London, weekend

Back from my first-ever (surprised) foray to an English-speaking country. I flew there for 3 days during the past weekend, to visit my girlfriend’s friends and… make the most of the presence there sight-seeing wise.

The plane tickets (British Airways) were the most expensive out of all I have purchased in my lifetime. A return ticket without checked luggage set me back almost PLN 900 (had we not been forced to conform to our hosts’ availability, I could have saved some PLN 200, let’s face it, flying has to be expensive, to discourage some people from frequent air travels or to make people pay for their carbon footprint.

As mentioned, we did not have to pay for the accommodation directly, however at the expense of enduring my girlfriend’s friends’ numerous attempts to kill us with kindness and withstanding the central heating turned on when temperature outside was +20C.

We got around the city mostly on foot, as short-distance public transport rides are a bit of pricey (although the GBP 2.70 per single ride within Zone 1 did not seem a fortune). We also experienced the longest queuing in our lifetimes – almost two hours of wait to behold the jewels exhibition in the Tower of London.

The weather was more than fine, given we popped in to the UK’s capital. Not a single raindrop has fallen during our stay, and most of the time skies were clear. Temperature topped close to +20C on each day. To the right – a view from the Tower Bridge walkway on Thames and Canary Wharf in the distance.

The Mall between the Trafalgar Square and the Buckingham Palace resemble Parisian Champs-Elysees, except for they are shorter and… closed for traffic, a big upside of the venue. When it comes to traffic, its density in the central London zone, with entry conditioned upon paying a GBP 15 congestion charge has taken me aback.

A wall past the boulevard opposite to the Houses of Parliament commemorates the UK citizen whose life have been taken away by COVID-19, a symbolic spot Poland still lacks. The death toll of 226,196 is quite up-to-date, since the last update on Covid Worldometer gives the figure of 225,324 as of 23 March 2023.

The Trafalgar Square was the noisiest venue in the entire city, with droves of protesters screaming out what they hold out for through megaphones. We got away from there possibly quickly. Due to time scarcity, we also did not pay a visit to the National Gallery visible in the distance.

The swathes of green areas open to everyone are one of few upsides of the central London. The Hyde Park and Kensington Gardens through which I strolled on Sunday morning are a beautiful area central Warsaw sadly lacks (although Pole Mokotowskie and Park Skaryszewski are splendid anyway).

The Shard, completed in 2012, to my surprise is exactly as tall as Varso Tower in central Warsaw (both have a height of 310 metres). The skyscraper overlooks the morose City of London. Back in pre-COVID times, when Michael visited London regularly, he aptly described the city as “drab”. I find this epithet profoundly accurate; a pity the Polish language lacks a word conveying exactly the same meaning.

London is also the most expensive city I have ever visited. The entry prices to sights other than museums seemed justified by the heritage of past centuries and costs their upkeep and as a sightseeing freak I have made a deliberate choice to fork out money. But the stomach-filling bills in anything, but fancy bars / pubs in central London were paid through the nose.

While confronted with the prices, I was curious to compare them against earnings in the capital of the UK. I learnt an average (or median, if my memory does not serve me right) after-tax salary in London is GBP 30,000 yearly (or GBP 2,500 per month). Unless prices of basic goods are lower in the suburbs than in central London, this allows to eke out a living, but is definitely insufficient to lead a comfortable life.

Two full days were far too short for a proper sightseeing, yet given the fact I cannot be sure I ever return there, I decided to make the most of the trip. Needless to say, I spent Monday working from home, just ticking over, to have a bit of rest after the intensive weekend.

Off to Wisła and then to Bieszczady around the middle of the coming week, so the next write-up is due in three weeks.

S7 expressway – section between Lesznowola and Tarczyn opened

Each time when a new section of an expressway was opened for traffic in the vicinity of Warsaw, I celebrated it by driving the car to a newly opened piece of infrastructure. With the section B of S7 expressway, since 27 April 2023 accessible to motorists as “passable” with a delay of some 18 months (finishing works will continue for a year or so), I refrained from such indulgence. Sooner or later I am going to use it, but I will not take any trouble to accelerate that moment.

