as students feel treated like downright idiots, because only a downright idiot would believe in their rubbish explainings.

The worst and hard to reconcile to is that people who screwed it up (don’t blame computing centre, they just fulfil orders from “dean’s office” and it’s not their fault that infrastructure is crappy) will never be held to account for this scandal. They will laugh in our faces and tell us “nothing has happened”. A man of honour would follow out a ‘PiS strategy’. PiS stands here for “Przeproście i Spieprzajcie!”. Unfortunately, they will never say sorry and, what is worse, they won’t bugger off! It is a human thing to make mistakes, but a decent man should be able to concede them, apologise and resign from a position they are not capable of holding it.

I feared the worst, I was prepared for the worst and nothing has taken me aback, so I sat in front of computer and after two and a half hours I straightened everything out. This time properly configured Firefox and usually crappy Play Online didn’t let me down. Thank God my adventure with Warsaw School of Economics will have been finished in a year, circumstances permitting. The last condition implies my hopes will be dashed.

Dear foreign readers, every time I visit any office of Polish administration I am truly grateful I’m not in my school. Any institution is more citizen-friendly than my school. I recently studied the economic collapse of Zimbabwe. If the whole Polish state administration worked like my school we would end up like the South-African country.

This has been a wonderful week on stock exchanges across the world. Indices plummeted by three to five per cent yesterday and today, wiping out the whole bull market from the last few months. On 4 February 2010 WIG 20 (Warsaw stock exchange blue chip index) slid by 4,11%, today it declined by only 3,95%. Since the last gasp of bull market it fell by 12%

Long live the free market, markets are sound, only the forecast found on “Profesjonalny Inwestor blog” is a bit scary – what I called a bull market might have been in Mr Bartłomiejczyk’s opinion just a correction in a long term downward trend. So are we going to see new troughs? Given the current fiscal problems and drags of public debts the pessimistic scenario is unfortunately conceivable. The first wave of crisis hit the financial sector, will the second one hit the governments which ran up debts to stimulate economies? Will the contagion of fiscal woes overcome stock markets? Poland’s situation seems very good, when compared to the countries which may face insolvency. Time will tell, at the present my forecast from 30 January proves right.

The most famous English-language blog about Poland is probably Polandian, but watch out now, I’ll give you a link to “Oto Polska”, the most infamous Polish-language blog about Poland. Don’t think it has anything in common in style or content with Polandian.

If you decide to click there, be prepared that the authors won’t pull any punches. Their picture of Poland is simple: a land of dog’s excrements lying on pavements and lawns, idiots brainwashed by Catholic Church, morons who try to outfox one another, cheat on every step, botch up everything they get round to. Their griping isn’t laced with any analysis, they don’t try to trace back the source of our national shortcomings, postings generally (not all) lack constructive criticism. Good blogging may include pouncing at bad solutions, but a writer should elaborate why a certain solution is flawed, how to improve it and justify it.

Authors of “Oto Polska” instead of delineating Poland’s inferiority and taking delight in calling Poles mongrels could rather use the Net to set up a movement to change this country. We are far from ideal place to live mostly for one reason – low level of social capital.

The most disturbing thing in the whole matter is that sadly many of their posts are totally true. Hadn’t they just been eaten up with hatred and crammed with foul language, they would have just described a dark side of Polish reality, like the post about Polish higher education system. Why does it strike a chord with me?

Penultimate optimistic part is a weather report. Last days were comfortably warm, yesterday daytime high was +2C, today temperature barely crept above zero. Snow was slowly melting. The coming days are expected to bring a bit frosty weather with light snowfalls. By and large, a normal February will follow a frosty January.

Final part is a photo from today’s hearing of Jarosław Kaczyński before parliamentary gambling scandal commission. Next time I go to a barber’s I’ll ask: Na Kaczyńskiego mnie proszę ostrzyć poproszę!