Sunday, 27 February 2011

'Business school' versus 'School of economics'

In practice, I have actually parted company with my school, although in theory I'll do it when I pass my Master's exam. Formally I'm still a student, and both as a student and as a would-be graduate (a diploma from the Warsaw School of Economics is a recognised 'brand') I should be interested in the strategy of WSE (PL: SGH), thus the direction in which it is drifting.

Recent years have brought significant changes in the workings of my university. Most of them have been brought about by an obligation to implement the so-called Bologna system. The biggest revolution to take place under the new system was the shift towards two-tier studies. Each student now has to no choice, but to take a three-year BA course and then, if they wish to continue their education, a two-year MA course. This has replaced the previous cycle of five-year MA studies, which left the decision to take a Bachelor's exam at students' discretion. The shift necessitated changes in the curricula. In the old system studies lasted five years, now they last three plus two years. This indeed equates to five, but the new system lacks continuity, as studies have to be split into two separate cycles and new curricula for each cycle have had to be drawn up.

Proponents of the shift (not those from Poland, but EU officials and scholars) pointed out the Bologna system would bring benefits to students. As it now transpires, its introduction was to the benefit of the overwhelming, problem-piling-up bureaucractic machinery and students are not key beneficiaries of the Bologna system. Since the introduction of the new system in 2006, when I began my studies, SGH has pressed on with two curriculum reforms. Both have come in for harsh criticism for cutting down on number of course hours allocated for "core" courses (intermediate macro- and microeconomics, advanced economics, statistics, econometrics, mathematics) and "not strictly economic" courses (sociology, economic history). The most ardent opponents of the reshaped curricula even cried out against SGH turning into a "vocational school" and retaining the word "economics" in its English name only.

In the West we have two different types of universities:
1) business schools,
2) schools of economics.
And they must not be mistaken for each other!

Let's look at the top bar at "The Economist's" main page.

This is not a coincidence that 'economics' and 'business' have separate sections.

The difference between the two is quite simple. Economics is about understanding people's and companies' behaviours on the marketplace and functioning of economies and it is a social science. Business in turn is simply about making money. The two are strongly tied-up with each other, yet the latter is just a part of the former.

This assertion leads us to another conclusion. It takes much more to educate a good economist than a good businessman. In fact a 'vocational school' would suffice to churn out graduates who would pursue their careers in 'business'. They should have all competencies and skills that would allow them to generate money for their corporations and, consequently, for themselves. A graduate of a business school can work in a consultancy firm, as accountant, auditor, product manager, at a bank, they can successfully run a company. In many of the jobs listed above they would outperform graduates of economics, but think about a business school graduate analysing financial markets, working in a central bank (remember the former president of Polish central bank, ridiculed for his diploma from an 'inferior US business school'?), as an economist at a bank or drafting a pension system reform. All those tasks require a graduate of economics, equipped not only with essential knowledge, but also taught to understand all complex phenomena that take place in the economy, taught to analyse and track causations and, above all, able to shape their own opinions independently. In the context of independence the word 'business' has to be stressed. Being in business involves money-related tie-ups and conflicts of interests that jeopardise an economist's independence. But bear in mind that only business, but also politics might pose a threat to an economist's independence.

Nevertheless, the education of an economist needs to be much broader that the one of a business school student. Courses such as sociology, economics of development, economic history, economic policy have to be run and taken by students. Being an economist requires broader horizons and open mind. The style of teaching should differ. Students of economics should be encouraged to discuss; during such discussions various opinions should clash, substantive arguments backed by examples and calculations should be traded. Analytical skills should be developed, students should be taught to discern possible impacts of some factors on other ones. A few useful rules should be instilled, such as recently quoted one that in economics you can prove a theory if you can't disprove it. And a grasp of psychology is essential when analysing the mechanics of economies and financial markets! Business students, in turn, can crack case studies, learn how to manage people, run companies, foist stuff upon customers and develop other skills requisite for making money.

I don't wish to denigrate students and graduates of business schools. They're just a different breed and are not cut out for some jobs. As a rich man I would not hesitate to take on a business graduate to run my company (but remember the currency-option botch-up from early 2009), but they would not be allowed to manage my personal finances.

And having said that I can't stress strongly enough there is no clear dividing line between business and economics. At my job I am somewhere in between; I try to make the most of my knowledge in economics, but the job has a tilt at the 'business', which means my career path might have to be reassessed...

Coming back to the issue of SGH, I'd like them to settle on 'school of economics' model. Maybe this is not what the market, ruled by money, needs most, but this what next generations will surely need. Moreover, 'business school' means taking a path of least resistance, while SGH with at least some of its excellent staff, is capable of aiming much higher. May it stay the Warsaw School of Economics, not in name only!

Sunday, 20 February 2011

The art of manipulation honed to the limits

The contract with our current Internet provider (Play Online) expires soon. Their service generally sucks. Connection speeds are comparable to those standard in Belarus and my shoddy modem stops trasferring data whenever it feels like. Wrangling with customer service of P4 is a big ordeal, so the decision to give up on them was an easy one. We don't know yet what company will our new provider be (only mobile internet is comes into play), but we have already taken steps to break up with Play Online. We send them a letter in which we noticed them we wanted to terminate the contract on its expiration date. In response we received a missive in an electronic form, scan of its print below. Watch out for the underlined words and phrases.