If I avoid unnecessary journeys by car, that one definitely ranks among them. I take pleasure in driving a vehicle (unless it comes with automatic transmission or no gearbox at all), but I realise this is not an environmentally acceptable activity, hence I hold my horses, falling back on public transport, my bicycle and my feet whenever possible. Such approach benefits not only the planet, but also my fitness and my wallet.

While spending over a week in Wisła recently, the car was parked for this entire period in the garage. We moved about to shops, to the town centre or took trips by bicycle and got on with it, despite the undulating terrain. You could say to do this we had to drive almost 400 kilometres by car and then cover the same distance on our way back to Warsaw. I refute the argument by saying if you take a dog, two bicycles, suitcases, food stocks and computers, it is a bit of nuisance to travel by train (or actually to the station, by train to Bielsko-Biała and then to Wisła).

My girlfriend thought we would need a bigger car to carry all stuff. In fact, with smart packing my Megane hatchback can carry two adults, two bicycles, two suitcases, a few smaller bags and a dog which has 1 sqm area it the boot for itself. Now try to convince me there is any practicable justification to buy a hefty SUV, if a compact car is so capacious (if you need even more space, buy an estate compact car). With respect to the environmental impact, I set tempomat at 100 kmph and my excellently reliable, 12-year-old car consumes mere six and a half litres of petrol per 100 kilometres. Not little, but given its age and kilograms on board, I believe the fuel consumption is superb anyway.

Off to London for the first time in my life next weekend. Expect a coverage in two weeks!

Doing overtime :(

Regular readers of the blog might recall some time ago I posted a write-up of numerous goings-on at work. Though things have settled down a bit, my workload remains excessive. As promised by my employer, I got my first overtime allowance for 1Q2023 (actually for February and March only). Not a large amount of money, net-of-tax a four-digit amount, with “1” to the left.

The rollercoaster carried on in early April, so I requested some overtime orders (a manager must order an employee to work overtime). In the first week of the month my request was approved, but in the week following Easter, when I had to toil away intensively for up to 12 hours a day and after knocking off I could not string a sentence together, my request was turned down. The refusal was justified by my managers by the supposed termination of exceptional circumstances which occurred in 1Q2023.

Fortunately, my jaw did not draw open for long, so without second thoughts I instantly came up with three ways out of the absurd situation. First – they keep on paying me for doing overtime. Second – they reduce my workload. Third – I reconsider my career plans. Here they were up to the task, since they offered they would like to choose between the first and the second option and revert to me with a proposal. It ended up with me being allowed to request overtime pay until the end of 2Q2023. They pledged afterwards my workload gets reasonable, a promise I put no faith in.

For the time being I am focusing on surviving by the end of 2Q2023 (no fortnight-long holidays due in late spring this year) and getting a compensation for the inconvenience of working far more than 40 hours a week.

The squabble over my overtime pay has also mobilised me to browse job advertisements for the first time since 2017 and do trying to find out what wages competitors offer. The outcome of short research was that I would find it hard to negotiate a basic salary at the par with my current one and give up on generous (above-market) bonuses (my bonus for tough 2022 was effectively my 13^th, 14^th, 15^th, 16^th and 17^th salary this year). The potential reward for much lower earnings could be potentially lower workload, possibly at the expense of handling tasks below my (pardon my lack of modesty – superb) competencies. Thus I have become a hostage of money…

The recent state of affairs has also made me reconsider priorities in life. I want the frequent sitting overtime to be a temporary measure, while in the mid-term, I prefer to renounce the overtime compensation (which will not make me much richer) and have more time for living my life, not sacrificing it to a callous corporation.

Next post in three weeks, since I am off to Wisła for the long weekend and the shortened working week.

