A hero or a traitor?

Gripping, witty, superbly-shot and adroitly-played is “Jack Strong”, political thriller directed by Władysław Pasikowski, which went to the silver screen on 7 Febraury 2014 and within first few days was watched by over half a million cinema-visitors. In terms of form, despite not being the ultimate masterpiece, undoubtedly it could be ranked no lower than most praised Hollywood thrillers. When it comes to substance, opinions are divided, as the film is a biography of colonel Ryszard Kuklinski, one of the most controversial public figures in the history of post-war Poland.

Mr Kuklinski was one of the most prominent officers of the Polish People’s Army. His career developed swiftly since his conscription to army just after World War 2. After several subsequent promotions, he became one of the youngest executive officers in the commandership of the Poland’s military forces and earned himself impeccable credentials of an ardent commie with comrades from Warsaw Pact’s commandership. He participated in preparations for “fraternal aid” in Czechoslovakia in 1968. Since 1972 (or according to some sources since 1967/68 when he served in Vietnam as a member of ICC) he collaborated with CIA as a spy and delivered the U.S. intelligence thousands of pages of documents relating to Warsaw Pact’s and Poland’s defence systems and strategic plans, including plausible nuclear war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Along with his family he defected to the United States, evacuated by the American intelligence in November 1981.

The film is claimed to be “based on facts”. From the first scenes, when death sentence on Oleg Pienkowski is executed by throwing the spy into the furnace (in fact the was killed customarily, by being shot at the back of his head and the “burning alive” execution is admitted to have been a myth), to the last scenes in which one of Mr Kuklinski’s sons dies in a traffic accident, being pushed off the road by a huge truck (in fact he was run down several times by an SUV with no number plates in university campus), the film departs from facts or is very likely to include overt fiction. Who can reliably confirm Brzehnev, after a phone call from Jimmy Carter, instructs marshal Kulikov to desist from plans of invading Western Europe? At best in many moments the film is based on conjectures or one-person assertions, taken for granted without third-party verification.

As Adam Krzeminski rightly points out in the recent issue of Polityka, the film is intended to leave no room for doubts or moral reflections. Mr Kuklinski’s treason (objectively judging, no matter what you thought of communist Poland’s degree of its dependence on the Soviet Union, he breached the military oath, sworn in 1947, in which subjugation to the Soviet Union was not mentioned) is fully justified and is worshipped. Actually the purpose of the film is to glorify the controversial person of the colonel and although the film will not make those who think he is a traitor change their mind, but for those who know little about the most famous NATO’s spy in communist Poland, the one-sided film will help shape a positive opinion about Mr Kuklinski.

Those who accuse Mr Kuklinski of treason claim no matter how lame the Polish country was at that time, duty of loyalty was still owed to it. In the film, Mr Kuklinski (the entire plot is a retrospect to his interrogation by Polish prosecutors in Washington in 1997) in an interview excuses himself by saying all the documents he had passed on to Americans pertained to Warsaw Pact and not Poland, hence he betrayed the Warsaw Pact, not Poland. It only takes to watch the film until the end to find out this excuse was untrue – information on preparations to martial law in Poland were internal documents of Polish army and internal office, the very martial law was not a Warsaw Pact operation.

Apart from worlds-apart view’s on Mr Kuklinski’s collaboration with the CIA, there are plenty of understatements, myths and unanswered questions regarding the biography and doings of Mr Kuklinski. Some of them are listed below. Please note facts are separated from my private opinions and other people’s opinions and asked questions mean what they mean in plain English, no need to read between the lines, nor scratch beneath the surface.

1. If Mr Kuklinski knew in advance on the planned imposition of the martial law in Poland, why did not he, nor the US intelligence let the Solidarity movement know about it, to let the dissidents better prepare for the clampdown?

2. Mr Kuklinski was said to live beyond his means long before he began spying for CIA. He earned a lot in Vietnam, but declared to have spent it for a Western car. His wealth was suspicious for his fellow army officers of similar rank, whose financial status was incomparably lower. The unclear source of Mr Kuklinski’s wealth is also mentioned in the film. But how come no one in Polish army’s commandership bothered to look into colonel lavish lifestyle, when according to procedures all persons having access to confidential information should have been closely screened out?

3. For Soviet comrades, Poland was just a satellite country, an inferior republic. Moreover, the Soviet empire of evil and relationships between its chief functionaries were founded on anything, but trust. Bearing this in mind, is it conceivable that Mr Kuklinski, an officer from the most subversive country in the Warsaw pact, could have been granted access to most confidential documents of the Soviet army, or mostly to those related to Poland?

4. During the almost 10-year espionage, Mr Kuklinski was caught red-handed photographing secret documents (this scene is shown in the film), but he got away with it, the report on the dubious situation somehow vanished into the air. In 1981 (also underlined in the film) it was pretty clear there was an American spy in the commandership of the Polish army and all evidence tipped at Mr Kuklinski. At some moment it became clear for everyone he was a traitor and no one bothered to take steps detain him. Even after his defection no one’s head rolled. Lack of reaction among the Poland’s highest-ranked army officers appears daunting.

I deliberately refrain from asking explicitly whether Mr Kuklinski was a double agent, i.e. whether he also spied for Soviets. Given abundance of arguments supporting such hypothesis, coming also from right-wing oriented, or even IPN-affiliated historians, it should not be disregarded. More on such possibility in a series of articles from “Przegląd” weekly here (part 1, part 2, part 3). I do not mind the leftist orientation of the magazine; the articles are informative, often precisely cite sources of information, ascribe statements to specific persons, although I would prefer to see it with more precise footnotes and extensive bibliography at the end, so that a reader could double-check accuracy of ample information these excerpts convey.

Poland sometimes looms as a peculiar country. Is there any other nation in the world that would hail a foreign country’s spy a national hero, as the Polish parliament resolved last Friday? I would hazard a guess in all jurisdiction espionage is a serious crime, subject to severe punishment. In 1984 Mr Kuklinski was in absentia sentenced to death, upon regaining independence the sentence was converted into 25 years of imprisonment, then, in 1997 he was vindicated. Was not it enough?

The squabble between right-wing deputies and their left-wing opponents which took place on Friday in the parliament reflects one of divide lines in the Polish society, not only concerning the assessment of colonel Kuklinski’s deeds, but also the attitude towards what Poland was between 1945 and 1989. Some claim in that period Poland was a Soviet Republic, others argue this was a dependent, lame country, being a part of the Soviet bloc, but still it was Poland, with all implications, including duty of loyalty and respect to one’s country. Stance towards political status of Poland between 1945-1989 is thus a starting point for assessment of Mr Kuklinski’s deeds.

Mr Kuklinski was a hero, but not Poland’s hero. He was instrumental for NATO in gaining the edge over Warsaw Pact and reinforced NATO’s position in case of military conflict between the two blocs and enfeebled Poland by revealing plans of its defence systems.

