A city of contrasts

An opportunity of doing somebody a service, driving the newly built motorway, popping over to Łódź and being reimbursed costs of petrol could not be missed. Oddly enough with hindsight it turned out I was not the only one to visit Łódź yesterday – fellow blogger Michael and his son took the same journey, also by car.

I haven’t checked how long it took my to cover the distance between the suburbs of Warsaw and “eastern centre” of Łódź, nor the time needed to get there. I think it was roughly two hours each way, minority of which was spent on the new 93-kilometre long A2 motorway. Getting to the motorway from Łódź is not a nuisance, but reaching it in Warsaw is a bigger challenge. I decide to take the simplest route, namely: Puławska -> Rzymowskiego -> Marynarska / Hynka / Łopuszańska / Kleszczowa -> Chrobrego -> Dźwigowa (the infamous tunnel under the tracks after years of repair was opened on 6 June) -> Połczyńska, and from there I turned onto S8 expressway, which in Konotopa transforms into S2 expressway and then before Pruszków the road narrows from three to two lanes (fairly enough) and receives a status of a motorway. A2 between Pruszków and Stryków near Łódź will become a toll road in 2014, the toll is expected to be 0.10 PLN / kilometre, which is still a reasonable charge. Motorway operated by the Polish state will have toll caps imposed by the EU, while operators of those built under public-private partnership are given a free rein to rip the drivers off.

Getting to the motorway from the southern fringes of Warsaw will be facilitated, when S2 expressway, linking junction Konotopa west of Warsaw and ul. Puławska is completed. Judging by the photo taken today, even next year completion is not feasible. The sluggishness of both general contractors of the Southern bypass of Warsaw is mind-boggling for me. How come Gdaka (stands for National Road and Motorway Agency) has not put its foot down – construction of A2 motorway got under way a year later then works on S2 and the former is finished, while progress on the latter is more than a crying shame.

The traffic, as indicated on Michael’s photo (I haven’t taken any snaps, driving and taking photos at the same time is anything but prudent, there are plenty of shots on a relevant Skyscrapercity forum), was kind of sparse, as heavy vehicles are not allowed to take this road. Borderlines between sections are easily recognisable – the one between D and E sections can be distinguished by different colour of noise barriers, the other middle section – C and the longest and closest to Łódź – A, are marked by sights of unfinished infrastructure, speed limits and lack of the last layer of Tarmac (only section A). I didn’t drive fast (110 – 102 kmph) to keep the petrol consumption rather low (with headwinds on my way to Łódź it wasn’t low despite my efforts and due to air-con turned on), but didn’t let the car move below 100 kmph and found the speed limits unjustifiable. 100 kmph on section C is laughably low, 120 kmph would surely be more appropriate and 100 kmph instead of 70 kmph would be reasonable for section A given the quality of tarmac laid there. Driving too slow on a high-speed-motorway is dangerous as well and can distract a driver. You are more likely to cause an accident when you drive 70 kmph than if you drive 120 kmph, as the faster you drive (within reason), the more attention you have to pay to driving and with mere 70 on your speedometer, you run a risk of falling asleep behind the wheel.

In spite of being formally unfinished, the road’s beautiful, but driving it I couldn’t resist from pondering upon the misery of companies that have built it and who have paid the ultimate price for this contract. Chinese contractor has gone bankrupt and left Poland in mid-2011, lead co-contractor DSS has gone insolvent many months ago, hundreds of subcontractors have not been paid by the contractors, several have been declared tax criminals (they had issued invoices which had not been settled, but had been obliged to pay tax on their revenue) and lost all their personal assets just not to go to prisons. CEO of Strabag, contractor of section D moaned about loss incurred on the contract as a whole.

Unlike in Warsaw, the motorway doesn’t take you to the perimeters of the city. You slip off in Stryków and then head for Łódź via National road number 14. This shouldn’t take you long and soon will you be able to reach your destination. In terms of friendliness to drivers, Łódź surely beats Poznań, Wrocław and Gdańsk. Signage is well-visible and with a map on my knees (I haven’t upgraded to GPS) I could easily find where I am and where to go. Having dealt with what I’d been requested to do, I drove north towards Plac Wolności and left the car for half an hour to stroll down ul. Piotrkowska, the city’s pride and joy and pedestrian precinct.

I parked the car at the corner of ul. Pomorska and ul. Wschodnia (look at this place in Google Earth Street View) and realised why Łódź should not host football fans for Euro 2012. Not the obvious reason that the city doesn’t have a splendid stadium, not even how it looks, but who you can meet there. Just upon leaving the car I was accosted by a “car-minder”. It functions very simply – the car park is formally unpaid and not guarded, but some dirty, unemployed, often disabled people offer to take a look at your car while you’re away. I politely turned down this offer and walked away. Some ten minutes ago I recalled my father’s friend once told such person to f*ck off and when the returned, the car-minder was gone, but a dent on his brand-new Opel’s boot door was left…

I decided not to worry about my nine-year-old, not insured against theft and other damages car. A car, as any other device should serve you, not the other way round. I wandered to Plac Wolności (a blend of architectonic styles – pre-war tenements, communist-era blocks and a new building of a brokerage firm – who allowed for this?) and then south down ul. Piotrkowska, stared at mostly dilapidated buildings to come to a sad conclusion there is not much to take delight in. Façade of one tenement has been renovated, but pieces of plaster are falling off the other’s wall. Front façades are clean, but while peeking into the gates you see squalid backyards. It was Saturday, but I couldn’t spot many tourists. Most people hanging around were locals, most of who couldn’t boast about high social status, nor haven’t taken a bath and changed their clothes for at least a week.