Now a small exercice in translation. A word which crops up four times in the missive, not accidentally, is , it doesn't have a short equivalent in English, so I decided to do it into Eglish as 'as much as'. Slightly stilted, if you have better suggestions, please let me know.

Ref. no. 2723****

Dear Sir,

We confirm the reception of your letter dated 2 February 2011 regarding the cancellation of services provided by P4 sp. z o.o.

On this occasion we are glad to thank Sir for the current cooperation and by the same token for placing trust in our company.

Especially for Sir we prepared an offer "RePlay Online Great with a discount" without a modem. As part of this bargain we offer you a discount of 10 PLN for the whole contractual period what adds up to a saving of as much as 120 PLN. The monthly allowance under this contract is as much as 5 gigabytes and the contract length is only 12 months.

There is also a possibility to prolong the contract for 18 months, under a modem plan. Under "RePlay Online for Christmas" special offer, the monthly charge for first four months will amount to mere 1 PLN. The monthly allowance under this plan is as much as 5 gigabytes. After the discount period ends, the monthly charge will be mere 45 PLN.

We will be pleased, if you get in touch with our Customer Service at the number *500 (call only from  mobiles in Play) in order to learn about the details of the offer and to place an order. The order will be effected by courrier free of charge.

If your decision is upheld, we inform that the Contract for the number +48791****** will be terminated on 9 April 2011, after the cancellation period, defined in paragraph 14 point 5 of P4 Terms of Telecommunication Services for Subscribers, expires. The current Play Online number will be transferred to Play Online pre-paid service, in which the service account may be topped up only when necessary. When the new plan is activated, Sir will receive as much as 1 gigabyte of data transfer to be used up within 30 days.

Yours sincerely,

Anna M****

Now some essential remarks.

1. Our letter was dated 26 January 2011. Why the hell did they change the date? Never mind that.

2. Especially for Sir (specjalnie dla Pana) is nothing but a barefaced lie. The same plan is offered to any customer who wishes to prolong their contract.

3. The contract set out 1 April 2011 as expiration date, so why did they discretionally prolong it by eight days? But to make up for this they gave 1 gigabyte as a farewell gift, so this can be forgiven.

Now let's get to the core of what I'm drivng at.
The word (as much as) was used four times.
The word tylko (only) was used once.
The word zaledwie (mere(ly)) was used two times.

Back in August 2007 I did my first job as telemarketer for another mobile operator. I went through some trainings and realised the importance of these seemingly unimportant words. A human beign feels a natural need to make a good deal. By using those words hard-sellers persuade their clients victims they do so, although the deal in fact is not a big bargain. Believe us, you'll pay so little and we'll give you so much. How can you turn down such a great offer?

That job was a big nuisance, but with hindsight proved to be a very valuable experience. Now I'm very sensitive to all kinds of manipulations I am exposed to and can make wiser and well-thought-out consumer decisions and I don't fall for all the twaddle I'm being said. And after all I sometimes sympathise with those poor people who sometimes call me to sell a product or a service and try to make me believe I can strike a great deal.

Thursday, 17 February 2011

"Politics, Economy, Society" two years on...

Gosh, that's been a lot of time. And on other hand it feels like it was yesterday when I returned home and on the spur of the moment set up my account on blogger and twenty minutes later clicked the 'PUBLISH POST' button for the first time.

Much has changed since then. The day I began running this blog economy was in the middle of its worst post-war crisis, I was a third-year student with unsettling career prospects and quite good command of English. Today economies of many countries are back thriving, I am a would-be graduate of SGH, have an almost dreamt-up job (it would be truly dreamt-up, if it wasn't for the owner), I have worked on my English and pledge to soldier on.

When it comes to the downsides, a significant one is posting frequency. My sluggishness made itself felt in late May 2010, when I decided to suspend blogging for two weeks to press on with exam period and job-seeking duties. Then since July 2010 I have posted only once a week. I tried to break away from this "ultra-predictable" pattern in January 2011, but now it seems it will be hard to revert to the satisfactory rate of ten posts a month. The only way out are short, up-to-the-point (no more than 20 sentences) postings over the working week and longer posts on Saturday or Sunday.

PS. Don't think I wrote it at midnight, as the footnote suggests. The post was written last Sunday and scheduled to come out today :)

Last year, short before the first anniversary I put in a visit meter. Around 17 February 2010 it read around 2,500 visits. At that time I said I would be happy to see 10,000 by the end of the second year of blogging. The meter hit 10,000 on 17 January 2011. Now I set a target of total 20,000 visits by the end of the third year, if I keep up doing what I do, it should be met. Compared to some outstanding blogs in Polish-English blogosphere, which recorded over 250,000 visits (20 east), over 1,000,000 visits (Polandian, turning three today), or can boast around 9,000 visits each month (W-wa Jeziorki), my figures look poorly, but given my motto "the last thing I need is publicity" I am glad to have small audience who appreciate my job. After all it could not be any other, as the language barrier takes its toll on the blog.

