Hot autumn in politics

Looking at recent posts you might have inferred subject matters brought up recently depart more and more from what the blog should be mostly about. Time to get back to the core…

To politics…

The pre-election campaign has been in overdrive for a few weeks but I somehow do not feel that in three weeks I will go to the polls. This campaign in a way looks lacklustre for me, nothing really exciting has been going on. I do not know if it is good or bad, maybe I have too little time to keep track of the events in politics, but this campaign appears to me much different that all the recent ones (those in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2005 and 2007 and before early presidential election last year).

The first remarkable thing is that two fellow bloggers are running for parliament. Toyah goes in for a seat in the lower house from constituency Katowice from Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (hereinafter PiS) list, while Paulina can be found on Warsaw’s lists of Ruch Poparcia Palikota. I will not have a chance to vote for any of them, I actually do not know personally anyone from the lists in my constituency.

A few months ago it was quite sure that Platforma Obywatelska (hereinafter PO) would be the odds-on favourite of the autumn election. Today, as the most recent polls show the biggest oppositional party, PiS has caught up with the ruling PO and support for the latter is in some polls is less than five percentage points lower than for the former. Actually it is not an astonishing tendency. PO’s victory would be the first ever win of the ruling party in Poland after 1989. Each time before, Poles were sick of previous governments and wanted something other, but that is a negligible factor. Never before have Poles been so divided in terms of political views. There was a strong hatred towards PiS in 2007, now there is a strong hatred, but mostly towards PO, hostility towards PiS is still alive, media still favour PO, but electorate of PiS has built up strong backing and keeps growing in power. It is no longer passé to admit publicly one votes for PiS, in this respect things look much better than in 2007 when voters of stepping down PiS were really despised and it was cool to vote for PO. Today those who back Mr Kaczynski can hold their heads up high.

I see some reasons why support for PiS is on the rise:

- people are sick of success propaganda pursued by the current government and run out of patience,

- the issue of Smolensk has been shelved,

- the new strategy of the party sets out to build a new image of open-minded, moderate party which wants to develop Poland on foundations of traditional values in a modern way,

- plus again it promises the moon in terms of economics, as if they were capable of cracking down on rising costs of living, unemployment, etc.

And there is reason why I do not understand it. All other parties take part in debates, while PiS members only organise press conferences of give interviews, they do not want to discuss with other parties. Supporters of PiS say it is because media are biased, opponents claim in turn PiS members know they are not prepared for a substantial debate. The truth lies… Do not hope to find it out… It lies where it lies…

I sometimes dare to think PiS wants to lose the election and focus on fighting for ultimate power in 2015, taking over the whole power (majority of two-third in the parliament plus their president). It could be even quite convenient to them to let PO run Poland through the end of the impending second wave of economic crisis, repeat hackneyed theses of Poland in a total downfall, chaos, ruled by incompetent people.

The campaign and politics as a whole abounds in inept pronouncements. The most noteworthy examples from the recent months are:

24 August – PiS deputy and ecomomic expert Beata Szydło says in Tok FM radio Polish GDP is shrinking (in the second quarter of 2011 it rose by 4.3% year-on-year).

26 August – PiS deputy Adam Hofman comments on the new clip of Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (hereinafter PSL) saying guys from the countryside came to the capital and go bananas.

Early days of September – member of Monetary Policy Council, Zyta Gilowska, former finance minister in PiS-led government publicly backs PiS and declares her readiness to take part in a debate with the incumbent finance minister on public finance. Such activity would have been a blatant violation of central bank independence and derogation of Polish central banking law. This move wound me up as an economist and on 7 September I was going to write a short note to condemn her misdemeanour. Eventually on the same day, during the ending session of the council Zyta Gilowska was probably taken to the task by the president of the central bank, came to her senses and backed out of the idea of engaging in political activity.

14 September – Mr Rostowski, from the ruling PO, during his speech in the European Parliament scaremongers claiming that if the EU fails to overcome the ongoing economic crisis, it will lead not only to social unrest, but may end up with war over the coming decade. Are there things you can think of, but shouldn’t mention?

16 September – Grzegorz Napieralski, leader of Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (hereinafter SLD) calls PO to create a government if PiS wins the election. The perplexing idea is quickly and rightly retorted by the prime minister Donald Tusk who reminds Mr Napieralski that only Poles have a right to decide who will form the government. If PiS gets the biggest percent of votes it should build a new government. Who would dare to enter a coalition with them is a totally different story…

Of course this coverage is biased, but still less biased than posts on other blogs…

Now a quick look at agendas of two parties that have a chance to win the election.

PO wants to press ahead with modernisation of Poland with the method of small steps. No big liberal reforms, no difficult choices. PO underlines what it claims to have done over last 4 years and silently concedes its defeats. Unlike SLD it does not focus on reviving memories of IV RP nor wants to put Jarosław Kaczyński and Zbigniew Ziobro before the Constitutional Tribunal. In a word – realpolitik…

PiS also has an agenda, but it consists mainly of:

a) criticising feckless PO-led government,

b) taking pride in achievements of PiS-led government.

But seriously, as a biased recipient I have to say it is simply incoherent and lacks details. Let’s examine some parts of their economic agenda.

PiS wants to levy an additional tax on banks. At least one candidate of this party says banks are evil and if only possible would love to wipe them out. Coming back to the bank tax, no one says on what (equity, total assets, deposits, net income) the tax would be paid, but in the meantime PiS wants to boost banks’ income by extending the Rodzina na Swoim programme, under which the state pays half of the interest on mortgage loans to families who buy a new flat or house and meet specific criteria. The programme boosts demand on properties and consequently also property prices go up. This means the beneficiaries of the subsidies for the borrowers are (1) developers which can sell flats at higher prices and earn more and (2) banks which can charge clients higher margins (it is proved that loans under Rodzina na Swoim have higher margins, because cost for a client is lower than for a non-subsidised loan anyway). If property prices rise, fewer people can afford to buy a flat without a mortgage, so more people have to go to banks plus they have to borrow more. And so the banks earn more and debt burdens of households increase…

It is easy to say banks enslave people, but how does it impinge on the contribution PiS wants to make? Another thing I like in the agenda of PiS and speeches delivered by Mr Kaczyński is the phrases pieniądze się muszą znaleźć (money has to be found) and są zasoby do których można sięgnąć (there are resources that can be tapped). I have not heard until now where that money is, nor what those resources are. Pooling wool over poor voters’ eyes all the way… Or if somebody could enlighten me…?

