Warming, warning!

Gone is the second decade of the twenty-first century. Time for summaries for weather / climate freaks. Climatologists use a 30-year window as a reference period, therefore with the advent of 2021, the 1981-2010 benchmark period gives way to 1991-2020 window. I hence take the opportunity to run some comparisons of average temperatures in Warsaw measured across decades.

I rely on official, publicly available weather data for Warsaw for years 1951-2020 and for earlier period, on a spreadsheet which I downloaded back in 2010 from a NASA website, but could not restore the link. The database I had come by then traces back to 1881, however lacks measurements from years between 1938 and 1950, hence the analysis is a bit patchy.

The first chart shows how average temperatures in specific months rose in last three 30-year reference periods. The trend of rising temperatures is clearly visible, with the average temperature going up by around 1 Celsius degree, comparing 1991-2020 to 1971-2020 average.

The second chart illustrates average yearly temperatures in 30-year periods. One clearly sees the 1961-1990 period was not warmer than 1881-1910, but the heating-up process actually began in 1990s and accelerated in the current century.

The third graph shows even more vividly the growth of average yearly temperatures decade by decade. I firstly took 30 years for temperatures to grow by 1 Celsius degree, but then the pace accelerated to alarming 10 years per 1 Celsius degree.

On the fourth graph you can clearly see the mean monthly temperatures have not risen markedly between the 1881-1910 and 1951-1980 reference periods, which means temperature growth was observable, yet its pace was not upsetting.

But the fifth graph compares two reference periods which are only 40 years apart (vs. 70 years apart on the fourth graph) and here the difference is clearly visible and reaches 2 Celsius degrees in some winter and summer months.

The last, sixth graph shows the change of mean monthly temperatures in Warsaw in 30-year periods which are a century apart. Oddly enough, the difference is in some months lesser than on the fifth graph (1960s and 1970s are said to be a temporarily colder period on Poland with frosty winters and inclement summers), but I draw your attention to how the gap is spread. Average temperatures rose markedly (nearly 2 Celsius degrees) in winter and summer months, while in late spring and early autumn months, the scale of warming is visibly smaller (less than 1 Celsius degree). I wonder what the factors behind such tendencies are.

In this note, I have attempted to provide you with some raw data, with scant purely statistical commentary. Conclusions should you draw yourselves!

Pandemic diary – weeks 44 & 45

Monday, 11 January 2021
Scarce number of vaccinations over the weekend (on average 2,000 doses per day) and reopening schools for the youngest pupils stir up the atmosphere. With such approach tackling the third wave will be more difficult. Majority of health service workers will not be immune by the time the virus spreads more rapidly.

Tuesday, 12 January 2021
Controversies regarding ways to register for a vaccination arise. From the coming Friday any person aged 80 or older will be able to sign up for a vaccination, either in a health centre, or through a helpline or via online patient account.
The problem is that health centres do not let people in, unless they have an appointment, while phone lines are congested.
The government’s helpline is likely to be congested (too many people trying to get through, too few consultants).
The only system which stands a chance of not crashing (or at least of being recovered at the dead of night) is the online patient account, which I do not find a piece of cake, let alone an elderly, scared person.

Wednesday, 13 January 2021
One positive tendency is the declining percentage of positive results. I wonder how come Poland is escaping the third wave. Even the Christmas gatherings and New Year celebrations seem to have not had a meaningful impact on new infections.

Thursday, 14 January 2021
The COVID-19 death meter hits 2,000,000. Those have been just officially registered deaths.

Friday, 15 January 2021
Registration for vaccinations for 80+ people commences. The system crashes for a while. Within first 36 hours 280,000 people (80+) register, over 1 million of young ones, including me, sign up as interested.

Saturday, 16 January 2021
Pfizer reports deliveries of vaccines to Europe will be diminished for a while, in order to boost capacity of its Belgian plant. This will impact the schedule of vaccination in Poland in 1Q2021.

Sunday, 17 January 2021
Today first people vaccinated in Poland three weeks ago receive the second dose. In a week they will be considered immune.
For the public it passes unnoticed, but a case of reinfection (6 November 2020 first positive test, 17 January 2021 second positive test, 4 January 2021 first dose of vaccine administered) is reported. This makes sad news.

Monday, 18 January 2021
Today the youngest children go back to school. Not a full-blown school opening as in early September, yet this will contribute to an increase in new infections in February.

Tuesday, 19 January 2021
For the first time since more than three months, the daily percentage of positive test results declines below 10% (to 9.98%). One swallow does not make a summer, but since many days the percentage is below 20%, a major progress since times when it ran at 40%.