At the end I would only like to thank all commentators, your contributions add much value to this blog and other blog-keepers and site-owners whose pages link to "Politics, Economy, Society".

Saturday, 12 February 2011

The ship that weathered the storm is sinking?

No longer than a month ago I extolled Polish economy for its resilience in the context of the first interest rate hike in the current cycle of monetary tightening, but over the course of last two week I mulled over the issue, took it apart and now I feel like taking back what I wrote then, although I cannot deny I did believe what I wrote was true and reflected my opinions.

What prompted my recent change of heart was a market analysis. I observed the performance of Warsaw Stock Exchange blee chip index (WIG20) and compared it with performance of other major indices (German DAX, US S&P 500, Japaness Nikkei 225). All the foreign indices this year hit their many months' highs repeatedly, whereas Polish WIG20 barely climbed to 2,809 points, peaked there and retreated. Polish stock market's relative performance has been very poor in the last weeks and this seems to be a distrurbing signal.

Stock market performance is one of Leading Economic Indicators, what in simple words means its changes herald changes in the whole economy. It has to be said stock market performance is not unfailing and if "Wall Street predicted nine out of five recessions after WWII", signals it sends might be misleading. But if we look at recent happenings in a broader context, Warsaw Stock Exchange does not have to be wrong this time.

Please note that performance of stock market is correlated not with GDP but with the pace of GDP growth. Economy may contract, but if the contraction is not as deep than in the previous quarter, stock prices should rise. This rule works also the other way round - if economy grows, but not as fast as earlier, stock prices should decline. To be precise, stock market should precede real economy by one or two quarters, although in the recent crisis there was no lag (rebound in 1Q2009 and peak in 3Q2007).

Let's have a look at some facts.

1. A lion's share of the turnover on the Warsaw stock market is generated by foreign investors and speculators. They generally buy the most liquid stocks and therefore their interest focuses on securities that make up the WIG20. Their decisions are generally based on their perceptions of prospects of Polish economy. Buying stocks is actually about buying future, as all present information are already incleded in a price. So if speculators and investors are optimistic about Poland, they buy Polish stocks; when they turn pesimistic, they dispose of Polish securities. If their perception of Poland worsens, it is not because they have it in for Polish stocks, but because something might be amiss with Poland. What is happening now is not a reprise of speculative sell-off of Polish currency and assets from early 2009, when market sentiment was overtly negative, now it has only fallen back.

2. Why? One reason are the proposed changes in the pension system. Regardless of what I think of it (I am in two minds about it, I will try to present a subjective evaluation of those changes before they take effect), the motives behind the government's decision to transfer a part of pension contribution from private-run pension funds to state-run pay-as-you-go social security system are clear. The government did not concede private pension funds are too expensive and too ineffective (as they in fact are!) are did not wish to save poor citizen's pensions from being squandered by greedy fund managers. Polish state gripped that money to curb the increase of outright public debt and swept the problem of its obligations towards future pensioners under the carpet. It does not mean I fully disagree with their decision, but this time a drowing man was desperately trying to catch a straw. The move also reflects upon the pitiful state of Polish public finances and interminable shortage of money in the system, which results from years of mismanagement.

3. What could have scared the investors and speculators away? If the government seizes the money, situation in Poland must be quite bad. Private sector fares well, but if things keep getting worse it will have to bear more and more burdens and so the consumers will. Higher taxes will impinge on lower investments and consumption and thus will hamper GDP growth...

4. Another factor is connected directly with mechanics of capital markets. Pension funds every months have bought stock on the market to their portfolios. After the reform, if they get less money, they will buy fewer stocks, what consequently will weaken the demand side on the market. Without demand from pension funds rates of return on the market will be lower. This assumption could have deterred some market participants.

5. Many economists say the best year in the current business cycle will be 2011. Growth will be stimulated mainly by investments, in a large part financed from EU funds and aimed at EURO 2012 preparation. Poland has reached its limits as a free-rider - it fared well during the crisis, but the current pace of growth is unsustainable without structural reforms.

6. Rising interest rates also might negatively affect the economy, but with inflation as the overriding target, we have no choice, but to accept monetary tightening.

7. Appreciating zloty may harm our exports and contribute to the slowdown in pace of GDP growth. If interest rates disparity increases (quite probably, as in the Eurozone and in the USA interest rates are said to be kept near-zero to sustain the recovery), carry traders will do their job and no central bank interventions will help. Only a shift in market sentiment towards Poland can bring Polish exporters relief.