For me it is clear, unlike many assert, he did not act to the benefit of Poland. During the cold war, United States, nor NATO were not Poland’s allies. Poland for NATO was a part of its biggest enemy, the Warsaw Pact. If a military conflict had come to a pass, Poland would have been only worse-off on account of Mr Kuklinski’s espionage, because NATO strategist would have been better able to prepare plans of attacking and destroying Poland. If his activity could have had contributed to freeing Poland up from the Soviet dominance, I would concede there would be room for debate, but no Western country would have lifted its little finger to liberate Poland from the Soviet empire.

Giving credence to the tall story presented in the film that once Soviet comrades were informed NATO had learnt of Soviet’s blueprints to combative warfare, they immediately got scared and abandoned their plans is naïve. Putting down to Mr Kuklinski changing the course of world’s history is out of place. One man is not capable of doing so, mostly a spy from a hostile military bloc, who for CIA surely was not an implicitly trusted collaborator (as a contact from the hostile bloc he must have been handled with reserve)… Forces driving events in international politics are more complex and have many architects

Nevertheless, if you have not watched Jack Strong yet, I recommend you do so, for the pleasure of watching a decent political thriller.

Politics, Economy, Society – five years on

Having soldiered on as a blogger for half of a decade (fifth anniversary officially falls tomorrow), a tenure few can boast about accomplishing, I can dub myself an unfaltering blogger (blowing my own trumpet). Instead of posting some tedious musings on hardships and sacrifices in blogging, I decided to review all my posts tagged ‘predictions’ and ‘forecast’, to check, with hindsight, their accuracy. As the list below demonstrates, I was an active forecaster during first two years of blogging and then perked up in last quarter of 2013.

18 March 2009 – mentions forecasts of GDP growth in 1Q2009 of 0.5% y/y and encouragement to speculate against the Polish currency. In fact the Polish economy expanded by 0.8% and PLN hit its many years’ trough one month earlier.

25 March 2009 – makes a reference to BNP Paribas forecast of EUR/PLN conceivable reaching 5.40. It has not climbed to even 5.00 thereafter…

13 April 2009 – a bearish post, completely wide of the mark. My outlooks of stock market reverting to a downward trend vehemently have not fulfilled. 2009 witnessed one of the most vigorous bull markets in the history, largely driven by the scale of precedent decline (what goes down must come up) and flood of cheap money, pumped in by central banks.

24 April 2009 – IMF’s prophecies of doom have also not come to a pass, neither in 2009, nor later in 2012 or 2013… The Polish economy has not contracted in any single quarter.

4 August 2009 – again I expressed a bearish stance on the stock market, hoping for a correction allowing me buy stocks at cheaper price. In subsequent months stock market moved most upwards…

29 August 2009 – interesting to look back on the musings on shape of the 2008/09 recession in retrospect. In Europe, while the financial crisis is still not over (had the end of it been proclaimed, we would have to see different-than-zero interest rates) there was a double-dip recession, with the second bottom of W-letter touched at the end of 2012.

2 September 2009 – these bearish postings are getting boring. Yet, they reflect my key investment strategy I use until today. I wait for a local trough in corrections to buy up shares near lows and sell them a few weeks later with double-digit (in percent) profits. Predictably, the forecast was a miss.

14 October 2009 – no stock market tumble was observed, decreasing my hit ratio, but after the first early spell of winter, no snow was seen in Warsaw for 2 months.

16 December 2009 – here I was more successful – the stock market correction I waited for ensued in early February 2010, PLN generally appreciated against other currencies, Mr Bernanke was elected for his second term as CEO of the money-printing factory.

5 January 2010 – I mentioned a forecast of long and snowy winter. Generally it proved true. In January 2010 temperature dropped to –23C and in mid-February snowcover reached 53 centimetres in Warsaw. The last gasp of winter was felt around the half of March.

30 January 2010 – I estimated odds of failure of my bearish conjectures at 35%. Was much enough to prove me wrong.

5 February 2010 – post compiled on the second day of an abrupt stock market decline. Yet the guess the bull market was just a correction in a long-term downward trend was flawed.

19 April 2010 – I foresaw a crash on stock market, which in a soft version ensued three weeks later, in the wake of threat of Greek default.

6 November 2010 – makes a reference to reliability of long-term weather forecasts. Winter in 2010 was to hit early, while November 2010 was extraordinarily warm. The long-term forecast of winter 2010/11 generally proved right, except for late advent of spring.

13 November 2010 – here I mentioned what I had heard of a projections of super-crash in late 2014. It is too early to judge whether this forecast was correct, but I today I would not dismiss it out of hand.

19 January 2011 – bolstered up by strength of the Polish economy, I put too much faith in the Polish stock market. In the short-term indeed the Polish equities performed well and the blue chip WIG20 index peaked in April 2011 above 2,900 points, but then, in August 2011 plummeted and at the end of the year was well below expected 3,200 points.

2 October 2011 – another chance to confront long-term weather forecasts with reality.

- October was chilly – hit.

- November was generally cold, but not wet – partly hit,

- December was anything but frosty and dry – miss,

- January also neither very frosty, nor dry - miss,

- February instead of above-average temperature brought the longest cold snap since 1987, but its last days were balmy – miss,

- March was spring-like – hit.

1 January 2012 – contains a whole bulk of predictions for 2012:

- financial market were quite wobbly indeed – hit,

- fire in PIGS countries was put out, bondholders of Greek government debt had to take on board a loss of 53% of face value of securities they held, but Greece was not forced out of the eurozone – miss,

- winter did not stay mild and the lowest temperature was –23C rather than –16C – miss,

- in 2012 indeed Poland’s economy expanded slower than in 2011 and economic performance, measured by GDP growth, was worse than in early 2009 – hit,

- property prices kept going down – hit,

- no economic disaster struck us – miss, fortunately, albeit markets were very shaky and investors fearful in 2Q2012.

1 September 2013 – had a go at dream interpretation. In retrospect, what I thought could send misery on me, left no mark on me, I was not riding for a fall.

6 October 2013 – an extensive and informative (I dare to claim one of my best) post on prospects of the property market in Poland. 3Q2013 figures point at surge in demand and uptick in prices. I suspect we have to wait until data for 2Q2014 (to see a full year of upward trend) to judge whether last revival is just a temporary rebound, or the trend has sustainably reversed.

1 December 2013 – also to early to evaluate accuracy of the forecast. Second half of January 2014 saw a considerable correction on developed stock market, but clearly there are no reasons to speak about any crash. Needless to say, QE tapering might clamp down on the bull market that has lasted for five years.

I sadly and honestly have to admit my hit ratio over five years was low. I would justify my poor performance by psychological bias in forecasting. I envisaged what was favourable for me, not necessarily the scenario grounded in cogent economic reasoning.