Wednesday, 20 January 2021
The recent cold blast has contributed to considerable air pollution coming mostly from intense dwelling heating. Scientists claim smog can contribute to their death toll from COVID-19.

Thursday, 21 January 2021
The UK variant is officially detected in Poland. This neither impresses nor disturbs me. It has been here for several weeks, but due to restrictions has not spread significantly.

Friday, 22 January 2021,
Foresight bears fruits. With use of profil zaufany, I register my parents for a vaccination. On 10 March 2021 I have to drive them to Grójec (not a free slot in Warsaw and around by the end of March) for the first dose. A compulsory two-week self-quarantine also in the offing.

Saturday, 23 January 2021
Exactly a year ago the Chinese city of Wuhan was put on a stringent lockdown. Today the hotbed of the virus functions quite normally, while nearly the rest of the world struggles the pandemic.

Break-up & make-up

I have promised to write a longer post the break-up between my girlfriend and I. In the meantime the topic has been rendered outdated. We have decided to give ourselves a second try.

The decision wasn’t mine and I was not the one to reach out for the attempt to make up. At times I wonder whether such decisions as a matter of principle ought to be reversed, but I also keep in mind a Polish saying which says only a donkey doesn’t change their mind.

Crises hammer nails to coffins of weak relationships and solidify strong relationships. For the time being the relationship has proven strong.

We can draw on the first four good months, over which we have not quarrelled even once, we had mutual respect and seemed to be a perfect match. What went wrong then? To cut a long story short, this is not the right time for the diagnosis, as many questions are still being slowly answered.

As in case of each relationship crisis, two parties are always to blame (and I’m not about to quote a joke which says those are wife and mother-in-law). I need to work on myself and comprehend which of my traits had to be eradicated if I am to live under one roof with any woman and which are neutral and if are picked on, it is her fault, not mine.

I cannot pledge I feel a relief. There is fear of what future holds and uncertainty whether the relationship survives. Finally, I hold dear the universal tenet that upsides of a virus might prevail of downsides.

The pandemic and consequent isolation also change the perspective. Before the break-up was reversed, I had to carry on in absolute isolation, could not do what people used to do to get over in such situation. All forms of socialising were considered irresponsible. I believe, brushing aside the time necessary to get over, I would not reinstall Tinder for several weeks, because of the pandemic (when I was using it, the daily number of new inflection was never higher than 800).

I hereby for the record thank my friends: Kasia, Agnieszka, Marcin and Bartek who have spent hours on the phone keeping my company in that difficult time. Although they will not read it, they realise how grateful I am to them.

Pandemic diary – weeks 42 & 43

Monday, 28 December 2020
First representatives of medical staff were vaccinated in Poland yesterday. This marks a milestone in a fight against the pandemic, a symbolic one, but we are far from a breakthrough.

Tuesday, 29 December 2020
Now a little bit of pure maths, after 14,000 first doses of vaccine have been administered in Poland. If 100,000 jabs are given each day, it means 50,000 get immunity each day. Assuming optimistically that first people get immune to the virus 28 days after the first dose, or at the end of January 2021 and the process goes smoothly, 16.5 million Poles will have been vaccinated by the end of 2021. This too little for herd immunity to work.

Wednesday, 30 December 2020
The problem of children stranded at homes (they are unlawfully banned from moving about between 8:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. on weekdays), devoid of contact with peers, sick and tired of online learning, is getting more and more attention. Physical and mental health of youngsters has been wrecked by the quarantine.

Thursday, 31 December 2020
I thoroughly recommend watching this film to anyone interested in Polish politics. In its simplicity is masterfully depicts how badly my country has been run before and in the pandemic.

Friday, 1 January 2021
The illegal curfew was a calm period. The night was more silent than any usual night. Nevertheless, those who wanted to party stayed the night where they celebrated the beginning of 2021.

Saturday, 2 January 2021
Just for the record, yesterday my girlfriend and I broke up (actually she has taken that decision) – break-up during the pandemic means you act responsibly, you cannot take comfort in your friends, family, go and meet people, socialise and do other things which in normal times help people overcome their sorrow. More on it in a separate post, once I cool off.

Sunday, 3 January 2021
The first scandal of the new year is that some celebrities have been given a first dose of the vaccine, despite not being eligible for it (they had been told they would promote the vaccinations). My take on it is simple: vaccines must not go to waste. The other story is a lack of transparency in selecting candidates to be given the doses which cannot go to waste.

