Sunday, 28 March 2021

S7 expressway - progress check

Decided to make the most of yesterday’s first whiff of spring in March (in late February temperature topped over +18C twice, more on this in the annual Winter timeline, due in a fortnight), lugged my bike out of the basement, donned a thin face mask, a helmet and rode to inspect the progress on nearby S7 expressway construction site. Cycling note – this year instead of having my bike serviced at Decathlon, I did the brake adjustments, screwdriving, tyre change and chain lubricating and other stuff on my own. It spared me some 100 zlotys, saved not for a rainy day, but for time more conducive to living it up.

Having cycled through Las Kabacki, crossed ul. Puławska and cut across the cemetery in Pyry I find myself by ul. Baletowa. Here the road has been routed into a tunnel, wide enough to fit two lanes and pavements on both sides. It is around 11:00 a.m., traffic quite sparse so far.

On the western side of the tunnel, looking north towards Warszawa Południe junction (lamp posts in the distance are at the end of the finished, yet closed section of the expressway). Except for the excavator and the truck, no machinery nor workers on site. Feel kind of sorry for dwellers of nearby houses who have lived here for decades and soon they will need to put up with the neighbourhood of a noisy and fume-producing fast traffic.

Then I cycle south through Dawidy Bankowe. A shot taken from a bus stop by ul. Starzyńskiego, looking east towards the railway tracks. The sandy bottom layer of the expressway’s foundation is well visible. Watch out for the spot which has blotted all zoomed pictures taken with my 2012 compact Olympus camera since early 2018. I have got used to that mark, the bigger the higher optical zoom I set.

Down in Zgorzała, standing by ul. Dawidowska, looking north. The viaduct in the distance seems to be a part of the Zamienie junction, currently having no link to the existing road infrastructure.

Standing nearly in the same spot, looking south. The pylons suggest ul. Dawidowska will run beneath the expressway in a tunnel. For no apparent reason, this venue does not exhibit a high progress of works.

Still in Zgorzała, looking west towards housing estates in Zamienie whose dwellers will also find the expressway audible (despite noise barriers, humming can be heard within half a mile from a fast-traffic carriageway).

The viaduct marked on the map of the project as WD-4 is now in the middle of a field, but it is bound to link ul. Raszyńska in Zamienie with ul. Postępu in Zgorzała (i.e. the place from which the snap was taken).

On to Nowa Wola where ul. Krasickiego also has been put into a tunnel. If you zoom in, you should see lighting installed inside it. Inside the tunnel actually everything seems to be nearly ready, while outside there is no point in doing any finishing works, as construction machines would spoil the effects of tidying up.

I was quite astonished to behold two flyovers built over ul. Postępu in Nowa Wola. As it turns out, they are a part of a bigger junction connecting the designed DW721 and S7. The viaduct will carry slip roads – the north will take westbound traffic from Piaseczno to Warsaw, the south one will take all northbound traffic from S7 towards both Piaseczno and Lesznowola.

The last shot comes from ul. Słoneczna in Kolonia Lesznowola, where the current DW721 runs into the tunnel. All 3 tunnels I photographed are quite similar. Less than a mile south from here the section A has its end. Further works are not carried out after the National Road Authority has terminated agreement with the general contractor of section B. If the section A is completed within the deadline, first drivers should be able to get from Warszawa Południe junction to Lesznowola, and no further, in November 2022.

Cycled home through Piaseczno. Traffic was quite dense given several types of shops are shut down since today. Then through Las Kabacki again. As I approach home, I run across a scene customary on ul. Moczydłowska on Saturdays and Sundays – a Straż Miejska patrol putting wheel blockers to drivers who illegally parked their cars in a residential zone. I am all into this. Feel like strolling into the forest – take a longer walk and leave your car (if public transport or bike are not an option) where it is permitted, instead of almost driving into the very woodland!

Sunday, 21 March 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 52 & 53

Monday, 8 March 2021
The Polish government seems to take a wait-and-see approach to the third wave of the virus, which is close to the “let it drift” Swedish model. Infections are rising, restrictions are not imposed, social discipline is low and nobody knows which factors can preclude the ailing health service from collapsing.

