Doing overtime :(

Regular readers of the blog might recall some time ago I posted a write-up of numerous goings-on at work. Though things have settled down a bit, my workload remains excessive. As promised by my employer, I got my first overtime allowance for 1Q2023 (actually for February and March only). Not a large amount of money, net-of-tax a four-digit amount, with “1” to the left.

The rollercoaster carried on in early April, so I requested some overtime orders (a manager must order an employee to work overtime). In the first week of the month my request was approved, but in the week following Easter, when I had to toil away intensively for up to 12 hours a day and after knocking off I could not string a sentence together, my request was turned down. The refusal was justified by my managers by the supposed termination of exceptional circumstances which occurred in 1Q2023.

Fortunately, my jaw did not draw open for long, so without second thoughts I instantly came up with three ways out of the absurd situation. First – they keep on paying me for doing overtime. Second – they reduce my workload. Third – I reconsider my career plans. Here they were up to the task, since they offered they would like to choose between the first and the second option and revert to me with a proposal. It ended up with me being allowed to request overtime pay until the end of 2Q2023. They pledged afterwards my workload gets reasonable, a promise I put no faith in.

For the time being I am focusing on surviving by the end of 2Q2023 (no fortnight-long holidays due in late spring this year) and getting a compensation for the inconvenience of working far more than 40 hours a week.

The squabble over my overtime pay has also mobilised me to browse job advertisements for the first time since 2017 and do trying to find out what wages competitors offer. The outcome of short research was that I would find it hard to negotiate a basic salary at the par with my current one and give up on generous (above-market) bonuses (my bonus for tough 2022 was effectively my 13^th, 14^th, 15^th, 16^th and 17^th salary this year). The potential reward for much lower earnings could be potentially lower workload, possibly at the expense of handling tasks below my (pardon my lack of modesty – superb) competencies. Thus I have become a hostage of money…

The recent state of affairs has also made me reconsider priorities in life. I want the frequent sitting overtime to be a temporary measure, while in the mid-term, I prefer to renounce the overtime compensation (which will not make me much richer) and have more time for living my life, not sacrificing it to a callous corporation.

Next post in three weeks, since I am off to Wisła for the long weekend and the shortened working week.

What’s new in the neighbourhood – in 2023

In early April I learnt from a local newspaper the revitalisation of Park Cichociemnych, whose beginnings I documented nearly a year ago, is drawing to a close. The makeover has been slated by locals and sadly, the voices of disapproval do not come from regular nit-pickers, but reflect how the area has been botched up.

To start with, the revitalisation kicked off in 4Q2021. Eighteen months since the works commenced their end is not in sight, which is more than a shame. One could build a house from scratch and furnish it over such period, while here nothing is built, just a recreational area is redeveloped. Below some snaps taken on Easter Sunday late afternoon.

The peak of Górka Kazurka is still fenced off, while the very summit for no apparent reason has been spoilt with concrete, needed there like a hole in the head. Areas where the grass has been sown are also protected from pedestrians and pets…

The centre of the park so far does not seem to meet the definition of greenery. Arid ground, sand, concrete slabs, fences, a bench in the middle of a muddy swathe of land. It took a year and a half to reach that stage of redevelopment.

Having moved further west, I put my camera lens between the mesh to capture what in some time is to become a recreational area, with benches, bicycle racks, flowerbeds and lawns. So far such picture can be seen with the eyes of imagination only.

To counter- balance the griping with some upsides – the bygone car park by the Astaldi construction base has been ripped off – many square metres of asphalt have given way to earth. The only remnants of the construction site are the run-down guard’s hut and a rickety VW Transporter.

At the western edge of the park its designers resolved to locate a good dating hangout for teenagers. For some unknown reason the spot is far from any dwellings, but close to the tunnel of Warsaw’s southern bypass (humming traffic well audible there). Note I was too lazy to roam around the park, so I cycled...

Looking east towards ul. Pileckiego – the meadow between 2018 and late 2022 had been occupied by Astaldi and cleared just a few months ago. The nature now is to reconquer the area. Dwellers of the blocks of flats in the distance seem to have a beautiful slight from their windows, but note the proximity of the bypass tunnel, with fumes and noise 24/7 does not add to the spirit of the place.

