Recordings for the record

SLD government in the first half of 2000s was sent under by the Rywin scandal. First PiS government was sent under by the arable-land corruption scandal leakage. The PO-PSL government began to fall apart after conversations of prominent politicians of the party, eavesdropped in a restaurant were published.

The joy of anti-PiSites that the unfolding KNF scandal with help overthrow the current PiS government is premature. Firstly, we still know too little about the story. Secondly, the government acts firmly and calmly (with some ludicrous exceptions) tackling the scandal (i.e. those who have no chance to be defended stand down, others where nothing can be proven at this stage, refute accusations). Thirdly, the circumstances of revealing  the scandal (why have they waited for more than half a year) and persons behind it (Leszek Czarnecki, not being crystal-clear businessman, nor his businesses and Roman Giertych, formerly a prime minister in first PiS government, since some five years, the chief barrister of the prominent no-PiS politicians) have all makings of a straightforward political game (this is it).

To assess political impact, find out what an average citizen who knows little about finance understands of it. An average Pole his little grasp of how banks are supervised, what the mechanism of bank bail-out is, why banks go to the wall, etc. They understand two basis threads: “fix up my crony with a job and pay 40 million and we’ll get off your back”. Voters have allergy with bribery and nepotism, the former being combatted by PiS, the latter being nurtured.

Commentators get outraged or excited by the notion of a bank being taken over for a single zloty. The world of finances has seen such transactions, such as Barings bank being taken over by ING for one pound, or Banco Popular being taken over by Banco Santander for one euro. Such deals were co-ordinated by central banks and regulators for the sake of financial stability. The difference is must be underlined is that all aforementioned banks bought for a single currency unit had gone insolvent on their own. In KNF scandal, PiS wanted to use financial supervision authorities to drive Czarnecki’s banks (not actually heathly, but not yet under water) to bankruptcy and nationalise them (in other instances private capital had to aid).

The very outbreak of the scandal has already taken its toll at Getin Bank and Idea Bank. Both institutions raised the pricing of deposits offered to clients, to around 200 basis points above interbank market rates. This indicates the banks struggle to stem the outflows of deposits (and remind on their webpages with capital letters that deposits are insured under Bank Guarantee Fund) and I would to be surprised to see a run on Getin and Idea. If this happens, deposit withdrawals can be suspended and Czarnecki might be forced to file for insolvency of his banking businesses. If he goes under water, the question is who else he drags down.

The Independence Day musings

Last Sunday PiS was given a marvellous beating in the run-off of mayoral elections. The party’s candidates were turned down in nearly all cities, including strongholds of Kaczynski’s grouping such as Radom or Podkarpackie province. With Chelm (63 thousand residents) being the largest city where elected mayor hails from PiS, the ruling party has seen a middle finger showed by non-rural electorate. In provincial Poland, the party keeps faring well though.

Tomorrow is a bank holiday. Formally enacted three working days in advance, plunging into chaos most entities whose workings are not based on spontaneity. An additional day off was put forward and passed into law by lawmakers and their notary who have little notion about how real life functions and definitely have never had insight into how difficult running an enterprise is. This unwanted gift, being a blatant violation of basic rules governing legislative process in a civilised country where a government is a predictable lawmakers, comes in useful especially for those willing to get tanked up today evening and cure hangover tomorrow (pardon, celebrate the Independence Day in dignity). My workload is not going to diminish because of the additional day off, but delay in my remont (slowly moving forward) will be one day longer and I will have to stay overtime to make up for the time lost tomorrow (hopefully the weather gets clement). Those far worse off are the ones who had doctor appointments or court hearings scheduled for tomorrow and will have to wait several months for another ones. Everyone had known in advance 11 November would fall on Sunday in 2018, the additional day off could have been decided several months ago, our economy would have afforded an extra day, but would have been spared the accompanying chaos.

The bank holiday was not the only part of celebrations organised at eleventh hour. On Wednesday, as the mayor of Warsaw banned (ineffectively, but respect to court ruling is overriding virtue) the nationalists’ march, president Duda and prime minister Morawiecki staged their own one. The upshot was that the government had to negotiate a common event with the far-right organisations. In practice, though formally there was only on march, it got split up into politicians of PiS marching peacefully at the front, and a whole lot biggest group of neo-fascists (and ordinary citizens) chasing them (shortly after 4 p.m. prominent politicians made away from the scene in their limousines). The nationalists, predictably duped the government, as the march was meant to be devoid of several symbols which were visible. The good thing is that riots did not break up and acts of vandalism were sparse, if any.