Over the last decade the city has made a stride, but still lags behind most bigger cities in Poland. In terms of population it probably is still the second biggest one, despite rising outflow of inhabitants, mostly to Warsaw, but the quality of the population leaves a lot to be desired. I was near the centre of Łódź, quite near splendidly renovated Manufaktura shopping mall and on the high street and was confronted with dreadful poverty. As I was driving back towards road no. 14 I again glanced at ramshackle buildings and their God-forsaken dwellers and I began to ask myself whether I was the second biggest city of Poland or Romania. Bleak is the city, with huge districts of poverty from which no one will lift their residents and huge estates of panel-building blocks, some refurbished, some not, but all looking equally gloomy. The latter reminded me of Bemowo in Warsaw, I wonder why I find Bemowo so depressing, while in Ursynów, which has a quite similar architecture, I feel well…

Football championship musings

More careful readers are wondering why this post has appeared at all. I was going to be on holiday, yet for the whole fortnight preceding the outset of it, I had been struggling problems with sore throat, then I came down with laryngitis (the prescribed antibiotic did not cure me), which eventually morphed into a fully-fledged bronchitis, with typical symptoms, such as wheezing in the chest and high fever, in the eve of my departure.

So eventually, instead of setting off to get some rest and enjoy sightseeing, I ended up stranded at home and for three days even in bed. I wonder why some people call it “leisure”. You feel off-colour, dizzy, your activities are confined to reading books and newspapers or watching films. Admittedly, touching the culture is highly commendable and even recommendable if in your everyday hustle you have little time to do it, so staying in bed gives a chance to catch up. Inactivity tears me apart!

I got a sick leave, so holidays I took at work will be cancelled and I will be entitled to take days off later. As for now, I am on my way to recuperate for good and plan to set off again on Sunday. Unfortunately I will also have to return on Sunday to fulfil all my obligations at work. But I will manage to squeeze my plans into that short period anyway.

Being on a sickie also helped me avoid all tribulations triggered in Warsaw by Euro 2012. I did observe the football craze last Friday, on inauguration day. Hundreds of fans were hanging around the centre of the capital from early morning. In the afternoon the city was full of fans, dressed in white and red attires, most heading towards the National Stadium or the fan zone. Fortunately I was not attacked by anyone, as inadvertently I was wearing blue jeans trousers and a blue shirt with white stripes, so I was clad in colours very similar to the Greek flag.

The worst day during the championship in Warsaw was supposed to be Tuesday, when Russia : Poland match was played. Before the sporting events, Russians fans decided to march collectively towards the stadium. Some said this parade was held to commemorate 400th anniversary of siege of Moscow, but Russians have not screamed out any political mottos. The Group was attacked by Polish hooligans (not mistake for football fans) and eventually 184 persons, including 156 Poles, were detained. Some have already faced charges.

It was not meant to be an uneventful day, but unlike many commentators, I realise it could have been much worse. Widespread riots have not broken out, relatively few innocent people have been injured, I have not caught out any reports of shop windows or cars vandalised. Polish policing forces and true football fans have risen to the occasion. Both Polish and Russian fans merrily celebrated the 1:1 draw until late night – this is how the football fiesta should look.

Nevertheless, I am still appalled by the atmosphere that surrounded the game. Many Poles’ attitude towards the event was that it was a matter of honour to beat Russians, our ever-lasting enemy and tormentor. The key goal was to wpierdolić ruskim (literally and to put it mildly, ‘to beat up Russians’), both on the football stadium in the match, as well as to show the Russian football fans they have not come to a friendly country. Some hools did manage to demonstrate their hostility towards Russian football fans, but generally relationships between the two nations have not been shuttered in the wake of reprehensible incidents.

The political backlash has also made my hackles rise. Generally the match had a political and historical setting and given the rancour between the two countries, this was hard to avoid. But reactions seem inappropriate to me.

Deputy Mariusz Błaszczak from PiS pointed out that rowdy Russians have provoked a scuffle. OK, taking into the stadium a huge “THIS IS RUSSIA” transparent was out of place, but the very march had no political purport. If there was a sporting event in Russia on 15 August, Poles should also be granted a right to stage a march. Even if Russians were to demonstrate their superiority over Poles, the best way to cope with such acts is to let them pass unnoticed. Do not respond, if the have a peaceful character!

Major of Warsaw apologised to all football fans for misdeeds of Polish hooligans. Agreeably, a proper official gesture following the street battles. But why the hells has prime minister Tusk apologised to president of Russia for the hapless goings-on? Such acts of violence do accompany football matches, so why hell should this become a topic of official talks between the statesmen? Is the foreign policy towards Russia indeed run on knees?

In ancient times wars and conflicts were suspended during Olympic games. Now animosities are unlikely to be shelved. Instead the atmosphere of impending clash is being heated up by sensation-chasing media and politicians who never miss the opportunity to play on voters’ emotions… This will take generations to change.

For an optimistic ending, Poland still stands a chance to stay in the championship, if our team wins with Czech Republic on Saturday. This is conceivable, and if it happens, despite my lack of faith in the Polish team, I will be immensely proud of them.

Time to take back the prophecy of doom

OK, Poland has not made such significant stride in infrastructure development, as Mr Tusk had promised in his inaugural speech in November 2007, but the progress is visible. Almost all roads, planned to be finished before the football championship, are still under construction, some long behind schedule, but road-builders have pulled up their sleeves and prepared a huge surprise for motorists.

A lot is being built in Poland, but every observer’s eyes have been focused on the 91-kilometre long section of A2 motorway linking Warsaw to Łódź and then with the European network of motorways. At the beginning of April, in my road construction programme summary I wrote:

A2 motorway – great to have a toll road (with some short free of charge sections) all the way from the German border east to Stryków, where on a big junction A1 and A2 one day will meet. But then in Stryków masses of football fans travelling from the western Europe will end their journey via up-to-the standard roads and will continue the drive to Warsaw through old, congested National Road 2. There’s no chance that two out of five sections of A2 between Łódź and Warsaw forsaken in June 2011 by bankrupt Chinese companies will be finished, or at least passable. Funnily enough, two sections near Warsaw are almost finished, so there’s a contingency plan that they are opened, as scheduled (the one closest to Warsaw even one month before deadline), but does it make any practicable solution. The motorway would end in the middle of nowhere somewhere near Grodzisk Mazowiecki. For the locals – a great link to the capital, for transit traffic – a useless facility..