The bonfire shelter, once quite close to Górka Kazurka, has been relocated into the middle of the nearby birch coppice. Definitely a proper bonfire spot ought to be surrounded by trees. On Easter Sunday the shelter played host to some inebriated Ukrainians.

In April 2022 I complained the dog playground close to the forest was closed off to locals. It was opened soon later and is a place I happen to visit with Mela. The only drawback of the place is its muddiness (a top layer of sand would help keep soil drier after rain).

Winter Timeline 2022/23

The passing winter, with the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, was definitely not expected to be cold. For several reasons everyone kept fingers crossed for a warm one and long-term forecasts pointed at above-average temperatures in central and eastern Europe. With hindsight – they have proven right.

After the coldest September since 2013, October 2022 came out as the sixth warmest since records began. Mean temperature in Warsaw reached +11.2C (vs. long-term average of +8.7C), but still was colder than October 1907 when temperature in Warsaw averaged out +12.9C and Octobers in 2000 (+11.6C), 1896, 1967 and 2019 (all +11.3C). October 2022 was also frost-free, just like in 2020, 2018 and 2017. Nevertheless, ground frosts were observed on four days (10^th, 12^th, 20^th, 21^st days of the month).

 

17 November 2022
Usually when the first frost is witnessed so late, it bites sharply. Such was the case in 2008, 2017 and 2018.

18 November 2022
First day of thermal winter, with day-time high below 0C and dreadfully gusty, chilly wind.

19 November 2022
The first snow this season. Just a light dusting of it, yet enough to take road clearance services aback. Roads are icy in the morning. Then ensues some glorious sunshine.

20 November 2022 – 21 November 2022
Two days with lovely sunshine, really chilly mornings and day-time highs close to the point of freezing.

22 November 2022 – 23 November 2022
Quite chilly and cloudy, with temperature close to 0C.

24 November 2022
Wake up to see the first proper snow this season. The flurry continues until afternoon, however does not cause anticipated chaos on the roads.

25 November 2022 – 30 November 2022
Abhorrent gloom takes over. Not a moment of sunshine, temperature not much above freezing most of the time. Dark and damp…

November 2022 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +4.2C (vs. long-term average of +3.8C). First half of the month was extraordinarily warm, while the second one, far colder than usual. Stats:
- month-time high: +15.5C on 8 November 2022,
- month-time low: –7.7C on 21 November 2022,
- the warmest day: 2 November 2022 (daily average of +11.5C):
- the coldest day: 19 November 2022 (daily average of –3.7C)
- number of days with snow cover: 4,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 25 November 2022.

 

1 December 2022
The weather pattern from the last days of November continues.

2 December 2022
Getting even colder, markedly below 0C. In the evening a freezing drizzle at –4C takes over.

3 December 2022
Morning greets with a supply of fresh snow. Temperature stays negative over the day, so the snow lingers.

4 December 2022 – 7 December 2022
The dullest countenance of late autumn – temperature barely above 0C, chilly wind, humid air, intermittent rain or snow showers.

8 December 2022 – 9 December 2022
Two relatively bright days, after 16 days of absolute lack of sunshine. The weather finally lifts spirits.

10 December 2022
The last day on the verge of late autumn and full-blown winter. Close to 0C, light snow.

11 December 2022
Winter begins in earnest. It snows quite heavily all day. Conditions for moving around are quite nasty, yet the scenery is lovely.

12 December 2022
The flurry continues throughout the day, but is not as heavy as yesterday. The abundant snow showers come ahead of the first double-digit frost in 2022.

13 December 2022
Light winter with some little supply of fresh snow.

14 December 2022
The first utterly sunny day since over 3 weeks brings the first double-digit solid frost in 2022.

15 December 2022
More of the white powder has fallen overnight, but the end of the winter episode is in sight.

16 December 2022
Snow showers come during the day this time, causing some chaos during the pre-Christmas rush on the roads.

17 December 2022 – 18 December 2022
A cold, cloudy weekend, with one snow shower. Winter gets boring.

19 December 2022
Temperature overnight plunges below –10C for the second and last time this year to give way to a bright day with clear blue skies. Nothing heralds a disaster…

20 December 2022
The rain fell overnight in sub-zero temperatures, which means Poland wakes up to struggle with ice rinks everywhere. Moving about is perilous. Conditions get better during the day, as surfaces are cleared of black ice and the temperature rises.