What’s new in the neighbourhood – in 2023

In early April I learnt from a local newspaper the revitalisation of Park Cichociemnych, whose beginnings I documented nearly a year ago, is drawing to a close. The makeover has been slated by locals and sadly, the voices of disapproval do not come from regular nit-pickers, but reflect how the area has been botched up.

To start with, the revitalisation kicked off in 4Q2021. Eighteen months since the works commenced their end is not in sight, which is more than a shame. One could build a house from scratch and furnish it over such period, while here nothing is built, just a recreational area is redeveloped. Below some snaps taken on Easter Sunday late afternoon.

The peak of Górka Kazurka is still fenced off, while the very summit for no apparent reason has been spoilt with concrete, needed there like a hole in the head. Areas where the grass has been sown are also protected from pedestrians and pets…

The centre of the park so far does not seem to meet the definition of greenery. Arid ground, sand, concrete slabs, fences, a bench in the middle of a muddy swathe of land. It took a year and a half to reach that stage of redevelopment.

Having moved further west, I put my camera lens between the mesh to capture what in some time is to become a recreational area, with benches, bicycle racks, flowerbeds and lawns. So far such picture can be seen with the eyes of imagination only.

To counter- balance the griping with some upsides – the bygone car park by the Astaldi construction base has been ripped off – many square metres of asphalt have given way to earth. The only remnants of the construction site are the run-down guard’s hut and a rickety VW Transporter.

At the western edge of the park its designers resolved to locate a good dating hangout for teenagers. For some unknown reason the spot is far from any dwellings, but close to the tunnel of Warsaw’s southern bypass (humming traffic well audible there). Note I was too lazy to roam around the park, so I cycled...

Looking east towards ul. Pileckiego – the meadow between 2018 and late 2022 had been occupied by Astaldi and cleared just a few months ago. The nature now is to reconquer the area. Dwellers of the blocks of flats in the distance seem to have a beautiful slight from their windows, but note the proximity of the bypass tunnel, with fumes and noise 24/7 does not add to the spirit of the place.

The bonfire shelter, once quite close to Górka Kazurka, has been relocated into the middle of the nearby birch coppice. Definitely a proper bonfire spot ought to be surrounded by trees. On Easter Sunday the shelter played host to some inebriated Ukrainians.

In April 2022 I complained the dog playground close to the forest was closed off to locals. It was opened soon later and is a place I happen to visit with Mela. The only drawback of the place is its muddiness (a top layer of sand would help keep soil drier after rain).

Winter Timeline 2022/23

The passing winter, with the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, was definitely not expected to be cold. For several reasons everyone kept fingers crossed for a warm one and long-term forecasts pointed at above-average temperatures in central and eastern Europe. With hindsight – they have proven right.

After the coldest September since 2013, October 2022 came out as the sixth warmest since records began. Mean temperature in Warsaw reached +11.2C (vs. long-term average of +8.7C), but still was colder than October 1907 when temperature in Warsaw averaged out +12.9C and Octobers in 2000 (+11.6C), 1896, 1967 and 2019 (all +11.3C). October 2022 was also frost-free, just like in 2020, 2018 and 2017. Nevertheless, ground frosts were observed on four days (10^th, 12^th, 20^th, 21^st days of the month).

 

17 November 2022
Usually when the first frost is witnessed so late, it bites sharply. Such was the case in 2008, 2017 and 2018.

18 November 2022
First day of thermal winter, with day-time high below 0C and dreadfully gusty, chilly wind.

19 November 2022
The first snow this season. Just a light dusting of it, yet enough to take road clearance services aback. Roads are icy in the morning. Then ensues some glorious sunshine.

20 November 2022 – 21 November 2022
Two days with lovely sunshine, really chilly mornings and day-time highs close to the point of freezing.

22 November 2022 – 23 November 2022
Quite chilly and cloudy, with temperature close to 0C.

24 November 2022
Wake up to see the first proper snow this season. The flurry continues until afternoon, however does not cause anticipated chaos on the roads.