I thank all the ardent readers of the blog for their endurance and patience. Take care!

Economics for masses

A shame economics is not widely taught at schools during the ‘general education’ stage. The high-school curriculum includes a course in ‘basics of entrepreneurship’, which gives brief overview of rudimentary economic concepts to teenagers, but attention the course receives from both teachers (who often deem it to be a ball and chain to do everything to tick it off) and students seems inadequate. The upshot is that understanding of economics among ordinary people appears insufficient.

Basic grasp of economics (as well as of any discipline, ranging from fine arts, through physics, ending on medicine) is essential to function well in the contemporary world and to understand how it all works. I do not posit an ordinary man should be familiar with all the concepts a first-year student of economics should know inside out to get a pass in courses in basic micro- and macroeconomics or finance. An average man should not learn by heart formulas, solve equations, nor drill down vague concepts. An average man should recognise some causations and be aware how some phenomena affect their own personal finances.

Command of basic economic principles, from what I have observed, gives you one ultimate benefit in life. If you are well-versed in economics, you are less likely to be deceived by other people. And those who are most likely to trick you come usually from three groups: politicians, journalists and self-styled financial advisors. Politicians tend to over-promise, but an economically literate voters should be able to assess whether the promises are affordable for the state. Journalists in Poland too often have too little notion on topics they write about, or do not carry out extensive research before spewing out an article, but economically literate readers should be able to distinguish substantive piece from a bullshit (pardon the foul language). Financial advisors are those who try to appear as wiser than you when it comes to managing your personal finances, while in fact they are just fee-oriented salespeople, who advise you what is good for them. An excellent example of a man who fell victim of their “advice” was a guy who in 2007 looked for a loan to buy a flat. Property prices at that time were sky-high, but paradigm that they will double over the next decade was still widespread and risk tolerance excessive. Prompted by a financial advisor, he took out a 110% CHF-denominated mortgage to finance a flat purchase for 400,000 PLN. The remaining 40,000 PLN he invested in aggressive investment fund at the peak of stock market bull market. In 2007 his assets equalled liabilities and stood at 440,000 PLN. After the financial crisis: value of his flat dropped from 400,000 PLN to 300,000 PLN, half of his contribution into investment fund evaporated, his mortgage debt, converted into PLN, mounted to 800,000 PLN. A few years later the guy’s assets were 320,000 PLN, while his liabilities were 2.5 times higher.

The approach in which you focus on outcomes of economic processes, without exploring details, is far too rare in today’s economic discourse. Those who propagate speaking about economics in simple words, intelligible for an average man, deserve the biggest accolades. Tadeusz Mosz, who departed last Wednesday, was one of such men. His TV and radio programmes have done a superb job in terms of promoting economic literacy among masses. He had his own unique style and his guests had to conform to it. In his programmes there was little room for economic jargon; meanders of economics were straightened out into plain language and outcomes were favoured over the workings. Mr Mosz was facing a huge challenge, since in economics “it depends” is the answer to too many questions. For example, if you ask, whether it is good for an average Pole, if PLN appreciates and bad when zloty depreciates, or the other way round, there is no straightforward answer. It depends on a variety of factors. And you can go on for hours about them… A mediocre economist could witter on about exchange rate movements and their whys and wherefores endlessly. A clever economist, appearing in Mr Mosz’s programme before audience made up of ordinary people, would have to squeeze the answer into a few straightforward, informative sentences in plain Polish.

For many months I have not followed Mr Mosz’s programmes. I would not be even able to tell you how long before his departure he had ceased to turn up on air. Some four years ago, as a student, I would follow his “Plus Minus” programme in TVP Info on day-by-day basis. I used to watch it, but I was not fond of it. As a student fascinated by complexity of economics and financial markets, I found the discussions moderated by Mr Mosz over-simplified, far over-simplified. I craved for splitting hairs, touching hearts of problems, while Tadeusz Mosz’s guests focused on what economic phenomena mean for ordinary people. With hindsight I see at that time I was out of his league.

Mr Mosz’s style of presence in the public discourse bears out, again, the paramount importance of linguistic clarity. To be an expert in a specific area, you need to have extensive knowledge, but to be an outstanding, widely appreciated expert, you must be able to share your knowledge with ordinary audience in simple words. The ability to convert intricate issues into plain language is the skill that ought to be fostered.

Tadeusz Mosz’s death came as a bolt from the blue. He had no makings of a celebrity, so no one could keep track of his struggle against cancer in gossip columns. For the last weeks he suffered in silence and passed away in silence, with dignity. His departure is a great loss for economic journalism in Poland, as I dare to claim no other journalist has done so much to bring economics closer to people and help them understand for it affects their lives. His work should be carried on, but is there any successor who could take it over?

Growing mature?

At the Soulmate’s insistence, I finally re-watched “A beautiful mind”, the magnificent film I once had seen when it went to silver screen and I had been fourteen then. I only remembered I had been under the spell of the drama; nothing more. The second viewing, dozen of years after the first one, had all features of the first viewing. For the first hour of watching, I was promising myself to look up whether John Nash’s mathematical genius was indeed exploited U.S. Army agencies in the first years of cold war. Subsequent scenes passed by until I finally realised most of the plot I had witnessed were just John Nash’s delusions or a blend of reality and figments of the great mathematician’s imagination. Then ensued the gruesome depiction of him, fighting the illness.

The film is neither a faithful biography of Mr Nash, nor does it focus on his contribution to theory of economics. The big-screen interpretation of his biography leaves out some facts from his life (my point of reference is the wikipedia entry) and distorts others. It totally omits the story of having an illegitimate child before getting married, the divorce to his wife, as well as the fact they were not married in 1994 when he was receiving the Noble prize. The selective references to his academic achievements seem actually in place, given most of the audience have basic notion of game theory, economics and abstract aspects of mathematics and would actually get bored if the film dwelled on academic concepts.

The plot actually revolves around the theme of a hell a person suffering from paranoid schizophrenia goes through. I have no idea how much trouble the crew shooting the film had taken to explore perception of the world by a person afflicted by that mental illness, so I would not dare to assess the accuracy with which the delusion Mr Nash could have had, were presented. Probably even extensive studies on schizophrenia-affected mind and hours spent talking with psychiatrists specialising in the topic would just allow to produce a substitute, simplified picture of what actually goes on in ill person’s head.

The moment a viewer realises the events they have followed for the half of the film were just a delusion, comes as a shock. The scenes witnessed in the second half of the film emanate with torment afflicting a mentally-ill outstanding academic.