21 December 2022 – 23 December 2022
A solid thaw takes over, with intermittent spells of sunshine and rain showers which accelerate the pace in which snow disappears.

24 December 2022
Customarily, Christmas Eve is gloomy, rainy and warm (i.e. with temperatures above freezing).

25 December 2022 – 30 December 2022
Late autumn continues. Usually skies are overcast, but moment of sunshine occur as well. Temperatures range from –1C to +11C.

31 December 2022
A big warmth comes up and the air gets balmier as midnight draws in…

December 2022 was normal. Average temperature in Warsaw was +0.6C (vs. long-term average of –0.1C). The month had a normal first decade, a cold second decade and a warm third decade. Stats:
- month-time high: +14.2C on 31 December 2022 (the warmest moment in December high since 2015),
- month-time low: –14.3C on 14 December 2022,
- the warmest day 31 December 2022 (daily average of +9.3C, 0.2 Celsius degrees short of the warmest New Year’s Eve recorded in 2021),
- the coldest day: 14 December 2022 (daily average of – 8.2C),
- number of days with snow cover: 14,
- the highest snow depth: 16 centimetres on 17 December 2022.

 

1 January 2023
I can only regret I spend the last days of 2022 and the first days of 2023 inWisła. Temperature in Warsaw soars to +18.9C (official readout from W-wa Okęcie station), beating the previous January record by more than 5 Celsius degrees and setting the new January warmth record for Poland. Clear blue skies and abundant sunshine do help.

2 January 2023 – 3 January 2023
Slightly cooler, yet still day-time highs come into double digits, cloudy.

4 January 2023
Temperature at dawn declines well below 0C. I sense such phenomena will be a rarity this month.

5 January 2023
Gloomy, rainy, windy, warm. Feels like November.

6 January 2023
Evening brings a snow shower. A blanket of wet white powder covers Warsaw, as the temperature nears 0C.

7 January 2023
Those who reside in Warsaw and get up early still have a chance to see the remnants of yesterday’s. They melt quickly…

8 January 2023 – 16 January 2023
Late autumn returns. Few moments of sunshine, some rain showers, unpleasant wind, damp air, temperature from +1C to +9C.

17 January 2023 – 20 January 2023
Colder, temperature barely above freezing, occasionally below. A prevalent form of precipitation is sleet. A month-long period of warmth draws to a close.

21 January 2023
A snow blizzard which begins at night seems more impressive than the one which hit on 11 December 2022, but its disruptive potential is lower, as temperature stays above 0C. Had it hit during the working week, a traffic paralysis would not have been averted. It ceases to snow early in the afternoon and the melt ensues.

22 January 2023 – 24 January 2023
Temperature barely positive most of the time, with air humidity exceeding 90%, owing to which it feels like –10C. Cloudy, with some sleet or snow falling.

25 January 2023 – 26 January 2023
Two first days with negative mean temperature this year. Still depressingly drab.

27 January 2023 – 28 January 2023
A tad warmer, with a light dusting of snow, which melts while falling on warmed-up ground.

29 January 2023 – 30 January 2023
Now some proper snow, which lingers for a few hours, since temperature is close to freezing, but eventually disappears.

31 January 2023
Finally a bright day, with two hours of proper sunshine, something the capital of Poland missed for a fortnight.

January 2023 was extremely warm, actually the second warmest since measurements are taken, after January 2007 (mean temperature: +3.7C), but ahead of January 1983 (mean temperature: +3.2C). Average temperature in Warsaw was +3.4C (vs. long-term average of –1.5C). Stats:
- month-time high: +18.9C on 1 January 2023 (the previous record, +13.8C set on 12 January 1993, broken, I believe despite the global warming it will take two or three decades before the next January warmth record is set, I regret not experiencing it),
- month-time low: –3.9C on 4 January 2023 breaking the record of the highest January’s low, i.e. –4.7C set in 1983 and touched in 2020),
- the warmest day: 1 January 2023 (daily average of +15.0C, also the warmest January day in Warsaw since records began),
- the coldest day: 29 January 2023 (daily average of –0.7C, i.e. just like in January 2020, when the coldest day had mean temperature of –0.5C, the coldest day was warmer than long-term average temperature for the whole month),
- number of days with snow cover: 5,
- the highest snow depth: 5 centimetres on 21 January 2023.