Neverthelss Polish GDP should be on the rise for the next three years, if only nothing unexpected happens, but we should be prepared that the growth will be sluggish (2% - 3% p.a.) rather than robust. Warsaw stock market might be already discounting these information. In turn German economy proves its perfection - our Western neighbours have turned around their public finances and they proved again their economy stayed competitive. Over the last decades competitiveness was the crucial performance driver. Here we can take leaf out of German's book. On the other hand I would not wish Poland to follow the example of the USA. Their stock market is soaring just becuase the US central bank is carrying out quanitative easing to buoy up US economy, what in simple words means guys from FED are printing money, economy still is in the doldrums and speculators borrow money at 0.25% and drive prices of equities and commodities up.

Paradoxically, even if Poland underperforms in comparison to other countries in the coming years, it may give it a soft landing. Other economies, affected by asset price bubbles (if nothing changes in terms of regulations and monetary policy they are bound to inflate, but not in Poland, Polish economy will suffer from rising food, petrol and gas prices) will go through another, even more severe financial downturn and Poland, if run wisely, might be again the only green country on the economic map of Europe.

Saturday, 5 February 2011

Transition

Hard to put it into words what I feel in one of turning points of my life. I suppose I would even have problems defining my emotions, and, disturbingly, they are rather sparse, though they should not.

On Wednesdat I took my last exam at SGH, to be precise this was the penultimate exam, since I still have to take my Master's exam, due... probably in late spring, bereaucracy permitting. My last two exams taken this week were both rough rides, however I hope for the best and contend that I will have gone through my studies without a single re-sit.

On Monday I start my first permanent job (formally I will have a three-month probationary period and then, if both parties agree, will it be a permanent job). This does not actually mean delving into a totally different world. I have had two encounters with the corporate world before and I cannot confess to feel anything like a "stage-fright", but I do feel a bit self-concious though.

The transition might be the right moment for some summaries. To put it possibly briefly, I have drawn up two lists of things I will miss and I will not miss after parting with SGH.

I WILL MISS:

1. Day-to-day contact with peers. Truth be told my colleagues will be a bit or much older than me. From my past experience I know I can get along with older colleagues very well, but they are a sort of a different breed, they have different problems, pastime activities, interests, priorities in life, usually they have a different point of view because they have their own families and obligations it entails.

2. Clever, awe-inspiring lecturers, just to name a few:
dr Bogusław Czarny, who taught me basic micro- and macroeconomics, inspired to think independently, form my own opinions and who stressed the importance of the overriding rule in economics, that an assertion is true when it cannot be disproved, not when it can be proved,
prof. Marek Garbicz, for his breathtaking lectures, sense of humour and open mind,
prof. Maria Podgórska, for her patience, consistency and the fact she did not confine just to teach econometrics and mathematics in finance and insurance, but also wanted to instil in us integrity and made us aware how important in life it was,
mgr Sławomira Rajkowska, my best German teacher ever, unfortunately she stood in for our lecturer just for one term, but the progress I made (without much effort) was unbelievable. Had my Deutsch been that good today...
mgr Aneta Piwko, my best English teacher ever. If all teachers had such excellent command of English, passion and drive to teach, Germans would not stack up against Poles in terms of English skills.
prof. Sławiński... Here words are very unnecessary. Who experienced the pleasure of attending his lectures knows what I mean. The rest may only regret.
dr Piotr Mielus, the supervisor of my MA thesis and an outstanding practitioner.

3. Casual clothes. From next week will fit for weekends, holidays and cult dress-down Fridays. I actually like formal outfits so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt.

4. Commuting in non-peak hours. Lovely it was to get from or to Warsaw within fifty minutes in the middle of the day or in the evening when streets were already unclogged. My new recipe for avoiding traffic jams will be trains, so the journey between home and the office should take around an hour.

5. Job fairs, event, meeting famous people who visited SGH and other events. First two and a half years abounded in such events. Later the crisis came, companies cut their promotion budgets and I ran out of disposable pens.

6. Privileges. Not that soon. I will pick up my diploma some three months after the final MA exam, so I until then will I make the most of my ticket concession and other measurable benefits of being a student. The new world will compensate me for this by giving perks.

7. Unfettered speculation on stock exchange. From now I will not be able to do a real-time trading plus I will have several trading restrictions. This does not mean I will pull back from the stock market at all; the speculator will become a mid-term investor.

I WILL NOT MISS:

1. The overwhelming mess, bad communication between authorities and students and general disinformation.

2. Ignorance and laziness of lecturers. I do not even wish to comment. The list of admired lecturers was short. The list of big let-downs from the whole course of my studies would be much longer...

3. Workings of the student office (dziekanat), its surly personnel, quiant decisions (deleting completed courses from track record of studies, informing me about my Bachelor's exam the day before in the evening)...

4. To boot bad organisation, doing everything at eleventh hour...

5. Appaling use of English, which was ridiculed on this blog repeatedly.

6. Broken down central heating when outside it was -15C or unopenable windows and lack of curtains or blinds when outside temperature hit +30C

7. Lectures at 19:00 for day-time students (prevalent, alas).

Immersing in the corporate world will not only mean I will be self-supporting, but also will bring new challenges and real learning opportunities. In the coming months I expect to work harder and learn more than within four and a half years of my studies.