Given the progress of works at that time, I could not believe this road would be opened just before Euro 2012. I am not ashamed of my lack of faith in road-builders. I dare to claim my pessimism was fully justified. Only as time went by, it faded and gave way to glimmers of hope in completion before the sports event. A2, being one of very few roads planned to be opened before Euro 2012, was divided into five sections, marked with letters from A to E (A – closest to Łódź, E – closest to Warsaw), each built by a different lead contractor and set of subcontractors. Works kicked off late – in autumn 2010. This delay in putting together all the necessary documentation and obtaining all official permits meant deadline for completion was very tight. Tenders for two sections were won by a Chinese consortium COVEC. The Asian company bid to build a motorway at dumping price and hence beat all competitors. The contract in Poland, deliberately quoted much below real costs, was, in COVEC’s plans, a way to get foothold on the European market. Unfortunately, COVEC’s financial planners have overestimated financial strength of their company and in mid-2011 the bankrupt Chinese contractors left the unfinished road, unpaid subcontractors and guarantees issued by Chinese banks with which the Polish government still hassles. Construction works have been halted for two months, before resumption in late July 2011. Section A was taken over by Eurovia-led consortium, while building of section C, with the biggest delay, was conducted since then by Dolnośląskie Surowce Skalne. The latter firm has also overreached itself. It caught up with many works, but due to liquidity problems filed for insolvency in March 2012. Its bankruptcy was formally declared in April. From March the hapless section has been under administration of Boegl a Krysl (Czech-German enterprise). Guys worked night and day, weather permitting, to make the road passable in early June. Almost nobody believed in success; many pointed at potentially poor quality of hastily done works (time will prove these concerns right or wrong), others yelled the road would be only “passable”, not completed and hence dangerous for users.

According to official declarations, the motorway would not be opened before Euro 2012 and in mid-May the transport ministry presented official detour guidelines, showing how to pass by the unfinished section C. These were contingency plans…

Opening festival began in the third decade of May. Section E to Pruszków was opened on 23 May, its extension, section D to Grodzisk was opened on 29 May, section A and short part of section B (only the latter has been completed, most of section A lack the last layer of stone mastic asphalt) was opened on 3 June and 6 June went down in history as the day when the whole motorway passable. Laying the last layer of tarmac was finished on 5 June, then construction crews assembled signage, crash barriers and painted lane-dividing lines. So drivers can enjoy a problem-free, hour-long journey from Warsaw to Stryków near Łódź, but sections A and C will have to be finished after the football championship (which does not mean any closures).

Despite everything, against all odds, football fans travelling to the capital of Poland from western Europe by car will get to Warsaw in a civilised way. They will surely end up in a traffic hell in Warsaw, but who cares?

Last days also saw the completion of part of S8 expressway in northern Warsaw and opening of two S5 and S11 sections near Poznań. Yesterday southern bypass of Gdańsk was thrown open, making a great alternative to ever-congested notorious ul. Kartuzka. Next openings are scheduled for July and then by the end of 2012 Poland is going to have a much broader network of expressways and motorways. Unfortunately this year there is no chance that part of Warsaw’s southern bypass is finished. Construction of this short expressway got under way a few months before works on A2 started. A2 is now at use, while S2 and S79 have one-year delay and its contractors are still taking their time.

It has to be noted the government-funded infrastructure development programme has brought the construction industry to its knees. The best example of this collapse are bankrupt DSS (general contractor of A2 section C) and PBG (general contractor of the National Stadium in Warsaw) and its two subsidiaries that filed to bankruptcy this week. All companies profit and loss accounts would show they are profitable (albeit with significant margin squeezes), but further analysis of their financial statements draws to a conclusion liquidity squeeze (late payments from Road Construction & Administration Authority / over-competitive prices) killed them and their subcontractors, who have fallen victims of co-operation with reputable industry players.

Corporate bonds issued by these companies hit valuation of many “safe” investment funds, write-downs on loans granted to them are hitting many banks, for many meaning nine-digit losses and being a substantial drag on profitability. The bank I work at is quite conservatively run and it least is not considerably exposed to the ailing sector, so at least it spares my colleagues and me troubles.

I must say the football championship does not rub off on me. I do not root for the Polish football team (although as a Pole I wish them well), I have not bought any Euro 2012 gadgets, I generally find the whole event a nuisance rather than a reason to be excited…

I’m off for holidays for two weeks. The computer stays at home, so expect the next posting with holidays coverage (or something else, provided a noteworthy event occurs) around 24 June

How it feels to be made redundant

As they were taking you on, good times were rolling. Returns were high, risks were underestimated, salaries and bonuses were enviable. Then the housing bubble in the United States burst and fallouts flied even to Poland. The industry faced a slowdown and felt the pressure to economise. To make things worse, just before the outbreak of the crisis your company was about to fully merge with another one. Unfortunately, due to Competition watchdog’s objection, the takeover was only partly brought off, the buyer picked the best divisions and rest was put up for sale. It soon found a new owner; the sucker was ready to pay over the odds for the piece of shit which used to be one of the leading and most reputable players on the market.

The new owner introduced its principles and began to turn the business around, despite really adverse market conditions. Faced with the choice either to shape up and keep your mouth shut, or to ship out and begin to look for a new job, on the market flooded with supply of similarly profiled professionals. You soldiered on and they appreciated your effort. Soon you got promoted and received a pay rise, while over 10% of the staff were laid off during the first wave of employment restructuring. Then ensued the second wave of lay-offs. Several people around were fired, but this was not your problem. You held down the job and performed well, so you did not need to be afraid.

As the economic recovery begin to fade and sovereign crisis in Europe loomed more perilous, your company, despite everything, announced expansion plans. The whole market learnt who was going to be the growth leader, competitors looked with some disdain on your company and slowly began to downsize to retain profitability during economic slowdown.

Reality check came a few months later. There have been some mistakes regarding the strategy made, but executives found the scapegoats in those who had been fired some time earlier. Review of recent performance figures proved the growth strategy fizzled out (unless you define growth as shrinking). Time to bite the bullet has come…

Hearsay over the third wave of cutbacks had been heard long before, but the press release saying this would happen and unveiling details of the plan was issued during the trading session. Shares of you company soared at the news of cost-cutting plan, but retreated to pre-news level by the end of the day. After all investors and speculators know this boat is bound to sink.