 

1 February 2023 – 2 February 2023
The last days of improper winter – still with positive temperature, rain, sleet and some sunshine.

3 February 2023
The next winter episode begins around 3 p.m. with a proper snowfall. Temperature gets negative.

4 February 2023 – 6 February 2023
Winter at last, all sort of weather, including light snow showers, freezing fog and glorious sunshine, at times windy. Single-digit frost all the time.

7 February 2023 – 9 February 2023
Day-time highs bring light thaw. At least bright, most of the time sunny. Snow nearly fully melts.

10 February 2023 – 11 February 2023
It thaws out for good, cloudy, with some instantly melting snow or sleet.

12 February 2023 – 15 February 2023
No incidences of negative temperature. At times sunny, at times rainy, usually windy. The weather drifting between winter and spring.

16 February 2023
Morning brings temperature of –4C and picturesque hoar frost. Then it warms up abruptly to +7C in the afternoon. Sunshine in abundance.

17 February 2023 – 19 February 2023
Exactly like at that time in 2022, a cyclone from above Scandinavia brings destructive gusty winds (above 100 kmph) and downpours.

20 February 2023
A very light dusting of slow fallen overnight disappears quickly. Then snow falls during the day, but melts immediately while air temperature stands at +2C. Gusts of wind still strong.

21 February 2023 – 23 February 2023
Cloudy, but not rainy and moderately warm (with one night-time frost). Beware though, another short winter episode is in the offing!

24 February 2023
The last warm day this month and rainy too!

25 February 2023
A day with a very changeable weather – from snow and sleet to full sunshine. Above freezing.

26 February 2023 – 27 February 2023
A tad colder, cloudy, with a little flurry.

28 February 2023
The long-awaited sunshine comes over, at the expense of large temperature fluctuations.

February 2023 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +1.4C (vs. long-term average of –0.4C). Stats:
- month-time high: +9.9C on 18 February 2023,
- month-time low: –8.0C on 6 February 2023 (so far no double-digit frost in 2023),
- the warmest day: 21 February 2023 (daily average of +6.6C),
- the coldest day: 6 February 2023 (daily average of –5.3C),
- number of days with snow cover: 10,
- the highest snow depth: 6 centimetres from 4 February 2023 to 6 February 2023.

 

1 March 2022 – 3 March 2023
While in south-western edge of Poland I enjoy full sunshine, Warsaw is under the blanket of fog or clouds. Temperatures go through 0C two times a day.

4 March 2023 – 5 March 2023
Chilly, with alight dusting of snow and nasty wind. Negative temperature most of the time.

6 March 2023
Some moments of glorious sunshine follow the coldest morning this year. Then it begins to snow in near-zero temperature and snows, at time heavily until late evening.

7 March 2023 – 8 March 2023
The same pattern - I wake up to behold a white blanket covering the capital of Poland. It disappears by midday, melted by sunrays, as temperature tops +5C.

9 March 2023
It snowed all night, it snows nearly all day. Temperature on the verge of freezing, so some of the snow lingers.

10 March 2023
It snowed at night, but the white powder disappeared soon, as temperature hit double digits for the first time since early January.

11 March 2023
The weather continues to be changeable – quite warm morning with drizzle gives way to snow showers in the afternoon.

12 March 2023
A sunny, but windy day with day-time high just below +5C. Have we seen the last of the winter?

13 March 2023 – 14 March 2023
Markedly warmer, with double-digit highs and sunshine on the latter day. Mid-term forecasts of the coldest March since 2018 are giving way to a prospect of abnormal warmth in the second half of the month.

15 March 2023
Back to pre-wintry weather. Still quite windy.

16 March 2023 – 17 March 2023
Twelve hours of sunshine each day, at the expense of morning frosts and with single-digit afternoon highs.

18 March 2023 – 21 March 2023
Rather sunny and warmer – night-time lows above 0C, day-time highs above +10C.

22 March 2023
All of a sudden – Warsaw is haunted by a night-time frost, but then temperature skyrockets to double-digits despite overcast skies.