I wonder why has someone come up with this very and no other title of the film. What was so ‘beautiful’ in Mr Nash’s mind? The film might not depict truthfully the mathematician’s disposure, attitude towards the world and relationships with people and I should make allowances for it. But the picture of his personality which emerges from the film shows an outstanding academic whose grasp of complex mathematics and ability to describe interactions in the world using algorithms and equations are totally outshined by absolute lack of social competencies and conviction of his own superiority. According to the article dated 2002, when the film was nominated to Oscar Award, the film deftly passes over dark sides of Mr Nash’s biography, as in the reality his conduct was at best shameful. As the author points out, at the time of releasing Mr Nash was still alive and could sue film-makers for putting him in bad light, therefore they have filtered out all “sludge” (a perfect equivalent of Polish omnipresent word SYF) and have put out a rose-coloured, though poignant picture of a man trying to overcome the mental disease. In fact, Mr Nash was an exceptionally gifted, but full of himself mathematician, those talents were offset by social deficiencies. No mind over matter here for me and no sympathy for the devil.

Despite his ‘lousy character’, John Nash will go down in history as a Noble prize winner who has made considerable contribution into game theory. It has to be noted his exceptional intellect made him prone to mental illness which almost knocked down his career.

Recall the story of my classmate who once begged me to lend him money (I have not recovered until today)? Karol was also remarkably clever, therefore my first guess on why he had wheedled out thousands of zlotys from his friends was schizophrenia. Only later his mother told me he had fallen into compulsive gambling. But my general observation was spot-on – even his therapists confirmed due to his wits, curing his addiction was more complicated. I last called his mother in December 2012, she was very reluctant to talk me and only let me know he was still doing his time for unpaid debts. Watching “A beautiful mind” reminded me of his calamity. I wonder what and how he is doing…

Mother Nature when she endows people with competencies usually strives to be even-handed when giving out talents. Those generously bestowed with some skills lack other. The other story is that intelligence and emotional intelligence often do not pair up. A few weeks ago I was invited to participate in a meeting on talent development in my company during which someone asked a question, whether there can be any drawbacks of retaining most clever employees. Without second thoughts I responded: “A not really clever employee will do their job according to the rules and will not take the trouble to think how to circumvent them. A quite clever employee might be shrewd enough to come up with a way how to circumvent the rules, but if internal control systems are efficient enough, they will be caught. An outstandingly clever employee will not only circumvent the rules, but will also dupe the internal control system. Thus their misconduct might unnoticed and results might grow big until they blow up the whole company.” My not really well-thought-out (in the context of the meeting and its participants) was maybe politically incorrect, but I believe was actually spot-on. The more intelligent you are, the more dangerous you are. The history has proven this dependency right.

Drifting back from another digression to the pivot of this post, I posit one should sometimes grow up to fully grasp content one is exposed to it. This spans from understanding purports of books, films or dramas to taking part in religious celebrations. My reception of “A beautiful mind” differs from impressions the film made on me in 2002. The same happened recently when I read George Orwell’s 1984 for the second time, while the first time was in 2006.

Recently I repeatedly asked myself a question whether familiarising young people with some stuff should not be deferred. Two months ago I went to a theatre to see an enjoyable, hilarious, play. Most of the audience were teenagers (aged approximately 16 who came as organised school group) who most of the time would burst out laughing, giggle, whistle or shout something towards actors. Oddly enough, shortly thereafter I read a letter from a reader of Gazeta Wyborcza, who experienced even more scandalously behaving youngsters in another theatre. I am of the opinion sensitivity to high art should be instilled into young people before it is too late, especially because not everyone’s parents care about this aspect of child’s development, but should such occurrences be the price to be paid?

Social media – why be involved?

Musings prompted by a conference I attended last Thursday. No matter if you embrace or reject the presence of social media in the life, you should not disregard them and if you have ambitions to be an all-rounder, you should understand how the function.

Quite often in business, if your company refuses to participate in a social media fad, its web-present competitors get the edge over it, by dint of being more recognisable. As a few years ago you could hear if you do not have a facebook profile, you do not exist. I would still argue this is untrue, as life goes on mostly beyond facebook, but with time, as social media evolve, it seems to be useful to leave one’s mark there.

With time more folks realise it might be beneficial to be involved in the social media, but as the speaker at the conference I attended pointed out, one should eschew two major pitfalls. Firstly, do not get involved because others do. Secondly, do not get involved because everyone else claims it is appropriate to do so, etc. Making use of social media must be natural to bear fruits. If you do not feel the need to twit or run your company’s facebook page, better hold back, as inept doings might do more harm than good. In order not to spoil the effect, many businesses hire experts in social media and give them a free hand to do the job.

Once you are present in the social media, others begin to follow you and expect you to show up there more or less frequently. Living up to your followers’ expectations is a measure of your content’s quality. Expectations vary, depending on kind of social media utility you use.

On LinkedIn which helps you build a professional network, very infrequent appearances are acceptable. For professional and practical reasons, you hardly ever need to constantly share any stuff, so even if profile upgrades appear with delay and when you are just about to look for a new job, there is nothing to worry about.

Twitter requires more attention. On account of the utility’s nature a single involvement should be short (as much as it takes an idea to spring to your mind and then for you to squeeze it into no more than 140 characters to twit it to the world), but frequent. Messages should be concise, up-to-date and posted frequently. If you do not follow these rules, do not expect your twits to be followed by many.

Facebook, according to the speaker, requires even more attention than a twitter account. I do not know whether he referred to a private facebook profile, or a company’s / organisation’s facebook page. The latter, in order to gain and later not to lose exposure, does involve frequent updates and new postings. As for the former, judging by my friends’ and mine facebook profile, frequent sings of life are not a must. Many people choose facebook to be one of oddly used life-enhancers, not a utility which tells their friends they are just visiting coffee shop, sunbathing on a beach or struggling boredom at work.

Blogs are said to be the most “resource-intensive”. As a blogger with almost five-years’ experience behind the keyboard I could not agree more. Out of all social media blogs are the biggest timesucks – not only should they be update frequently, but also each involvement is time-consuming. Amount of time spent blogging does not automatically qualify a blog as attractive. Unlike social networking or twitting, blogging requires skill. Only a skilful and passionate blogger can grow the blog outstanding and establish a long-lasting rapport with their readership.

Out of all the stuff described above I only do not have a twitter account. As I still use my old, always reliable Nokia 3110 Classic, I am not capable of twitting whenever and wherever I am. LinkedIn account is what I use for practical reasons, two or three times in a month. Facebook is visited everyday, but there is not really much trace of my activity there, and if I happen to do something on facebook, it is about liking something, someone else’s content, or sharing links to noteworthy stuff. As a matter of principle I hardly every share details of my private life on facebook. It is rather the blog, where, with the narrower audience I seldom wash my dirty linen in public.

One topic which has not been brought up during the conference was the savoir-vivre in using the social media, in particular if the existence of pecking order among its users. If somebody joins a social network utility, it is customary they connect to incumbent users. But what if two settled users get to know each other in real world and are about to connect via LinkedIn, facebook or any other social media page? Should the younger invite the older? Should a man add a woman to his circle? Should a subordinate connect to their superior? Or the other way round? Or given the equanimity social media offer, it does not matter at all?

