Straten boven de tweede metrolijn geopend

On Tuesday morning, as I sauntered from the Świętokrzyska underground station to the office along ul. Świętokrzyska, watching construction crews bustling about to tidy up the unfinished street to meet the opening deadline of the turn of October, I said to myself “If they’re going to the works and open the street tonight, I’m a Dutchman”. The upshot of my unbefitting doubts is reflected in the title of the post… (credit to Google Translate)

On Tuesday late afternoon works were in overdrive, it seemed the general contractor was determined to bend over backwards and finish off by the end of September… On Wednesday morning I learnt online the streets above the central section of the second underground line had been opened. To the right – what I beheld as I emerged from underground. Doesn’t look spick and span, but it has been opened – the intersection ul. Marszałkowska and ul. Świętokrzyska.

As I march west, the sight of flowerpots, benches, cycling path and the very road, narrowed down to two lanes, gives ample evidence the development has been finished in haste. Looks nice, but lacks freshness it should exude… The opening could have been delayed by a few days to polish all the stuff up.

I approach ul. Emilii Plater and decide to snap (this time the regular camera is employed) part of Warsaw’s skyline; looking from the left: Żagiel (one of symbols of construction boom in Warsaw, under construction since 2007, after many tribulations, including suspension of works for over a year and finally termination of loan for the investor by Bank Pekao S.A. in late winter 2014; following the default the building was sold to another investor, however future dwellers, some of who paid tens of zlotys for each square metre of their apartments, still cannot move in as the occupancy permit has not been issued), Intercontinental Warsaw (I once went to a café there), Warsaw Financial Centre and beyond it, Rondo 1.

At Rondo ONZ it turns out traffic light are switched off, causing chaos on the roundabout. In the foreground – cycling paths. While looking at arrangement of cycling paths and how they cross pedestrians areas, it occurred to me at some places layout could have been more wisely designed. As the letter to weekend edition of Gazeta Stołeczna shows, I’m not the only one to have reached such conclusion.

And for the record, almost the same place in July 2011, construction site fenced off, long way before life returns to that place and changes its face.

West beyond Rondo ONZ, ul. Prosta has been broadened to three lanes in each direction. Prior to underground construction, this section of ul. Prosta has been a bottleneck. Now, after rearranging the historical Norblin factory, the street deserves a status of regular thoroughfare, as it goes further behind Rondo Daszyńskiego.

Again for the record – the very bottleneck in November 2011. A gloomy, dejecting picture, with hindsight filling one with hopes for a brighter future; the future that has become the present.

And another snap from November 2011, taken at the very end of the central section, where construction works began in September 2010. Now Żagiel (in the background, surrounded by cranes, under construction) is almost finished, where building machines stood, now is a wide dual carriageway.

For me the just opened streets bring little benefit in terms of improving my ways of moving around Warsaw, but for many residents of Warsaw it may signal the intense public infrastructure development programme, inconvenient for many of them, is drawing to a close. No doubt, the worst is over and effects are visible. I sense HGW will be elected for the third term as Warsaw’s mayor. Far from being a perfect host of the city, her pursuit of ‘lukewarm water in the tap’ policy is quite successful…

Directions for public transport…

Last Monday was just another annual car-free day, when traffic in Warsaw was denser than usual. The possibility to take the public transport free of charge proved insufficient to induce inhabitants of Warsaw agglomeration to give up on moving around by car for that one day. I must plead I also weighed up going by bus to the underground line, but I woke up to the sight of pouring rain, the prospect of walking to the bus stop between numerous puddles has effectively put me off the idea. With some shame I also plead not to regret my decision. The traffic jam up ul. Puławska was so solid that the journey to Metro Wilanowska would have taken damn long, while in my depreciating tin I took a detour via Jeziorki, passing by the most clogged up section between ul. Karczunkowska and ul. Ludwinowska.

Over the weekend preceding the car-free day, public transport days were held. Authorities from Warsaw town hall and local public transport companies have prepared several attractions to convince some of the car-ridden sods to switch to public transport. One of such events was the train trip from Warszawa Zachodnia to Siekierki power and heating plant, through the so-called ‘coal line’, running from sidings at Okęcie, via Nowa Iwiczna, Piaseczno, Julianów, Kierszek, Konstancin, up to Siekierki. A noteworthy coverage can be found on W-wa Jeziorki. Sadly, I ran across the info on planned trips on Sunday morning when it was too late both to sign up and to reschedule my day order. The only option I had was to spot the train passing by near my house…

The venue – level crossing on ul. Mleczarska, marking the border between Piaseczno and Stara Iwiczna. The place once documented here. After over 5 years little has changed in the place. Councillors from Piaseczno have been planning to modernise ul. Mleczarska for years, yet the planning phase has lasted too long and no visible effects are observable. I heard it on the grapevine the renovation is to commence in spring next year…

The train was scheduled to pass Nowa Iwiczna around 2:10 p.m. It turned up with 25-minute delay. The sight of passenger train occupied only by coal trains is rare enough to deserve to be captured.