Following the lay-off announcement and recent 10 PLN pay rises, motivation among the staff fell dramatically. Nobody felt what they were doing was making sense, the company was going nowhere. Instead, everyone began to fret over the imminent job loss and make fun of the under-performing business.

In a message to employees the executives promised people will be notified in advance of their redundancy, treated with dignity and will receive the proper support and a generous severance package.

As time went by, only the very last promise has not been gone back on. How your fateful day looked depended on your position.

If you were a rank and file, head of your department took you to a room where you also met your HR manager. They told to sit back and handed you an envelope containing all documents linked to job contract termination. They informed they were too many of you in the team and you were selected to continue your career outside this organisation. You could either agree on a conditions proposed by the company or leave with no severance package. So you agreed obediently and got informed by when you can still work and hand your duties over to another employee and sign up for a course “how to write a CV successfully” (you had not been on the market for over 10 years so you did not know or have forgotten how to do it).

If you were a manager, you the invitation for a meeting when they were giving you notice looked similar. Severance package also did, but managers were given a very short deadline by which they had to pack their stuff and go away. Usually it takes two days to close their duties and say goodbye to your colleagues, then you can take your due days off and are requested not to come to work at all. You are still paid and are not allowed to take up a new job with a competitor, but your employer clearly tells you they do not want to see your face any longer. Slap on the face slightly worse than 10 PLN pay rise.

You colleagues seem to sympathise with you, but deep down they are happy it is you, not them. After all they are no irreplaceable people, those who stay on will have it much worse since now. The company has to grow anyway, only labour force harnessed to propel the growth will be less numerous. This is not the tragedy, they will have to work even longer and harder, in other words, more efficiently. Touch luck…

While you are gone you realise you are out on the limb – nobody needs you, market is full of professionals like you, fired by other companies in the industry. Your severance package will help you scrape along and keep paying off your mortgage for a few months or even a year, if you decrease your standard of living. What then – who cares… Maybe on the occasion of the next wave of lay-offs, set to come next year, somebody will mention you and wonder how you are doing.

To make it clear, I have not been fired and I have been told I will not lose the job under restructuring programme this year. But next year opportunities may unfold, with a more generous severance package…

Any similarities between real companies and event are totally accidental. The story is an absolutely fictitious figment of my imagination…

The rear view mirror

Some nasty men claim women use it to tweak with their make-up and apart from this the mirror attached to the windscreen is of no use for them. In fact drivers who do not use all three mirrors to control situation on the road almost constantly are more likely to cause an accident than those who use it as prescribed. Apart from keeping track of traffic when the car is in motion, it is worthwhile to look in the mirror inside the vehicle to look at other car users while, for example, waiting for the traffic light to turn green.

Until some time ago, I could enjoy typical sights – women enhancing their make-up, men shaving their facial hair, humans of both sexes talking on their mobile phones, smoking or having their fingers exploring the contents of their noses. The times of ordinary views in the mirror are gone. It’s getting worse…

I can distinguish two types of drivers: most travel on their own, minority take passengers. The former appear either impatient or jaded. Those for who every second is precious would be the happiest if they could push other vehicles away, faces of the more bored drivers show less and less interest in what is going on around – they drive because they have to, it can be judged by their faces they do a routine activity. I usually commute on my own and usually lean towards the “jaded” type… Aggression behind the wheel is not a good advisor…

More interesting are interactions between people travelling in the same vehicle, and here my observations are more disturbing. The first instance is no communication at all – a car is moving behind me for a longer period of time and its passengers show no sign of conversation. I assume they are not strangers for each other / one another, so I suppose it would be natural to talk. It does not happen. I also quite often notice whole families (parents and children) occupying one car and each member of family is doing something else – a driver focuses on traffic, one of the passengers looks outside a window, another reads a book or fiddles with a mobile phone. In times when people spend most of the time outside home, commuting together seems a good opportunity to talk, but for many silence seems to be a preferable option. Or am I the only one to find this strange?

The second instance are arguing people – more and more often I can see in my rear view mirror couples falling out – yelling, waving their hands, their faces getting red. The same applies to parents driving their children to school. For smaller children the case is usually that the unruly offspring wind up their parents. Teenagers in turn behave seemingly properly but fall out over more serious issues. Shouts and gesticulation also in abundance.

Even leaving out the fact quarrelling distracts drivers and may contribute to dangerous situations on the road, my conclusions are unsettling – a malaise overwhelms the society…

I used to commute by public transport only, I still cover more kilometres in public service vehicles than by car each working day and I find populations of car commuters and public transport users entirely different. Generally speaking, those who get around by car are wealthier than those using the public transport. It does not apply to people who live in areas with excellent transport links into centre of Warsaw who use underground as a faster and more convenient for getting into town, but the regularity remains. Judging by what faces of people sitting in other cars and faces of fellow bus / tram / underground passengers express, I infer those who take the public transport are happier than car users.

Some explanations could be found right away – if you travel in a public space with your family, you are generally less eager to wash your dirty linen than in the private space of your depreciating tin. Going further, money does not have to bring happiness; in many cases wealth, if not accompanied by what really matters in life (bonds with family and friends, self-fulfilment, etc.) can bring discontent. The more you have, the more you want to have and the less you are satisfied with what you have achieved, the less you appreciate what you possess, while you should.

For an upbeat ending – I do not consider what I spot among fellow road users significantly upsetting. The sample I observe is not representative for the whole Polish society, although indeed people’s moods have seen better days. It seems the second wave of financial distress (debt crisis in the euro zone) will hit Poland more severely than the aftermaths of banking crisis in 2008. Poland’s GDP is not going to shrink, again, unemployment is unlikely to soar, but is poised to go up, but consumer confidence that kept the Polish economy afloat in early 2009 gives signs of dwindling. More people are afraid of losing their jobs, households are less eager to finance their consumption with debts, purchasing power is on decline due to cost-push inflation (higher prices of food, utilities and fuel, partly owing to excessive volume of speculation on commodity markets and “thanks” to weak PLN, which now, when corporate sector is not throttled by over-hedging, boosts our competitiveness), as growth of salaries has ceased to catch up with the pace in which prices of basic goods mount. Insecurity can be felt in the air (brutal lay-offs are under way in my company), so gloom is likely to prevail and because in economics agents’ actions bring forth a mechanism of self-fulfilling prophecy, I expect harder times than in 2008-2009, not in figures issued by the Stats office, but among ordinary people.