Mr Kaczyński is of the opinion that the rich, not the poor should bear higher tax burdens. So why the heck did his party (with support of PO) resolve to cut the income tax marginal rates by 8 percentage points for the richest, by 12 percentage points for well-earning ones and by one, mere one percentage post for most Poles? Why did they cut sickness benefit contribution (składka rentowa) and grant tax deductible amount for each child under such conditions that the poorest could not deduct any amount? Key beneficiaries of all those moves are the well-off, it would be quite natural if those changes were pushed through by libreal PO, but they were passed in times of Polska Solidarna. Jarosław Kaczyński surely solidarised with the better-off.

If PO wins… Someone will surely say the election has been rigged.

If PiS wins… Someone will surely call Poles idiots, morons, etc.

If PiS wins… Life will be much more exciting.

If PiS wins… Maybe I will set up a Polish language blog on politics…

I do not think victory of Mr Kaczyński party would be a disaster, but I do not want it for Poland.  I do not want my country to follow the path of Hungary under Mr Orban’s administration. As much and as little.

Early fall, there's a cloud on the New York skyline

9/11 is one of few events in the history I remember well. Once, in the first anniversary of Smolensk disaster, I brought back memories of that day. Now there is no point in repeating them, there is no use in writing how that terrorist attack changed the world, dwelling on how unbelievable it was would sound like a cliche. As an economist I could address the topic by weighing up pros and cons of suspending trading on Wall Street by the end of the fateful week or going on about the impact of loose monetary policy pursued by Fed to buoy up US economy after 9/11 on formation of US housing bubble.

The economic aspects of 9/11 are apparently compelling, but before I got really interested in economics I had had a period in my life which had had its climax in Janaury 2008 (winter exam period) when I went through a silly fascination with 9/11 conspiracy theories. Over that one month not only did I underperform on my exams which cost me a lower scholarship in the subsequent semester, but I also downloaded several films (Loose change, The greatest lie ever sold, In the plane site, The secret evil of September the 11th, Zeitgeist) about 9/11 alleged conspiracies and watched them. There was a time when I deeply believed in those theories, with time I grew out of them. My sound mind tells me they are hogwash, but I do not have sufficient information and knowledge to verify all facts and allegations... Conspiracy theorists make use of the fact people are unable to substantiate their claims and this lets conspiracy theories thrive...

So when everyone else looks back on shock brought about by the events we witnessed exactly 10 years ago, or commemorates the victims of the attacks, let's look at some stuff everyone passes over today, although it is said one-third of U.S. citizens do not believe in official account of 9/11 attacks...

1. The attack was plotted by U.S government to crack down on middle-east regimes, instill fear in people and cut down on civil liberties...

2. Alternatively, the U.S. administration knew about the plans of attack but did nothing to prevent them, as it was a good pretext for neo-conservative administration to pursue their plans set out in paragraph 1...

3. There was a large number of transactions in shares of airlines and insurance companies before 9/11, with the most recognised trading in put options on shares of United Airlines executed the day before the attacks...

4. The twin towers did not collapse on their own, but were demolished with use of bombs planted inside them...

5. Moreover, WTC 7 was "pulled (down)" in the same way - the building did not collapse naturally...

6. Pentagon building was a hit by missile...

7. Something was attached to planes which hit WTC towers, alternatively those were no passenger planes...

And many, many other... (the list does not enumarate several reported UFO sightings caught on tape)

I dare to claim 9/11 was the same for the United States as Smolensk disaster for Poland. Both tragedies were very traumatic for both nations, both left a mark in political arenas. Despite many dissimilarities, such as number of fatalities and who they were for the countries, causes and circumstances or the events, they have something in common - both have not been and stand no chance to be explained in 100%. In both cases investigations following the tragedies were said to be intransparent. Whenever some obfuscation emerges, there is room for doubt, looking out for inconsistencies. Actually both 9/11 and Smolensk were so hard to believe that it is in a way natural that there are people who will keep scratching beneath the surface to find out what "the real causes" were. Ten years after 9/11 many people believe it was an inside job, and I am sure in ten years there will be people in Poland saying Tusk and Putin contrived it, the plane landed and was shuttered by a bomb, Russian agents killed those passengers who had survived the impact, the birch could not break off the left wing or the fog in Smolensk was artificial... It can't be helped...

Poland under construction

Or, if it rings a bell, Polska w budowie...

Not a political post this time. Beware through, the tetchy issue will have to return sooner or later, as soon as a politician who has no notion about economics will come up with an extraordinarily preposterous idea... The campaign hots up, but it kicked off before an official beginning, when the ruling party presented its brochure titled the same as my posting.

I do travel around Poland and I see the PO's catchphrase is not just a set of hollow words. Big injection of funds from EU has brought about a big progress in infrastructure development. When I travel in business taking photos raises immediately suspicions concerning the purpose of it (as if I acted with the detriment to my company), so I abide by stringent business trip policy guidelines and simply scrutinise construction with my eyes. But last Wednesday I travelled privately to Jelenia Góra and back, as my father and I were dropping off my mother to a sanatory there.

The coverage must begin with an indispensable landmark of Polish disgraceful roads. This traffic signage means you should expect to have the speed at which you are driving controlled by a funny device. Usually a driver who sees such sign slows down by 50 kmph. Abrupt braking may be potentially more hazardous than speeding, as a driver behind may not use the brake pedal as immediately as necessary.

And here comes the culprit. Inconspicuous, grey machine, quite often with its lens covered. This time I didn't see a single speed camera taking a shot of a speeding road hog. Some time ago the Polish parliament was about to pass a decree according to which speed camera dummies were to be removed. I don't know if it has been passed and if it has taken effect, but some of the cameras I spotted along the way looked fake.

To the right - the first photographed example of construction going on. An over 20-kilometre long section of S8 expressway linking Oleśnica and Syców. To be precise, the road should link Wrocław Psie Pole junction and Syców, the part of this road, namely bypass of Oleśnica has been completed a few years ago.

The day we ventured to Jelenia Góra the newly built motorway bypass of Wrocław was opened. The opening was scheduled for early afternoon hours, so around 10:00 a.m., when we reached Wrocław we drove the usual route of national road number 8 that runs (and takes, errr... used to take the whole traffic) through the city centre. Wrocław, no matter how charming it is, does not deserve to called a driver-friendly city. To the right - that's how a national road looked - wasn't it a shame. I like cobblestone, but it's not an appropriate road for transit traffic.

Trip through Wrocław had one benefit - I accidentally noticed the highest skyscraper in Wrocław, Sky Tower, also under construction. And in the foreground - a blue tram, a hint for discrenible eye the photo comes from Wroclove.