Koleje Mazowieckie had little choice in terms of what type of vehicle to put up for the trip, given the coal line is not electrified. This one set of the carriages is propelled by a diesel engine, hence is less eco than its counterparts running on electricity…

The train getting closer. This the first time I try out the camera in the corpo-smartphone. My private phone is Nokia 3110 Classic I’ve had since early 2008 and as long as it stays reliable, don’t feel like swapping it for a state-of-the-art phone, but I begin to discover the potential of Szajsung. The camera is up-to-the-standard, not much worse than in my compact Olympus…

As the carriages pass by, there is one other anorak (not visible on the photo), capturing the train with much more professional equipment. He turned up seconds before train came, quite probably after chasing the train from previous place of photographing…

The very idea of a trip was commendable, but putting into operation regular services running between W-wa Służewiec and Piaseczno / Julianów / Konstancin is a daydream… (Michael contends it could be a fixed for problems of commuters from those southern suburbs) I do not see it practicable for the following reasons:

1. The coal line has only one track what means the service would be a shuttle train, running back and forth between W-wa Służewiec and Konstancin.

2. The line is not electrified what means rail cars would either had to have diesel engines or it would take extra CAPEX to put up posts and wires (apart from building platforms, etc.)

3. The line was built in 1930s and since then has not undergone a thorough modernisation what means trains can run no faster than 36 kmph and implying one (or at best two) train running during rush hours which does not solve the problem of congested ul. Puławska.

4. The same line is in the winter heavily used by coal trains which run several times a day when demand for electricity and heat is the highest. Sharing one track with a passenger service is hardly imaginable…

But local election draws near, so any type of bait for voters might come in handy…

What really has to be pondered upon by folks responsible for public transport is what has to be done to persuade car-ridden commuters to use public transport. It does not take simple measures applied so far, i.e. financial incentives and disincentives. It takes a change in mindsets of the car-ridden to pull them out of their cars and to do this, someone must understand why they claim they will not give up on cars. The most often mentioned reasons are:

1. “My own car is more convenient” – sometimes the argument is hard to disprove since sometimes people travel tinned like sardines, but in general the standard of public transport has been significantly raised in the recent years. Compared to time when I commuted to high school, a huge stride has been made. Travelling by public vehicles is stress-free which I see as a big advantage. I just hop in and out, not having to worry about finding a place to park, parking meters, etc.

2. “Moving by my own car is much faster” – except for city centre, in Warsaw it is in many cases true. If I leave the car at P&R Ursynów, it takes me less than an hour to get to and from work. Late in the evening the time saving is greated and so is the comfort of not having to wait for a bus to pull out from terminus is… My journey from home to P&R takes as long as a walk to the bus stop and waiting for a bus… Not to miss a walk, I stroll between the office and the underground station which is around one kilometre.

3. “Try dropping children to school and handling some more stuff by bus” – for people having children too young to go to school on their own this is an excuse. I even noticed several people switching to public transport on days when schools are closed. This can also explain difference in traffic volume between schooldays and school holidays… How to solve this problem of logistics?

For those intent to use their cars as a matter of principle, maybe only the hard version of stick and carrot will work. Privileges for public transport and financial disincentives for private cars… The issue Warsaw is to tackle to show the superiority of public transport is to bring down fares for single journey, as the comparison of cost of moving by car for a person not having a travel-card is cheaper than buying a public transport ticket. One-per-car transport is oddly enough in many instances far less expensive. When more passengers travel in one car the disparity is even more eye-popping…

Looking ahead – in the pipeline – by the end of the year several infrastructure developments in the capital are to be completed. The last of them is the rebuilt P&R Stokłosy car park, opening scheduled on 15 January 2015 but likely to be brought forward. From my perspective it will shorten the daily distance covered by car by 3 kilometres. The one to be definitely opened before local election, due on 16 November 2014 will the central section of the second underground line, linking W-wa Wileńska Station to Rondo Daszyńskiego. Before it happens, streets closed for the period of construction are to be reopened; some wider, some narrower. This is scheduled for next Wednesday. Expect a photo coverage next weekend.