Next week – a short guide to being fired in a corporation – onlooker’s impressions.

In two weeks – road construction programme review at the onset of football championship – will Warsaw be linked to European network of motorways by then?

To the ones for who I’m better off

At times when nothings turns out the way I would like to, when life seems and endless way uphill, when again I feel out of luck, I try to put my problems into a different perspective, to discern how trifling they are compared to other people’s predicaments. I am dedicating this post to (order totally random):

- the ones who have experienced any kind of material deprivation,
- the homeless,
- orphans, or semi-orphans, who have sold at least one of their parents in their childhood or youth,
- the disabled and their families,
- the blind, the deaf,
- the ones who have not had the luck to be born in a democratic country,
- the ones who have taken out a 100% LtV mortgage loan in CHF in first half of 2008 and are now stuck with outstanding debt twice as high as market value of their property (suckers…)
- culprits of traffic accidents,
- the ones who have to commute longer distances than me and travel in less convenient conditions,
- the ones who have never been abroad,
- the ones who haven’t been clever enough to get in to a renowned university,
- the ones who, despite their brightness could earn a university degree, but come from such poor families that it has been out of reach for them,
- the ones who have lost more than equivalent of their two monthly salaries on the stock market,
- the ones who have been through a bereavement after a departure of a close relative or friend for reasons other than old age,
- the ones who have suffered famine or, thirst,
- the ones who suffer from incurable diseases,
- senile old people the ones who are no longer self-supporting,
- the ones who have never experienced a reciprocated love,
- those who have hurt someone else really badly,
- the ones who have no savings,
- the ones who will never afford to buy their own property or a new car,
- the imprisoned,
- those forsaken or rejected by family and friends on account of being different,
- the mentally ill,
- those suffering from cancer,
- the ones who earn less than me (sounds absurdly, but it refers to over 80% of Poles employed under job contracts),
- the unemployed (especially graduates),
- those who will be fired in the coming year and have no financial resources to fall back on, or have financial liabilities to fulfil,
- students from poor families the ones who have to save on everything to pay for their education
- everyone who barely makes ends meet,
- live in countries where free speech is forbidden,
- the ones whose job does not bring them satisfaction,
- families of addicts,
- the ones who have lived through warfare,
- those who have run up debts they will be paying off till the end of their days,
- children bullied by their parents,
- the ones not capable of mastering a foreign language to a level of fluency,
- the ones who have to look after their ill relatives day and night,
- the ones who cannot have children, but want offspring like nothing on earth,
- who have lost all their belongings in a natural disaster,
- the obese,
- the (secondary) illiterate,
- those who cannot afford to go on holiday and spend it at home (more than 50% of working Poles),
- the ones who have been libelled or slandered,
- the ones whose mistakes led to irreparable losses (including human lives),
- the ones who have complexes on account of their appearance or cannot stand their own reflection in the mirror,
- blue-collar workers who have to plug away outside when in temperatures of –15C or +30C,
- exploited workers, underpaid for their job.

So every time when your life is not a bed of roses, think it could be much worse and think how much you can still lose. The list above could be longer, but based on the above, over 90% of people in my country have it worse than me. I keep it in mind and the awareness of this holds me back from griping about my fate. If your life is not ideal, judge, whether you have more to lose or to win. Be happy with what you have, take pleasure in everything you can, grasp every small joy, look at the bright side of life. Be aware there are billions of people worse-off and try to sympathise with them.

Europe is quivering, while Poland is holding strong.

It has been kind of nerve-racking week on financial markets. Last weekend abounded in political events that could affect the future of the eurozone – presidential election was held in France and Greeks elected members of their parliament.

The latter has drawn much more controversy than the former. The south-European nation has already had enough of severe austerity programme pursued by the previous government and this time backed mostly the parties that have opposed aggressive retrenchments, without which Greek government would have gone bankrupt long ago. Votes have been scattered among many parties, yet they have failed to form a coalition. Today leaders of victorious parties and the president are making a last-ditch attempt to bring together a government. Most observers hold the view the talks are doomed to bring no coveted results and new election will be called for June.

It is almost sure the same parties will win the election, only share of votes gleaned by each of them might differ. At the end of the day, populist politicians elected by irate Greeks will be trying to pull back from the spending cuts that on one hand reduce the pace in which Greek public debt increases, but on the other send the Greek economy into a deeper recession.

Greek bondholders have already agreed on a debt swap with a haircut of 53.5%, yet even such debt relief has not put the Greek government out of trouble. Its indebtedness is whopping and its capacity to pay it off in foreseeable future is highly questionable. Since the very inception of the Greek crisis, it has been clear that insolvency of Greece is just a matter of time. One of the rating agencies downgraded Greece’s rating to C, pointing out, rightly, the big write-down is in fact a form of controlled default. The full default, encompassing freezing almost all public spending is conceivable. This scenario can materialise if the new government backs out of austerity measures on which financial drip from the EU and the IMF is conditioned. If access to this money is cut off (such move is at creditors’ discretion), Greece will be unable to service its debts and maybe this is what many Greeks want. Probably they do not care they would bear a brunt of insolvency, since suffer anyway, so why not spite creditors? When I look at that uncivilised nation, I cannot believe those barbarians accustomed to living beyond their means claim to be heirs of cradle of democracy. No, these must not be the descendants of ancient Greeks.

So called ‘financial markets’ are totally aware Greece is even no longer on its knees; it is lying with its head buried in the sand and breathing through a pipe held by the EU and the IMF, consequently I dare to claim a full-blown bankruptcy would not trigger a sell-off similar to that witnessed in August 2011. There is no evidence for it, but at the end of last year I predicted an ‘earthquake’ on financial markets in the second quarter of 2012. I can concede my mistake if WIG20 does not fall below 2,000 points. Now it needs to go down by some 7% - 8% to hit that barrier so the this can done within a one-day solid tumble.