25 November 2022 – 30 November 2022
Abhorrent gloom takes over. Not a moment of sunshine, temperature not much above freezing most of the time. Dark and damp…

November 2022 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +4.2C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). First half of the month was extraordinarily warm, while the second one, far colder than usual. Stats:
- month-time high: +15.5C on 8 November 2022,
- month-time low: –7.7C on 21 November 2022,
- the warmest day: 2 November 2022 (daily average of +11.5C):
- the coldest day: 19 November 2022 (daily average of –3.7C)
- number of days with snow cover: 4,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 25 November 2022.

 

1 December 2022
The weather pattern from the last days of November continues.

2 December 2022
Getting even colder, markedly below 0C. In the evening a freezing drizzle at –4C takes over.

3 December 2022
Morning greets with a supply of fresh snow. Temperature stays negative over the day, so the snow lingers.

4 December 2022 – 7 December 2022
The dullest countenance of late autumn – temperature barely above 0C, chilly wind, humid air, intermittent rain or snow showers.

8 December 2022 – 9 December 2022
Two relatively bright days, after 16 days of absolute lack of sunshine. The weather finally lifts spirits.

10 December 2022
The last day on the verge of late autumn and full-blown winter. Close to 0C, light snow.

11 December 2022
Winter begins in earnest. It snows quite heavily all day. Conditions for moving around are quite nasty, yet the scenery is lovely.

12 December 2022
The flurry continues throughout the day, but is not as heavy as yesterday. The abundant snow showers come ahead of the first double-digit frost in 2022.

13 December 2022
Light winter with some little supply of fresh snow.

14 December 2022
The first utterly sunny day since over 3 weeks brings the first double-digit solid frost in 2022.

15 December 2022
More of the white powder has fallen overnight, but the end of the winter episode is in sight.

16 December 2022
Snow showers come during the day this time, causing some chaos during the pre-Christmas rush on the roads.

17 December 2022 – 18 December 2022
A cold, cloudy weekend, with one snow shower. Winter gets boring.

19 December 2022
Temperature overnight plunges below –10C for the second and last time this year to give way to a bright day with clear blue skies. Nothing heralds a disaster…

20 December 2022
The rain fell overnight in sub-zero temperatures, which means Poland wakes up to struggle with ice rinks everywhere. Moving about is perilous. Conditions get better during the day, as surfaces are cleared of black ice and the temperature rises.

21 December 2022 – 23 December 2022
A solid thaw takes over, with intermittent spells of sunshine and rain showers which accelerate the pace in which snow disappears.

24 December 2022
Customarily, Christmas Eve is gloomy, rainy and warm (i.e. with temperatures above freezing).

25 December 2022 – 30 December 2022
Late autumn continues. Usually skies are overcast, but moment of sunshine occur as well. Temperatures range from –1C to +11C.

31 December 2022
A big warmth comes up and the air gets balmier as midnight draws in…

December 2022 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +0.6C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). The month had a normal first decade, a cold second decade and a warm third decade. Stats:
- month-time high: +14.2C on 31 December 2022 (the warmest moment in December high since 2015),
- month-time low: –14.3C on 14 December 2022,
- the warmest day 31 December 2022 (daily average of +9.3C, 0.2 Celsius degrees short of the warmest New Year’s Eve recorded in 2021),
- the coldest day: 14 December 2022 (daily average of – 8.2C),
- number of days with snow cover: 14,
- the highest snow depth: 16 centimetres on 17 December 2022.

 

1 January 2023
I can only regret I spend the last days of 2022 and the first days of 2023 inWisła. Temperature in Warsaw soars to +18.9C (official readout from W-wa Okęcie station), beating the previous January record by more than 5 Celsius degrees and setting the new January warmth record for Poland. Clear blue skies and abundant sunshine do help.