The stopover in Jelenia Góra lasted just half an hour. A shame we planned to go there and back within one day, as I'd love to roam around the town. I could only snap a street running towards the market square from the car window. Sightseeing beckons... And lack of true holidays over last two years makes itself more and more felt...

To the right - Jelenia Góra can't afford to lag behind with other regions where infrastructure is building up and it builds a flyover over national road number 3. I don't know for what reason it is erected, but Poland is experiencing an infrastructure construction boom, so not only private-funded construction booms lead to absurdities.

At 13:12, as we were approaching A4 motorway, the police opened the central section of Wrocław bypass motorway. No need to drive through the city again. On big junction before Bielany Wrocławskie we're turning left and just enjoy the ride... Traffic is rather sparse, I wonder if drivers knew about the opening and how many took a day off (Skyscrapercity forum told me later many did so) to celebrate opening of the bypass?

The most breathtaking part of the motorway (soon converted into expressway, to make it a toll-free road for cars) is the cable-stayed bridge - Most Rędziński, pride and joy of Wrocław's residents. I have to say I've never seen such a beautiful road in Poland, I'm looking forward to seeing something similar in Warsaw, part of it, linking Konotopa on the western fringes of Warsaw and ul. Puławska should be completed next year (construction has got behind schedule and pace of works is stunningly erratic).

An observant reader has surely noticed a missing piece in the photo coverage. These are unmade snaps of modernised Katowicka - national road number 8 between Rawa Mazowiecka and Piotrków Trybunalski. The dual carriageway was built in mid 1970s and was long due for reconstruction after which it will meet criteria of expressway. The reason why there are no photos of it is that I drove down and up this road and my father declined to save the horror of driving there for posterity. But if you really need to see what's going on there, get on to relevant page on Skyscrapercity forum.

920 kilometres covered within one day is not an enviable experience, but also one-day business trips look in the same way. We set off at 04:50 in the morning and pitched up home at 20:25, both my father and I were falling flat on our faces. Driving in such conditions is not a big pleasure, but when the big stride we are witnessing is made, driving around Poland will be faster and safer. The only pity is that EU will not be as open-handed as it was in 2007-2013 agenda and Poland itself will also fall short of money for infrastructural programmes. I only hope the pace of constrcution will only fall back rather than grind to a halt...

Story of my life*

Lit upon this just a moment ago, reluctant to rant over Bernanke's dithering, Poland under construction (maybe next week), independent members of monetary polic council backing a specific party or an insolent lout who said members parliament who hail from the countryside had gone bananas...

Random memories, teenage years, put into sublime words

11 September 2001

It's early fall

There's a cloud on the New York skyline

Innocence dragged across a yellow line

21 May 2011

True love can never be rent

But only true love can keep beauty innocent

20 September 2002

I took the money

I spiked your drink

You miss too much these days if you stop to think

You lead me on with those innocent eyes

You know I love the element of surprise

11 October 2002

Did I ask too much, more than a lot?

You gave me nothing, now it's all I got

12 October 2002

Three o'clock in the morning

It's quiet and there's no one around

Just the bang and the clatter

As an angel runs to ground

Just the bang and the clatter

As an angel hits the ground

5 November 2002

You say when he hits you, you don't mind

Because when he hurts you, you feel alive

Is that what it is?

Red lights, grey morning

You stumble out of a hole in the ground

A vampire or a victim

It depends on who's around

23 January 2003

Carnival

The wheels fly and the colors spin

Through alcohol

Red wine that punctures the skin

Face to face

In a dry and waterless place

14 February 2003

And if you listen I can't call

And if you jump, you just might fall

And if you shout I'll only hear you

14 April 2003

So sad to beseige your love so head on

Stay this time

Stay tonight in a lie

I'm only asking but I...

I think you know

28 June 2003

She runs through the streets

With her eyes painted red

Under black belly of cloud in the rain

In through a doorway she brings me

White gold and pearls stolen from the sea

She is raging

She is raging

And the storm blows up in her eyes

She will...

Suffer the needle chill

She's running to stand...

27 March 2004

You know he got the cure

You know he went astray

He used to stay awake

To drive the dreams he had away

He wanted to believe

In the hands of love

2 April 2004

I'm a man

I'm not a child

A man who sees

The shadow behidn your eyes

5 April 2004

You say love is a temple, love a higher law

Love is a temple, love the higher law

You ask me to enter, but then you make me crawl

And I can't be holding on to what you got, when all you got is hurt

29 June 2004

I want you to know

That you don't need me anymore

I want you to know

You don't need anyone

Or anything at all

28 September 2004

And we live by the side of the road

On the side of a hill

As the valley explode

Dislocated, suffocated

The land grows weary of its own

26 November 2004

And you feel like no-one before

You steal right under my door

And I kneel 'cause I want you some more

I want the lot of what you got

And I want nothing that you're not

18 March 2005

You were pretty as a picture

It was all there to see

Then your face caught up with your psychology

With a mouth full of teeth

You ate all your friends

And you broke every heart thinking every heart mends

You speak of signs and wonders

But I need something other

I would believe if I was able

But I'm waiting on the crumbs from your table

31 May 2005

Listen to me now

I need to let you know

You don't have to go it alone

And it's you when I look in the mirror

And it's you when I don't pick up the phone

Sometimes you can't make it on your own

11 September 2005

Oh, oh, oh...on borderland we run...

And still we run

We run and don't look back

I'll be there

I'll be there

Tonight

Tonight

14 October 2005

The glass is cut

The bottle run dry

Our love runs cold

In the caverns of the night

We're wounded by fear

Injured in doubt

I can lose myself

11 December 2005

Time? time...

Won't leave me as I am

But time won't take the boy out of this man

8 April 2006

No, nothing makes sense

Nothing seems to fit

I know you'd hit out

If you only knew who to hit

14 July 2006

You had to win

You couldn't just pass

The smartest ass

At the top of the class

27 July 2006

Desert sky

Dream beneath a desert sky

The rivers run but soon run dry

We need new dreams tonight

1 January 2007

If I could throw this

Lifeless lifeline to the wind

Leave this heart of clay

See you walk, walk away

Into the night

And through the rain

Into the half-light

And through the flame

If I could through myself

Set your spirit free

I'd lead your heart away

See you break, break away

Into the light

And to the day

To let it go

And so to fade away

To let it go

And so fade away

21 December 2007

Blinded you lost your way

Through the side streets and the alleyway

Like a star exploding in the night

Falling to the city in broad daylight

24 January 2008

It's no secret that a conscience can sometimes be a pest

It's no secret ambition bites the nails of success

7 August 2008

When I first met you girl

You had fire in your soul

What happened to you face of melting now?