23 March 2023 – 26 March 2023
Cloudy, at times rainy and warm – temperature above +5C over the entire period (on two former days nearing +20C), but winter has not said its last word.

27 March 2023
Biting chilly arctic wind makes +5C feel like –5C. Sadly, the assault of spring was short-lasting.

28 March 2023
A day with average temperature below –1C. Five degrees below zero at dawn, snow showers on and off during the day, with white powder lingering for an hour or two.

29 March 2023
Another cold morning, but this time followed by a sunny, lengthy day.

30 March 2023 – 31 March 2023
Warmer for a while, yet below +15C, spells of sunshine interspersed throughout rain showers.

March 2023 was warm. Average temperature in Warsaw was +4.5C (vs. long-term average of +3.2C). Stats:
- month-time high: +20.0C on 23 March 2023 (on the same day as in 2022),
- month-time low: –9.0C on 6 March 2023 (just like in 2022, year-to-date low is set in March),
- the warmest day: 24 March 2022 (daily average of +12.8C),
- the coldest day: 6 March 2023 (daily average of –2.3C),
- number of days with snow cover: 5,
- the highest snow depth: 3 centimetres on 9 March 2023 and 10 March 2023.

 

1 April 2023
The last day of early spring. Bracing for the last touch of winter.

2 April 2023 – 6 April 2023
Winter (hopefully) gives its last gasp. Temperature between –5C and +8C. Most of the time gloomy as in November, but with some spells of sunshine. Worth noting –5.2C low measured on 5 April 2023 was the lowest temperature in Warsaw in April since 2003, while 5 April 2023 with average temperature of +0.1C was the coldest April day in the capital of Poland after 1950.

I hereby terminate the winter timeline, but according to long-term forecasts, we should not expect spring in overdrive and any incidence of +20C is a long way ahead. This will likely be the third April in a row substantially colder than long-term average (+9.2C for Warsaw). The tyre change due next Saturday.

COVID-19 timeline - 1Q2023

Friday, 13 January 2023
Despite middle of the winter, infections in Poland reach their low, with 7-day average number of infections down at 278.

Saturday, 4 February 2023
Two years and eleven months after the first registered COVID-19 case in Poland, I get a positive test result. My infection escapes the official statistics despite an attempt to get tested at GPs.

Tuesday, 14 February 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland rises above 1,000, for the first time since 25 October 2022. R(t) is around 1.40 and positivity rate close to 30%.

Friday, 24 February 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland rises above 2,000, for the first time since 13 October 2022. The positivity rate close to 35%.

Monday, 13 March 2023
There have been several infection clusters in my office. Luckily, my hybrid immunity kept my health at bay.

Wednesday, 15 March 2023
The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Poland reaches 3,235 – it has not been so bad since many months, which shows the scale of infections not reported officially.

Thursday, 16 March 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland rises above 3,000, for the first time since 4 October 2022. On this day the peak of the current wave is hit, with 3,012 cases reported on average daily during the recent 7 days.

Thursday, 23 March 2023
The hot topic is the availability of Paxlovid, the medicine effective at treatment serious COVID-19 cases. In Poland, it is not reimbursed and widely available, unlike in civilised western countries.

Tuesday, 28 March 2023
The 7-day average number of new infections in Poland declines below 2,000, for the first time since 23 February 2023. Going uphill took 20 days, going downhill – only 12 days.

Tuesday, 31 March 2023
I still observe many people sick around, yet fewer with C19, more with flu type B, whose course of infections are more serious (several days in bed with high fever).

Credit Suisse...

…has become a history. The demise of the legend of the European banking might symbolise a mini-banking crisis witnessed in early 2023. I deliberately underline its small scale, as comparing to the meltdown in late 2008, the current tribulations pose no major risk to the financial system. Nevertheless, the insolvency of the Silicon Valley Bank has reminded about terms such as bail-out, Chapter 11, deposit insurance.

The sixteenth largest bank in the USA had a quite specific portfolio of risky exposures to tech start-ups and venture capital businesses. Many of them no longer thrived as the pandemic officially came to an end, so online ventures had to wind down. Besides, several businesses could not withstand interest rate hikes to level unseen in the USA since 17 years. For one of the banks this turned out to be a recipe for a disaster, while the rest of the banking sector carry on. Investors indeed reacted to the collapse of SVB, but the sell-off on stock exchanges reflected uncertainty, rather than panic.