Hitherto I have not observed any sympthoms of depresja magisterska, (graduates afflicted with this malady are down in the dumps because the carefree period of studies is drawing to a close and they are in for forty years of work), but the worst might be still to come.

The last thing I can mention is the higher education system reform passed yesterday by the lower house of the Polish parliament. The new law is intended to curb two pathologies that plague Polish universities. Firstly, it imposes limits on number of jobs scholars can take. Secondly, it introduces tuition fees for students who take their second studies. From what I have observed, both steps will do Polish universities only good. At least in this respect the current government can be credited with a good job.

Monday, 31 January 2011

Incongruity - a short story

Once there way a boy. He lived with his parents and two years older sister in a new flat to which the family had moved a few month earlier. The middle school the boy attended has topped the rankings for five years in a row, so it was decided that the boy would still attend it. The distance between the new flat and the school (five kilometres) necessitated every day commutes. However, they were not a nuisance, as the journey by bus lasted mere eight minutes, buses in the morning ran every five minutes and the bus stop was a stone's throw from the block where the family lived.

One winter morning when the temperature was hovering around zero, the boy and his sister were about to leave for school. The sister began going out with her first boyfriend just a few weeks ago and since then has much more cared about her appearance. Her boyfriend had promised to take her out after classes and she wanted to look really splendid. She occupied the only bathroom for over a quarter putting on make-up on her face. The boy did not want to come late to school, so he knocked at the bathroom door and asked his sister if she could let him in, because he wanted to a morning toiletry and go away. She was very busy tweaking with her eyelashes so she told her brother to get lost and wait his turn. After a few minutes she left the bathroom, the boy did what he had to go, put on his winter coat, shoes and set off towards the bus stop.

He knew he still stood a chance of catching the 7:43 service, so he marched towards the stop very briskly. When he was just twenty metres away, he saw his bus pulling up. He ran to the bus stop at full pelt to get into the vehicle. Unfortunately, the driver did not show sympathy for the hurrying boy and shut the door just before his face. The boy had to choice but to wait for the next bus, due in five minutes. The wind was gusty that morning, so, understandably, he decided to wait in a bus shelter.

A nineteen-year-old spaced-out student was returning home from a post-exam-period party in his also nineteen-year-old BMW (abbr. Burak Ma Wózek - Bumpkin has a cart). As he was approaching the bus lay-by it seemed to him another driver cut in on him. To avoid rear-ending the car, which was still on the other lane, he swerved swiftly. The car went into a skid in the icy road. Its driver, scared stiff, instead of skimming on the brakes pushed the accelerator pedal. The car did around 100 kmph when it smashed into the bus shelter. The boy had to chance to survive. He died at the scene.

Who should be held culpable for the boy's death?
Answer 1: His fastidious sister who had to finish doing her make-up?
Answer 2: The fastidious bus driver, who closed the door?

Saturday, 29 January 2011

Truth will out?

This is the second post in row, which waited for some time on my dashboard before being published at last. Something must be amiss with my blogging if I keep editing out some excepts, delete whole paragraphs, rewrite many sentences, wonder whether thoughts I wish to share with you are unsuitable or too controversial.

What you see below is an auto-censored, "soft" version of my sad reflections after a wake I attended yesterday.

Normally my parents and I refuse to take part in such receptions, because there is nothing to celebrate and the boring family gathering ends up with drinking to the deceased's health or people begin to chat joyfully and the atmosphere gets party-like. This time as the deceased had been one of our closer relatives, it would have been simply impolite to turn down the invitation.

The wake was not extraordinary, apart from the presence of a prominent Polish politician, who is a good friend of the deceased's son. All proceeded normally until the moment sons of the deceased delivered a speech.

The old Latin tenet that you should speak highly of the dead or not speak at all, is a good rule and I am all for obeying it. The man who we farewelled yesterday had been a good man. He had loved his wife, sons and grandchildren, he had been nice and helpful to people around, he used to be a dab hand around the house - he could fix a broken down TV, a leaking tap, and, as long as he had been up to it, he had repaired his old Polonez. All this could be said about him and indeed was said. He also had some typical Polish shortcomings; in line with the Latin rule, we will pass over them. However, I still do not understand why he was credited with writing poems, reinterpreting some excerpts of the Bible into Polish patriotic psalms and writing furtively a book about history of Poland from its baptism in 966 to 1939. The big dose of patriotism was said to had been instilled in him by his father, who had died in 1943, when the deceased was 14.

I was totally unaware of his great attainments. He had only completed primary school, after WWII he did not continue his education. All I heard was so implausible that first my jaw dropped open and then I had to bite my tongue just not to burst out laughing. Meanwhile my father at first breathed loudly (what always means he gets the hump) and then hissed. Actually no one, including his own sister, knew anything about his alleged achievements. I cannot disprove the existence of these poems or psalms. Maybe he had had some talents he had kept secret (just as my family do not know about the existence of that blog), if so, I can be proud of him. During his speech, the deceased's son waved a piece of paper containing one hand-written poem. The deceased's sister, a very straightforward person, who incidentally always does or says something before she thinks, immediately grabbed the piece of paper and adjudicated it not to be her brother's handwriting. The counter-argument was that she wore the wrong glasses..

