For some time the concept of this blog has been to save moment for
posterity, therefore I have resolved to take down some notes on how the first
ten days of Putin’s invasion looked from my perspective. It is not going to be
a coverage of the military conflict which can be found in the media anyway. It
will be just a personal record of my thoughts, musings and observations, so
that one day I can revisit it and bring days the memories of dismal days which
hopefully become the history soon, with a fortunate outcome.
Day 1 – Thursday, 24 February 2022
My phone shut down before 3 a.m. I deliberately have not left it on a
charger overnight. I decide to charge it up in the morning. I get up at 5:30
a.m., eat a small breakfast and before setting off to the swimming pool, I
connect the charger and switch the phone on. I check the recent posts on
Twitter. I know it has begun.
After swimming I want to take a shower. For no apparent reason it does
not flow. My skin stinks with chlorine, but I head home. Warsaw carries on.
Back home I learn the worst-case scenario of full-scale invasion has
materialised.
A hard day at work begins. Nobody calls off business as usual due to the
cruel attack on the Poland’s neighbour. Never in my lifetime has the warfare
been so close to where I live. I find it hard to focus on work, like all the
workmates. As we talk, it turns out most of us were hoping Putin would hold his
horses. It was naïve, he is a ruthless psychopath, ready to scorch the earth to
bring in his visions. Analogies between Germany after WW1 and Russia after the
fall of the Soviet Union are so vivid.
As the sunset draws, panic-mongers begin to queue up to petrol stations.
Those idiots firstly send money to Putin, secondly contribute to self-fulfilling
prophecy that petrol stations might run out of fuel.
As the evening comes up, I feel exhausted. Partly because of tough 10
hours at work, partly because I fear how the story unfolds. The tsar is
unpredictable.
Day 2 – Friday, 25 February 2022
With the invasion it became clear that accounts which used to spread
pro-pandemic and anti-vaccine disinformation have now become pro-kremlin and
ant-Ukrainian overt trolls.
The VPN in my company notebook keeps disconnecting itself for the second
day in a row. A coincidence?
In the evening I team up with my mates from Szlachetna Paczka. I devise a plan of setting up “starter kits” for
refugee families which would settle down locally. My mates immediately agree to
join, so I let the mayor of Ursynów
know about our initiative. He promises to keep us informed.
Day 3 – Saturday, 26 February 2022
In the morning I walk to the Lidl shop next door and buy two bags of
hygiene materials and cosmetics (Rexona
and Dove away from my basket), pack
the stuff into a cardboard box and drop it to a local collection point. I ask
to hand it over to the Ukrainian side of the borders, where it would be more
necessary than in Poland.
If I could, I would send them weapons! But more and more countries
declare such form of support to Ukraine, which is reassuring.
The spurt of Poles rushing to help Ukraine is spirit-lifting, but will
it be long-lasting? It will be a marathon, not a sprint.
When I think of sanctions levied to Russia by the civilised world, I
believe the main reason for some countries’ reluctance towards them is the cost
of financial isolation. Yes, we have to pay the price for keeping Russia at
bay, but the lost profits now are a good investment is the payoff is the
absence of Russian tanks in the territory of Poland.
Americans urge their citizens to leave Belarus immediately. They are in
the know again.
I pop by to some petrol stations and learn temporary shortages of fuel
are a fact. Not only those who panic are to blame for it. Several people take
trips in their private cars to the Ukrainian border and fuel up their vehicles
in advance, thus boosting demand for fuel (and sending money partly to Putin’s
pocket). The aid should be better co-ordinated, I believe.
Day 4 – Sunday, 27 February 2022
In the morning my father and I drop my mum off to the cardiac hospital
in Anin for a planned treatment
(ablation) for a few days. I realise she is stressed-out, not only by the
planned surgery, but also since she knows she will be sorry for Ukrainian
personnel working there. Admittedly, the willingness to keep company to my
mother dragged me away from the involvement in aid to Ukrainians this weekend.
But given the social response, I do not need to feel guilty.
In the fourth day of war, Ukraine is doing definitely better than expected,
with Ukrainians proving not only bravery, but also shrewdness.
After a few days of silence, Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons. In
his paranoia, he is capable of turning large swathes of land into nuclear
deserts.
Freezing Russian central bank’s assets will be more painful than
exclusion of most of the country’s commercial banks from SWIFT payment system.
I fear how markets react tomorrow.
Day 5 – Monday, 28 February 2022
In a conversation with my workmates I strongly posit the only way out
would be to kill Putin. Easier said than done. He is protected too well to make
an assassination doable for a foreign intelligence agent, but Putin will not be
alive for long. Irate oligarchs or infuriated military officer might be the
ones to liquidate him.