Credit Suisse going under has surprise nobody keeping track of the banking sector and the takeover by UBS is to ensure a soft landing to the financial system. The lesson to be learnt is to keep away from murky institutions, a label Credit Suisse had worked hard for. On this occasion I recalled being recruited by CS in 2017 and being turned down on account of exorbitant expectations towards my pay. Time has proven that deal was not meant to be nailed down.

The recent opinion of European Court of Justice on inequality of rights in case a CHF mortgage loan agreement is nullified also cast a shadow of doubt on stability of the banking system in Poland. In fact whoever panics is overreacting. The mortgages in CHF are in fact being slowly written down for nearly a decade and most of the burden has been absorbed. As tackling the problem was eventually spread over time, losses could be gradually absorbed by banks. Currently only some banks with the biggest exposures to mortgages in CHF might be in need of capital injection is the ECJ ruling (binding, unlike the aforementioned opinion), but the risk of a Polish bank being on a brink of collapse is low.

Investors feared the turmoil in the financial sector could spill over to the real economy, hence stock exchanges and commodities were in the red in March 2023. If you bet the markets are overreacting, than an opportunity to buy up underpriced assets has cropped up. Lower prices of crude oil and other commodities can also contribute to faster disinflation, which in turn is likely to boost economic revival.

Prague

While staying in Szklarska Poręba, we hatched the idea it would have been a shame not no pop in on Prague, which was mere 130 kilometres away. We ventured there on Saturday, 4 March and it was my first foray to the capital of the Czech Republic since 2001.

To the right – after an ascent through Petrinske Sady park we reached the Hrad hill from which one can delight in a remarkable panorama of the old town and districts of the eastern bank of Vltava. The weather was not splendid, overcast skies and +4C.

Having ambled around the Hrad hill we headed towards the Charles Bridge and passed by the John Lennon wall, which oddly enough is listed as one of main landmarks of Prague by Google Maps.

Having shunned crowds and paid entry to the Golden Lane we roamed past the afore- mentioned bridge which turned out to be the most crowded place out of those we visited. Prague’s historical part looks definitely superior to the one of Warsaw, fully destroyed during WW2.

The market square in Prague still suffers from excess concrete (betonoza), insufficient greenery and not prohibited access of motor vehicles. That very venue was actually a letdown.

Incidentally, we ran across the spot I best remember from my school trip to Prague in 2001 – Vaclavske Namesti alley and the Narodni Muzeum in the distance. The place is also (in)famous for picture of soviet bloc intervention in Prague in August 1968. Note Marks & Spencer has not wound down its business in Czechia.

Back close to the Cerni Most P&R close to Prague’s Metro B line terminus, where we left the car for the entire day for the equivalent of PLN 10. For those visiting the capital of the Czech Republic an excellent solution, since the car park is just 2 kilometres away from the motorway. On my way back I was snapped by the speed camera – for driving 59 km/h were the speed limit was 50 km/h I was fined the equivalent of PLN 200, which I duly paid. I must admit our southern neighbours are less tolerant to those speeding and do not take their time in chasing the disobedient motorists. I Poland road authorities and the police turn a blind eye at speeding below 10 km/h and photos from speed cameras arrive months, rather than a week later.

Nordic Skiing

Back from my first winter holidays (other than in a warmer place) ever. And back from an invigorating experience of acquiring a new skill from scratch. As a 35-year-old man I wore ski for the first time in my life, which was a kind of scary, yet thrilling. The originator of the trip was my girlfriend, since over 5 years a keen ski-runner. Once the school winter holiday were over, we headed for Szklarska Poręba, a favourite destination of ski-runners in Poland.

Dolny Śląsk is my favourite province of Poland, having its spirit regardless of the season of the year. I ventured there in 2019, 2015, 2013 and in 2009 (this reminds me PES will turn 15 in less than a year) and I am quite likely to return there more often. 