Government reshuffle

The expected course of events after former prime minister’s Tusk appointment to the office of the President of the European Council was his resignation from the position he had held for almost 2,500 days (the longest tenure in the history of Poland after 1989). A quite natural and in my humble opinion, most suitable candidate for his successor was Elzbieta Bienkowska, until recently deputy prime minister, in charge of ministry of infrastructure and development. Fortunately and unfortunately for Poland, Mrs Bienkowska will continue her career within EU structures as European Commissioner what precludes her from taking over as prime minister, a function she would definitely be eligible for (she’s got balls!).

Instead, Ewa Kopacz, former minister of health and speaker of parliament hitherto, was nominated as the new prime minister and entrusted the mission to form a new government. As my former boss told me, each new leader in an organisation, to justify they are the right person in the right place, needs to turn something upside down within the first months since taking up the new job. In the corporate world one needs a few months to get familiar with how an organisation functions before one initiates bringing about a change. In politics, before setting out to do the job, a new leader must elect members of its team. The mere change of a prime minister was hence out of question and Mrs Kopacz, to reinforce her position and independence in personal choices, had to do a reshuffle.

I dare to argue some of the nominations have been at least puzzling. Radoslaw Sikorski, despite my reservations regarding his (feigned) impeccable manners, was generally a decent foreign minister and especially well capable of representing Poland abroad. I doubt given his traits he has all makings of a good speaker of the parliament (what a demotion for him!) and I particularly have doubts how his successor, Mr Schetyna, will rise to the challenge… Nevertheless, Mr Schetyna, designated for one of the most prominent functions, is rising like phoenix from ashes. For years, as an informal opponent of Mr Tusk’s headship in the civic platform, he was on the sidelines of the Polish politics, for many bound to stay in the background until eventual withdrawal from politics. His sudden comeback is a great chance for him, but also, to put it mildly, an enormous challenge.

Mr Grabarczyk in charge of the ministry of justice… sounds ludicruous… I particularly dislike the chap (as I not tend to like people who hold their head up high) and if there is a person in the Civic Platform that could embody hubris and arrogance the party has recently stood for, Mr Grabarczyk can serve as an excellent example.

Another would-be minister who in my subjective opinion might not be the most qualified candidate, is Maria Wasiak, the new head of ministry of infrastructure and development. The very ministry, by dint of intricacy of issues it deals with, needs to be run by a person who is not only competent, but also, as Mrs Bienkowska, have balls. She was the CEO of Polish State Railways since 2011 (acting since 2010) and I do not see a significant turnaround in the workings of the Polish Rail Transport, although things could have been far worse and choice could have been far worse, given media speculation of Mr Nowak’s comeback…

I wish the new ministers all the best in their new roles, bearing in mind for some the tenures will be short. When I look at the make-up of the newly formed government, I hold the view it has been brought together to last out until the next election. And because most likely it will be less efficient then the one headed be seasoned prime minister Tusk and with fewer competent experts, odds of PiS winning the 2015 parliamentary election have just risen. Mr Tusk and Mrs Bienkowska have already made their leaps forward and jumped into EU-marked lifeboats. I am pretty sure they will foster our interests there (keeping in mind their mandate is to primary represent interests of all EU members), but Civic Platform’s strength in the Polish politics is bound to wane without them on board…

Against the Gods

Got the book by Peter Bernstein as one of farewell gifts when leaving the employer in late July. I pledge it has taken me a while to read it from cover to cover. The book, although worthwhile, is not actually immensely gripping and anything but breath-taking, albeit I realise I might not be the perfect target reader.

The content of the book revolves around manifold dimensions of risk and its presence in humans’ lives. Uncertainty regarding what the future holds has kept humans company since origins of the mankind, however centuries passed by before this uncertainty was quantified and gave rise to the concept of risk.

Uncertainty of future outcomes is an indispensable part of life, however sources of it are a matter judgement. You can put down future events to luck, fate, God’s hands or to mathematical probability. Depending on how you approach uncertainty, you may handle it in several ways. If you believe what lies ahead can only hinge upon luck, fate or God, you can only sit on your hands and wait for what future brings. However, if you put faith in existence of any rational root, presence of likelihood, you can harness tools to manage risks you come across. The concepts of risk management evolved with time, as people began to give credence that they need not to solely rely or luck, faith and Gods. Thanks to this risk could be quantified and thus ready to be handled…

The book, among many concepts highlights some that are pivotal in understanding economics on every-day level and deserve to be mentioned here…

1. Insurance is the price to pay for taking away uncertainty. Insurance premium as a matter of principle must be higher than probability of adverse event against you insure taking place. It is not only about an insurer’s profit. The case is that a humans are usually risk-averse and prefer a small, but certain loss (insurance premium) to a small probability of a big loss.