The question how the deceased's father, who until his last days he had been a zealous communist, could he have instilled patriotism in his son leaves in deep bemusement. After WWI his father was, I am shamed to admit it, one of those who wanted Poland to be incorporated into the Soviet Russia... About such things people do not talk, such black sheep are kept as skeletons in cupboards, and their disgraceful deeds sink into oblivion. But what is the point in rewriting the family history? Why? Who needs those lies? The politician who came for a free blowout in an expensive restaurant?

The same happened many years after my maternal grandmother's death. During Warsaw uprising she had spent the whole August and September 1944 hidden in basements and sewers, scared stiff, then with other inhabitans of Warsaw driven out to temporary camp in Pruszkow, she managed to run away and settled down in the countryside. A few years ago my some members of my mother's family began to tell my mother my that grandmother had been a messenger in Warsaw Uprising and saved lives of many children. My grandmother used to talk to my mother about the cruelty of the uprising and described her two-month ordeal in details and openly had admitted she had been too afraid to leave underground shelters and fight. Why should the family history be rewritten?

A similar story happened during the funeral of my mother's friend. Later today my mother recalled the event when the deceased's husband had given a short speech about his late wife. My mother said she had thought he had spoken about someone else, not the woman she had known for thirty five years.

If something is acceptable and praised on a national level, why cannot we do it at home?

Some rules, such as the one cited at the beginning are a foundation of our civilisation, but is it a reason to distort biographies of people who have died, to beautify their image post mortem? The same happens to the people who are still alive. Jadwiga Kaczyńska was many times said to have fought in Warsaw Uprising, when in fact at that time she had been a nurse in Starachowice. In turn, several people attempted to deny that Henryka Krzywonos stopped the tram in Gdańsk in 1980 and thus launched a strike of public service vehicle drivers, after she slated Jarosław Kaczyński for his missteps.

Also late president Lech Kaczynski, ridiculed and deprecated when in office, is glorified after his death. In the near future the biggest test for Poles in that respect will be the death of general Wojciech Jaruzelski, now aged 87. He still remains a very controversial figure. A political clash for how he goes down in history will be inevitable then...

Monday, 24 January 2011

Questions

For the last few days my attention has been gripped by the issue of Smolensk air crash. For months I had been of the opinion that the issue is not the most important problem and we should focus on things other than dwelling on the circumstances of the accident. But since 12 January when MAK unveiled its report, thoughts on the disaster have assault me almost all the time, from the first seconds after I wake up in the morning, till the last seconds before I fall asleep. Given that I have exam period (seven down, two to go) and dozens of other things to handle, recurring thoughts on the disaster begin to pose a serious threat to my sanity. For this reason I made the decision to withdraw from any political postings and comments on other blogs (including Posłuchaj, to do Ciebie). My resolution will come into force on 7 February, the day I return to work, and sooner or later will be broken, but not before I am sure reviving the tetchy affairs would not bring me into losing my mind. There are many other topics worth raising here, many other discussions and disputes to be held, the range of subject matters will shrink a bit, hopefully with the benefit for the readers.

I had several concepts of this post, one partly developed and given up was to dedicate it to my fellow blogger, Toyah, just like I did over half a year ago. Having changed my mind several I finally settled on hitting you with a list of questions (order is totally random, some of them overlap one another) that keep nagging me... I do not hold out much hopes that you know answer to most of them, but maybe taking it off my my chest will help me sleep restfully tonight...

1. Am I the only one who holds the view that politicians of PiS do not want to find out the truth about the disaster, but they have had their own "truth", i.e. the PO-led government and Russians are the only guilty of that crash and they pick out the facts that match their concept? (If you happen to spot any lies or misrepresentations in GW's article, do let me know about it and substantiate where they depart from the truth)

2. Do politicians of PiS realise what they do actually realise what they do actually mirrors Russian stance on the investigation results, stemming directly from Soviet mentality, in line with which "all our faults must be withheld and others' fault must be highlighted"?

3. Is it in the vested interest of our country to conceal our faults, irregularities and infractions of rules?

4. Does telling openly about errors made by our pilots during the flight translate into "sullying their honour" (giving to the public the information about level of alcohol in the blood of one the passengers was indeed out of place)?

5. Why passengers could enter the pilots' cabin, if such practices were forbidden?

6. Will the pilot of Jak-40 who landed there despite being ordered by air traffic controllers at 09:14:41 to do a go-around and fly off and will he be held accountable of putting lives of tens of people at risk?

7. Why deputies of PiS call pilots, who attempted to touch down the plane, despite being told at 09:55:37 the landing was impossible due to bad weather conditions, heroes?

8. Why were pilots of Tu-154 who in August 2008 had followed all safety procedures and did their utmost duty, i.e. ensured the safety of their passengers were called "cowards"?

9. Why Mr Karski did not have the courage to apologise for his misdeed and did not concede he had been wrong?

10. How the Georgian incident and, above all, the subsequent litigation could affect decisions taken by pilots during the fateful flight?