The drive (within speed limits) to Szklarska Poręba takes some 5 hours door-to-door and (sadly) beats the train connection, whose duration is nine hours, if you choose a direct connection. But if you choose the train and get off at Szklarska Poręba Górna station, such splendid view will be the reward for the length of the ride. The highest mountain to the right is Szrenica. Pay attention to the weather – during 5 out of 7 days of our stay we enjoyed clear blue skies and temperature fluctuations from around –10C at nights to close to 0C in early afternoon. The snow had fallen just before our arrival.

Szklarska Poręba is hilly and full of contracts. Many blocks of flats for rent have been built in the recent decade, but run-down old buildings are still in abundance – the one snapped to the right could be turned into a jewel, if properly renovated.

Now a shot for train anoraks, with Newag-built Koleje Dolnośląskie train. Szklarska Poręba Górna is where trains from Wrocław, Warszawa and Liberec terminate. Trains to Wrocław and to Liberec (via Jakuszyce and Harrachov) run once an hour, but long-distance services from the capital can be spotted there only twice a day.

Such enchanting encounter with the nature was probably meant to enchant me. Crisp snow, with ski tracks prepared, forest, sunshine. I am far from the civilisation, far from work, far from things which bother me.

I must confess I had had plans to learn Nordic skiing in Warsaw, but recent winters rarely brought a sufficient deep snow surface and eventually I ended up moving on skis for the first time on 27 February 2023. I took a private lesson with an instructor, which was definitely a good choice. In my age catching the coordination of body movements and learning to keep the balance takes a bit and has turned out not as easy as it seemed. Besides, I had to overcome my fear of not having control of how I slide on skis (no matter how slow my motion was). Over five days I grasped the basics of two styles and trained braking, the effects of which I still feel on backside. I fell over several times, but was fortunate not to have an injury. The next skiing experience is due next winter, I hope not to forget the skills learnt this year by then.

Investing in 2023

While filing my tax return on Thursday and claiming a sizeable refund (the effect of amending the Polski Ład reform in 2H2022 which retroactively decreased the PIT rate in the first bracket from 17% to 12%) I thought how to make the best use of money, other than spending it.

The current year does not seem to be easy for holders of pecuniary assets, since preserving purchasing power of money has become a challenge. Let’s look at the most popular alternatives at hand.

With the current real interest rate of -10% in Poland, bank deposits (whose quotations fell recently) still offer a solid alternative to putting money in a drawer, but even with expected disinflation, a real return in a few months is very likely to be negative anyway.

Poles are generally wary of fancy investments and therefore those who possess sizeable surpluses often turn them into tangible assets, i.e. residential properties. Between October 2021 and October 2022 mortgage instalments rose by around 100% and repayment capacities shrunk, hence the number of new mortgages granted was falling by nearly 70% year-on-year in 3Q2022. Property transaction prices only nudge up these days, but with inflation of over 17% (the January 2023 reading), value-wise they have produced a real negative return of 15% over the recent year. If prices stabilise in nominal terms over the next quarters, in real terms they will begin to be getting cheaper and cheaper. My forecast for this asset class (I dislike the term, since I believe properties should meet people’s housing needs rather than constitute a haven for their money) is not optimistic. With factors driving their prices potentially up and down in the near future, I believe the rent yield and price appreciation might be at the level of bank deposits, with higher risk and lower liquidity.

The equity market reached its low in Poland and on most markets in early October 2022. It seems at that time stock prices already discounted all negative scenarios on the horizon, especially pertaining to problems with energy supply during the winter. I believe stocks might be a good, but if you purchase them on a temporary low. My strategy would be to wait for a correction and get some exposure to equities and if the correction gets deeper, buy more to bring down the average purchase price.

Government bonds seem to be a safe choice credit-wise, since most governments benefit from the inflation, as the real value of their debt shrinks. With the anticipated decrease in interest rates, fixed-coupon bonds might be a good mid-term investment, but mostly in terms of price appreciation, not the interest income. The yields on Polish 10Y gilts were quite volatile in recent weeks. Even in recent days the yield increased from 5.9% to 6.3%, which given the 10Y tenor must have resulted in a substantial loss in value.

For some foreign currencies are an alternative. Here it seems that Polish zloty is already weak against major currencies and little room for depreciation is imaginable. In practice the negative real interest, disturbingly low for a civilised world, might send the Polish currency even lower.