My own perception and pursuit of patriotism do not square with flag waving. I define patriotism as paying taxes, not throwing rubbish anywhere else but to bins, looking after common property, observance of law, respect for fellow men, small deeds which make a community’s life more comfortable.

Actually such shameful outcome of Independence Day celebrations is astonishing given how pompous in terms of patriotism the ruling party is. The upside of the disgrace is that with every next misstep, with every little piece their screw up, the number of mobilised opponents of the party grows. In less than a year, the government of PiS might be a memory (though at the moment the most realistic scenario is PiS winning, but lacking absolute majority and bound to eat up its coalitional partner or buy off single deputies from other parties), yet this is too little to be cheerful. Even if the oppositional parties get their act together or rather the ruling party continues with its string of failures, victory of Koalicja Obywatelska is not enough. Firstly, the winners must not fall out over the power sharing. Secondly, they must come up with a comprehensive plan how to mend what has been spoilt by PiS since 2015. Thirdly, several millions Poles being avid believers of Kaczynski still live in this country and this is their homeland as well, no matter how horrific their mindset for non-PiSites is. Few reasons for joy, several reasons to pull up sleeves, lots of work lies ahead.

Odds and ends

Early days of November (and the last ones of October) brought over Poland a wave of anomalous warmth (on the same time Western swathes of Europe shivered). On Friday (2 November 2018) November heat record for Warsaw was broken (high of +19.2C vs. +18.9C measured on 1 November 2001); on the next day temperature record for the entire Poland was beaten (+24.6C vs. +23.5C on 2 November 1968). Conceivably some local records might be beaten in next days, as the hot spell, after a short weekend break, is about to continue until Thursday, but I doubt record-high temperatures will be seen, as days are getting shorter and the current of warm air flowing in from over Africa is waning.

Besides, forecasters are getting it wrong in their short-term predictions too often these days. The climax of the “heat wave” in Warsaw was foreseen to fall on 1 November, while the next day was meant to be some 3 degrees colder; eventually it went exactly the other way round. Today was meant to be a sunny and warm Sunday with day-time high of +17C, in fact the capital has not seen a single sunbeam, but it drizzled all day, temperature failed to climb above +12C. I had planned to close the cycling season today (spent Friday in the office so could not make the most the +19.2C), but as it turns out, I probably enjoyed the last ride on 13 October 2018 (which saw the day-time high of +21.6C).

I pedalled from Bielany south along the Vistula. Infrastructure for cyclists on the western bank of the river is well-developed and on most sections pedestrians and cyclists have their areas separated. Plenty of people were out to lap up what seemed to be the last weekend of summer.

It was the second time I crossed Vistula using the cycling precinct built beneath the roads of Most Łazienkowski, the bridge rebuilt and revamped after the blaze in February 2015. Thumbs up for this passage letting the non-motorised cross the river away from the traffic.

On my way north, on the eastern bank I made stopovers on several beaches. It was past four in the afternoon, yet still many folks were hanging around and catching rays of low-shining sun. They knew some six months of sparse sunlight and chill in abundance would have to pass before the comeback of warmth.

Further north the cycling trail swings away from the river and runs on the embankment. It was ten past five and temperature markedly fell. The number of cyclists on that section also declined, though maybe these areas are not as popular, especially in low season.

Heading back to my dwelling (no, not home, home is in Ursynów or at my parents’) I cannot wait to move out of (for some reason I feel the temporary place of residence at best lacks a good energy) – the setting sun shines in my face. Next year I promise to take much more trips by bike north of Warsaw. By early spring the remont will have been over, the flat will have been furnished. Sweet dreams…

On the remont front, the builders have brought their tools yesterday and tomorrow works kick off for good. The living room is now full not only of construction materials but also of tools. As works move on, it will also be full of rubbish and each Saturday will start with clearing up (I prefer to do it myself and have builders focusing on their work).

