…because writing on one adventure needed to take precedence, as thanks
to committing my thoughts to the blog, I have gotten the story off my mind, at
least temporarily… From time to time I wonder whether mere writing, without
hitting the “publish” button would not suffice…
Those
familiar with the theory of economics, surely know the concept of certainty equivalent. To put it simply, individuals prefer to be certain to receive a
small amount / quantity of a good rather than take a risk to get a chance to
receive larger amount / quantity of the good. This notion hinges upon
preference of humans to eliminate uncertainty in life and hold on to what one
can be sure of. In economic and social behaviours of individuals the theorem appears
to hold true, but behaviours of masses (less often in terms of economics) more
and more often call it into question. Notwithstanding, I am not wiping my eyes
in astonishment. Back when I was a student, I was told by lecturers interest
rates could not drop below zero. How short it takes to prove wrong notions that
had lasted for decades…
There is no
absolutely perfect thing in life. You cannot expect to have a perfect spouse,
friends, children. There is no perfect job, no perfect house, no perfect holidays,
no perfect vehicle. If you thought long enough you would find something to
enhance in everything that surrounds you. Imperfection is an indispensable part
of our lives, hence we ought to accept it and live with to the extent it is
tolerable or strive to change it where it goes beyond acceptability. Having
written this, I do not condemn striving for perfection, which in essence is
praiseworthy, as long as pursuit of perfection does not make you lose your
mind.
The Brexit referendum, or rather its result, is a spot-on example of rejecting an
imperfect, yet decent and predictable solution. Membership in the EU has not
been devoid of drawbacks, yet once you throw the baby out with the bathwater,
you ought to have a clear and feasible idea how to fill the bath again.
This brings
back a memory of a referendum held in Warsaw in October 2013 whether to oust
the then-mayor, Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz. The campaign of Mrs Gronkiewicz’s
opponents focused on her presidency’s shortcomings, but did not go beyond kicking
her out of office, i.e. shed no light on any plan how to improve the state of
affairs in Warsaw once she is deposed. Inhabitants of Warsaw discerned this
lack of constrictive alternative and voted their feet by not going to polling
stations. Consequently, the referendum was deemed invalid due to turnout below
validity threshold.
The Brexit
referendum is astonishingly similar to Polish parliamentary and presidential
elections in 2015 in Poland. Platforma Obywatelska and president Komorowski in
early 2015 were akin to the EU: they offered stability and predictability, yet
were self-focused, complacent and out of touch. Yet Poles and Brits have turned
their back on stability and predictability and opted for a change. But watch
out, in all three votes the winning side had a tiny majority. 51.89% of Brits
voted to leave. 51.55% of Poles voted for Mr Duda in the run-off, PiS scored
51.09% of seats in the parliament. Mathematically such results tip the scales,
yet just like a glass can be half-full or half-empty, they mean nearly half of
voters who exercised their right are displeased…
Similar
tendencies are witness across the world. In Austria in the recent election,
though the result has been overturned, an extreme-right candidate scored around
half of votes. On the horizon looms an imminent threat of Donald Trump becoming
the president of the United States, which given the country’s democratic
tradition and civic awareness of its residents, is horrifying and gives lie to
all fairy tales of what features a candidate for this office should exhibit.
What
manifests itself on macro scale can be witnessed on the level of individuals. I
have seen several people being so weary or dissatisfied with their jobs that
they grabbed any opportunity to move over to a different company. Usually with
hindsight they regretted their decisions and humbly admitted their previous
workplaces were not that bad, but their inner desire to change was stronger
than sound judgement… On the other hand, despite allegedly record-high number
of divorces and informal relationship break-ups, among my friends,
acquaintances and workmates aged 25 – 50, I do not see many people quitting
their partners because of a crush / infatuation / fascination with someone
else, or just seeking a fleeting romance to taste a change (I may have bad
insight, since the latter is not something one should boast about and what is
rather kept in secrecy).
A cool head
tells me each decision akin to remain-or-leave question faced by Brits in June
2016, should be preceded by a substantiated cost and benefit analysis. Whatever
is in question, I can bet neither of two solutions under consideration is
perfect, yet if you dissect them, spot advantages and drawback of both and
sensibly decide which prevail, you are more likely to make a reasonable
decision, instead of letting yourself get carried away by emotions (a fodder
for wicked populists) or herding instinct.
Unless
ruling elites finally stop being busy looking after themselves and realise what
causes masses to throw away stable and predictable schemea and dive into the
unknown at any price, humanity will be on slippery slope.
Besides, I
would not simplify the matter and point at immigration (whose meaningful
contribution is beyond all doubt) as main driver of voting in favour of Brexit.
Europeans living in the golden age (which might be now drawing a close) for
decades have not experienced war, deprivation and thanks to quite evenly
distributed fruits of long-lasting high economic growth have had their needs
and whims met. They have grown bored of peace and abundance and instead of
appreciating what they have, keep seeking some new impulses, an undefined
change, without taking heed whether it would bring more harm than good.
W dupach się poprzewracało, tyle w temacie :(
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