Pandemic diary – weeks 7 and 8

Monday, 27 April 2020

I have proudly turned by Facebook profile into the second blog, run in Polish where I post nearly every day. Yesterday I wrote a long string of questions, inducing thoughts whether the cure for the virus will not turn out worse than the disease..

Day after day I see relaxation of social discipline in terms of mask-wearing in the open air. Besides, after early-April all-out police controls, nobody today enforces the rules.

Tuesday, 28 April 2020

I care less and less about what formally will not be a presidential election, but rather a postal survey.

My work computer crashes after 5 years and 9 months in service. My employer was holding back on purchasing a new laptop to me and it will have to pay twice, not only for a new laptop and for the recovery of data from the hard disc. I need to drive to the office, then to accelerate data recovery to a subcontractor with the hard disc. While visiting the two places I wear a face mask and disposable gloves. All people I talk to have no face mask (to they do not protect me) nor gloves. Frankly, I do not give a damn.

Wednesday, 29 April 2020

The government out of the blue lifts restrictions on shopping malls, nursery schools, museums, libraries and hotels and gives vague and imprecise guidelines how reopened institutions ought to work. Mayors of several cities decide not to open nursery schools. Tenants in shopping malls are facing a hard time since the have little time to adjust to inadequately defined new rules of functioning and expect a massive revenue decline, while expenditures await settlement.

Thursday, 30 April 2020

More and more frequently I can read of visions of living with several restrictions. A world in which every human is a potential threat or an enemy is a nightmare.

The election-like farce turns ghastly as ballot cards leak out.

Friday, 1 May 2020

A silent bank holiday. Few people out on the streets, few cars on the roads.

April 2020 with average temperature of +9.4C was not as warm as in 2019 (+10.6C) or in record-warm 2018 (+13.6C), but still somewhat above long-term average of +8.7C. 7.6 millimetres of rain fell in Warsaw over the entire months, exacerbating the ongoing drought.

Saturday, 2 May 2020 – Sunday, 3 May 2020

The number of active cases at least temporarily peaked in Poland on 30 April 2020. Given relaxation visible outdoors, I presume in mid-May the trend might reverse.

In Spain people were finally allowed out of their houses, though only in specific time slots. People took to the streets in masses to cherish the freedom. Photos of crowds on boulevards circulated around the world.

Monday, 4 May 2020

My employer slowly mentions we will need to return to the office once classes in schools are resumed. Home office is an alternative for 2 or 3 days in a week, yet remains imperfect and inferior in relation to working in the office in some situations. Some people threaten either they are permitted to work from home only or take a sick leave.

Tuesday, 5 May 2020

Sales of passenger cars dropped in Poland by 67% y/y in April 2020. The figures were impacted down by quarantine, but not yet by shutdowns of several factories, but also impacted up by handovers of vehicles ordered several weeks earlier. The market will see a reshuffle, but will also find a new equilibrium. Fewer brand-new cars will be sold, but their prices will not go down. On the other hand, quite many nearly brand-new (no older than 5 years) cars from downsized corporate fleets will flood the market and bring down prices of used vehicles. Thus I expect the gap between prices of brand-new cars and of nearly-new used cars to broaden.

Wednesday, 6 May 2020

I am looking at Great Britain which, along with Sweden, where no formal lockdown has been declared, Romania and Poland is one of four European countries where the number of active cases is not declining and wonder why the damn with quite fierce, though belated, lockdown and massive testing the Brits cannot bring the pandemic under control.

Scientists announce that the virus has mutated and works on the vaccine might go in vain, since it would immunise against pre-mutated virus. Besides, it seems first cases of COVID-19 were observed, but not properly diagnosed, nor detected in Europe back in late 2019. In Poland in January and February also several distressing flus and aggressive influenzas were observed. Does it mean we could have lived with it?

Thursday, 7 May 2020

The recent developments on the presidential election which will not be held in three days deserve some commentary, yet I do not feel like fraying my nerves to write about it. The way constitutional other legal acts and institutions which ought to guarantee proper functioning of democracy are downtrodden fills me with ultimate disgust. Conceivably the election might be still held in May, but according to an “agreement” between two grey-haired Jarosławs it will be called again for mid-July.