25 September 2008

You're in my mind all of the time

I know that's not enough

if the sky can crack

there must be some way back

to love and only love

23 October 2008

One step closer to knowing

24 December 2008

See His mother dealing in a doorway see Father Christmas with a begging bowl

Jesus sister's eyes are a blister ... The High Street never looked so low

3 March 2009

Now this dry ground it bears no fruit at all

Only poppies laugh under the crescent moon

The road refuses strangers

The land the seeds we sow

Where might we find the land as white as snow

1 April 2009

It's not a hill, it's a mountain

As you start out the climb

24 July 2009

At the moment of surrender

I'm falling to my knees

I did not notice the passers-by

And they did not notice me

14 July 2009

You had to win

You couldn't just pass

The smartest ass

At the top of the class

24 Septmeber 2009

I must be an acrobat

To talk like this

10 April 2010

In the wind we hear their laughter

In the rain we see their tears

Hear their heartbeat

We hear their heartbeat

19 May 2010

You can dream

So dream out loud

You know that your time is coming 'round

So don't let the bastards grind you down

31 May 2010

He went deeper into black

Deeper into white

Could see the stars shining

Like nails in the night

22 August 2010

In my dream I was drowning my sorrows

But my sorrows, they learned to swim

Surrounding me, going down on me

Spilling over the brim

4 November 2010

Haven't seen you in quite a while

I was down the hold just passing time

Last time we met was a low-lit room

20 November 2010

Jesus can you take the time

To throw a drowning man a line?

19 March 2011

And it’s already gone too far

You said that if you go in hard

You won’t get hurt

30 June 2011

You had to win

You couldn't just pass

The smartest ass

At the top of the class

25 August 2011

If I could, you know I would

If I could, I would

Let it go...

This desparation

Dislocation

Separation

Condemnation

Revelation

In temptation

Isolation

Desolation

Let it go

* Compiled solely from U2 lyrics

Recharging batteries

Probably almost everyone, counting out Scatts, has already got bored with the topic of shaky stock markets, so this undeniably exciting issue will recede into background for a while and I'll focus on more down-to-earth stuff. I've had a busy weekend, the coming ones don't appear to give respite (longing for real restful holidays), but over the long mid-August weekend I had some time to recharge batteries...

On Sunday I brought my parents on taking a trip to Konstancin. The foray was quite short, the weather was perfect (sun, not to hot, not really cool) and batteries in my camera had long been waiting for charging up - took just a few snaps. To the right - view from a path running from rebuilt bridge over river Jeziorka towards the park. Water meadows are flooded, mosquitos assault, but the place enchants.

To the right - got into the park. The signage (probably - my guess) shows distances to twin cities to Konstancin. A few second after taking this photo I had to rush quickly from the pavement, as reversing bus on military number plates was attempting to crunch me. Shouldn't such parks have status of pedestrian precincts, with bans on entry for engine-propelled vehicles?

To the right - the main cultural attraction of the park in Konstancin - a bandstand, with some musicians getting ready for a performance. The stage, built recently shows some glitches in terms of technique of construction, but all in all this place should be here to offer entertainment to local residents and tourists. It has to be said it has a long tradition. My father would come here for dancing in his late teens, my paternal grandparents met here two years after WWII. May it look splendid...

On Monday morning I ventured for a bike trip around nearby villages. The weather stays perfect - +17C and sun. Warm, yet cool enough to wear a T-shirt without running a risk of breaking sweat. Bracing breeze is taking edge off heat and so off I go. To the right - empty street in Piaseczno - one can cycle safely when the traffic is so sparse - one of main advantages of riding a bike in the morning on Sundays or bank holidays.

To the right - first photo taken without stopping. Due to technical limitations of my bike and physical limitations of my legs I don't risk being fined for speeding. This is ul. Orężna in Piaseczno. One of favourite destination of walks with my mother and maternal grandfather in my childhood. Memories brought back; the place hasn't changed much since then, but unlike in 1990s this is not a dreamt-up place to live.

Why wouldn't I like to settle down here? Come to think of it. Rural landscapes, silence, no fumes, no noises, no... infrastructure. It's actually hard to get by here if you don't have a car at your disposal. Local buses run here a few times a day, you can catch one in morning rush hour, but if you happen to oversleep and come late, you're in the doghouse. The last one arrives here at 20:20 - much too early. Think of coming late from a party - you have three options: 1) don't drink and come by car on your own, 2) ask someone from your family to pick you up, 3) take a taxi. Each option has a drawback: 1) you can't draw pleasure from blissful state of intoxication, soberity is not conducive to socialising, 2) you are dependent on someone, 3) you fork out over 100 PLN for a ride from Warsaw (Metro Wilanowska)...

This time I fail to make a sharp photo without stopping a bike. This colourful building is a typical landmark of Polish rural landscape. Feels like I'm some 300 kilometres away from Warsaw, while in fact I'm less than 5 kilometres, as teh crow flies, from the city limits. As you can see, the owner did not bother to turn up and open the facility on bank holiday (according to Polish labour code, only shopowners can stand behind the counters on bank holidays).

I cycle further west to discover I don't know where I am. The signboard to the left says I'm cycling to Jazgarzewszczyzna (what a long name!), the one to the right opts for Łoziska. The truth probably lies in between, so the road must mark boundary between the two villages. As I'm snapping the signboards, symbols of Polish mistrust bark at me loudly. Suddenly one of them finds an open gate and makes me put away the camera to my pocket and test how quick I can pedal...

Having turned right in Bobrowiec I find myself on ul. Postępu running straight towards Warsaw, where its extension is ul. Karczunkowska. Bus stop with ZTM signage reminds me I'm still in the vicinity of Warsaw. This doesn't yet mean commuting from here is easy. Buses run just a few times a day, so if you miss one, you may have a problem. The traffic is still sparse. What a lovely day!

Crossed the intersection with road linking Piaseczno and Magdalenka and I'm heading north. I stop on the roadside to snap a beatiful field overgrown by weeds. In the distance - detached and semi-detached houses in Lesznowola. In six years S7 expressway running from Warsaw to Kraków should be here. According to plan this is also a site where a junction with local 721 road is about to be built. But these are years to come, before it happens. After Euro 2012 spurt, pace of construction is very likely to grind to a halt.

Some 500 metres up the road I again stop by to take a shot of a partly pulled down house. When I last was there in early June there was one more room on the first floor. Who used to live here? Why was it torn down in such weird way? Who administers it?