2 January 2023 – 3 January 2023
Slightly cooler, yet still day-time highs come into double digits, cloudy.

4 January 2023
Temperature at dawn declines well below 0C. I sense such phenomena will be a rarity this month.

5 January 2023
Gloomy, rainy, windy, warm. Feels like November.

6 January 2023
Evening brings a snow shower. A blanket of wet white powder covers Warsaw, as the temperature nears 0C.

7 January 2023
Those who reside in Warsaw and get up early still have a chance to see the remnants of yesterday’s. They melt quickly…

8 January 2023 – 16 January 2023
Late autumn returns. Few moments of sunshine, some rain showers, unpleasant wind, damp air, temperature from +1C to +9C.

17 January 2023 – 20 January 2023
Colder, temperature barely above freezing, occasionally below. A prevalent form of precipitation is sleet. A month-long period of warmth draws to a close.

21 January 2023
A snow blizzard which begins at night seems more impressive than the one which hit on 11 December 2022, but its disruptive potential is lower, as temperature stays above 0C. Had it hit during the working week, a traffic paralysis would not have been averted. It ceases to snow early in the afternoon and the melt ensues.

22 January 2023 – 24 January 2023
Temperature barely positive most of the time, with air humidity exceeding 90%, owing to which it feels like –10C. Cloudy, with some sleet or snow falling.

25 January 2023 – 26 January 2023
Two first days with negative mean temperature this year. Still depressingly drab.

27 January 2023 – 28 January 2023
A tad warmer, with a light dusting of snow, which melts while falling on warmed-up ground.

29 January 2023 – 30 January 2023
Now some proper snow, which lingers for a few hours, since temperature is close to freezing, but eventually disappears.

31 January 2023
Finally a bright day, with two hours of proper sunshine, something the capital of Poland missed for a fortnight.

January 2023 was extremely warm, actually the second warmest since measurements are taken, after January 2007 (mean temperature: +3.7C), but ahead of January 1983 (mean temperature: +3.2C). Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.4C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). Stats:
- month-time high: +18.9C on 1 January 2023 (the previous record, +13.8C set on 12 January 1993, broken, I believe despite the global warming it will take two or three decades before the next January warmth record is set, I regret not experiencing it),
- month-time low: –3.9C on 4 January 2023 breaking the record of the highest January’s low, i.e. –4.7C set in 1983 and touched in 2020),
- the warmest day: 1 January 2023 (daily average of +15.0C, also the warmest January day in Warsaw since records began),
- the coldest day: 29 January 2023 (daily average of –0.7C, i.e. just like in January 2020, when the coldest day had mean temperature of –0.5C, the coldest day was warmer than long-term average temperature for the whole month),
- number of days with snow cover: 5,
- the highest snow depth: 5 centimetres on 21 January 2023.

 

1 February 2023 – 2 February 2023
The last days of improper winter – still with positive temperature, rain, sleet and some sunshine.

3 February 2023
The next winter episode begins around 3 p.m. with a proper snowfall. Temperature gets negative.

4 February 2023 – 6 February 2023
Winter at last, all sort of weather, including light snow showers, freezing fog and glorious sunshine, at times windy. Single-digit frost all the time.

7 February 2023 – 9 February 2023
Day-time highs bring light thaw. At least bright, most of the time sunny. Snow nearly fully melts.

10 February 2023 – 11 February 2023
It thaws out for good, cloudy, with some instantly melting snow or sleet.

12 February 2023 – 15 February 2023
No incidences of negative temperature. At times sunny, at times rainy, usually windy. The weather drifting between winter and spring.

16 February 2023
Morning brings temperature of –4C and picturesque hoar frost. Then it warms up abruptly to +7C in the afternoon. Sunshine in abundance.

17 February 2023 – 19 February 2023
Exactly like at that time in 2022, a cyclone from above Scandinavia brings destructive gusty winds (above 100 kmph) and downpours.

20 February 2023
A very light dusting of slow fallen overnight disappears quickly. Then snow falls during the day, but melts immediately while air temperature stands at +2C. Gusts of wind still strong.

21 February 2023 – 23 February 2023
Cloudy, but not rainy and moderately warm (with one night-time frost). Beware though, another short winter episode is in the offing!