Friday, 8 May 2020

The second day of demonstrations of entrepreneurs in Warsaw. Those who have had to wind down their business due to lockdown and have not received an adequate (in their assessment) compensation protest against useless anti-crisis shields. Many of the protesters do not give a damn about face masks nor social distancing rules.

In the evening president Duda signs the “defective and agreed to be amended” law on organising the presidential election in May 2020.

Saturday, 9 May 2020

I seem to be getting lonelier and long for company of people much more plus fearing a gradual demise of social skills. But with declining number of new infections in Warsaw and around, I may hope the rules of social quarantine will ease in a while.

Holding the presidential election in May 2020 still comes into play. I refuse to make any more comments.

Sunday, 10 May 2020

Today was supposed to be the first round of rejecting Andrzej Duda as a president. Yesterday’s negotiations in PiS headquarters have not resulted in any resolution on the election date. Jarosław Kaczyński has nearly duped Jarosław Gowin

I go out cycling in Kampinos forests with lads. First cycling since many days without a face mask (legally). Actually 36 kilometres cycled without a mask, remaining 7 in a mask. At +22C cycling in a mask is a nuisance.

First public transport rides since 10 March. I will not renew my travelcard for several weeks, I suppose. Date of comeback to the office in shifts (every third or fourth working day in the office, remaining days at home) looms distant, no earlier than mid-June.

Black plates – 20 years after the last one was handed.

A post for anoraks in the middle of the pandemic. Barely anybody remembers 20 years ago new black-on-white number plates began to gradually replace the classic white-on-black ones which had been issued since 1976.

I have decided to mark the anniversary by snapping some vehicles which still carry the old plates and which have not changed hands for at least 20 years. Over the last two weeks I wandered and cycled around Ursynów and took photos of more than 50 such vehicles. Since a gallery of so many cars would be tedious, I have decided to confine it to cars registered in Ursynów and picked 25 best-maintained cars. Given that I have snapped them all in open-air car parks, the cars look good despite being exposed to the elements of weather probably over their entire lifetime.

Before we set out, a quick look at rules at which plates were handed out in the district of Ursynów before 1 May 2000. D stands for digit, L stands for letter.

WZZ DDDD – in 1995 and 1996

WZU DDDD – in 1996 and 1997

WZS 0DDD – 8DDD – between 1997 and June 1998

WZT DDDD – from June 1998 to April 1999

WZS 9DDD – from April 1999 to May 1999

WZZ DDDL – from May 1999 to April 2000, the last number plates being WZZ 795L or WZZ 796L.

The order of photos is hence chronological.

#1 – Skoda Felicia, registered in early 1996, quite probably belonging to a local pensioner for trips to his summer allotment. Bodywork of the car kept up in excellent condition.

#2 – Opel Astra, most probably registered in the first half of 1996. I peeked at the car’s odometer which showed just under 100,000 kilometres. The car has a quite desirable in that time 1.4-litre, 16-valve 90 hp engine. Note original mudflaps.

#3 – Nissan Almera, also from 1996, probably one of first Almeras registered in Poland. Back in those days, number of cars imported was capped by non-tariff quotas. My parents’ friends bought Nissan Almera sedan in the same colour in April 1997 and got rid of it in mid-2015. The car was extremely reliable for a long time and it took 18 years before repairs began to be too frequent.

#4 – Seat Toledo, also registered in 1996, just like Felicia snapped through a fence of a guarded car park. The car is also in pristine condition, including the paintwork, which is of note, since red lacquer is sensitive to sunlight and tends to fade is exposed to it for long time.

#5 – Seat Cordoba, here we move to second half of 1996. The car is not that perfectly maintained and somewhat dirty; its mudguards are replaced by plastic which means corrosion has wreaked havoc to the body.

#6 – Nissan Primera, basic version (black bumpers) from late 1996 or early 1997, yet with red lacquer holding up well. Grass growing around suggests the car is sparingly driven, yet it does not look neglected.