Turned right in Nowa Wola and I'm on my way towards Nowa Iwiczna. Reckless drivers tend to speed at empty ul. Krasickiego Nowa Wola, so I choose to cycle on empty pavement, built in 2008 after two tragic accident in which three pedestrians had been killed at the scene. And a classic snap - Warsaw skyline as seen from beyond the southern border of Warsaw. Skyscrapers are shrouded in a haze, as the air is wet, as it's been for a few weeks on. With dry air, the visibility would a whole lot better. Compact camera set at the highest possible resolution, maximum (4x) optical zoom in use - device is a bit too close to the low-end to rise to the occasion.

And at the very and - a photo from the archives. I wanted to put it up on Polandian, but fellow writers remonstrated me over chasing cheap sensation. Another shot of Warsaw skyline, taken on 8 August 2010 around 8:35 in the morning, from the corner of ul. Karczunkowska and ul. Raszyńska, I don't know if it is still Warsaw, Zamienie or Zgorzała. Click to enlarge, look carefully... Can you see anything strange?

When markets go haywire

August 2011 for many will go down in history as a period of increased volatility on the markets. Stock markets all over the world, Swiss franc and gold swung up and down, markets began to resemble a rollercoaster. This is probably one of more apposite metaphors rendering goings-on on the markets over last two weeks, but if you opt for a blunt comparison, get on to New York Post cover which drew a parallel between stock price quotations and a prostitute’s pants. I thought Polish tabloid Fakt beats anything else in terms of stupidity, but again I was wrong.

Looking back on the last weeks, the recent turmoil should not haven taken us aback. In June I even had a clear inkling of an upcoming tumble, as in the light of macroeconomic situation and recurring patterns markets tend to follow, what happened was absolutely predictable.

The bull market of 2009 – 2011. Hmm, am I not going too far by claiming the bull market is over? Well, technically it is, as stock indices have fallen by more than 20% from their peaks. OK, let’s start over. The last bull market began in February 2009 when economies were in the doldrums and stocks were down some 60% - 70% down from their peaks noted in 2007. Stimulus programmes aimed at reviving economies, cheap money injected into financial markets and scale of preceding bear market conjured up an abrupt bull market that lasted until August 2009. Within six months stocks soared by some 60% - 70%, then ensued the second wave of bull market, of moderate growth of price, intermingling with periods of downbeat expectations, such as those in early February 2010 or in late spring 2010 when Greece was about to go bust for the first time. With time, and as markets were flooded by cheap money printed by the FED, speculators got immune to bad news. Markets slowly rose to reach peaks in late April 2011. WIG20, the index of Warsaw Stock Exchange covering 20 blue chips (which will later be a benchmark for me) rose between 17 February 2009 to 28 April 2011 by 123% and peaked at 2,942 points. The invisible barrier of 3,000 points was close at hand, yet out of reach, just as 4,000 in October 2007 when WIG20 hit its ever-time high of 3,941 points. Then markets behaved typically (this means there was no speculative bubble) for a cyclical downturn. Peak was reached with difficulties, then stocks retreated and a slow descent ensued. The phase of descent which usually lasts between two and three months, here lasted slightly longer, but the scale of consequent sell-off made up for the long wait. In a typical scenario after the sell-off there’s a correction upwards and then begins the longest phase of bear market, when price gradually decline and more and more people lose their hope and sell stocks with losses, until the cycle reaches its trough, i.e. the moment when it just can’t be any worse.

I did expect it. I knew debt ceiling dispute in the United States could be a spark to set the flame on the markets and even began selling stocks and putting money on bank deposits. But as the fateful 2 August was drawing nearer and markets did not discount the technical-default scenario I assumed nothing bad would happen and stocks would even shoot up when the debt ceiling deal would be struck. Indeed, by means of give and take Democrats and Republican agreed to increase the debt ceiling and bring down government expenses, but this happened at hour eleven and did not put markets at ease.

I knew sooner or later things would look really dreadfully but put back the decision to sell all stocks, but after all, as Scatts said, I learnt a valuable lesson. On 2 August 2011, in the eve of the crash around 30% of my portfolio was in stocks, share with the biggest weighting was JSW, bought in IPO in early July and sold in only 20% (with profit).

Now let’s look at the timeline of the turmoil.


2 August 2011 – WIG20 drops by over 1%, although debt ceiling is poised to be raised and problem of the US default is postponed by two years.

3 August 2011 – WIG 20 drops by 3.26% and breaks the resistance at 2,600 points which was said to open the door for a bigger correction. It seems markets should get over the news on US debt deal. I don’t buy, nor sell.

4 August 2011 – during the trading session WIG20 floats below 3 August close, only after US market open it begins to decline. At the end of the day it plummets by 3.55%. I’m livid, this was bound to happen and I didn’t get rid of all stocks, to make it worse, some of my buy orders were executed and boosted my stock holdings.

5 August 2011 – I bet on that day the market should bounce back. It does for a moment when US non-farm payroll data are announced. Some of my take-profit orders are executed, I sell more or less the same securities as bought the day before. I’m calm, panic has reached its climax, now it’ll only get better. WIG20 down by mere 1.63%.

6 August 2011 – not a trading day, but I wake up to hear the news US sovereign rating was downgraded. A tsunami on the markets is in the offing…

8 August 2011 – I decide to make two bets – either market has discounted and nothing happens, or the S&P report on the downgrade will bring about the second, bigger wave of panic. To my surprise both scenarios materialised. In the morning stocks were up and I sold some and in the afternoon when market participants in the US set out to sell stocks, I bought the same stocks back at lower prices and inadvertently became a day-trader. When markets opened I sold all crappy stocks, incurring losses, to garner more money to buy shares in solid companies. WIG20 tumbled by 2.34%. Stock indices in the US fall by over 4% (DJIA) or devilish 6.66% (S&P 500).

9 August 2011 – I say to myself nothing lasts forever and again place buy and sell orders, waiting for any of possible scenarios to materialise. Buy will be executed, if stocks really plummet (price decreasing by at least 8%), sell will go if prices rise by only 1%. Sell-off continues and I keep buying stocks, average purchase prices decline. Despite corrective rallies in the US WIG20 falls by 3.20%, but it end the day much higher than intra-day drop by over 5%.