If you are to fully embrace the social media and make the most of the opportunities they offer, it is crucial to stay online all the time. If so, a portable device, such as smartphone, tablet, or another contraption is what you need. I do not possess any of them and, oddly enough, I am not attracted by them. I somehow prefer to be offline, in the real world only and dose out my visits to the Internet. I realise I am not keeping up with the rest of the civilisation and one day I will have to give in and catch up.

Safe bets on stock market?

Risk-averse investors tend to put all their money into safe instruments – mainly bank deposits and government bonds. The stock market, on account of its characteristics, exposes investors to much bigger variability of returns, tempting with gains much higher than on bank deposits, but also scaring away with prospects of losses that can wipe out large chunks of invested capital.

Risk profile of investments in equities is not homogenous. The two factors affecting the risk undertaken by an investor are, in my opinion: type of security an investor trades in and timing of transactions.

As for the former, the risk, commonly measured by volatility of returns, is lower for: bigger (blue-chips), counter-cyclical (sectors such as telecommunication or utilities) and sound (i.e. not grappling with financial difficulties) companies. The low-risk stocks usually are said to be a good-quality equity investments and offer expected return a few percentage points above risk-free rate and relatively low standard deviation of returns.

In the case of the latter, the issue is far more interesting. In terms of risk, timing of trade might matter more than other characteristics of an asset. You may pick out an excellent security, with absolutely firm fundamentals, no skeleton in the cupboard, etc. and lose money on the investment, if you pay over the odds. This is what happened to investors who were buying shares of sound IT or telecom companies at the peak of dot-com bubble in late 1999 / early 2000 and lost over 90% of invested capital. The companies whose stocks were trading at sky-high levels are still alive and generate profits, but fourteen years ago were… mispriced.

Now let’s consider two concepts essential in comprehending what I am getting at – the value and the price.

There are plenty of definitions of value put forward by economics academics, in my consideration I will narrow down to only one – the intrinsic value, or fundamental value, which is to some extent objectively justified by characteristic features of an asset. In the case of a share of a company, it is primarily determined by the company’s capacity to generate income to its owner, or in simplest words, to make profits. In valuation theory, a company is worth as much as discounted stream of positive cash flows it can generate to its equityholders.

The price, in turn, is the amount of money one party (a buyer) pays to another party (a seller) when they trade in an asset. The price is driven by several factors, including two of utmost importance – demand and supply. For a stock-listed security, a price is technically set by forces of demand and supply and most of the time (except for extreme cases when trading is on hold to prevent extreme movements) reflects the balance between supply and demand, which in turn is unstable over time. If supply exceeds demand, the equilibrium goes down, if the opposite holds, the equilibrium goes up.

It has to be underlined price does not have to equal value. In the long run, if a market is efficient, the equation above should hold true. In the shorter run deviations are very likely to occur and, if discernible and evident, can be exploited to earn.

Let’s look at two examples from the Polish stock market.

First days of September 2013. The Polish government unfolds its plan to curtail operations of private-run pension funds operating under the public pension system. Market participants react with panic sell-off. Let’s examine the motives / rationale behind the sell-off. This could have been an act of revenge of foreign financial institutions, whose risk-free business in Poland had just been undercut. 

The mini-crash could have also been sparked by fears that pension funds would dispose of some of the stocks they hold and that they would not generate additional demand for stocks in the future. The former argument could have served as incentive for speculators who could sell (short) stocks in order to buy them back at cheaper prices from pension funds. The latter theory was actually favourable for the stock market, as without artificial demand from pension funds, risk of overvaluation and market bubbles on Warsaw Stock Exchange diminishes.

A cool-headed analyst should ask a question, whether existence and scale of operations of private-run pension funds in Poland has any impact on fundamental value of stock-listed companies. For some financial services companies who deal with pension fund management, the answer could be affirmative, but for overwhelming majority of companies, dismantling of pension system has no impact on value. The conclusion is then simple – even if forces of supply and demand bring prices of some securities down, the situation creates investment opportunity – you can get the same value for lower price! A wise investor should grab such opportunity.

14 January 2014. Before trading commenced, Vattenfall announces it intends to dispose of its stake in Enea quickly. Trading opens 8% below previous day’s close, then the price of Enea slides further down, total 1-day loss reaches 14%. The accelerated book-building ends on the same day. The next day stocks of Enea rebound, yet still trade at discount to 13 January 2014 close. 

The rationale behind the sudden drop was the fear of increased supply of stocks from Vattenfall, or expectation if the stake is to change hands quickly, the vendor would have to accept a discount and market quotations would follow the price at which Vattenfall transacted with its counterparties. You could argue the price at which the vendor and several buyers agreed is an indicator of the company’s intrinsic value. I would counter-argue price in a fire sale is a poor valuation measure. Again, does the increased supply of stocks from Vattenfall affect income generation capacity of Enea? My answer is ‘no’. Does Vattenfall’s presence in Enea’s shareholder structure affect its income generation capacity? Given all facts and circumstances shaping the company’s operations, my answer is ‘no’ Again, probably the price deviated negatively from value. A shrewd investor should have grabbed this opportunity.

The strategy illustrated above is not foolproof though. There are 3 major traps an imprudent investor can fall into.

Firstly, you should be considerably confident the when price of a security plummets, it drops below its intrinsic value. Such sudden shock can occur as well when an asset is overpriced and its price is being abruptly adjusted towards the fundamental value. You have to carefully analyse the information that triggered the sell-off – maybe on second thoughts you realise it affects not only price but also value. Upward potential is then limited.

Secondly, the rebound might not be a matter of days. It might take weeks or months for a security to climb back to pre-plummet levels. In September 2013 losses of stockholders were quickly offset by subsequent gains, but it I would treat it as an exception that proves the rule. If you cannot accept the fact your money might be frozen for a few months before it fetches a decent profit, better give up on this strategy. Remember the market might stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.

Thirdly, even if you are pretty sure you have just spotted an underpriced security and you will not need some portion of your money for a while, do not execute the strategy in one shot. Do not buy securities for all the cash you have at hand. Divide your holdings and be prepared to buy even more at even lower prices if the decline continues. Such approach reduces both potential gains if the price bounces back quickly, but can maximise them if the price keeps falling, as your average buy price also gets lower. Anyway, remember you are playing with turbulent market, so caution, cool head and restraint are advised.

When can you say you are young?

A man is as young as he feels, not as he is… Age is much better determined by one’s behaviour than by date of birth. Context also matters. 30-year-old man who still studies is an old student, but his peer becoming a prime minister would be considered extremely young.

The question on perception of youth has been prompted by the article published in“Polityka” several weeks ago, dwelling on political careers of four well-recognised politicians, all in their 30s, deemed, not only in that instance, “young”.