2. The bigger the sample, the more likely it is to reflect reality. The nature generally follows normal distribution. The two sentences above are clichés, however they can be employed to manage population. As the author argues, in the past there were concepts that birth regulation should ensure that only most intelligent, clever, beautiful people should proliferate to make the society in next generations more valuable… In practice, without any regulations, it works the other way round, namely the underclass have more children…

3. Volatility and uncertainty are highly correlated. Oddly enough, markets are placid when risk tolerance is high, but when market participants turn risk-averse, price fluctuations intensify…

4. Derivatives itself are not evil, but they are one of useful in risk management. It has to be noted the book was written long before 2008…

5. Although the concept that decision-makers act rationally underlies many economic theories, practice reveals the perfect world does not exist; the prospect theory justifies why this happens. In effect, people’s choices can easily be affected by their perception of the situation, which in turn can be easily manipulated…

6. Carrot, contrary to many theorem, works better than stick. Truth be told, I forgot why exactly, but maybe if this thread is left unsaid, it will prompt somebody to reach for the book…

If I were to recommend the book for reading, I would be in two minds. It definitely deserves credit for interdisciplinary character. It makes several references to religion, psychology, sociology, philosophy, mathematics, statistic and history. It actually is a handbook of risk management history, putting stuff risk managers deal with every day into historical perspective. It rather broadens horizons than introduces new concepts.

The book can be, however, an excellent read for economic laymen. It is written in a clear language and might help one familiarise with concepts I dwelled on during my studies. It should be much more interesting for somebody coming across some economic theories for the first time than to me… As for the drawback, I see one evident – it was written long before the onset of the 2008 - ??? financial crisis (its author died in June 2009, aged 90) and fails to incorporate lesson to economic reasoning learnt from the crisis in terms of risk management.

Next week’s break from blogging will be sponsored by my ‘duty’ to be off for most of the weekend…

A leap forward

I could find no other idiom to fit better what nomination for European Council President for prime minister Tusk is. In Polish, the phrase ucieczka do przodu, has a slightly ambiguous meaning, since it denotes a situation in which somebody take steps to be better off, but also in order to evade troubles or shirk responsibility (this is what he also does). The proposal to entrust Mr Tusk one of the most prestigious positions in EU administration fills me with pride, but also brings to mind some ponderings upon the impact of this nomination on Mr Tusk’s career and on Polish politics as a whole.

No matter if you embrace or reject him, Mr Tusk will go down as the first prime minister in democratic Poland to have been re-elected and to have held the office for at least seven years (or almost two terms). He cannot be denied drive and charisma thanks to which he has headed his party for many years, but the same traits helped him eliminate dissenters inside the grouping. His speeches were compelling and millions of Poles fell for them, although time proved many of his words had been hollow. He attained a lot in the Polish politics, he and his party after seven years of being in power have grown so complacent that from some point the only natural direction of their evolution has been downhill. Poles have become kind of fed up with policy of lukewarm water, pursued quite well and although the country is run ‘up to the mark’, some kind of displeasure pushes them towards a change…

The opportunity to take up a prominent EU seat is the one which ought not to be missed. If Mr Tusk seizes it, he will get his last chance to step down in glory. After the next parliamentary election he would eventually step down in disgrace, no matter if he won the election, only as the lesser of two evisl, or if the winner was Mr Kaczynski.

The move leaves Mr Tusk’s party devoid of charismatic leader who used to be in charge of it from the very beginning and kept it together for years. Many candidates will surely have designs on his position, however I dare to suspect cards have long been handed and wait to be unveiled, so his successors have been designated and wait to take charge… The Civic Platform after Mr Tusk’s departure to Brussels might equally well emerge stronger, reinforced by the success of its many-years’ commander-in-chief, or might fall apart, dragged down by chieftains scuffling for headship.

The opposition in unison congratulated Mr Tusk on his success as this in fact is primarily a distinction for Poland and even Mr Kaczynski expressed his backing for the prime minister’s candidacy. Politicians from all parties are probably silently closing ranks before contingent early elections. For all actors of the political arena in Poland accelerated parliamentary elections might mean a blessing as well as a curse. All of the sudden they may either benefit from low support for the ruling party or fall victim of Mr Tusk’s promotion which might bolster up the position of his party.