24 February 2023
The last warm day this month and rainy too!

25 February 2023
A day with a very changeable weather – from snow and sleet to full sunshine. Above freezing.

26 February 2023 – 27 February 2023
A tad colder, cloudy, with a little flurry.

28 February 2023
The long-awaited sunshine comes over, at the expense of large temperature fluctuations.

February 2023 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +1.4C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C). Stats:
- month-time high: +9.9C on 18 February 2023,
- month-time low: –8.0C on 6 February 2023 (so far no double-digit frost in 2023),
- the warmest day: 21 February 2023 (daily average of +6.6C),
- the coldest day: 6 February 2023 (daily average of –5.3C),
- number of days with snow cover: 10,
- the highest snow depth: 6 centimetres from 4 February 2023 to 6 February 2023.

 

1 March 2022 – 3 March 2023
While in south-western edge of Poland I enjoy full sunshine, Warsaw is under the blanket of fog or clouds. Temperatures go through 0C two times a day.

4 March 2023 – 5 March 2023
Chilly, with alight dusting of snow and nasty wind. Negative temperature most of the time.

6 March 2023
Some moments of glorious sunshine follow the coldest morning this year. Then it begins to snow in near-zero temperature and snows, at time heavily until late evening.

7 March 2023 – 8 March 2023
The same pattern - I wake up to behold a white blanket covering the capital of Poland. It disappears by midday, melted by sunrays, as temperature tops +5C.

9 March 2023
It snowed all night, it snows nearly all day. Temperature on the verge of freezing, so some of the snow lingers.

10 March 2023
It snowed at night, but the white powder disappeared soon, as temperature hit double digits for the first time since early January.

11 March 2023
The weather continues to be changeable – quite warm morning with drizzle gives way to snow showers in the afternoon.

12 March 2023
A sunny, but windy day with day-time high just below +5C. Have we seen the last of the winter?

13 March 2023 – 14 March 2023
Markedly warmer, with double-digit highs and sunshine on the latter day. Mid-term forecasts of the coldest March since 2018 are giving way to a prospect of abnormal warmth in the second half of the month.

15 March 2023
Back to pre-wintry weather. Still quite windy.

16 March 2023 – 17 March 2023
Twelve hours of sunshine each day, at the expense of morning frosts and with single-digit afternoon highs.

18 March 2023 – 21 March 2023
Rather sunny and warmer – night-time lows above 0C, day-time highs above +10C.

22 March 2023
All of a sudden – Warsaw is haunted by a night-time frost, but then temperature skyrockets to double-digits despite overcast skies.

23 March 2023 – 26 March 2023
Cloudy, at times rainy and warm – temperature above +5C over the entire period (on two former days nearing +20C), but winter has not said its last word.

27 March 2023
Biting chilly arctic wind makes +5C feel like –5C. Sadly, the assault of spring was short-lasting.

28 March 2023
A day with average temperature below –1C. Five degrees below zero at dawn, snow showers on and off during the day, with white powder lingering for an hour or two.

29 March 2023
Another cold morning, but this time followed by a sunny, lengthy day.

30 March 2023 – 31 March 2023
Warmer for a while, yet below +15C, spells of sunshine interspersed throughout rain showers.

March 2023 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +4.5C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +20.0C on 23 March 2023 (on the same day as in 2022),
- month-time low: –9.0C on 6 March 2023 (just like in 2022, year-to-date low is set in March),
- the warmest day: 24 March 2022 (daily average of +12.8C),
- the coldest day: 6 March 2023 (daily average of –2.3C),
- number of days with snow cover: 5,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 9 March 2023 and 10 March 2023.

 

1 April 2023
The last day of early spring. Bracing for the last touch of winter.

2 April 2023 – 6 April 2023
Winter (hopefully) gives its last gasp. Temperature between –5C and +8C. Most of the time gloomy as in November, but with some spells of sunshine. Worth noting –5.2C low measured on 5 April 2023 was the lowest temperature in Warsaw in April since 2003, while 5 April 2023 with average temperature of +0.1C was the coldest April day in the capital of Poland after 1950.