The ‘young’ tag was quite reassuring for me – if they are 7.5 to 13 years older than me, long before my youth goes by.

The oldest of all those guys is Sławomir Nowak, born in 1974. He first became a deputy in 2004 (after elections to the Euro parliament). In 2010 he was responsible for running presidential campaign of current president Bronisław Komorowski, then for a year and a half he was in charge of president’s office. In November 2011 subsequently he was appointed minister of transport and infrastructure, shortly before Euro 2012 opening. Many considered this nomination a nail to his coffin, as the area of his ministry’s responsibility was a huge mess. Delays in road contracts completion, bankruptcies of contractors and subcontractors of road-building projects have not dragged him down, but he fell into a trap of the fondness for expensive watches he would exchange with his friends. Mr Nowak was charged with concealing in his financial disclosure statement a watch worth 17,000 PLN and submitted resignation. The watch worth more than yearly after-tax minimum pay had to bring about indignation in Poland. Most Poles held it against him he had flaunted stuff an average Pole cannot afford to buy, but in fact this is just a tip of the iceberg and something not really meaningful. What should have really called into question his political career were tie-ups with businessmen (Cam-media, etc.) and mismanagement…

Tomasz Kaczmarek, born in 1976, became famous in 2007, when as an anti-corruption agency officer he seduced and then (within the letter of law) bribed a Civic Platform deputy. His mission and its aftermath was exposed to the public five days before parliamentary elections. The move, astonishingly, tipped the scales in favour of Civic Platform. In 2010, aged 34, he retired. As a 35-year-old (!!! here the term “young” is so apposite !!!) pensioner was elected a deputy from Law and Justice list. In November 2013, while driving his girlfriend’s Porsche Cayenne he was so preoccupied with pondering upon the situation of Poland that he rear-ended another car. In December 2013 recordings of Mr Kaczmarek threatening his partner’s ex-husband in foul language leaked to the media. Recently he was ousted from the grouping nurturing law and justice. Mr Błaszczak told today the party could not put up with his misconduct. They began to see the light, belatedly…

Przemysław Wipler, born in 1978, Polish conservative politician, formerly a member of Law and Justice. He left Kaczyński’s party of account of its inadequate economic liberalism and sometime ago joined Jarosław Gowin’s fledging grouping. In late October 2013 the exemplary husband and father to five children (including the one unborn, counted in, in accordance with Catholic doctrine) picked up a fight with policemen outside a posh club (as befits a conservative politician) on ul. Sienkiewicza in Warsaw. Then, during public appearances he tried to make himself a martyr. To no avail… He was really young when he took charge of one departments in the ministry of economy. He was only 27 then… Did he have, three years of university graduation, pertinent experience to be in charge of a unit in a ministry or did he owe the appointment his political tie-ups?

Adam Hofman, born in 1980 is the youngest and the most remarkable politician out of the four described by “Polityka”. His political career picked up speed when, aged 25, he was elected to the parliament in September 2005. He emerged as Law and Justice’s rising star by virtue of being the brains of the party’s electoral campaigns and PR. Brash and bold, insolent and over-confident, there is no barefaced lie, accusation, nor absurdity that would not flow out of his mouth without a moment of hesitation. The guy is not likeable, even ardent believers of PiS, on Toyah’s blog have not embrace his doings in politics. In 2013 he became infamous for boasting about the size of his penis during party’s off-site and then, for concealing in his financial disclosure statement a 100,000 PLN loan (a move quite common among money launderers). As the charges against have lapsed, the investigation has been discontinued and he was reinstated as the party’s spokesman. I foresee one day JarKacz will regret allowing him to play second fiddle in the party.

When speaking about “youngsters” in politics it is hard to fail to mention the new finance minister. This “very young” man is 38 and has 16 years’ experience in banking, including serving as chief economist for several years. Since taking the office, the new minister made very few public appearances. Judging by the sparse evidence of them, it has to be noted he is nowhere as good as his predecessor in terms of speaking in public and coming under fire from detractors. Mr Rostowski could not be denied outstanding composure. When attacked, he would always stay even-tempered, calmly and clearly made his point and, if necessary, retorted his opponents incisively. The new minister seems to have focused on turnaround of the tax system, convoluted and taxpayer-unfriendly. A stride should be made when comes to simplifying and ‘humanising’ the taxation system, but the recent proposal that tax returns will be filled by tax office clerks rather than taxpayers immediately triggers a question “who will pay for this?” – we are talking about millions of tax returns – it takes workforce that have to be paid from taxes paid by us… Well, my ideal finance minister would a down-to-earth, pragmatic practitioner, not a starry-eyed scholar. For Mr Szczurek the new position is a enormous challenge and will have to learn a lot.

The “juvenile” minister backs youngsters in his office – he hired a 21-year-old student with little experience and 23-year-old ruling party member. This gets more controversial – my perspective changes, as I am witness thriving careers of people younger than me. But try to imagine what an average reader of a Polish tabloid (much older than me, not well-educated and not well-off) thinks, when they read that a 21-year-old student will earn twice as much as them after twenty or thirty years of work, or a 23-year-old distinguished party member will earn 8,000 PLN a month before tax, salary out of reach for over 95% of Poles.

Also Mr Sienkiewicz, internal affairs minister also follows the practice of giving chances to youngsters. This is a great fodder for tabloids and their readership. The key questions is how those people were selected. If they are party henchmen or children of friends, then the practice is condemnable. If they were the most skilled and up-and-coming out of hundreds of applicants, chosen in a candidly carried out recruitment proceedings, why not. Salary of 4,000 PLN before taxes, some 10% above national average (but 100% above national median salary!) is (subjectively) not a reason for outrage. Many of my peers and I earned more when we were 23.

The post is aimed to raise a question, whether age should be a criterion when assessing someone’s competencies for a certain position. In some cultures, for example in Japan, seniority is an important determinant of one’s rank in a hierarchy, in other how quickly one can climb the ladder of career is a matter of their skills, hard work and other factors. Undeniably, the younger you are, the more likely you lack experience, because it simply takes time to gain it. But if out of two candidates with similar competencies for a specific position the older one is selected, because it seems more appropriate for a decision-maker, this looks like age discrimination.

Going downhill?

The New Year’s gloom is slowly abating, it definitely will go away for good with advent of regular daily grind in the corpo-world, due to commence the day after tomorrow.

Daily dose of news does not fill one with overly optimism though. Headlines in recent days were dominated by tidings of ‘carnage’ in Kamien Pomorski in north-west Poland, where on New Year’s Day an inebriated and intoxicated 26-year-old male murdered six people and left two other injured. The fatalities are members of two families who went with children for a New Year’s Day stroll. They were out of luck to be smashed by a somersaulting red BMW. In fact every one of us could have lost life in such brutal way.