Tuesday, 9 March 2021
Anyone keeping track of pandemic statistics discerns seasonality in reporting over the week. New infections are the highest from Wednesday to Saturday. The later during the week the peak is observed, the more clogged up the testing system is.

Wednesday, 10 March 2021
My parents receive the first dose of Pfizer mRNA vaccine in Grójec, mere 40 kilometres from home. The appointment for the second dose is on 14 April 2021, i.e. 35 days after the first one (vs. maximum duration of 42 days).

Thursday, 11 March 2021
The anniversary of my last day in the office. I am sick and tired of home office, but given the rising number of new infections (today: over 21,000) it definitely is the lesser of two evils.

Friday, 12 March 2021
AstraZeneca vaccine is temporarily withdrawn in nine European countries after lethal blood clots subsequent to jabbing are reported. Such incidences are not reported in the UK where the vaccine is widespread. In Poland the vaccine is notorious for its flu-like side effects.

Saturday, 13 March 2021
Warminsko-mazurskie province which has been into lockdown for 2 weeks does not see a substantial decline in new infections. Is the UK variant or the lack of social discipline to blame?

Sunday, 14 March 2021
Looking at charts showing new infections, I cannot resist an impression that Poland follows the path of Hungary, but lags approximately two weeks behind it. This means around 25 March we might see between 35,000 and 40,000 new infections daily. Given the healthcare system is already overwhelmed, such scenario would mean thousands of excess deaths.

Monday, 15 March 2021
The first day of a soft lockdown (which means there is no illegal stay-at-home order) in Mazowsze. In Warsaw and around statistics of new infections are already worse than in the peak of the autumnal wave, yet the current wave has not reached its peak yet.

Tuesday, 16 March 2021
From today on, anybody can apply for a referral for a PCR test through an online form. A solution whose goal is to offload GPs has to be amended on a first day, since unless you have all symptoms and have been in contact with an infected person, there risk is assessed as low or medium and the system does not qualify you for testing.

Wednesday, 17 March 2021
The number of patients under ventilators reaches 2,193 and is already higher than at the peak of the autumnal wave (2,149 on 23 November 2020). Over 25,000 new infections reported and the third wave, fuelled by the UK variant and lack of social discipline is picking up speed.

Thursday, 18 March 2021
In Strzelin district, Lower Silesia province, 1 in 543 inhabitants was tested positive yesterday. Nation-wide, with over 27,000 new infections we are not far from all-time record of the pandemic (27,785 new infections reported on 7 November 2020).

Friday, 19 March 2021
The number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Poland crosses 2,000,000. It took 273 days for the first million to be hit (on 2 December 2020) and 107 days for the second million. I bet the third million is reached in the first decade of May. My exact bet is on 8 May 2021.
Strzelin district looms as a horrifying hotbed of the virus, with 1 in 345 inhabitants tested positive yesterday. If such proportion held for the entire country, 110,000 new infections would be reported. Our daily testing capacity is around 160,000.

Saturday, 20 March 2021
Number of patients in hospital in Poland exceeded the peak from the autumnal wave (23,033 beds occupied on 17 November 2020).
Really bad days are ahead. The dynamics of new infections has risen this week to 36% week-on-week. The soft lockdown effective as of today will decrease the transmission, but unless people get scared the reproduction coefficient will stay above 1.0, which worries me.

Sunday, 14 March 2021

Dirty linen, washed in public

Watched, at time with bated breath, the controversial interview given by Meghan Markle and prince Harry to Oprah Winfrey. I have never been into fade of the Royal Family, nor particularly interested in their affairs, but gotten familiar with how the “Institution” functions inside out, I have promised myself to read a bit to catch up.

Needless to say, public image of the Royal Family is about keeping up appearances. A well-read man knows the Institution which has lasted centuries and which a symbol of the British Empire badly needs to look out impeccably and be perceived as such. Members of the Royal Family are obliged to take care of the impeccable image, at the expense of personal happiness. In fact this is their service, not a job, a service.

If everybody knows the Royal Family is definitely not as perfect as the picture of it painted in the media, why is there so much fuss about the interview? Meghan and Harry have decided to sign out of the charmed circle of strict rules and begun their own, unconstrained life, far from the golden cage there had been trapped in. They have also decided to divulge details from the Royal Family which were meant to never be brought to the life. The account of ruthlessness, duplicity and harassment within the Institution is anything, but astonishing.