10 August 2011 – Anna Jantar’s song Nic nie może wiecznie trwać reverberates in my head, but I need a deep breath, I don’t try to buy nor sell anything. I need to think things over and protect my psyche. I wrote MA thesis on speculative bubbles and I know adverse market conditions can severely impact one’s mental health. At the end of another harrowing day (WIG20 down by 5.16%) I count my assets. An equivalent of one and a half of my monthly salary has vanished into the air. I knew there were risks in the game, this loss is still better than giant outstanding debts in Swiss franc my colleagues have…

11 August 2011 – in the morning, before going to work I transfer an amount of money that reduces share of safe assets in my portfolio to 50% to my brokerage account and make a huge bet that stocks will plummet again and place huge buy order at levels some 7% lower than Wednesday’s close on really solid stocks. Lucky me, this materialises, blue chip stocks are very volatile and I managed to buy a lot very near troughs. Then the market skyrockets and within a day on some stocks I gained 10% This proves still too little to make up for my previous losses. My move is an example of aggressive speculation that could or even should have ended in a very painful way, but somehow I was in the luck and it didn’t. On that day WIG20 reached the intra-day low of 2,115 points. I checked and the last time it had been that low on 30 July 2009. Over two years of bull market wiped out within a week! Despite losses I draw pleasure from experiencing it. At the end of the day WIG20 rises by 4.53%

12 August 2011 – I decide to sell some stocks of JSW which hit me the most, if they rise, I do so and don’t try anything else. Everything indicates the panic is gone and stocks should make a move upwards and give me the chance to recover my losses.

Try to ask me what future holds – I won’t tell you, I’m helpless. On one hand I still hold the view that bear market is inevitable due to macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand companies are doing well and their stocks seemed very cheap recently. A rebound would be a typical scenario subsequent to the sell-off we witnessed, but what then.

My speculative strategy is not to buy anything, unless prices drop more than 10% below lows recorded on Thursday. If my stocks reach the price near my break even point, I’ll start selling them gradually. There is no other way, time of risky actions taken to win back money is over, now it’s time to stay on the safe side. If market returns to levels above 2,500 points I still won’t be buying anything, but will protect my profits by stop-loss orders and pull out of the market if it goes under again. In the long run there are too many problems to let markets go up. I think I’ll prefer a bank deposit, but hey, will I be able to live without little dose of gambling stock market offers? Safety should be then more important to me than pleasure…

In fact this is all about psychology. Normally when the market goes haywire and plummets as it did over last two weeks, people fall into panic, institutional traders sell because their stop-loss orders activate, but someone buys these stocks. Thank God I kept a cool head and didn’t panic, although there were moments I wanted to sell all stocks just to keep my head quiet and forget about the nightmare of mounting losses. I persevered, my first big sell-off when I was in the market didn’t break my back and thanks to a stupid, risky strategy of catching a falling knife I didn’t lose a lot (now my loss equals only one monthly salary). This lesson has to be learnt.

Self-censorship

The biggest drawback of infrequent blogging is that I can't keep up with goings-on as I would like to. Last Thursday I wrote a short post, but this was just an exception that proved the rule... Last Monday I hatched the idea of writing about Mr Sikorski hapless utterance on Warsaw Uprising, but in the meantime markets crashed, Polish former deputy prime minister died and United States had their credit rating downgraded. Time to catch up...

1. Mr Sikorski's blunder...
Is an ideal starting point for a discussion on limits of free speech. Two days before the anniversary he dared to announce on Twitter (or twitted) Warsaw Uprising had been a national disaster we should learn a lesson from and linked to a webpage run by opponents of cult of Uprising. The backlash came immediately. Politicians from his party described his statement as inappropriate and politicians from PiS deemed it to be flagrant. The harsh reaction speaks volumes about state of free speech and situation of dissenters in Poland. Everyone can have their own views, but if they are not in line with generally accepted ideology, please keep quiet...

But let's take the issue apart. I wrote two years ago a post on the Warsaw Uprising and haven't changed my mind since then. There's no need to repeat what I said then, so let's just invoke the figures that should get stuck in your minds. 180,000 civilisans dead, those alive driven out of the city, capital of Poland virtually wiped off the map. Given the death toll and scale of destruction, wasn't it a disaster? Didn't Mr Sikorski have courage to say what other people are afraid to say? As I mentioned in the posting dated 1 August 2009, my own family was also affected by the uprising and my parents' and mine opinions have been shaped by what we have heard at homes. For us, the uprising was an act of not only great courage but also of great desperation. I mused about those young people who couldn't wait to get back on their oppressors and probably if I had lived then, I would take the same decision. I would fight, even if I knew it had been a losing battle. Therefore I believe we must foster rememberance of those days and commemorate those brave young people who fought to free their beloved city, pay tribute to thousands of innocent civilians who died in numerous carnages, but I refuse to speak highly about generals who masterminded the whole operation. The price to pay seems for me too high. Some would argue, it was worth doing, because Stalin's army waited until insurgents in Warsaw breathed their last and it halted advance of communist soldiers into Western Europe. Uncanny, yet logical hypothesis, but do Westerners care???

2. Andrzej Lepper's death
The news that former deputy prime minister in Jarosław Kaczyński was found hung in the head office of his party in Warsaw hit me on Saturday. Officially, he committed suicide, all evidence indicate he did it himself, only the question about reasons remains unanswered. Some speculate about family problems, some claim financial troubles pushed him to take the last step. But hang on, sex scandal problems have long been sorted out, his son was said to be terminally ill, but hasn't died yet. Grief after son's death could push him to a suicide, but not the illness. Did he know too much, was it in someone's vested interest to liquidate him? I know this sounds like conspiracy theory, yet such concepts spring up whenever there's a lot of room for doubts and an event is hardly believable. Andrzej Lepper was a strong man, he fought his way into the parliament, went through a stormy coalition that wiped his party off the policital arena. Came hell or high water, he would stay afloat, so what could cause a breakdown that allegedly made him grab a rope and kick away a stool?

3. Market crash.
Shit happens sometimes. We haven't seen such a panic since 2008 and the worst is not over. On Friday when markets opened, panic sell-off reached its climax. After a few minutes of trading stock prices bounced back and for the rest of the day stayed between 1% and 2% below Thursday's close. There was a moment, just after upbeat US pay-roll data was released, when some stocks were quoted higher than the day before. To paraphrase the old saying - what comes down, must go up. After a three-day sell-off when the panic was gone, speculators should step in and bet a rebound. Hopes for such scenario were dashed on Saturday morning when S&P agency announced it downgraded US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+ and reaffirmed negative outlook. Two other rating agencies upheld their grades of triple A. What the implications for the markets will be then? Judging by plummeting indices in Middle-East countries, another wave of panic is about to spill over and the coming week will be marked by fear and gloom. But on the other hand every man with a head screwed in has long realised United States are bankrupt and their debt service capacity is conditioned only on possibility to roll it over. So does a downgrade mean anything? From an economic point of view nothing has changed, but from technical perspective, the downgrade will force investment institutions that build their investment portfolios according to specific guidelines to reshuffle the securities they invest in. Swiss franc and gold will probably remain safe havens what will send prices of both to new record-breaking levels. The troubles must be really serious, if governors of central banks called a meeting together to map out a plan to contain turmoil on financial markets. I know they have little chance to do so. Katharsis is under way and has to last until the air is cleared (even if I am to pay the price as well)...