Time will tell how things shape up in Poland, but today, I am immensely proud a Pole will head one of the EU institutions. For Poland it is a well-deserved position and Mr Tusk, let’s face the truth, is one of few Poles who could be short-listed for such job, despite some shortcomings, e.g. his insufficient command of foreign languages which was mentioned several times. I cannot imagine Mr Miller or Mr Kaczynski or any of the prominent politicians from the opposition not even holding such position, not because of their incompetence, but seeing them striving for being considered as a candidate, rubbing shoulders with European leaders is beyond my imagination…

Like tomorrow doesn’t exist…

Was curious to hear yesterday in the radio about an article in Gazeta Wyborcza by its correspondent to Riga, capital of Latvia. The piece of writing mentioned in the press review turned out to be a just short story with quite astounding purport.

To sum up, as the author claims, Riga, this year enjoying the status of the European Capital of Culture. One event follows another, the carnival goes on, the Latvians live it up and make the most of the life, before a disaster aborts the festival. Inhabitants of Riga are deeply convinced Putin’s fifth column waits round the corner, ready to intrude into Latvia, as they invaded the Ukraine. The journalist argues an equation mark between Latvia and Ukraine is illegitimate since Latvia, unlike Ukraine, is a member of the EU and NATO and Putin would not dare to attack the military alliance because deep down he and his administration realise they would be defeated by united armies of NATO. Such arguments do not persuade the Latvian interlocutors who point out the Russian president is immensely unpredictable and ingenious and Russians as a rule do not let up.

Whenever hearing about Russian minorities in Baltic countries when the Russian parliament enacted a law entitling the Russian authorities to take every step to defend rights of mongered Russian minorities beyond the borders of Russia, contingency of Russian army stepping in to Latvia seemed incongruent. I had in mind the same argument – Putin would not dare to attack NATO, as it would mean a suicide for him. A few months later, after the Malaysian civil airplane was shot down and given how situation in Eastern Ukraine unfolded, I have changed my mind. Putin might come to a point when, after losing the battle for Ukraine and after suffering other prestigious defeats, he might have nothing to lose. In such situation, i.e. when you are bound to lose everything when you give up but if you take action you may either also lose everything or win something back, placing a dicey bet is economically justified.

The article draws a parallel between what goes on in Latvia and the summer of 1939 in Poland. Three quarters of century after the outbreak of WWII I wonder how it felt like in Poland in August 1939. The war was in the offing, its onset was just a matter of time. There was something in the air, probably the gut feeling something was inexorably about to end soon. Would anyone share the memories of their parents or grandparents?

Let’s figure out how people behave when they realise the end of something draws near and is inescapable. As the history proves they try to relish on every moment, cherish the life and quite frequently indulge in debauchery. Oddly enough, this sinful picture grossly contrasts with Christian commandments. For some reason, God-fearing people rarely pray, go to church to confess their sin ask for penance or beg their fellow men for forgiveness for the harm they have done them. Conversely, they push salvation away from themselves…

If I were to face such situation, from today’s standpoint, I would keep on living the way I do. I have no influence on what the fate brings. Orchestra on sinking Titanic kept doing its job until the very end. Business as usual, one would say and this strikes a chord with me.

Oddly enough, five years ago Mr Tusk and Mr Tusk strolled down the pier in Sopot before commemorations of 70^th anniversary of WWII. Today relations between Poland and Russia are, to put it mildly, tense, but just like five years ago I am glad in have the luck to live in peace.

Relief from the heat

The summer of 2014 in Poland will not probably go down in the history of as remarkably hot, sultry, rainy or stormy. Temperatures so far have been slightly above long-term averages, precipitation not abnormal. For the record, weather summary of the period from 14 July 2014 to 13 August 2014 on Warszawa Okęcie weather station from excellent ogimet database is presented on the screenshot below.

One can easily notice no temperature records have been broken, with summer-time high below +33C, contracting to +37C recorded on 8 August 2013. What is quite remarkable about the analysed interval is that over 29 consecutive days, starting 15 July ending 12 August the temperature has not dropped for a single moment below +15C. There were days when day-time highs were well below +25C, but there was no night nor morning when one could feel a really cool breeze. Slightly similar, yet reverse pattern could have been observed in early 2010, when from 1 January 2010 to 29 January temperature in Warsaw did not rise above freezing at all.