Monday, 4 January 2021
A short note on statistics – the reason why the number of total cases is underestimated is that once one member of a household is tested positive, all other, usually infected symptomatically, are quarantined. Ordered to stay at homes 7 days longer than the infected, they do not spread the virus, but are not included in the statistics.

Tuesday, 5 January 2021
The UK goes into full lockdown and on its first day registers nearly 61,000 new infections, which means 1 in 1,100 citizens is tested positive on this day. This is not a record-breaking figure yet. On 31 December 2020 in Czech Republic 1 in 628 citizens was tested positive.

Wednesday, 6 January 2021
The Czech Republic beats the aforementioned record and reports 1 in 620 citizens to be tested positive yesterday. This is an equivalent of 61,000 daily new infections in Poland, a figure never reported, yet conceivable to have occurred in early November 2020.

Thursday, 7 January 2021
As the minister of health says, social mobility during Christmas and New Year’s Eve / Day was as high as in summer of 2020. This should be reflected in the figures…

Friday, 8 January 2021,
The statistics in Poland do not indicate as a nation we have failed the exam in responsibility in terms of celebrating Yuletide. Two weeks have elapsed since social gatherings took place and the number of new infections is not markedly higher, as I feared it would be.

Saturday, 9 January 2021
The number of tests (carried out since the onset of the pandemic) per 1,000,000 citizens in Poland hit 200,000. My homeland ranks 26th out of 27 EU countries (Bulgaria keeps holding the last position and takes no effort to step up testing).
In comparison to other EU countries (with population exceeding 1,000,000):
- Denmark has tested every citizens nearly twice,
- the United Kingdom has tested once 86.5% of its population,
- Lithuania has tested 64% of its population,
- Spain has tested 59% of its population,
- Germany has tested 42% of its population,
- Czech Republic has tested 37% of its population,
- Hungary (with overtook Poland on 25 November 2020) has tested 29% of its population.
The gap in testing between Poland and other EU countries keep growing, despite larger number of tests in recent days.

2020 finally is over

Customarily, turn of the year is a time for summaries, a time to have a look at the quirkiest year in the lifetime of probably all readers.

The hottest topic in 2020, which dominated news headlines and turned lives of all of us upside down was the COVID-19 pandemic. As it was approaching the gates of Poland (officially, since I believe the first cases were active before 4 March 2020), I named it a classic example of a black swan. At first, we feared the unknown. That resulted in strict social discipline, which, with time and growing fatigue with restrictions, soon waned. We have learnt to live with the awareness of the virus and have developed the ability to shrug it off. The loosened approach to the allegedly retreating virus was, predictably, one of major causes why the second wave was in Poland quite deadly, but has taught us little anyway. To save those bleak days for posterity, I have kept records of the pandemic in a form of a diary (currently published in bi-weekly intervals) and will continue until the vaccines hopefully help take the strain off the health service and bring us back to normalcy.

In the personal life, this was the year I got familiar with Tinder. After 10 failed attempts I found a girlfriend, yet the relationship ended on New Year’s Day. A water to the mill to those who claim on Tinder you can mostly find people who have problems with personality. This is a topic for a separate insightful post, due in two weeks. I believe the break-up and all events in the run-up to it deserve to be put into perspective. Too early to write about it when emotions are running high.

Despite the pandemic, I had decided to get involved in charity. My zeal was quickly dampened and participation as a volunteer ended up with frustration and a grudge. Nevertheless, I still do not rule out I sign up for it this year, but only if the pandemic eases.

Home office, which by 11 March 2020 was an occasional privilege, has become the order (or rather ordeal) of the day (not a single day spent in the office since then). I have no problems with efficiency, focusing on work, ergonomics (I have invested in a top-of-the range chair) nor with separating private and work time. But I do miss direct contact with people and I am sick of staying all the time at home (there was a time when I slept at my girlfriend’s place and came home to work only which gave some relief) which no longer is an asylum and a place of rest. My employer has already told me after the pandemic is gone, I will work 2 days in office, 3 days at home. This looks like the first and foremost reason to look for a new job, which would give flexibility, instead of forcing me to stay at home to bring savings to my employer.

In 2020 I wrote little about politics, especially I have not mentioned my participation in the anti-government march in Warsaw on 30 October 2020, which was attended by approximately 100,000 participants, but just like open-air protests with face masks, has not contributed to increase in COVID-19 spread rate.