Now I'll take the opportunity to say goodbye to my capital gains tax for 2011. According to Polish tax law, losses can be carried forward, so this might be a good moment for a farewell with part of possible capital gains tax for 2012. I came to terms with the losses (an equivalent of my monthly salary - could have been worse), now it's time to work out a plan how to recover from this. Free fall of stocks may last a day, two, or three, but on the markets nothing lasts forever and the direction must change, as it always happens after the slump, the subsequent reversal will be abrupt. Now the goal is to catch the right moment and win something back. In the middle and long-term I would keep away from the market or stay in or out of it only for speculative purposes. That's just money, one-third of my all savings, recovery rate is still much higher than in the case of loan to my ex-friend gambler, I'm in good health, I have a job, no major problems, no debts.

Chin up! It's just the second melt-down. I hope this time we'll learn from the crisis, because as I've repeatedly claimed, the recent one, or the ongoing so far one, has taught us nothing.

Have a good week and don't panic!

Wealth evaporating

When stock markets tumbled on Blue Monday in Janaury 2008 at the news of oncoming recession I stood aside...

When Lehman Brother went bust in September 2008 and stocks nosedived, I kept away from risky assets

When within first six weeks of 2009 stock indices fell by 25% I held my money on bank deposits and was glad to be offered high interest rate.

Even in early February 2010 when a wave of panic wreaked havoc to stockholders I was out of stocks as I had managed to pull out two weeks earlier.

So why the fuck haven't I sold out stocks this f*cking time... Par for the course. I had predicted it, I knew it was bound to happen. Greece is actually bust. Other PIIGS countries are on a brink of insolvency. USA is bankrupt, despite its prime credit rating. Macroecomomic data clearly show world economy is poised at least for a slowdown, if not for a recession. Double-dip recession. It must have happened, so why the hell did I hang back on disposing of risky assets?

No, I'm not complaining because I incurred a loss equal to my monthly salary within two days. I took a chance and this was a part of the game. I'm f*cked up just because tumbling market didn't take me aback and I did nothing to protect my assets. Tough luck...

Now cool down... This is just a panic, stock prices will rebound when greed takes over from fear and then I'll jump out of the market. Let's face the truth, this is how the bear market begins. Macroeconomic data prove the standing of more and more economies, including the Polish one, is getting worse. Also stock markets follow a recurring pattern. Indices peaked a few weeks ago, then stock prices declined slowly and yesterday and today the decline turned into a full-blown waterfall, wailing wall, free fall or whatever. Then comes the correction. When the panic is gone, speculators will begin buying up "cheap" stocks, after an uptick the prices will be going down for months, until we see the trough. There will be a moment, just as two and a half years ago when everyone could only see abyss. This is when the light in the tunnel comes up...

Cheer up... :)

Not a good July for holidaymakers...

At least for those who decided to spend it in Poland. July 2011 has been one of the wettest Julies in my lifetime, so those who ventured to Mazury or to the seaside did not get a chance to enjoy much sunshine and warmth. If my memory serves me right, there were very few sunny days over the passing month. And a good indicator for my memory is a frequency of watering plants in the garden. I haven’t done it for weeks and this means last weeks must have been extraordinarily wet, as the soil in my garden is rather sandy and it dries up after rainfalls immediately. At least it used to, as for some five weeks it hasn’t had any chance to return to its typical dryness again.

Excellent weather reporting site, run by a Spanish organisation Ogimet, proves my memory does serve me right. Statistics for Warsaw that exclude the last day of July give clear evidence: the minimum temperature of +8.8C was recorded on 24 July, the highest of +28.1C on 14 July, average temperature reached +18.1C, so almost one degree fewer than long-term average, but this year’s July was in turn much colder than those from last years. Last time it was similarly cold in July 2004, when temperature averaged out +17.9C. In 2007 July also wasn’t particularly hot with average temperature of +18.8C, but then we had a hot spell with temperatures hitting +35C interspersed throughout cold (as for July) snaps. This year weather hasn’t been actually changeable. Daily temperature amplitudes have stayed low, weather for most of the month has been the same, even rainfalls have been distributed evenly, and despite high precipitation there has been no big flood, but many minor inundations…

Warsaw saw two days when weather gave its inhabitants particularly rough rides. On Wednesday, 20 July, in the afternoon, a huge downpour paralysed the whole city, but those were the southern districts that got the biggest drenching. I left the office at 17:30, accompanied by two colleagues. One of them looked at the sky, seized up the clouds are predicted some little rain would set in. When I left the tram in the centre I turned back to see the colour of the sky over Mokotów and slightly aghast made my way to the underground. I had had a similar situation on 3 August 2010 and had a precise inkling of an impending downpour. I was right, the rain was so heavy that it was impossible to get out of the underground station. To the right, a road out of Metro Wilanowska bus terminus and P&R at 18:40. I waited a while for the rain to ease off, observed vehicles moving through the puddle to see where it was most shallow and finally drove home. As I was fording my way through the small pond I hit a number plate that had come off another car and a guy in fiat punto who drove in front of me broke off the front bumper of his car. The rest of the road home was all downhill… On many roads in Warsaw water was knee-deep and many cars got stuck in the puddles. I have a recipe for driving through such huge muddles – slowly, but not very – first gear, speed of some 10kmph, 1,500 revolutions per minute – the engine runs smoothly and steadily. Even though, I’m always anxious when I drive and the car encounters too much water – in 1998 during a huge downpour our car then (a one-year-old Rover 214) packed up on the middle, south-bound lane of Al. Witosa in Warsaw. Visibility was low and other drivers speeded despite pouring rain. Fortunately, none rear-ended our car. The cause of that breakdown were defective ignition coils. Last year the ignition coils packed up after two days of driving in heavy rain and through numerous puddles. Mechanics from Renault garage said they had been long overdue for replacement…

The other downpour, wreaking havoc to Warsaw on Wednesday, 27 July again laid bare how badly drained some places in Warsaw are. Heavens opened before dawn and it rained dogs and cats for a few hours. The way to work was undisrupted by any traffic impediments, except for a waterlogged street in Mysiadło. Problems began when I got off the Centrum underground station. To the right – a pavement between the entrance to underground station and W-wa Śródmieście railway station. People tried to waddle through ankle-deep water, yet few risked treading through the area where puddle was the deepest. I tried to pass it by heading towards Pałac Kultury – also to no avail – here only the higher parts of paved area weren’t flooded, but rainwater was running beneath pedestrians’ shoes.