The massacre gave rise to public outrage for many reasons. Not only because the culprit was guilty of drunk-driving, not only because in 2006 he was once deprived of his driving license for driving under influence (recidivist), not only because in seconds he took away several human beings’ lives. The most appalling was that he would be subject to up to 15 years of imprisonment, and charged with drunk-driving and causing fatal accident, while many believe he should be held accountable of murder and his 20-year-old female passenger (sober at the time of accident), who had done nothing to prevent him from sitting behind the wheel and argued with during the journey, should be accomplice. (BTW – what virtues has that man had to impress a woman?)

After the senseless death of six people, problem of drunk-driving has come under fire in the media and among politicians. The government intends to put forth far more severe punishments for drunk-driving and thus crack down on plague of pinheads sitting behind the wheel under influence.

Whether the stricter penalties serve their purpose is a debatable issue. The problem of drunk-driving is more social than political or legal (although if such crime as the one committed by 26-year-old bandit is not categorised as murder, it lays bare an evident shortcoming of the Polish penal code). The heart of the problem has been rightly located by Michael, who points out it is the ‘tacit consent’ / ‘acquiescence’ for drinking alcohol and sitting behind the wheel thereafter in the Polish society. Written law might fulfil its role better or worse, but it will surely do it better, if certain behaviours become intolerable. Drafting a new, restrictive law with severe punishments for drunk-driving and enacting it is a matter of weeks. Eradicating the ‘tacit consent’ for minds of millions of Poles is a task for years.

As correctly noted, people sit behind the wheel tanked-up, not because they are not precluded from it by gentle punishment, it is because they expect not to be caught. From economic perspective, a drunk driver considers the situation in their intoxicated brain in the following way: expected punishment = punishment times odds of being caught. If the latter is low, even if the former is high, the outcome is low and they are more likely to drive…

A law which is not enforceable is worth nothing… What is the point for irreversible loss of driving licence? Maybe my way of thinking is weird, but this measure simply does not work. If somebody is to sit behind the wheel, they will do this, no matter if they possess the document or not. Forfeiture of property (vehicle) and pecuniary penalties should serve as primary measures against inebriated drivers.

That ‘carnage’ is not the only incident from recent days which called into question faith in people…

On 28 December 2013 a 22-year-old male killed with a hammer his 30-year-old friend and his 8-year-old son, who accidentally witnessed the murder. Then the criminal stole 1,000 PLN and the victim’s car and dashed off. His escaped did not last long – soon after he crashed the car and was detained by the police. The murder was committed with cold blood.

On New Year’s Eve, in Łódź, a drunk pregnant (9th month) 31-year-old woman, was run down by a car. Circumstances of the accident still remain unclear, but from the picture that emerges it transpires she was a member of gang which threatened to damage cars in order to wheedle out money from their owns. One of their victims was a 67-year-old man returning from fireworks show. While trying to run away, he probably did not see the pregnant woman lying on the street and mowed her down. The woman died on the same day, her child passed away two days after (this is the most probably scenario presented in the media)

On the same day, somewhere in southern Poland a drunk 33-year-old man almost trounced to death a 3-month-old infant. The child is fighting for life.

On New Year’s Day three men in their 20’s threw a firework into a house inhabited by a disabled man. For kicks. The firework set the fire. The man with first and second degree burns was taken to hospital, his dwelling is uninhabitable. For kicks…

And while I was writing it, a drunk driver in Bytom hit into a group of people. Fortunately, nobody was killed, nor severely injured.

Down in the dumps, I was surely oversensitive to such news. These eye-popping examples of cruelty and idiocy, although gruesome and unacceptable, should not spoil the overall picture of Poland. It is not the country of widespread criminality, full of drunk murderers, albeit in terms of common sense behind the wheel, catching up with more civilised nations would improve safety on Polish roads. The only alarming common denominator of all misdeeds mentioned above is that they were committed by relatively young (aged less than 35) people. This does not cast good light on generation which in decade or two should become Poland’s elite.

I wish such accident do not recur. I can merely wish, as I fail to come up with a prescription for successful measures decreasing criminality. I only hazard a guess it is not a task for politicians or lawmakers. It is a task for social engineers and everyone who could tamper with people’s mindsets…

2013 end-year thoughts

‘For posterity, with sincerity’ – has been one of the overriding rules of blogging I am committed to obey, as I soldier on as the author of PES. If I write, I do it not only for my own pleasure, but for others, not only to let them enjoy my work, but also leave a testimony of my mindset at specific moments, in specific circumstances. If I write, I do not conceal nor misrepresent what I think or feel (unless there is a very profound reason to do so).

Since I entered adulthood (meaning turned 18) I have found the days between Christmas and New Year’s Eve the most depressing period of the year. I can give several reasons that dash my spirits in the last days of each year:

- short, often gloomy days,

- in the Christmas period everything is ticking over, after pre-Christmas rush people slow down and human activity almost comes to a standstill, it seems the world is in a limbo, hanging somewhere in the space between heaven and hell,

- last days of the year naturally are the time of summaries, finishing things, making resolutions, for some reason it is the time when successes are outshined by failures.

I come to think the western civilisation has set Christmas around winter solstice and built such pre-occupying setting around it only to light up the time of the year which is naturally the most depressing on the north hemisphere. And I come to think New Year’s Day celebrations are also set a few days after, just to give a decent excuse for everyone to get tanked up…

Despite the overwhelming gloom, in each of the previous years I was looking forward to coming new year with a dose of optimism. This year I lack that cheerfulness. My feelings are not contrary to what I felt – I do not expect my life would get any worse, I just foresee little or no chance for improvement ahead.

Life-love-wise… Quite recently I gave you a brief overview of my attempts to find a second half. For the time being, I have given it a rest… Looking for a second half too intently is doomed to fail, so my strategy is to look for opportunities, instead of looking for a girl. There are odds something good lies ahead, but I don’t want to put a jinx on it. To avoid a letdown, as a matter of principle I hope for the worst. The downside of such approach is that I don’t let myself spread wings and taste the craze of having a crush on a girl, while the upside is I don’t get disillusioned when it all doesn’t pan out.

Learning-wise… Signing up for Level II was my independent decision, so I can hold it exclusively against myself. Preparations have been under way for four months, more than five months still to go. The curriculum is not as difficult as said by those who tried to scare me (if so many charter holders were capable of passing it at first attempt, why couldn’t I?), so if enough time is sacrificed and the issue is taken seriously and not treated as a proverbial ‘piece of cake’, I should take the exam in my stride. Before the exam day comes, I will have spent hundreds of hours poring over six thick volumes and then tens of hours revising the material and taking mock exams, but at least there is a tangible goal ahead…

Work-wise…In January 2013 I was faced with an opportunity to change a job. My prospective employer operates in the same industry, my new position would have been similar to the present one. I gave it up (by demanding sky-high salary and pricing out of the market) for several reasons, before the prospective employer decided to submit a commitment letter to me:

- my current employer within 2 weeks offered me a promotion and a substantial pay rise,

- scope of responsibilities on the new position did not suit my expectations – it actually involved being a sidekick of a salesperson, a relationship I can wriggle out of where I work,

- my new manager, unlike the current one, would have been a total jerk.