Such freak of weather had several implications. For holidaymakers staying in Poland it meant good news. Water in lakes during the period of prolonged heat warmed up to well above +20C. Even the Baltic sea near Polish shore was unusually balmy, with water temperatures reaching up to +18C or +19C contrasting to no more than +15C most people expect. From what I heard in some places north-easterly drifts brought in cool waters from the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, hence beaches were chock full of people unwilling to bath in the sea, cooler than air by some twenty degrees.

Those staying in town had to endure heat in their dwellings. The better insulated the building, the longer it takes for it to warm up and then to give off heat. After a fortnight of high temperatures many dwelling were warmed-up solid and even opening all windows for a night gave little relief. Fortunately, if one has windows on two sides of a dwelling, draught is an excellent method for cooling down the interior when temperature outside drops. The place most affected by the prolonged heat seems to be the underground, which each year at the onset of summer is the oasis of pleasant chill and then resists to give away heat.

I hope the current spell of typical Polish moderate summer, a blend of sunshine and rain showers, lasts long, nevertheless I do hope temperatures reaching near +30C return for one or two weekends. In late August or early September such daytime heat is accompanied by cooler nights and brisk mornings which take the edge off heat. The summer is slowly giving way to autumn. Lower temperatures and shorter days are not the only signs of it. Many trees begin to shed their leaves earlier than usually. The same happened last year in August and with hindsight it turned out in such way the nature anticipated a shift in weather from hot summer into gloomy autumn. If this year the same pattern is to repeat, may it also continue into warm late autumn and winter, as it did last year.

Beyond my comfort zone

The idiom my friend has come up with when she rang me to learn how I was doing in the New Factory probably best illustrates what I feel and what everyone feels during the first days or even weeks in a new workplace.

I had spent almost four years spent with the Employer. The first months, when I was a total freshman, were a period of intensive learning, then ensued some two years of further development. Around the middle of 2013 the Employer began to pursue a strategy of ‘controlled shrinkage’. My job began to be more repetitive, predictable and less challenging. My chair got warmer, my reputation was already established. I felt damn comfortable but at the back of my mind I knew the job was dead-end. In April 2014 I supposed the business line I had dealt with would be wound down by the end of 2015. Time proved I had been over-optimistic. It was wound down as of 31 July 2014, funnily enough on my last day of work. Had I stayed, I would not have been fired. In terms of my responsibilities I would have been demoted, in terms of salary I would have been none the worse off the change. Nevertheless, no other decision could have been taken. Holding down a cushy job makes sense when you are a few years before retirement and your goal is to merely get by, but not at the age of 26!

First impressions might be misleading, therefore I reluctantly share them. What I can definitely tell entering the unknown meant for me a huge role reversal. Back at the Employer, I passed as a very well-versed person and many people would turn to me to ask how to handle various stuff. Here, I have to ask about nearly everything and it will take a few weeks before I get familiar with all procedural issues. The New Factory’s scale of operations is much broader than that of the Employer. No wonder than I am daunted by it and have entered the phase of ‘cognisant incompetence’. This proves with the Employer I had reached the top of my learning curve, while the New Factory will offer many new opportunities to learn. The new job also requires me to be much more self-supporting than the previous one. At the Employer I could count on my manager’s advice, while here my manager only approves (or not) the outcomes of my work.

In some terms the change is beneficial, in others I will be missing my previous job. There is no ideal workplace and I have not delude myself I had found one. Actually every company in the industry I work for is more or less full of shit. Usually where the work is nice, there are no prospects. Where there are prospects, there is a pressure and one has to toil away.

A tough year ahead... Next weekend I am signing up for Level III and preparations are to kick off with the onset of September. Challenges at the new job, which might be at times time-consuming are not an excuse to take a year-long break in pursuit of the Charter. As examples of my older colleagues show, once you let up, setting out to finish the Programme is difficult and candidates are more likely to give up along the way. In a year… I hope to feel simply more comfortable…

My favourite weekly

I have been a regular reader of “Polityka” for almost a decade. Week by week, for all those years, I have never missed a single issue; even when I would go holidaying abroad, the recent issues would wait for me on my bedside table so that I could catch up. The case with newspapers is that the choice of what you read is affected by your views and in turn what you read reinforces your views.

The line of “Polityka”, if words such as “moderate”, “common-sense-oriented” are to averted, could be best described as leftist-liberal. In economic issues most of the weekly’s journalists advocate free market economy, however important social issues are not neglected and more leftist point of view is represented by Mr Zakowski. In social terms, the newspaper’s line is fairly leftist. It favours tolerance, autonomy of an individual and concept of division between the state and the Church, yet it is far from embracing extreme anti-clericalism or promoting gay marriages.