In France Mr Hollande deposed Mr Sarkozy from the presidential office. Markets’ reaction was anything but amiable. Many feared the new president would soon set out to follow out his leftist agenda, including increasing tax rate for the richest and imposing an extra tax on profitable companies which lay off workers to push up their earnings. I have never really liked Mr Sarkozy, his celebrity-like style of wielding power was not my kind and I will not cry after him. With time some elements of leftist agenda take my fancy. Marginal tax rate of 75% is an exaggeration which will rather cause the wealthiest people to migrate to the UK than help raise tax revenues, but to my proposal of tax system based on flat rate and high tax allowance I would add a higher tax bracket for individuals earning more than six times average salary. I also cannot resist liking for an additional tax on companies firing staff to boost profits. In the coming week my company is announce who will be laid off. At least they pledged to give very generous severance packages and some employees are coming forward to leave…

But wait, wait, who gave ‘financial markets’ power to punish people for the choices they are making? I know yields on government debt should be correlated with risk of its default, I know valuation of stocks depends on tax rate, but do not some price movements express markets’ displeasure? Who gave them authority to mete out punishments? Is this part of legacy of Thatcherism commendable?

Meanwhile on Wednesday the central bank of Poland raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75%. While many European economies are threatened with recession, for Poland inflation above central bank’s target of 2.50% +/- 1.00 p.p., is a bigger problem than economic slowdown (projected GDP growth in 2012 is ca. 3%, 1.3 percentage points lower that actual GDP growth in 2011). Again I’m proud Poland’s monetary authorities have proved a forward-looking wisdom. Given the fragility of economic conditions with our trade partners, it is not clear whether the hike was just a one-off move, or a beginning of the second part of monetary tightening cycle initiated in January 2011. For sure higher rates mean good news for savers who keep their money in banks and slightly worse for all borrowers.

Depositors can cheer up even more, as Polish banks have begun to adjust their funding structure to Basel III requirements, taking effect on 1 January 2013. In practice this means many banks will have to match maturities of their assets (what they lent to households and enterprises) and liabilities (what they owe depositors or creditors). For many banks this might be a bit of a problem, as they finance long-term assets (i.e. 30Y mortgages) with short-term liabilities (i.e. up to 1Y time deposits). This means banks will be competing to garner long-term deposits from the market by bidding higher interest rates and will have to cut down on long-term lending, which essentially are mortgage loans. This means excellent news for the housing market. Property prices in Warsaw have fallen off the peak in early 2008 by some 15% in nominal terms (30% in real terms) and the market is stuck in a standstill. Banks, in order to comply with supervisor’s regulations, have curbed mortgage lending, creditworthiness criteria have been tightened, and buyers have finally noticed property prices are still steep, especially when compared to earnings. So the market may be heading only in one direction. The process of adjustment will take a few months, as sellers are unwilling to take on board that their hapless assets’ (for which many of them paid over the odds) intrinsic values are much lower than asking prices and buyers refuse to pay so much, or their mortgage applications are turned down, so few transactions are finalised. This also proves mortgage availability is the key driver of price trends on property market. May the adjustment run well and property prices should decrease by some 20% within two years – the substantial decline which began in 2011 will continue (transaction price of 1 sqm in Warsaw dropped by 11% year-on-year in April 2012), but fundamental factors point the pace of decline should speed up! Great news!

Kabaty crash site

Probably no other country in the EU can boast about such long weekend falling on such beautiful season of year, as Poland, which has bank holidays on 1 May and 3 May. This year arrangement of days was extremely favourable – with days off work falling on Tuesday and Thursday, half of the country were on holiday and the rest ticking over. Given the limited number of paid holiday, I decided to stay ‘on duty’ at work over the whole week. This strategy has several upsides – little is going on in the office, one can knock on later, knock off earlier and go out for a lunch for an hour, traffic on the roads is sparse. The only downside is that public service vehicles run according to weekend timetable and if someone saves on fuel, getting to work partly by public transport is longer than door-to-door trip by car.

This year not only the calendar was on Poles’ side, also the weather couldn’t be more conducive for leisure. An unusual for late April / early May heat wave arrived to Poland on Friday before the long weekend and lasted whole seven days. For most of the weekend day-times were hitting +30C and sunshine was not disrupted by a single raindrop. In early February, when temperatures were dropping below –20C, I promised myself not to grumble about the heat. Indeed, below minus twenty it was worse.

Looking around and judging by the picture painted by the media, it can be inferred that Poles are off for a care-free week-long barbecue, devouring warm sausages and sipping cold beer. Not a good form of pastime activity to be endorsed. Popular culture promotes unhealthy lifestyle rather when physical exercise!

OK, I also ate some sausages, drank a few beers, but haven’t succumbed to the notion that life’s easy. Even at the time when almost everyone’s laid-back, pushes aside mundane worries and laps up beauty of the spring, more serious issues must not disappear from the foreground. It’s not about seeking troubles intently, it’s about discerning complexity of the world and remembering about its sadder side.

On Thursday I finally celebrated cycling shake-down day in season 2012. Head down, it kicked off late, the first opportunity was missed on 17 March and then either weather or some timesucks were keeping my off my bike. For starters, I ventured where I had planned to go since my trip to Las Kabacki two months earlier. And the time for the trip could only be slightly better.

Next Wednesday Poles will be commemorating the 25th anniversary of the most tragic airplane disaster in the history of Polish aviation. Many of would argue the Smolensk crash was the most terrible, as many of the fatalities were eminent statesmen, however in terms of death toll the Kabaty plane crash was almost two times more tragic (183 vs. 96).

Shame on me, I have to admit this was my first visit to the place where Il-62 hit the ground. This time before setting off I checked on the map how to get there and didn’t roam in vain in search of the monument as I did in March.

Getting there is a piece of cake. Inhabitants of southern part of Zielony Ursynów and adjacent villages are in a privileged position. You just need to turn into ul. Jagielska from ul. Puławska and walk / cycle / drive (the last should be deleted, as inappropriate) some two kilometres east to find a green gate closing off a path to the forest (to the right – photo taken while riding, hence blurred). Cycle or walk two hundred metres into the wood and soon you reach the destination.