Oddly enough, the Royal Family’s popularity with Britons is none the worse for the interview. It looks like the British citizens expect a neat, immaculate façade from the Royal Family and do not give a damn about the expense at which it is achieved. The perception of Meghan and Harry’s decision to wash some dirty linen in public is unfavourable. Such disapproval reflects condemnation for speaking up when evil is around and actually shows up conservatism of the British society. But if you break down the stances towards the interview by age groups, the elderly in majority disapprove of it, while the youngsters rather approve of the openness in speaking loudly about murky stuff.

Personally I note Meghan and Harry have displayed consistence in their deeds. At first they have chosen to loosed their links with the Royal Family and pay the price of getting financially independent, just a year after they divulged to the public facts which should take aback nobody.

Besides, do watch out for Harry’s worn-out suit and shoes :)

The interview has prompted me to catch up on the story of princess Diana, who was extremely popular with Britons, but was falling out of line with the old-fashioned image of the Royal Family. Time to catch up soon.

 

Apologies for mediocre quality of the posting. Writing-wise, I am not at my best today. Several of my friends are now down with COVID-19, including two in hospitals. My parents’ friend (for me uncle Krzysiek, somebody closer to me than relatives) is now under ventilator. I confess I simply worry and hope the third wave will not be as tragic as it looms.

Sunday, 7 March 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 50 & 51

Monday, 22 February 2021
Minister Michał Dworczyk, being in charge of the vaccination programme in Poland is tested positive for COVID-19. The amount of hate in comments to the announcement on his Twitter account is horrifying.

Tuesday, 23 February 2021
My mother gets a phone call from an administrator of the local University of the Third Age. She asks if my mother wants to take a (clandestine) coach trip. There are plenty of 60+ participants eager to finally get out of their homes. My mother turns it down…

Wednesday, 24 February 2021
In response to the rising number of infections the government announces lockdown in one of province and formally prohibit face covering other than masks. Besides, no new restrictions are announced. They wait for the story to unfold.

Thursday, 25 February 2021
There are 3 responses to the pandemic which has been with us for nearly a year:
1) apathy (I exhibit it),
2) aggression (understandably, though not commendably),
3) denial (worryingly).
The third one is the most dangerous way of overcoming the fatigue with restrictions and longing for normalcy. Even among my reasonable friends I see more and more of those who take “let things drift” stance

Friday, 26 February 2021
Given that people no longer give a damn about overwhelmed hospitals and hundreds of excess deaths, I wonder that would have to happen to prompt people to hold back from living normally and return to the same discipline we as a society exhibited in March 2020.

Saturday, 27 February 2021
Last week I went to a health centre to have a doctor examination for have my driving licence renewed, then to a photographer . This week I went to a library to borrow books and to a car parts shop to buy a bodywork paint to repair a scratched wing. In none of those places staff wore face masks.

Sunday, 28 February 2021
New cases week-on-week up by 37% (vs. +29.6% in a previous week). My bet for the next week is +45% and that the moving 7-day average reaches 12,500 new cases on Saturday, 6 March.

Monday, 1 March 2021
Politicians in their decisions whether to impose, retain of lift restrictions need to strike a balance between health service capacity, saving lives, economic and social effects of lockdowns, as well as mental and physical health of those who escape an infection. With time they tilt towards economy opening rather than saving lives. They follow sentiments of the society, who long for normalcy, even at the expense of more deaths.

Tuesday, 2 March 2021
7-day moving average of new infections crosses 10,000. A five digit number was last witnessed on 16 December 2020. It took 55 days of descent and then 21 days of ascent to reach five digits again.

Wednesday, 3 March 2021
10 million tests have been carried out in Poland since the beginning of the pandemic, i.e. in exactly one year. Poland ranks second in the European Union in terms of the lowest number of tests per 1 million citizens (behind Bulgaria).

Thursday, 4 March 2021
Exactly a year ago the first case of coronavirus was officially detected in Poland. The anniversary is marked by over 15,000 new infections, a figure last seen in the third decade of November 2020.

Friday, 5 March 2021
Changes in vaccination scheme are announced. The recovered will be administered just one dose, six months after being tested positive. The time between doses is extended for all vaccines. The new rules are to take effect on Monday.