My Facebook account gets restricted on account of posting a derogatory
film mocking at Putin. The blockade is imposed by an algorithm, hence I file a
complaint. Thus I become a passive user of the platform.
At work there is no major turmoil. For many years lending to companies
involved in doing business in Russia was an excessive risk to my employer.
Today the restraint pays off.
Boycotting goods with bar codes starting from “4 60”? Noble, yet you
will find few of them in the shops, as Russia manufactures little. If you want
to spite Putin, turn off the radiator in your dwelling and walk, cycle or take
public transport whenever possible. Besides, time to boycott Polish companies
which carry on doing business in Russia.
This is the first day of actual carnage of civilians in that war.
Shelling residential estates in Kharkiv and shooting civilians on the city’s
streets bear out Russians are barbarians. This is genocide.
Besides, conceivably the premises near the Polish-Ukrainian border might
be attacked by Russian aircrafts.
Day 6 – Tuesday, 1 March 2022
Putin has done what no man has not done for decades. He messed with
nearly everybody across the world and brought so many united against him.
My Facebook account gets unlocked after a verification by a human.
There is evidence Russia used vacuum bombs in Ukraine, so far not
against civilians. Such weapons are prohibited by conventions and kill even
people hiding in shelters.
Russian trolls work at full blast in the Polish Internet to sling muck
at refugees from Ukraine. Poland must not fall victim of disinformation!
Day 7 – Wednesday, 2 March 2022
I learn with antidepressants I still take, though in lower doses, I
cannot be a blood donor, while blood is what Ukrainian hospital need to rescue
the injured soldiers.
My mother’s ablation is called off or rather put off until Friday. She
is stressed-out and it also affects me. Her health is a yet another reason for
concern to me.
In the neighbourhood I spot three cars on UA number plates. Glad
somebody has played host to them. I admire people who let Ukrainians stay at
their homes. I am afraid that would be beyond my comfort zone. Besides, such
accommodation might last months.
Day 8 – Thursday, 3 March 2022
A week into the war, most people have shaken off the shock and are
slowly coming to terms with the new reality, meaning the war is waged just
across the border. With time indifference will grow.
I no longer take it for granted the war does not spill into Poland. The
membership into NATO might scare off Russia, but the attach on the Treaty will
bring the world on the brink of the nuclear war. I sadly have very little
impact on the course of events, hence I convince myself not to worry in
advance.
Three cars on UA number plates parked outside my block of flats. Will
there be many more? Or is it just a stopover?
Brent oil price reaches nearly 120 USD per barrel, while USD/PLN trades
around 4.30. I see double-digit inflation coming to Poland and the threat of
stagflation to the whole civilised world. The least civilised part of its will
be back into the misery of late 1980s.
Day 9 – Friday, 4 March 2022
Wake up to the news Russian missiles nearly missed the biggest nuclear
power plant in Europe. Given the lack of precision of the Russian obsolete and
run-down military stuff, I suppose we were lucky to have averted a nuclear
disaster. Have the invaders lost control or are they trying to blackmail the
civilised world?
I somewhat fear the aggressor might attack the Polish-Ukrainian border
and civilians aiding there. With the uncivilised enemy, everything is
conceivable.
NATO keeps holding back from getting involved in the conflict. I believe
the fear of WW3 is the key reason for their restraint. Hoping their words about
getting prepared for the worst-case scenario are not just hollow declarations.
In the afternoon my mother has her ablation. Preliminarily doctors say
the treatment is successful.
Day 10 – Saturday, 5 March 2022
So far over 700,000 (exact numbers vary depending on source) refugees
from Ukraine crossed the border with Poland. Will they be able to returns to
their homes and rebuild their country soon? Will Poles exhibit so much
hospitality towards them as they do these days? Will European Union help Poland
take the burden of allocating refugees across the member states? Are the just
past the first wave of migrants? Is it just the beginning? So many questions
remain unanswered.
Helping Ukrainians will be a marathon, not a sprint, while people who
rush to aid are sadly likely to run out of energy and resources far too soon. I
recall the beginnings of the pandemic, the spurt of responsibility and
solidarity which gave way to fatigue and indifference several weeks later.
If this all is hopefully over, there will come the time to bring to
account those who advocated Russia recently. The first to be cracked down on
will be the deputies of Konfederusja,
mentally ill Grzegorz Braun and eccentric nutter Janusz Korwin-Mikke. Support
for the far-right party declined below 5%. Hope they won’t make it to the
parliament in 2023.