I hereby terminate the winter timeline, but according to long-term forecasts, we should not expect spring in overdrive and any incidence of +20C is a long way ahead. This will likely be the third April in a row substantially colder than long-term average (+9.2C for Warsaw). The tyre change due next Saturday.

COVID-19 timeline - 1Q2023

Friday, 13 January 2023
Despite middle of the winter, infections in Poland reach their low, with 7-day average number of infections down at 278.

Saturday, 4 February 2023
Two years and eleven months after the first registered COVID-19 case in Poland, I get a positive test result. My infection escapes the official statistics despite an attempt to get tested at GPs.

Tuesday, 14 February 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland rises above 1,000, for the first time since 25 October 2022. R(t) is around 1.40 and positivity rate close to 30%.

Friday, 24 February 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland rises above 2,000, for the first time since 13 October 2022. The positivity rate close to 35%.

Monday, 13 March 2023
There have been several infection clusters in my office. Luckily, my hybrid immunity kept my health at bay.

Wednesday, 15 March 2023
The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Poland reaches 3,235 – it has not been so bad since many months, which shows the scale of infections not reported officially.

Thursday, 16 March 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland rises above 3,000, for the first time since 4 October 2022. On this day the peak of the current wave is hit, with 3,012 cases reported on average daily during the recent 7 days.

Thursday, 23 March 2023
The hot topic is the availability of Paxlovid, the medicine effective at treatment serious COVID-19 cases. In Poland, it is not reimbursed and widely available, unlike in civilised western countries.

Tuesday, 28 March 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland declines below 2,000, for the first time since 23 February 2023. Going uphill took 20 days, going downhill – only 12 days.

Tuesday, 31 March 2023
I still observe many people sick around, yet fewer with C19, more with flu type B, whose course of infections are more serious (several days in bed with high fever).

Credit Suisse...

…has become a history. The demise of the legend of the European banking might symbolise a mini-banking crisis witnessed in early 2023. I deliberately underline its small scale, as comparing to the meltdown in late 2008, the current tribulations pose no major risk to the financial system. Nevertheless, the insolvency of the Silicon Valley Bank has reminded about terms such as bail-out, Chapter 11, deposit insurance.

The sixteenth largest bank in the USA had a quite specific portfolio of risky exposures to tech start-ups and venture capital businesses. Many of them no longer thrived as the pandemic officially came to an end, so online ventures had to wind down. Besides, several businesses could not withstand interest rate hikes to level unseen in the USA since 17 years. For one of the banks this turned out to be a recipe for a disaster, while the rest of the banking sector carry on. Investors indeed reacted to the collapse of SVB, but the sell-off on stock exchanges reflected uncertainty, rather than panic.

Credit Suisse going under has surprise nobody keeping track of the banking sector and the takeover by UBS is to ensure a soft landing to the financial system. The lesson to be learnt is to keep away from murky institutions, a label Credit Suisse had worked hard for. On this occasion I recalled being recruited by CS in 2017 and being turned down on account of exorbitant expectations towards my pay. Time has proven that deal was not meant to be nailed down.

The recent opinion of European Court of Justice on inequality of rights in case a CHF mortgage loan agreement is nullified also cast a shadow of doubt on stability of the banking system in Poland. In fact whoever panics is overreacting. The mortgages in CHF are in fact being slowly written down for nearly a decade and most of the burden has been absorbed. As tackling the problem was eventually spread over time, losses could be gradually absorbed by banks. Currently only some banks with the biggest exposures to mortgages in CHF might be in need of capital injection is the ECJ ruling (binding, unlike the aforementioned opinion), but the risk of a Polish bank being on a brink of collapse is low.

Investors feared the turmoil in the financial sector could spill over to the real economy, hence stock exchanges and commodities were in the red in March 2023. If you bet the markets are overreacting, than an opportunity to buy up underpriced assets has cropped up. Lower prices of crude oil and other commodities can also contribute to faster disinflation, which in turn is likely to boost economic revival.