If you’re heading from proper Ursynów, you’re still in the luck – your trail will be longer, but you ma enjoy a pleasurable walk / ride through the forest (especially delightful on a sweltering day, when trees give shelter from the heat) and signage should lead you to the place.

The crash site is commemorated by a small, inconspicuous clearing (here for a moment unattended). The place is arranged to play host to few visitors and brings out a conductive atmosphere to contemplate the fragility of human life. I have to say all tourist stopping over there behaved appositely.

Two artefacts on the site are a stone plaque, with names of all fatalities inscribed on it and a cross. Photographs of both objects prove my photographing skills are inadequate – I didn’t manage to snap up-to-the-mark shots on a sunny day in a shaded place. With hindsight a good incentive to tweak with my compact Canon’s settings or a reason to upgrade. The first name on a plaque is captain Zygmunt Pawlaczyk who piloted the ill-fated plane. There is a street named after him in a nearby Ursynów. Many people owe him they are alive, as captain Pawlaczyk, having realised he wouldn’t have a chance to land the plane in Okęcie airport, decided to drop the plane into an uninhabited area, without risking lives of more innocent people.

The cross has been put up by members of a local parish in Pyry. A small Jesus crucified on it, a small wreath laid in front of. In a few days there will be lots of flowers and candles all over the place and then someone will tidy it up and only silence and rare visitors will haunt the place.

A notice attached to a tree informs two masses commemorating the victims will be administered on Wednesday. I’m looking forward to seeing archival TV coverages of the disaster. Few can be found on youtube although TV reporters have covered the story quite informatively. Censorship apparatus in late 1980s eased off and news of the crash appeared in the media immediately. Truth wasn’t said in the context of co-operation with Soviet engineers, probably accountable for the glitch which led to a engine breakage, who wriggle out of helping Poles investigate true causes of the engine breakage and denied their responsibility for the faulty part.

I’ll surely be visiting the place at least once a year, and on one of 10th days of April in the coming years I’ll take a trip to Smolensk. Regardless of political views, each Pole who can afford to travel there (provided Russian visa is obtainable) should to pay homage to the ones whose lives were shattered in the Smolensk muds…

Indecency stretched to the limit

Some of the readers of this blog know my name and surname; some of the readers know where I work and what position I hold. For the rest of the world, I try to appear as an anonymous ex-student of economics, employed by one of “Polish” banks. Rationale for concealing my identity? A down-to-earth reason is that I need publicity like a hole in the head and generally tend to avoid situations when the world revolves around me. The other motive cropped up out of the blue in 2010, when I had to familiarise with some of the internal policies (containing several dos and don’ts) set out by the corporation I work for, including the blogging policy.

At first glance it seems absurdly silly that a company may require its employees to stick to regulations concerning limitations in blogging, but if a company wants to avoid adverse publicity from its employees, maybe this is the case. I plead I haven’t learnt by heart all the drivel written there, but I keep in mind that: 1) as an employee I can’t write anything about my company nor my job (event if doesn’t involve letting in on any secrets) and sign it with my name, even if I don’t mention the name of my employer, 2) as an anonymous Internet user I don’t have to refrain from mentioning my employer’s name but I’m not advised to spread negative opinions about its business. So to comply with all the regulations there’s no author’s name, nor a company name.

If someone wishes bad on me, feel free to send link to this post to the HR department of my company. This would surely help bring forward the inevitable bitter end of the shattered relationship between by employer and me. Anyway I would appreciate if you let me put myself out of this misery on my own and only after I find a better place, which is not that easy, hence I soldier on…

This might be a matter of corporate culture. They vary across the world and companies and models of socio-economic order. In American companies direct relationships, hire-and-fire approach, flexibility and opportunities to climb the ladder of career quickly are quite typical. You can like it, or detest it, fit in, or struggle to find your way inside a specific business. But is decency, a backbone of moral fibre, a part of corporate culture? Back in 2008 when several banks at the verge of bankruptcy had to be bailed out from taxpayers’ purses, executives’ bonuses and salaries outraged everyone. Do you remember where cries of anger were the loudest? These were the United Kingdom and the United States, not only because deregulated banking industries have grown too big too fail there, but also because (Bank executive’s salary / average salary in the national economy) multipliers in Anglo-Saxon countries were incomparably higher the in more civilised countries.

Many times I’ve asserted on this blog I’m glad I live in Poland, not in the United States. I also stressed the soundness of Polish banking system, prudently managed, wisely regulated and lacking depravities typical for developed investment banks. My general take on the Polish commercial banking has not changed. I still hold it as a whole in high esteem, there are just some exceptions that prove the rule…

One of the differences between Polish and American banking is a position of banks and its employees in the national economy. Financial sector in Poland is not a significant contributor to wealth creation as in Anglo-Saxon countries. Moreover, Polish commercial bankers, unlike their colleagues from investment banks, are ordinary people who don’t earn zillions and whose conduct is usually governed by moral principles, not only by pursuit of profits.

In Anglo-saxon investment banking, weaselling into the industry was (is?) one of few ways to grow rich quickly and legally (this doesn’t imply ‘in morally acceptable way). In Poland, if your expertise is above-average, you can count on above-average earnings, but don’t expect appallingly high salary. In investment banking, profits are distributed between: executives, employees and owners, the rest of the society and the state do not benefit from their activity. In Poland these are only executives and (foreign) owners that reap profits from banks’ activity.

To cut this long considerations short, I’m getting at the question whether a company can prosper at the expense of its employees? How long can you exploit workforce before they show you their middle fingers and quit? How big gaps between executives’ and rank-and-files’ remunerations are acceptable? Bigger responsibilities and higher qualifications must mean the higher your position, they higher your earnings must be, this is natural. Only the size of disproportion in earnings can be a matter of a dispute. How should employees’ contribution to a company’s prosperity be rewarded?