My outlook for 2021? The first milestone, whose date remains unknown would be the day four weeks after my parents are vaccinated. The fear of their mental and physical health will be then gone and I will not have to choose between meeting people and visiting them which was the case over the entire 4Q2020 (I had to fork out some cash for a PCR test before Christmas). As the pandemic eases and after I get over the post break-up trauma, I will need to resume the lookout a life companion, which in practice means the Tinder experience will start over.

And I hope by the end of 2021 I also get vaccinated. I will do that:
- out of care and responsibility of those whose life or health is at particular peril,
- to help those who cannot run their businesses, lost their job, income or wealth because of the pandemic,
- to accelerate the recovery of people whose mental or physical health has worsened on account of the virus.

Pandemic diary – weeks 40 & 41

Monday, 14 December 2020
After the final weekend of Szlachetna Paczka, I will redirect you to another post, where I dedicate a separate paragraph to how it was handled amid the epidemic.

Tuesday, 15 December 2020
I met my former workmate. She and her family went through COVID-19 (and were tested) in October. Fortunately, none of them suffered from complication. Now she proudly holds antibodies and lives with all inconveniences of the daily grind, but without a fear of getting infected nor infecting somebody for a while.

Wednesday, 16 December 2020
Looking at how people are relaxed about the sanitary regime, I fear Christmas gatherings will result in excess funerals in January. After my exposure to around ten of my volunteers without face masks during the Szlachetna Paczka final weekend, I decide to get myself tested (PCR test) before visiting my parents.

Thursday, 17 December 2020
All of a sudden, the government announces a Narodowa Kwarantanna (by no means a legal term) in effect from 28 December to 17 January. Worth noting that:
- scope of restrictions differs from the one set forth in early November, in particular no limitations in moving about, except for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, are envisaged,
- the full lockdown was to be introduced if seven-day trailing average number of daily new infections was in excess of 27,000, while today it officially runs at 11,000,
- all restrictions are illegally imposed with a decree (rozporządzenie) rather than with a bill (ustawa).

Friday, 18 December 2020
Over the recent days one could hear rumours that doctors and medical staff do not rush to sign up for vaccinations against COVID-19, which are due to start before the end of the year. Three of my primary-school or high-school friends declare they will aim to get vaccinated possibly soon.

Saturday, 19 December 2020
I grow tired of hearing of deaths from COVID-19, not of people I have personally known, but of my friends’ friends, my family’s relatives etc. But I must not escape it mentally. The virus is around, it continues to be a deadly peril, one must not shrug it off.

Sunday, 20 December 2020
The “new variant” of the virus which has been detected in the UK and transmits more rapidly emerges as a yet another reason for concern. Is another, far more horrific phase in the offing?

Monday, 21 December 2020
Despite markedly lower number of new infections, death toll remains high (only some 25% lower than 3 weeks ago, while new infections declined by 60%). Doctors say people report to doctors with symptoms of COVID-19 too late, are not tested (which accelerates admission to hospitals), land in hospital ward too late, which decreases their chances to survive.

Tuesday, 22 December 2020
I get myself tested voluntarily, to ensure safe Christmas, especially after the final weekend of Szlachetna Paczka. The experience of being examined by people looking like astronauts is somewhat quirky. The very process of swabbing (for a genetic, reliable test, preceded by six days of nearly full self-isolation) is not as unpleasant as some people describe, yet I immediately came into tears and felt like throwing up.

Wednesday, 23 December 2020
Those who meet at Christmas tables (hopefully in possibly small circles) will have yet another reason for quarrelling – approach to the virus and preventive measures taken has emerged as another divide line in the society. With a negative results of the test performed yesterday, I set off to my parents. Since early October I met with them two times only, to protect them.

Thursday, 24 December 2020 – Saturday, 26 December 2020
The time of peace, serenity, scant testing and not thinking about the virus. Hopefully after Christmas we will turn over a new leaf in our fight against the pandemic.

Szlachetna Paczka - a bitter coverage

I first hatched the idea of becoming a volunteer around June and followed it out in July. Worth noting that was the time the virus was retreating and I admit not to have predicted the epidemic would go in overdrive until late autumn as it did.

I was one of the first volunteers to have signed an agreement with Stowarzyszenie Wiosna (which runs Szlachetna Paczka) and to have gone through an online onboarding. Back at that stage I noticed poor organisation (my online training was called off and put back two times) and general deficiency of people. It seems even while the number of daily new infections was three-digit, some volunteers have decided not to sign up this year, to protect their or their family members’ health.

Beginning of my area taking shape also were sluggish. Recruiting volunteers was not an easy task. On top, even while more than ten volunteers were lined up, we could not kick off with first tasks, due to moor management skills of our area leader.