#7 – Fiat Siena, which in mid-1997 was rolled out as a cheap family car. Its basic version’s asking price was just below 30,000 PLN, which made it an affordable car for several households. This perfectly maintained one was probably purchased as one of first ones to have leave showrooms.

#8 – Toyota Starlet, a small Japanese car, for years at the top of reliability rankings. I know a person who bought one brand-new in 1993 and sold it in 2015, just because of rust eating it up. Susceptibility to corrosion was the only soft spot of Toyota Scarlet. Mechanic-wise, a perfectly reliable vehicle.

#9 – Opel Corsa, with two leaflets under windscreen wipers. The leaflets suggest the car has not been driven for a few days. It also is parked underneath a tree which at this season of the year adds exposure to elements of the weather.

#10 – Peugeot 306, the number suggests in could have been registered in 1998, unlike previous cars which had their plates given out in 1997. The car has mudflaps, door buffers and roof rack, which increase its market value.

#11 – Seat Ibiza, the third Seat snapped, suggesting the Spanish brand of Volkswagen did quite long-lasting vehicles. On over 50 photos taken, there was no Volkswagen, nor Audi.

#12 – Skoda Octavia. Here we move to WZT plates, where it is possible to estimate the registration date, which for this car was July 1998. The bodywork shows signs of exposure to sunshine and rain.

#13 – Fiat Seicento, one of three in the top25. This model premiered in March 1998, while the very car was registered some 4 months later.

#14 – Opel Astra, whose second generation premiered in 1998, this particular car, in dark-green was probably registered in August 1998.

#15 – Peugeot 406, registered in December 1998. The car makes an impression of having a track record of several trips around Europe, but remains in perfect condition. I did not look at the odometer, however I could bet it might have the largest mileage of all cars presented here.

#16 – Fiat Seicento, registered in January 1999. Note the steering wheel blockade, which at that time was one of the most popular anti-theft tools. Most probably the car belongs to a pensioner.

#17 – Fiat Palio Weekend, with number on the plate higher by merely 11 than the previous car. The vehicle is the estate version of Fiat Siena, in late 1990s the most affordable estate car in Poland.

#18 – Fiat Seicento, for the third time, also registered in January 1999. The car is marked to be driven by a disabled person and is parked one a lot reserved for such ones. Nevertheless, in mint condition.

#19 – Nissan Primera, a post-lift version vs. #6, in classic orange-brown colour, registered in February 1999. The bonus is a Citroen lorry visible to the right.

#20 – Opel Astra, registered in June 1999, one more time, also in eye-pleasing dark-green colour.

#21 – Daewoo Lanos, registered in July 1999. The car, along with Fiat Siena, was rolled out as a cheap compact vehicle. The version here is a post-life one, produced in Daewoo’s factory in Żerań, Warsaw. The carmaker went bust in 2001.

#22 – Daewoo Matiz, registered in October 1999. The model was a successor of Tico, yet remained quite cheap and gained popularity. This particular vehicle is not eaten up by rust, which was a plague with that model.

#23 – Polonez Caro, registered most probably in March 2000. The only car I am sure was not registered brand new, as this very model gave way to Polonez Caro Plus in 1996. Except for the damaged hubcap, the car looks like it has driven out of showroom.

#24 – Toyota Corolla, just after a lift, registered in March or April 2000. The car’s white bodywork holds up well, just as black plastic elements do. Somebody must be looking after it.

#25 – Renault Kangoo, registered in April 2000, so turning 20 without changing hands and still looking good.

Those who have taken fancy, may see many, many more black plates on Czarna Warszawa Facebook page.

I will try to repeat the exercise in 5 years, however I believe I will find very, very few well-maintained cars of black plates.

Pandemic diary – weeks 5 and 6

Sunday, 12 April 2020 – Monday, 13 April 2020

Hope we will never live through Easter like this, when we have to be apart in order to spend the next one together. Lack of celebrations together is not a tragedy. The weather is fine and due to numerous limitations reasonable citizens prefer to stay indoors or go for a short walk and keep their distance from other strollers.