The other story is how executives participate in an austerity programmes they pursue in their companies. I know one company which has been more or less successfully turning around for a while. It has changed its strategy, pulled out from unprofitable business lines, laid off over 10% of its staff and continues to terminate contracts with employees. This year to show financial standing of the company is improving and to appreciate the contribution of employees to this success, most of the staff were granted a 10 PLN before tax pay rise. Getting it? Ten zlotys minus income tax, even too little to get hammered in despair! Some people who heard about it told it was a joke, I call it a slap in the face, especially if from the annual report of that company (quoted on the stock exchange) you can learn that its executives remunerations have increased by 30 – 50%. Pay rise of 10 PLN vs. pay rise of 1,000,000 PLN – just fair? This remuneration model is a sort of ‘privatising profits and socialising losses’.

The answer to the question I asked in a civilised world must be ‘no’. On a properly functioning market best employees would refuse to put up with such uncivilised treatment and would flee to work for competitors. Things aren’t so simple when labour market in a specific industry is characterised by over-supply of workforce – this is visible in Polish banking. A good banker will find a job, but room for salary negotiations has shrunk…

Not long ago my opinion on activity of trade unions was similar to this espoused by Mrs Thatcher. I thought trade unionists were spongers with endless unfounded pay rise demands, paralysing growth of businesses. I still see many times they act with detriment to their companies, but where I work things look much different. In pathological situations, such as described above, trade unions are the only organisation capable of standing up for indecently treated employees. Oddly enough, trade unions’ bargaining power is bigger in companies where employees are treated well…

Much has changed since I wrote my summary some three months ago (not only the temperature which is now some 50 degrees higher than then). I have been assigned more duties and given more responsibilities. This has upsides – new challenges, learning & development opportunities and downsides – no measurable reward in return. With each next week I feel more encumbered and less motivated. With a bold face I face new challenges take up more tasks, try to complete them all, but seeing to appreciation of my efforts I can’t see my future where I work. I’ll grind my teeth and wait until I hit two-years’ experience as an analyst, after which I’ll be fulfilling all the criteria in most job openings. Best people I work with are on the lookout for better places to work. If they quit, there’ll be no reason to stay in, and without them this ill-run boat will sink. I’m worried about the number of fatalities, but given the way it is managed, it will meet a well-deserved fate.

So bitter… Am I getting acrimonious?

Wedding after-thoughts

And so the season of knot-tying in 2012 kicked off. For no apparent reason, each such ceremony brings forth several more or less incongruous considerations in me.

Before the event I thought my friend’s wedding would be a great opportunity for our class to meet up. Unsurprisingly, as I pitched up to the scene, I went through a reality check. Albeit I can’t say this was a big let-down, par for the course, given six years that have elapsed since we went separate ways. There were five of us, including me, all boys, the four other still staying in quite close friendship with the groom. So most bonds in my high-school class have broken up…

The number of guests generally wasn’t staggering. Actually this was the third consecutive wedding I attended with a quite low turnout. So the ones that come over are usually family and close friends, plus, judging by the behaviours of some attendees, some onlookers. It’s nice to have a crowd, but I’m bracing myself for a sparse one on my own wedding… Fellow bloggers will be invited anyway.

A wedding is supposed to be a once-in-a-lifetime ceremony. So how the hell can somebody turn up half an hour late for it? Prudent people take precautions and try to anticipate hitches when they plan. I set off from home 50 minutes before the beginning of the mass in the church and my journey went on smoothly until I got stuck in stationary traffic on Dolinka Służewiecka. Eventually, instead of being 30 minutes earlier, I came less than ten minutes earlier, but still was punctual.

Attire and general appearance. Maybe I’m too conservative, but I’m of the opinion casual clothes, dishevelled hair and dirt behind nails are not the apposite type of look a wedding guest should present. Dark suit, white shirt, impeccably knotted tie and properly polished patent leather shoes are a must. Maybe some people refuse to wear such clothes because they feel ill-at-ease when they put them on, maybe for some people occasions to wear elegant outfits are so rare that it makes no sense to keep them in the wardrobe, but gosh… The way you dress reflects upon your respect for fellow people and bears testimony of your sense of situation. Being overdressed maybe be as bad as being underdressed, but in the case of wedding, I’d focus on the latter risk.

Get-together with high-school classmates reminded me, again, people are made of different substances. In primary school I met children from my neighbourhood, from wealthier and poorer families, whose parents were university graduates or vocational school-leavers, from “normal” or pathological families. In middle school my entourage stayed roughly the same. Then I got in to a relatively good high school in Warsaw. More of my classmates had wealthier, better educated parents, lived in Warsaw or on the suburbs and virtually all of them were clever or hard-working. Then I went to Warsaw School of Economics, where I encountered the pick of Poland’s youth interested in economics, finance and other similar sciences. The further I went, the more high-flyers I could meet on my way. Some of my friends from primary school ended up as hairdressers or roofers, some are housewives. My high-school classmates are set up well in life mainly thanks to support of their parents. What I owe to my mother and father is negligible to what they got, but I don’t envy them. If better shapes you up, if you achieve something in life with your bare hands, but most people would prefer to live conveniently and have their parents paying for that.

And one more thing – what’s so poignant about weddings that so many people cry? Again, the bride interchangeably wept and laughed and this time several men shed tears. Why? Leave out crying is considered unmanly, but I can’t discern the reason. What’s so moving about two people of different sex promising each other love, faith and staying together till death tears them apart? I can only admire them for their bravery. Simply I never met somebody with who I would want to share my good and bad days, with who I would like to grow old. Once I met a girl I felt would make a great wife and good friend, which is essential for spending the rest of life together, but never felt something people call ‘love’ could last until the end of my days.

My mastery in economics doesn’t allow me to know the price of everything and the value of nothing, but I feel as a downright cynic right now. I saw some marriages breaking up, saw some of them swearing before God they wouldn’t part. Having observed this, marriage vows, especially spoken out in a church (where they swear before God, not before a clerk in a registry office) resound to me like hollow words. Now, you’re in love (incidentally, yesterday’s wedding was organised in haste, due to bride’s pregnancy), you’re intoxicated, one day infatuation is gone and you’ll have to share ups and downs of ordinary life, put up with habits and traits of your spouse. Time puts people to tough tests and maybe this is the reason why I would be wary to promise ‘forever and ever’…

Yesterday I had the impression my classmates haven’t grown up since we finished school. Time to get off their backs. Having written the paragraph above, I proved my own immaturity. Bartuś, time to grow up…