Traces of rewiring are seen in the empty kitchen. The first works here, after flattening the floors, will be renovations of walls. Then tile laying should ensue thereafter. On Wednesday I found a guy who will do kitchen furniture to me – the last thing to be arranged to ensure things move on smoothly down the line ticked off.

The snap of the toilet and the bathroom taken three weeks ago, but inserted here instead of the one taken today, as today’s pic was too blurred (nothing has changed since then, sadly, but as my friend commented, kibel jest, można mieszkać). Now a bit of patience and it will be lifted from ruins and become a cosy place to live.

Life-wise, I am trying to lift myself from being down in the dumps (this is not the relapse of depression, but a combination of factors that brought together get me down), but circumstances resemble headwinds rather than tailwinds...

The tide must turn one day

Have not kept you posted in the topic of tidings from the remont front. The builders who had promised to set off on 1 October, then on 8 October so when for the third time they explained themselves they were stricken by some setbacks with their previous commitments, my father made a few calls to his friends and found another crew, but they will (hopefully) kick off on 5 November and have estimated all works would last until Christmas. I consider this a miracle since on Friday I read in one of reputable dailies the best crew have backlogs for two years!

The fact the remont has gotten behind schedule should not take me aback, just like being double-crossed by the builders, an experience nearly everyone is familiar with. I have even learnt to live with frustration that so little is going on in my dwelling. My father has nearly finished (taking a break for the grandpa’s funeral period) the rewiring; electricity wires had been in such mess that according to dad it was a miracle a fire had not broken out in the flat; with the seller being accountable for the mess, as the wiring had been totally inconsistent with original documentation of the flat (glad to have hit it off with the property administrator).

Negativity has taken over me in recent days (or weeks). Whatever I get down to, whatever I handle, my head is full of scenarios of what can go wrong. Remont, especially if you do not decide to hire somebody to look after it and take that burden off your back and come up with solutions if things tangle up, is an endless streak of nuisances, a steep ascent uphill, a struggle against unreliable people. To finish this paragraph with a glimmer of hope, there were a few incidences when things went smoothly, to my surprise.

At work it is uphill as well, things to complain about are same as ever: excessive workload, poor organisation and unreliable workmates. Two last months of the year loom particularly ominous, as the imminent handover of client coverage and the merger will increase the work beyond the point in which one can control the whole mass of tasks to be duly done. Relief is said to be brought in 2019 and the prospect of better days is realistic.

Memories of the relationship terminated more than three months ago (in the flat-related haste I still have not fully got over it, rather I have drowned out the waterfall of thoughts in mind head) and family affairs, including the recent departure of my grandpa (which lasted a few days, since his body was emaciated, yet his heart remained strong for long) also do not help me reach the peace of mind.

I long for a blissful feeling of being carefree, a state I last experienced during the holidays in late May. Five months of being restless and restlessness are being transmitted to my body, causing continuous muscle tension, headaches, sleeplessness or constant drowsiness.

I have learnt to cope well with work-related stress. I have picked up a wonderful ability to cut off all affairs after crossing the doorstep of my office. Yet far more challenges need to be tackled outside office (where I spend around 50 hours per week, or 55 hours, if commutes are counted in) and time to handle them is not infinite. If I choose not to let up and deal with all the stuff I need to, little time I left for relax. This month I went out with friends to town twice (counting out two lunches out of office), took a 30-kilometre bike ride two weeks ago, went to the swimming pool five of six times and went to the cinema once. The rest of my time was dedicated to duties.

On top I need to get the grips with the feeling of being unfairly hurt by evil people and evil world which is not shaped the way I would want it to be. This feeling is not entirely new to me, yet the intensity with which it is hitting me and the extent to it is distorting my perception of what goes on around are disproportionate. These days I actually don’t feel like talking to anyone nor meeting anyone, I feel like clamming up and waiting out this sombre phase.

The imbalance in life must be a temporary state. I find consolation in prospects of a better tomorrow. One day the flat is refurbished and furnished, one day workload is within my capabilities, one day I wake up and have the comfort of having only to catch up with all things I lack time to do now, all pleasurable. I foresee that moment comes in four months. By then I have no choice but to grit my teeth and not give up.