Tuesday, 14 April 2020

One more day off work, at least giving some chance to forget about office-related quandaries. In the morning I drive to have my car overhauled and get the vehicle’s MOT renewed. While the work is being done I walk from Konstancin to the intersection of ul. Puławska and ul. Karczunkowska to watch AN-225 Mrija descending towards the runway.

For a plane spotter, a pleasure, for the government an abhorrent celebration. The plane brought 80 tonnes of medical equipment. For a comparison, two other planes, arranged by Dominika Kulczyk and WOŚP brought respectively 57 and 40 tonnes of medical equipment, with much, much less hype around it.

The car is disinfected with ozone after the overhaul. As I return, all doors remain open, there is still some nasty smell inside. I hope my Megane is ahead of another year of problem-free service.

Wednesday, 15 April 2020

Shopping, new clothes, travels, big gatherings, gadgets, eating out and several other stuff we have had to give up on. But I find it extremely hard to go without two things: spending time outdoor in nature and direct contact with people. The former is now dosed out, the latter has ceased recently.

A month ago people would call me, I would call people. These days conversations on the phone (which are the best substitutes of face-to-face meetings) get less frequent, people I talk to confess they are slowly running out of endurance in isolation.

Thursday, 16 April 2020

I hear people have discovered you can meet online do several things online thanks to web cameras and video streaming applications. A month ago I hoped thanks to the collective quarantine people would appreciate direct contact with one another. Today I fear they will relish on the new methods of communication which for me are just a substitute.

Today the duty to cover one’s nose and mouth in the public space comes into effect. A traditional face mask has a big drawback for every spectacled person, i.e. glasses mist up while one breaths air out. I have come up with an invention how to overcome this nuisance, i.e. to each of my multiple-use masks I sew in a bendable, elastic wire which then needs to adjust its shape to a shape of nose and cheeks, thus leaving no space between the skin and the mask. I wonder why nobody has exploited this market niche.

Friday, 17 April 2020

The number of tests carried out in Poland is rising after Easter. Polish laboratories have capacity of 20,000 tests per day, while today 10,500 tests are examined. Needless to say the best way to combat fever is to get rid of the thermometer.

Looking at (small and rich) countries which have made more than 5 tests per 100 citizens (in Poland so far 0.5 test per 100 citizens have been run), i.e. Iceland, United Arabic Emirates, Luxembourg, Malta, one can infer that mortality rate has been below 1% so far, except for Luxembourg where it stands currently at 2.1%. Add to this that research from the German town Gingelt, where a large sample population was examined for COVID-19 antibodies and results showed around 80% of the examined were infected symptom-free and… will you get the actual scale of the peril?

I look at increasing car traffic in Ursynów and wonder where those people go. I do not travel for work-related reasons, nor for fun, but use the car twice a week to drive to Auchan Piaseczno to do myself and pick up to my parents some bigger shopping.

Saturday, 18 April 2020

The weather is fine, but one has to stay indoors. Tomorrow first restrictions are lifted, so recreational cycling will be possible again. Sadly, with face masks only. Face masks are justified when one meets people, but what is the point in wearing them for a lonely bike ride far away from civilisation.

I look with curiosity at countries which have brought epidemic under control and where the number of active cases has been on decline for two weeks, i.e. Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Iceland. All those countries have carried out widespread testing and have introduced social distancing measures early. I wonder how the story unfolds and when the number of active cases rebounds (it seems inevitable, if social distancing rules are slowly loosened up).

Sunday, 19 April 2020

The link between common vaccinations against tuberculosis and how the epidemic spreads in a specific country appears noteworthy. Poland is one of countries in which everyone has to vaccinated, while in Italy, Spain or France, this was not obligatory. It needs to be scientifically proven, yet in vaccinated populations:
- transmission seems slower, or in other words people are more immune,
- even if a patient contract the virus, illness is milder,
- consequently the mortality rate is lower.

I go for two walks with my face mask on. The ventilation is definitely worse, so with the obligation to cover the face I will either need to give up on cycling, or find a mask which could let me breathe easily during physical effort. Doctors say intense physical effort with face mask on would do more harm than good.