Unlike some of the weeklies, it is not affiliated with any particular party, yet by dint of its line, it locates somewhere between PO and SLD, yet with a tilt at the former and far from lunatic Twój Ruch whose agenda would seemingly best square with the line of the weekly.

The history of the weekly traces back to 1957. Soon after the first thaw in the PRL petered out, one of the government’s actions aimed at clamping down on sprawling liberal ideas. The weekly, meant to be hard-line soon became the most liberal of the party-supervised newspapers and with manifold tribulations enjoyed that status even in the darkest days of the next decades. Unlike other weeklies it has never drastically changed its line, despite changing times and changing governments it has held on to the same beliefs.

In the recent months when tone of the public discourse drifted right, I particularly appreciated to voice of reason flowing from the pages of “Polityka”. In many controversial issues the weekly’s journalists had the temerity to stand up for common sense and many times became dissenters since their attitude much differed from the new ‘mainstream’. When “Jack Strong” went to silver screen, the weekly published a series of articles dealing with morality of spies and loyalty to one’s own country which dwelled on ambiguity of moral assessment of colonel Kuklinski. After general Jaruzelski’s death it published a comprehensive article on the tragic life of the general in which it balanced out all his sins and merits of the late general. It was far from calling the general a hero or a traitor, but showed that neither condemnation nor glorification was what he deserved. The attitude towards People’s Poland is also far from right-wing vision of rewritten history – the weekly recognises Poland between 1945 and 1989 was a satellite country of the Soviet Union, yet still it was Poland, home to millions of Poles, built by millions of Poles who lived and worked in that system not to support communism, but for Poland, tragically disfigured by big politics. The weekly never openly attacks the Church, but has courage to politely criticise it and defends the value of secular state. When it came to abortion, in weeks following the outbreak of the recent scandal, it dedicated several articles to ethical issues indispensably linked to abortion. While defending the current law and the pro-choice stance, it published an interview with professor Chazan, thus giving its readers the chance to get to know the arguments of the other side of the dispute. The most recent issue, unlike almost all the other media, refrains from venerating the cult of Warsaw’s insurgents, but it delicately calls into question the sense of aftermaths Warsaw Uprising. It does not try to persuade the reader neither the uprising was a total disaster, nor that it was the most admired patriotic mutiny; it simply leaves the reader with arguments of both sides. Oddly enough, opponents of the sense of uprising hardly ever get the change to break through to mainstream media.

On occasion of the seventieth anniversary, my take has not changed – commemorate, but not celebrate. Death toll of two hundred thousand and one of the biggest capital’s of pre-war Europe obliterated with survivors driven out of the city give no reason to be cheerful.

I do hold dear the balanced look at many issues “Polityka” offers me, but I keep in mind the Biblical message of lukewarm Christians who would be turned away. By balancing out different opinions and not taking firmly anyone’s side, the weekly is lukewarm. I wish it had more courage to speak out against the mainstream.

Katastrofa prywatyzacji emerytur w Polsce - book review

Sixteen million Poles being contributors to the social security system have four working days left to choose, whether a fraction (roughly one-seventh) of their contribution will stay in the state-run pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security fund (requires no action) or be diverted into private-run pension funds (requires submission of declaration), participation to which will be since now discretionary (couldn’t I have stretched the sentence out even more?). So far less than one million Poles declared the will to have 2.92% of their before-tax salaries to be transferred to private-run pension funds under the public social security system. The interest in the last days when the choice is possible has been growing exponentially and it is estimated the number of participants of the second pillar of the pension system will exceed one million, still far cry from government’s estimations from 2013 which assumed almost twenty percent (or three million people) would plump for pension funds.

I have already made a choice and anyone who has been carefully reading this blog would easily guess what my decision has been. In discussions with my friends and colleagues I have openly admitted which option I had chosen, elucidated reasons and have not encouraged anyone to change their mind. I actually favour the government’s idea to let people decide what the uses to their contributions to the system will be. To a few persons I mentioned the book I had recently read. Some of them, mindful of my general free-market and liberal orientation, were kind of perplexed to hear me speaking highly about the book written by a leftist economist, the most avid critic of pension reform in Poland, professor Leokadia Oręziak.