I have moaned about her a lot while talking to my girlfriend, parents or friends and don’t feel like going on about her again. She lacked managerial skills, failed in delegating tasks, even if she assigned tasks, did not enforce their completion. She did not keep a grip on all stuff she should have had control over as a leader.

Moreover, she and several area leaders from Warsaw gathered in early October to party hard and have infected one another with coronavirus (not a joke, a confirmed story from a person who decline to attend the party).

Consequently, we lagged behind with collecting histories of families which could have become beneficiaries of the initiative. Pandemic did not facilitate the task, as potential beneficiaries had so sign personally consent for transfer of their sensitive personal information to Szlachetna Paczka, which was impeded by the general social distancing. Finally, we got consents from around 35 families, short of our target of 75 families.

The next stage, visiting families, also was pursued behind schedule. Visits at people’s dwellings paid in the first half of November, coincided with the peak of new infections. With hindsight, I am asking myself what had prompted me to risk my health by visiting families which have eventually not been taken on.

The mechanism of verification whether a family deserves a wise aid does work well. For such reason around two third of families visited are turned away. I interviewed four families and have not decided to take on any of them. The first one in terms of approach to life was exemplary, but had a discretionary income of PLN 1,500 per person in a household, far too much to receive help. The second one was a mother bringing up a son, working, yet doing absolutely nothing to improve her life and waiting until somebody else comes and gives them gifts. The third one was a pure pathological family with little motivation to work, but with two TV sets in their council flat and a Netflix subscription. The fourth one was another mother raising two sons on her own, living off social care allowances, as she was jobless for too long to be eligible for a dole and took little effort to find a job.

A week before the final weekend everything was falling apart. We were in process of arranging our warehouse, lacked sponsors to provide us with food, lacked a lorry to transport bigger items and lacked a logistics plan. I was responsible for logistics and after a week of sleeping five hours a day and getting behind with work (home office facilitated sharing time between work and the Paczka) everything, except catering (closed restaurants are not that eager to get involved in sponsorship) was straightened out.

These days sanitary regime is a must. Szlachetna Paczka had procedures in place and allegedly had some contingency plans for the final weekend to be pursued in case of full lockdown. Procedures fortunately were obeyed at least when donators came to deliver parcels, but as no guests were around and volunteers were in the warehouse (indoors) masks were off. I kept away from the group of over ten people staging a covid party indoors, so when I was not carrying parcels or driving them to families, I stayed outdoors with two other volunteers who, like me, were afraid of keep company to our unmasked fellows (the shivered for two days). The day after the weekend I have purchased a genetic test at Medicover and I will be tested the day after tomorrow, long enough after exposure to the virus so that it is detected. Until now I feel fine, but I have not been in touch with any of the volunteers, so I do not know how participants of the covid party are feeling.

From what I heard from my workmate who was a volunteer at another district in Warsaw, sanitary regime was a theory out there was well, her common sense also told her to stay away from frivolous volunteers

Just like a year ago and two years ago, I was involved as a donator for families from Płońsk area. Yesterday I learnt in comparison to what went on in Płońsk, sanitary regime in Warsaw was exemplary. In Płońsk volunteers had no face masks, were keen on kissing and hugging donators, drink tea and treat them with a soup. Representatives of donators rushed to offload parcels, sign documents and hurriedly escaped the scene, outraged with gross irresponsibility of volunteers.

My general impression on what I was involved in is shaped mainly by the pandemic, which has taken away the entire joy of the initiative and brought in an element of fear. I am currently quite sensitive about how people abide by sanitary regime. I am fucking angry and frustrated with reckless behaviour of volunteers, who I call a bunch of brainless, f**king irresponsible morons (banda bezmózgich, j**anych, nieodpowiedzialnych debili). They helped some people, while put at risk life and health of others. I still can’t get over it. I am still livid at the mere memory of that carelessness, hazardous especially less than two weeks before Christmas, ahead of family gatherings. Ku**wsko wściekły jestem. Besides, I feel not comfortable about posting a coverage on facebook, on which everything looked out perfectly. Yet my intention was to propagate the initiative, not to spread bad word about the dark side of it.

It is too early for me to take a decision whether I get involved next year. For sure I will continue to be a donator, but if the pandemic does not wane considerably, participation as a volunteer is out of question. I am generally distasted after seeing the backstage of it, though still find the concept of the initiative and the wise aid commendable and worth being supported.

Have a healthy, responsibly lived through Christmas!