11. Why politicians (and journalists, both groups recently boast about in-depth knowledge in air accidents), not aviation experts, adjudicate on the causes of the crash? Do we follow example of Russia, where such inquests are politicised?

12.Will Polish independent aviation experts, who have torn a strip off Polish crew, become enemies of PiS, or have they already become, if M(r)s Kempa suggested special services should handle them? (a foretaste of what dissenters may face in IV RP)

13. Is it true captain Protasiuk declined to take off from Okęcie, because he had not received a weather forecast for Smolensk or because the weather report he had received told landing was impossible and why somebody convinced or ordered him to take off?

14. Why did Poles who organised the visits insisted on landing in Smolensk, if they knew the airport there was dilipidated and had been closed in October 2009. why did not they choose another airport and did not provide other means of transport to get to Katyn?

15. Why Russians did not try harder to dissuade Polish pilots from landing or why did they not close the airport?

16. Why did Russian air traffic controllers did not tell Polish pilots they had problems with their tawdry equipment?

17. Why was the first speech delivered by the prime minister Tusk on 19 January so aggressive?

18. Why politicians of PiS tried to hoot down deputies of PO when they were asking questions?

19. Why deputy speaker of the lower house, Mr Niesiołowski acted the fool (or a jack-in-office) during the debate?

20. Why Mr Macierewicz told, in response to the inqiury about his visit to the United States he had met the most important congressman, Peter King, who he had wanted to meet, if it did not happen?

21. Why Mr Macierewicz called the United States "our biggest ally", if they do not give a shit about Poland and their president paid his respects to Lech Kaczynski by playing golf during his funeral?

22. On what legal basis Mrs Fotyga and Mr Macierewicz were authorised to represent Poland in the USA on what legal basis could anyone help them establish an international committee to investigate the causes of Smolensk air crash?

23. On the basis of what legal document could Poland not hand over the inquiry to Russians and was that document really applicable in that situation?

24. Do PiS and their apologists try intently to reshape the image of the late president and make Poles believe he was an outstanding statesman, when in fact, despite being a noble and honest man, he simply did not have making of a head of state and his presidency was generally clumsy and mediocre?

25. Are PiS and their followers trying to paint the picture of downfall of Poland, a falling apart country, run by servants of Russians, traitors, Heaven knows who else, just to justify radical steps they will take if they win the election in October 2011 and set out to crack down on their enemies?

And finally, the most important question.
If Mr Protasiuk had refused to take off and the plane had not taken off with any other pilots in the cockpit, or if pilots had made the decision to land somewhere else or even return to Warsaw without trying to touch down, or if Russian authorities had closed the airport in Smolensk, how would Lech Kaczyński and politicians of PiS have reacted?

There is just one question I can answer. Jarosław Kaczyński blames the Polish government because visits of his brother and Mr Tusk were separated. Donald Tusk could not bring Lech Kaczyński along on 7 April to Katyn because the late president did not receive an official invitation from Russians, which is required by diplomatic protocol (Jarosław Kaczyński and his followers are proud to be ignorant of the rules it sets out). Donald Tusk did not fly to Katyn on 10 April because he was not invited by president Lech Kaczynski. Finally, if president and prime minister had been on board of the same plane, it would have been an appalling violation of safety procedures. And after all we all know that Russians are coarse and simply did not wish to see the man who had openly displayed his hostility towards Russia. And their decision was quite probably provoked by late president's brother...

To break the language barrier I hereby waive the rule of blogging which tells to reply to a post in a language in which it is written. If you want to have your say and do not feel up to the task in English, do it in Polish, I will appreciate it anyway.

Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Polish economy proves its resilience

A long expected move has just been made. After nineteen months of standing at 3.50% benchmark interest rate of Polish Central Bank was raised by 25 basis points. The decision taken by Monetary Policy Council was anticipated by financial markets.

Thus Poland joined the group of countries where monetary tightening has got under way. The prudent step confirms Polish economy is back on the growth track and in the middle term inflation poses a bigger threat to macroeconomic stability than low pace of GDP growth. Quite probably this year we will witness three interest rate hikes, each by 25 basis points, so at the end of the year the benchmark rate will reach 4.50%. This series of gentle increases will not hamper economic growth, but will ensure price stability (conducive and indispensable to sustain long-term growth) and will head off the risk of overheating the economy. In the long term I expect Polish central bank to focus mainly on inflation data; pace of economic growth will recede into background.

Markets have already discounted the hike. FRA quotations had indicated one hike in 2010, so according to the markets, the decision was belated. Valuations of bond funds and money market funds, both sensitive to interest rate movements (correlation is negative) were down in the recent weeks (bond funds), or levelled off (money market funds). What was felt by participants of "safe" investment funds will soon affect borrowers who have taken out variable-rate loans (that applies to mortgage loans denominated in PLN as well). Mortgage borrowers whose debts are denominated in foreign currencies can expect, holding everything else unchanged, slightly lower installments, as rising rates should cause zloty to appreciate. Interests paid by the banks for time deposits and saving accounts will pick up, but here you ought to expect a considerable lag - banks are not hard up for cash and will not pay over the odds for your savings.