Monday, 20 April 2020

The day some restrictions are lifted. You can go to a forest without a face mask (given density of walkers in Las Kabacki this is an idiocy), to a park, more people can enter churches and shops which makes shopping more convenient. Yet the economy is not being unfrozen by a single bit.

After knocking off at 5:00 p.m. I take my bike out of the basement to check whether cycling in a face mask is a nuisance. To my surprise, ventilation is not tragic, it is more than bearable. Yet trips longer thank 20 kilometres are not advisable. Doctors who dissuade people from physical effort in face masks are right.

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

Business-wise… The companies who were not instructed to close down and carry on are troubled by increased cost of rigorous sanitary regime and by lower productivity as a result of social distancing measures. Both factors drive their profitability down. In order to stay above water, they will need to raise prices soon, dashing hopes for decrease in inflation. Nevertheless, if decreasing demand will contain inflation, salary cuts or lay-offs are inevitable.

The UK figures on deaths in England and Wales are published. In week from 4 April 2020 to 10 April 2020 over 18,500 deceases were registered, vs. 5-year average of 10,500.

Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Few notice what Michael points at. Drought will be yet another problem in 2020. In April barely 4 millimetres of rainfall were recorded in Warsaw. A lovely weather to work at the balcony in the afternoon, but food prices will hit our wallets on top of other miseries.

The Biebrza National Park, one of priceless pieces of Poland’s wildlife and nature heritage is on fire. The blaze and the drought begin to come into the foreground.

In the evening I drive to the office to pick up books I lent to my workmates before the lockdown and which the gave me back and leaving them on my desk. I take an opportunity to roam around city centre around 7:00 p.m. Area near PKiN is full of homeless, drunkards and youngsters hanging around. I don’t feel entirely self. Warsaw is not a ghost down, yet is far from being alive.

Thursday, 23 April 2020

City mayors receive a letter which demands them to provide the national postal service operator with personal data of all citizens entitled to vote, which is… unlawful. Yesterday morning minister Sasin admitted he was acting on the basis of draft law… The wojna kaczyńsko-polska exacerbates.

In the evening I take a cycling trip. The weather is conducive (+16C, sunny) and I manage 20.7 kilometres with my face mask on and without drinking, at average speed of 14 kmph.

Friday, 24 April 2020

People are already fed up with restrictions, especially the isolation and the stay-home order / recommendation. These days they particularly moan about face masks in which many have problems breathing. I have managed to get on with them. I began to wear them in late March when going to a shop, today I abide by all laws, although the one which says in a crowded forest you can move about without a mask, but on an empty street you need you wear it is an idiocy.

A workmates who also lives on her own calls me to have a chat. She says during a regular war there was a visible enemy and you could take comfort in other people. Today I can be nearly sure I will not die as a result of warfare, but isolation from other people is a form of self-imposed torture.

Saturday, 25 April 2020

Handling the epidemic is about choosing the lesser of two evils. Just like many other people, I look at Sweden with curiosity. Months will elapse before we know whether their mild lockdown would be the right choice.

Saturday traffic seems to be going back to pre-lockdown levels. Number of people on the streets also getting higher. 90% wear face masks.

Sunday, 26 April 2020

Today, let’s look at curves showing active cases (number of currently infected people, i.e. all cases less recovered and fatalities) in countries which have brought the pandemic under control. Charts and figures taken from Worldometer.

Germany: peak on 6 April 2020: 72,865, down to 40,836 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 24,738 per 1 million population.

Switzerland: peak on 31 March 2020: 14,349, down to 5,995 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 28,343 per 1 million population.

Austria: peak on 3 April 2020: 9,334, down to 2,509 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 24,549 per 1 million population.

Denmark: peak on 10 April 2020: 3,799, down to 2,358 on 25 April 2020 (though up by 63 vs. 23 April 2020). Tests: 23,607 per 1 million population.

Czech Republic: peak on 13 April 2020: 5,397, down to 4,681 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 20,087 per 1 million population.

Iceland: peak on 6 April 2020: 1,096, down to 210 on 25 April 2020. Tests: 134,716 per 1 million population.

Poland: peak on 25 April 2020: 8,623. I doubt it will decline. Tests: 7,372 per 1 million population.