To the right – on the same day – the lasts section of the obstacle course called ‘way to work’ – this is a pedestrian passage between the fence of second underground line construction site and Rondo Daszyńskiego. Even a small precipitation leaves one big puddle between the fence and concrete crash barrier. Pedestrian have to beware – firstly they must watch out for inconsiderate drivers who can splash water from puddles on the road on them and soak them up completely, secondly, as it was many times impossible to walk there, city authorities have put up some plastic steps to let workers from nearby office buildings to tread from one step to another and get into the other side of the puddle without having shoes and socks drenched. Unfortunately, the steps are slippery, I usually don’t risk going there and take a longer route around the whole roundabout, which is not problem-free, as the terrain is anything but flat and water flows into small basins…

I could grumble about the inclement weather, but I have to say I like it. There are some nuisances, such as huge puddles and accompanying air humidity which makes me break sweat even if the temperature is only +20C. (insertion: I wish to lodge a complaint about quality of air inside Warsaw’s public vehicles. In underground carriages and in trams it’s much hotter than outside and, to boot, close. There were years when it was always cool in the summer in the underground and riding it was a pure pleasure, why did it cease?) Actually I got used to such weather and I get on with this. It’s much, much better than unbearable heat of +30C, clear sky and drought, but on the other hand I feel sorry for the holidaymakers. I remember July 2000 when rains fell even more often, average temperature was 1.5 degrees lower and spending holidays when the weather’s so bad is not an enviable experience.


On Friday I went to town by public transport only. Commuting half way by car is convenient, but exudes a feeling of some isolation. My route was not the quickest, but I decided to take a train from Jeziorki (see classic pics of converging tracks) and this involves getting to the station by two buses (no suburban-zone ticket again), to see the progress of construction of Warsaw southern bypass. Much hasn’t changed since mid-June and a fellow SGH student Jakub Warszauer is totally right to claim he hasn’t seen a road with such unequal progress of works. On some sections the road is not ready, but actually passable, on some sections nothing has been done. May the works on junctions speed up and there will be a chance that it is opened in the second half of 2012.

Leaving the office I somehow anticipated traffic will be stationary and my guess was right – see the snap of ul. Towarowa – vehicles moving in snail’s pace in both directions. The same on all streets around, in. Al. Jerozolimskie, Al. Krakowska, ul. Puławska. This is what I call „holiday Friday afternoon jam” – traffic jams on Fridays during holidays are worse than on normal working days when schools are opened. And this makes me ponder upon the factors determining traffic density. Just look – in non-holiday period ul. Puławska in the morning between 7:00 and 7:30 a.m. is totally jammed. In the summer the traffic is not sparse, yet I make it from home to P&R Wilanowska in 20 minutes and drive no faster than 80 kmph. How many car users have to give up on taking this road to make it passable? Given that in my office I observe around 30% of staff are on holiday, some car users don’t have to drop their children to school and some people who normally commute by public transport use their cars, I estimate that the traffic volume is some 35% lower than over the school year. So let’s say if number of cars is reduced by one-third, commuting by car becomes worth considering…

Oddly enough, around an hour ago the sun chased away the clouds, but it didn’t take long, as a big storm cloud is rolled in from the west and the rain lashed down a few minutes ago.

Forecasters say August should bring more sunny days and temperatures typical for summer. Personally I’d prefer the current weather to stay on, but my sympathy for hapless holidaymakers tells me to quell these thoughts and long for some summer heat. It won’t be that bothersome as August nights are shorter and even with day-time highs of over +30C, mornings should salvage us with a cooling breeze…

Safety?

Never, ever have I had such problems finding an apposite title to a post. I've sat for some ten minutes trying to come up with a sentence that would best render the purport of the posting. 'Safety' is not an ideal title, but seems to be the closest common denominator for what I want to write about.

The initial idea for this weekend's blogging dose was to lay out my take on commuting, but after reading two other posts on it, and having left comment to one of them, there' s little to add, and another topic emerged in the meantime.

Recent weeks brought a spate of tragic events. Unwarranted tragic events...

18 June 2011 - Amy Winehouse is to kick off with her concert tour in Belgrad, but is too intoxicated to perform. After an hour of wait, she comes up to the stage, gibbers something, audience hook her down. Her other concerts are cancelled. Did anyone think over a month ago that on 23 July 2011 she would be found dead in her house in London?

29 June 2011 - two home-made bombs go off in Kraków, the people are injured,
14 July 2011 - another home-made bomb explodes in Kraków, one man is injured,
17 June 2011 - fourth home-made bomb explosion in Kraków within a month, another man injured.

Anything in common? All causualties were mullitated by home-made bombs, planted in shopping bags. All casualties run businesses. Motives of the perpetrator remain in the realm of conjectures, but as the man who quite probably is behind the explosions, was detained two days ago, residents of Kraków can finally have a sigh of relief. Can they feel safe now?

10 July 2011 Sunday - a cruise boat sinks without warning in Russia. Current findings point at human errors and bad technical condition of the ship as causes of the disaster. Death toll: 119. Could it be predicted?

Norway is an atypical country. Its residents are ranked among the happiest people in the world, the country has tremendous deposits of oil and gas, revenues from extraction of natural resources are not wasted but put aside into special ageing fund that should shield the country's finances against demographic problems. Outside European Union, yet prosperous, with society famous for its tolerance and low criminality rates. Seemed to look like a heaven on earth...

22 July 2011, aftenoon - the picture of paradise breaks apart. Firstly bombs go off in government buildings in the capital of Norway. Death toll there is considerbaly low, only 7 people died and several were injured. Later this attack turned out to be just a prelude to a bigger disaster. Some two hours later, a murderer killed almost 100 participants of a youth camp organised by the ruling party. The culprit did admit his responsible and described his deeds as "gruesome but necessary". Could it be foreseen? Did this carnage express some people's hatred towards multiculturalism, permissive societies, other religions, openess, tolerance? How will it affect the trustful and tolerant people of Norway?

Still we have more questions than answers. The post is kind of messy, as each and every note written out of duty rather than inspiration. May the next week bring some revelations on me... Before this happens, come along with some musings on the topic broached...