Saturday, 6 March 2021
Checkpoint of my predictions made last Sunday.
New infections: +29.6% week-on-week (lower than my forecast of +45%)
7-day moving average of new infections: 12,066 (lower than my forecast of 12,500).

Sunday, 28 February 2021

Banking - no longer a land of milk of honey

The end of month. My employer, affected by several adverse external factors (the pandemic, low interest rates, excess liquidity on the market) in a pursuit of cost savings and switching into more automated solutions, is conducting lay-offs. The last day of a month are chosen to hand in notices, to shorten misery of those made redundant and minimise their payroll and severance packages. The laid-off will have it uphill in terms of finding a job in financial sector in which headcount is on decline. Those who are kept in have few reasons to be cheerful, since efficiency per employee must rise and automation of processes does not apply to those whose work is not repeatable.

The style of work in banking no longer resembles residing in a land of milk and honey. Before the financial crisis bankers would do overtime more or less often and received sky-high financial rewards. Today toiling away has become less spectacular, more mundane. To blame is the growing extent of regulation the industry is subject to. On one hand I praise measures put in place to prevent a financial collapse witnessed in 2008, on the other I grit my teeth when I focus on ticking off fulfilling requirements from regulators instead of concentrating on sheer analytical work. The burden of regulations generates additional costs to the industry, which additionally faces competitive pressure on revenue side.

If I were to change a job, a transfer within the banking industry makes no sense. All banks are under the same pressure, room for salary increase is limited given my earnings. I do not slog like a dog and have established myself a reputation with my workmates. Benefits of changing a job would not make up for starting building my value from scratch. The only option is hence to move outside the banking industry.

What could persuade me to change a job? At the present I do long yearn for more money, albeit with a prospect of raising a family and wanting to buy or build a house, dough would come in handy. The new occupation would have to let me develop my competencies and not be repetitive. It ought to be challenging, yet not stressful. I would love to feel what I do matters, which seems a rarity, if one works as a clog in a corporate machine. Besides, balance between time spent at work and private life is of profound importance to me.

A few years ago I thought I would find it hard to come up with the idea of what to do in life, if I had a plenty of assets and could live off the income they produce. Today, as I have grown mature, I realise I would spend my time and energy on charity or / and on semi-political or expert organisations, to strive for a better tomorrow. This would sadly likely bring letdowns similar to what I have experienced with Szlachetna Paczka.

Sunday, 21 February 2021

Pandemic diary – weeks 48 & 49

Monday, 8 February 2021
I wholeheartedly recommend the film, whose title can literally translated as “The sharp (or acute) shadow of a fog” to anyone interested in malfunctioning of medical rescue services in the pandemic.

Tuesday, 9 February 2021
The Polish Ministry of Health publishes a report on excess deaths in 2020, examines numbers and… draws little conclusions. Upon making allowance for demographic trends, Poland witnessed around 62,000 excess deaths in 2020. As the report says, the coronavirus is the predominant cause of majority of premature deceases. But it fails to mention lack of access to medical aid as the second major cause of increased mortality.

Wednesday, 10 February 2021
I pick up a parcel containing 25 FFP2 masks. If things countrywide get worse, I will pass some of them to my parents for use before they get vaccinated twice, some will be left for myself, in case the Polish government proscribes use of such masks in selected public spaces, as their German or Austrian counterparts did.

Thursday, 11 February 2021
New cases rise week-on-week by 8%, the 7-day moving average has reversed into the uptrend. Steepness of the imminent incline remains in the realm of the unknown. I bet as long as schools are not further reopened, the pandemic is not going to explode.

Friday, 12 February 2021
Czech Republic is the first large (above 10,000,000 citizens) country in which 10% of the entire population have been officially tested positive. Given several times more have surely not been detected, the country ought to be moving towards herd immunity. In theory; in practice the pandemic does not slow down.

Saturday, 13 February 2021
More and more medical pundits assert the vaccine will not bring us back to normalcy, as those vaccinated will be reasonably protected against death, critical hazard to health of complications from the virus, but may still transmit to others. Preliminary results from Israel indicate the vaccine also reduces transmission, yet those conclusions need to be approached with caution.