Today WIG20, the main index of Warsaw Stock Exchange hit its many months' high and climbed to levels last seen in summer 2008 (and subsequently plummeted). In the short term I expect stock prices to go up, in the mid-term a correction by round about 10% would be quite natural, my target for the end of the year is 3,200 points (WIG 20). I will look back on these forecasts at the end of the year, to check how accurate they were.

In the meantime I took a glance at comment threads following the news items informing about the hike. Commentators either fulminate against prime minister Tusk and the ruling Platforma Obywatelska (as if they were responsible for the move) or blame conspiracy of foreing banks, all in league to fleece poor Poles... Thoughtless comments, which by the way are indispensable part of the Internet (educated people have little time to comment), remind me that Poles' grasp of mechanics of economics still needs to be worked on...

Monday, 17 January 2011

Sunday trip to Piaseczno and back

Exam period report: four down, five to go...

By the way - do you know today we have Blue Monday and I am suspiciously joyful...

So as I'm stuck in the middle of my last exam period, it might be a good idea to write something concise, approachable and upload a lot of pictures to entartain my readers (and make the post appear longer while in fact it's short).

Last Sunday I decided to make the most of sunshine (for next eight days Poland's capital suffered from deficiency of sunlight) and my new two-in-one piece of plastic (travelcard and debit card in one, issued by Citi Handlowy) with suburban ticket encoded on it and...

14:02, I approach the train station in Nowa Iwiczna. According to my estimations I should have waited for the semi-fast Radom-bound train for a few minutes. In reality, the train was running earlier and I had to run up to the platform. Instead of snapping the engine hauling three new carriages I snapped the train pulling up and the window pane leant against the shelter (above). Needless to say shelters and benches at the station are vandalised soon after the new ones are put in after a previous act of thoughtless vandalism.

Above and left: now I need some hints how to take sharp photos from a train moving at a quite high speed. I have to say travelling in double-deckers is fast and comfortable. Above: a queue of cars waiting before gates on railway crossing in Stara Iwiczna (quite busy road). Left: it's not the coal line, but a stationary coal train on a siding in Piaseczno.

To the left, another queue of cars, this time it's the railway crossing on ul. Jana Pawła II in Piaseczno. Traffic on that street is rather sparse, yet the number of cars queuing up is staggeringly high. Worth mentioning that gates on railway crossings in Poland go down long before a train comes.

Right: just five minutes after boarding the train in NI, I alighted in Piaseczno. There, before the train pulled out from the station, I managed to capture it from its splendid, grimy rear. Display at the top of last carriage shows the train's destinantion. It was the third day of thaw, then in overdrive.

Right: the station in Piaseczno, lit by mid-afternoon January sun. The building has long been due to revitalisation, now it's due in... in the future, I suppose. Mayors and councillors come and go and the station remains run-down...

Left: the same building of the station, snapped from the footpath running over the tracks. Don't expect facilities such as waiting room, toilet or ticket office. Smacks of provincial Poland - watch out for the bicycle chained to a banister or heartfelt plea of love to some Angelika...

Right: derelict sidings west to the station. I remember from early childhood those tracks have been out of use back in mid-1990s. I am baffled by the fact no one has yet ripped them. Rails and bolts could be sold for scrap and slippers could be used as input to one of incenerators, so popular in the countryside... But note that many sidings running parallel to the main line, east of it, are still in use.

Left: the platform of Piaseczno station, as dilipidated as the building of the station, yet capable of serving its purpose. On Sunday afternoon served also as a hang-out for local track-suit afficionados.

Left: looking north from the footpath, tracks run towards Warsaw and converge in the distance. Visibility on 9 January wasn't particularly good, hence a gentle mist on the horizon.

At the station I peeked at the timetable to learn a Warsaw-bound train would arrive in three minutes. After ten minutes of hanging around there to no avail I set off to the centre of Piaseczno, then caught 709 bus to Warsaw and got off the vehicle just before the border of the capital. Right: Piaseczno, ul. Raszyńska. The dismal aftermath of water freezing in crevices between the proper tarmack and new patches. When temperatures fluctuate around 0C water freezes and unfreezes and patches are blown up. Last Friday the street was patched up, but the problem remains unresolved. Come another thaw and here we go again!

Both gmina Piaseczno and gmina Lesznowola are prosperous, but Piaseczno is incredibly badly-run, especially in comparison to reasonably well-run Lesznowola. As you cross the border between them the street is properly tarmacked (no holes at all), pavement is not crooked, but apart from this the picture is not rose-coloured. Litter scatterred around the rubbish bin, butts lying in dirty snow, box belonging to Telekompromitacja Polska S.A. mangled after a car accident, crooked fence put by owners of a private nursery school...

Right: heading back home. I wonder if the place is really as dull as it sometimes seems to be. My neighbourhood is surely not the worst sort of suburbia, nevertheless, it still lacks a spirit...