The situation with a man whose opinions are well-shaped is that in 99% of cases you cannot easily categorise them as 100% liberal or 100% socialist (simplifying the issue to distinction between two main undercurrents). I cannot claim to be a pure liberal, nor to be a pure socialist, I simply lean towards common sense and put faith in ideas that stand to reason. Sometimes ideas which might appear liberal in fact are not. The concept is brilliantly illustrated in the book by highlighting the paradox of neo-liberal doctrine backing the power of unregulated market and positing cutting back on inefficient and evil government. The same doctrine when it comes to private-run pension funds does not hold back from asking the evil government for ensuring participation in private-run pension funds would be mandatory, i.e. the bad state must coerce the citizens to pay financial institutions for managing their pension accounts. I learnt many times liberal doctrine assumes a man should be responsible for their deeds and should be given autonomy to decide about themselves, while the socialist doctrine assumes people not necessarily know what is best for them, therefore the government should take care of them and decide what is good for citizens and for this purpose seize more of their income in form of taxes. The outcome of the reasoning is that obligatory payments to private-run pension funds under the public pension system is a manifestation of socialism. This has been long ago said by independent liberals from Centrum im. Adama Smitha.

“Who benefits from this [existence of pension funds]?” (Komu to służy?) is a tad populist question frequently posed by the opponents of pension funds. The book casts a new light on that matter. It does not take a genius to discover none of the developed countries coerced their citizens to pay pension contributions to private-run pension funds being a part of public social security system. Of course saving for pension is wide-spread there, but is not compulsory. People look after their future pension on their own or via employer-run pension plans. Almost all countries which implemented obligatory pension funds have in common that they went through a debt crisis and were relieved of some of their sovereign debts. Such was also the case with Poland. One other common feature is that the debt relief was combined with assistance of the IMF and the World Bank and was subject to following requirements imposed by these institutions. For me, from the perspective of financial services sector, it is quite natural a creditor has a distressed creditor on a string. Now the last question to ask is whether the IMF and the World Bank are doing a huge bail-out job disinterestedly. If you believe when zillions are at stake any action can be disinterested, then the fact the list of developing economies which struggled debt crisis and were aided by the IMF and the World Bank and the list of countries which adopted the pension system in shape similar to that implemented in Poland in 1999 is just a coincidence!

Mrs Oręziak in the second part of her book cracks down on common myths on private-run pension funds advocates of pension funds spread to persuade people to superiority of capital pillar over state-run PAYG system. She debunks these myths (I also dissected most of them along the way) in a way intelligible for an ordinary reader. This part of the book is particularly worthwhile, albeit personally I would rearrange some passages from the argumentation and leave out others.

Although our views on the flop of the public pension system managed by private entities generally concur, I disagree with some of the notions Mrs Oręziak points out.

I personally doubt the government is a good guarantor of future retirement benefits. It only has different tools to dupe citizens, if in need, and by nature is less greedy and less costly. Besides, you cannot compare a pay-as-you-go system in which money collected in form of contributions from the employed flows to retirees as their benefits to a system in which payments are invested in financial assets, as returns on each of them depend on different factors.

I cannot agree if Poland had held on to defined benefit system, instead of shifting to defined contribution system, future pensions would have been higher. You cannot circumvent the proportion between the employed and retirees; you can only change the apportionment of income between the two groups. Poland needed the pension reform in 1990s, but it would have been sufficient to deeply reform state-run social security system to ensure it is balanced in the horizon of many decades but inclusion of private fund managers to the system was needed like a hole in the head.

It should not be taken for granted that the government will bring citizens a higher pension than risky financial market. The amount of pension in the perspective of decades will be the same from either source, because both financial markets and public finances are tightly tied to a country’s economy and pace of its growth. The only difference is that returns of pension funds are more volatile than increment of benefit from the social security – somebody who relies on pension funds is exposed to a timing risk (i.e. the risk that prices of assets in which a pension fund invested drop shortly before someone pensions off).

I also do not share the view the discretionary participation to pension funds, to which the government encourages, through system of tax deductions, is detrimental. The governments of almost all countries are not capable of providing their citizens with high pension benefits and it does not hurt to put in incentives for employees to save on their own. The different story is that the institutions which offer such financial services are usually far too costly and inefficient, so faced with a choice, I would never sign up for such plan. I am in the luck to have sufficient financial knowledge to look after my finances on my own.

To recap, the book, although I would not praise it without reservations, deserves two merits. Firstly, it is written in a simple, clear language, which is of paramount importance if laymen are to make up readership. It clearly presents causations in economic reasoning, therefore a reader finds it easy to follow and comprehend why something works or does not work. Secondly, the book is very factual. It contains more footnotes than pages so that reader can easily verify accuracy and integrity of the book’s content, which given the scale of controversies surrounding the topic, add a lot of value to the publication.