Before long my current workplace went on decline. From 2Q2013 the company began to lose its biggest customers, as either relationships with them had not fetched adequate profitability, or they had found our services uncompetitive. My employer’s credentials on the market has also been grimed – prime customers from the segment I deal with no longer want us to provide them services, while those in trouble eagerly turn to my company. Portfolio of large clients shrank dramatically (new volumes offset drop by less than 10%) and is unlikely to be restored, while the existing customers require more and more attention. In the meantime two colleagues from my team got pregnant and I (as an up-and-coming senior analyst) was assigned to take over most of their duties. When on top of this I got involved in a huge transformation project as a junior leader, I ended up working for 11 hours a day not to get behind with my work. Absence of new business loomed as salvation, but if an organisation focuses on itself, instead of on its customers, it will cease to make money sooner or later – with this truism in mind, my motivation dropped…

In October the prospective employer posted a job opening for a different position that seemed a dreamt-up one for me. Hoping to break away, I sent them the application, but my candidacy was turned down. The Soulmate, who has inside ties with the prospective employer, has a mission to suss out how it really was – whether my early-year game had resulted in burning bridges with the prospective employer, or the chosen candidate had been selected beforehand and the opening had been posted for procedural reasons, or maybe I just had not met their expectations. As I called the HR Department shortly before Christmas to find out what the status of my application was, and learnt they had selected a new employee, it was a blow for me…

My current job, for this single reason that my company effectively withdraws from the segment of clients I deal with, seems dead-end. According to my current employer’s declarations and recent moves, I should not expect to be fired when my department is wiped out. In an attempt to retain me, the employer may relocate me, or leave me covering all current troublesome clients, who do not stand a chance of being taken over by any of competitors. Either option is unattractive. The former because I will not find myself in project management, I will not find be satisfied doing a mundane reporting job. After all I’m a financial analyst and in the long-run doing a job that could be done by a clever high-school graduate is… beyond my dignity.  The latter because… it offers no opportunities to develop and is… dead-end. On the other hand, as the market is tough, if competitors look for staff it often means a transfer would mean jumping from frying pan into the fire… Decisions to change a job have to be taken carefully, to avoid falling into a trap. What brings some hope is that I still have some room for pay increase, compared to my current salary.

I had plans of moving out to my own flat in 2014. Over recent weeks, when I spent little time at home (leaving for work around 6:30 a.m. and coming back between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.) and somehow lost motivation to move out from parents. I’m self-supporting anyway, financially independent from parents, don’t let them help me out in any way, but living with them gives the benefit of having someone to talk to when returning home. In meantime, I keep putting aside around three-fourth of my salary, the savings will come in handy, when motivations flows back.

Christmas (politically correct ‘holiday’) period offered some respite (no working day off though): I spent time: sleeping (10 hours a day), eating (more than I usually do, but less than an average Pole does), doing physical exercise (going for at least 5-kilometre walks, going to swimming pool, riding a stationary bike), studying, in other words, catching up. Family visited us only at Christmas Eve, two subsequent Christmas days were uneventful. Much benefit for the body, little benefit for the soul. Not sustainable. May it take a turn for the better in the new year, against all odds…

Sense of justice – follow-up

Tuesday, 17 December 2013

I knock off near six p.m., being still behind with work. Enough is enough, I call it a day. Before seven p.m. odds of getting stuck in stationary traffic on ul. Puławska are negligible. Indeed, the traffic moves smoothly and as I drive at steady speed of 60 kpmh, I even manage to cross most intersections on green light. While approaching home, I get stuck in a queue of cars before intersection of ul. Raszyńska and ul. Mleczarska. Something is afoot, drivers are perplexed. After a minute I trundle forward to the intersection, pass by several damaged cars and turn right, barely avoiding being scraped by a driver of black Volkswagen SUV who thinks he’s a master of the road, and head to park my car in the garage. Then I put my father in the picture and we wander to the intersection to find out what happened. Prangs involving two vehicles are not infrequent on the nearby intersection, as ul. Mleczarska is narrow and visibility is poor, but this looked like a bigger smash-up – four cars damaged.

Some 30 minutes earlier... (full story in Polish here)

Auchan shopping centre in Piaseczno. Droves of people are roaming around the hypermarket and the adjacent shopping mall. Pre-Christmas rush is conducive to getting preoccupied and losing one’s mind. The owner of red Honda Civic walks out of the shopping centre and approaches his car. He pulls the car keys out of his pocket, press the button to unlock the door and… notices someone inside his vehicle. The thief cranks up the engine and swiftly drives away. The incident is witnessed by other shoppers. One of them instantly picks up the Honda owner, who in the meantime calls a police patrol) and they set off on a chase.

After running away one kilometre the thief comes upon a small traffic jam on his way and is caught up with by the Honda owner. In a desperate attempt to make his way through the busy road the thief crashes into three cars, forsakes the car and tries to make a getaway on foot. Some of the aggrieved (in info who exactly) jump out their cars, overpower the thief, knock him down on the road do not let him make off before the police arrives. As my father and I turn up, the criminal with a bleeding nose (probably the effect of scrimmage, serves him right) lies on the cold tarmac, cuffed in and awaits facing the music.

Sounds like a story with a happy ending. The thief didn’t manage to escape and was (temporarily) arrested. Nobody was injured. Justice triumphed again!

But on the other hand, four cars of innocent people were damaged. Who will pay for the repairs? Will they be paid from Civic owner’s third party liability insurance? If so, who will compensate him for losing discounts for damage-free track record? If not, what if some of those cars weren’t insured against own damage? What about those which were, but the repair will make them lose their discounts? The inebriated thief will be held accountable for theft and property damage, but even if convicted, will the Polish justice system manage to pull the last zloty out of his (shallow?) pocket to compensate the victims of his wrongdoing?

The exemplary, swift and sympathetic reactions of crime witnesses is profoundly reassuring. Such positive illustrations of civic attitude should be exposed to the public (and even rewarded) to induce others to follow their example. Actually by disenabling the criminal, their contributed to increasing well-being of the society.

With hindsight, I again pondered upon the borderline that should not be overstepped, when you are faced with a criminal and need to crack down on them. Recollect this post from February 2010. I’ve harked back to it instantly, read over and could write the same, in terms of content, today. When I return to my early posts of pension system, monetary policy and other issues I have clear views on, I see over almost five years of blogging my beliefs not only have not evolved, but even have become more entrenched. Does it mean my formative years have gone by so early?