Sunday, 14 February 2021
The percentage of the UK variant in countries such as Germany, Denmark and France is rising. In Poland, sequencing based on a small sample indicates in Poland it accounts for less than 10% of infections.

Monday, 15 February 2021
The state of emergency is eventually extended in Czech Republic. This will save hundreds of lives, but the humanity will not wintess results of an experiment, which might, but was not poised to be tragic.

Tuesday, 16 February 2021
Pictures of Poles partying at the streets of Zakopane over the last weekend prove my compatriots behave like cattle freed out of a cage.

Wednesday, 17 February 2021
Covid-19 death meter hits 500,000 in the United States, but is bound to slow down. Pace of vaccination programme is impressive and the number of new infection has been on substantial decline for 5 weeks now.

Thursday, 18 February 2021
The February / March 2021 wave will likely be smaller than the October / November 2020 wave. The number of people with antibodies is probably between 5 and 10 million, most of them are the most active. Plus we have nearly a million of fully vaccinated citizens. On the other hand we have a starting point 10 times higher than in September 2020. Thanks to ongoing vaccinations it will hopefully be less deadly.

Friday, 19 February 2021
The Polish government intends to crack down on use of face visors, scarves and other clothing as face covering. Face masks will be the only legitimate way of covering nose and mouth. The actual problem is that the current regulations are not enforced and an increasing number of people do not give a damn about proper face covering.

Saturday, 20 February 2021
Week-on-week growth in the number of new infections in recent days:
- Tuesday: +27.7%,
- Wednesday: +25.4%,
- Thursday: +29.4%,
- Friday: +37.6%,
- Saturday (today): +29.2%.

Sunday, 14 February 2021

Twitter

My New Year’s resolution for 2021 was to set up an account on Twitter. I report I did so on 6 January 2021.

I confess to have had ambitions to become an influencer for years. In recent months they have given way to an unhealthy inclination to root out all the evil in the world and a predilection to engage in discussions with people and institutions followed by thousands of Twitter users. I also wanted to vent my anger with current goings-on, so that my voice became audible.

Just like with blogging, I am constrained by my profession. Several weeks ago a CEO of a large company being a client of my employer made a nasty remark on my profile picture on facebook. The chap is known for his pro-life views, while my profile picture reflected my pro-choice stance. I kindly rebutted his conversation starter by underlining my private views were not the subject of our business call. It worked and the conversation had absolutely no echoes in the organisation, yet reminded me I ought to preserve my anonymity.

After a weeks of presence on Twitter, I have the following observations:
- quickness of reaction does matter – if you want to reply wittily to someone’s tweet, you have less than one minute to invent, type and publish it; otherwise someone else will come up with the same thought,
- the application is a veritable time-suck,
- reputable users with thousands of followers just send tweets and let things drift, i.e. do not engage in discussions in comment threads to their tweets,
- wise people usually do not spend time online sharing their wisdom, but cretins have plenty of time and energy to show off their stupidity.

Tweeter has reminded me of an old Polish adage: Nie dyskutuj z idiotą. Najpierw sprowadzi dyskusję do swojego poziomu, a potem pokona doświadczeniem. Or the meme to the right. It also brought back memories of clashes with fellows of Toyah on his blog a decade ago. Ten years have passed but the rhetoric of trolls has not evolved much.

In my futile mission to save the world I wished to crack down on the most harmful group of trolls quite numerous these days, i.e. anti-vaxxers. Predictably, it just ended up with dead-end polemics with fools. I wonder who has a vested interest in widespread activity in anti-vaccination campaigning. The answer that it could be tracked down to Russia does not hold water, as Russians have produced their own vaccine, therefore painting the picture of death-causing vaccines makes no sense.

The eye-popping activity of anti-vaxxers has also prompted me to rethink my views of freedom of speech and censorship. Does somebody who espouses crossing an intersection on red light, claims drunk-driving is ok or praises benefits of domestic violence in fostering family relationships deserve to be deprived of their right to share their views? Should we count on collective wisdom of people who ought to recognise scribble put out by a downright idiot or should be ban harmful content on the Internet?

Moreover, I grow on an idea of giving up social media entirely. Just to evade loads of rubbsih out there and to save my nerves which I can't help fraying. 

By the way, it has been nearly 12 years since my first post on the blog...