I have no idea about alternative investments, since I do not track them, but definitely must advise you not to jump into a train which has already departed. Chasing missed opportunities is one of major mistakes investors make. Stocks? You should have bought them in October 2022. Polish gilts – too. Inflation-linked bonds – you should have purchased them in 2021 at the latest. As a proud (of my skills) holder of those securities I do not believe they will continue to fetch extraordinarily good returns for more than a few quarters ahead. Or actually with the governor of the central bank who does not fulfil his duty to shield purchasing power of Zloty, those bonds might outperform bank deposits for 2 or 3 years.

Off for late-winter holiday next weekend. A coverage due on 12 March 2023.

In which I catch COVID-19

Nearly three years into the pandemic and having taken four doses of vaccine against COVID-19 (second booster on 24 October 2022) for a long time I kept escaping an infection. But if you live normally and take no other precautions that getting a jab, catching the virus is just a matter of time.

Saturday, 28 January 2023
I attend a housewarming party – over 30 people on mere 30 square metres. Mostly likely I got infected there. I am not sure, since the host claims no one reported being ill afterwards.

Thursday, 2 February 2023
I feel a bit off-colour. While attending my fitness / workout classes I get tired quite quickly, but I don’t find it disturbing.

Friday, 3 February 2023
I wake up with a fever (body temperature of +38C) which I bring down with a painkiller, then feel strangely – I have a weird headache, my stomach turns upside down, I feel dizzy. On that day a penny drops. On that day the number of confirmed infections in Poland is above 1,000 for the first time since October 2022.

Saturday, 4 February 2023
I feel quite weak, worn-down. Before leaving to my parents just in case I take a test. The outcome is positive. I repeat the test after 2 hours of not eating nor drinking and again it is positive.

Sunday, 5 February 2023
I visit a doctor, to find out my lungs are clear and my employer-paid healthcare plan does not cover testing. The doctor does not even ask if I need a sickie.

Monday, 6 February 2023
My weakness continues, I feel dizzy, but have no other symptoms. Needless to say my infection escapes official statistics.

Tuesday, 7 February 2023
I grow even weaker and work from bed most of the day. Those days I sleep 9 – 10 hours each night.

Wednesday, 8 February 2023
I think I am finally on the mend, despite testing positive in the morning. In the evening I go for a walk. I don’t get particularly tired, but feel dizzy again.

Thursday, 9 February 2023
I cannot judge whether I would have felt better, had I not worked for 11 hours. Apart from the “dizziness” which does not ease off, I recover.

Friday, 10 February 2023
Again I get tested positive. This gets slowly boring…

Saturday, 11 February 2023
Despite the ongoing infection I wear a mask, go to the shops, go the a museum for an exhibition. Nobody around cares if the virus is around, so why should I excessively care about other people. I hope to turn negative soon and to have no long-term complications after the infection.

Tribulations at work

For a while I have not shared many news from the corporate front, where the goings-on have been anything, but uneventful in recent months.

In September 2022 I was awarded a promotion. I had not held out for it, I had not strived for it, it came unbidden, although I perceive it as a well-deserved distinction. It involved a below-inflation pay rise, theoretically the same scope of duties, but in practice I am supposed to serve as consultant / advisor to less competent employees. That very change has not been a tremendous one.

In early December 2022 I learnt my manager with whom I had worked for 5 years would be promoted as of January 2023 and would be in charge of a newly created bureau. His promotion was well-earned too and I wished him all the best on the new career path, but on the other hand I regretted our paths parted for a while.

Also in December 2022 the vacancies we had had in our team and which generated additional workload were filled. Instead of hiring one senior analyst, somebody resolved to take on two absolute freshmen (graduates). I heard payroll of two junior analysts was lower than amount claimed by experienced professionals. Whether such savings pay off is debatable, since it takes much more time and effort before freshmen become value-generating staff.

In early January 2023 it transpired that the head of my department would go on a six-month sabbatical starting with the beginning of February. Actually it would not mean a great change, had it not been for a fact his responsibility for co-ordinating a multi-geography project on Poland level has been laid on me.

On 16 January 2023 my new manager had his first day at work. He is an experienced professional, open-minded, communicative, competent man and after three weeks I believe he is one of few outstanding bosses. In the meantime I have to assist him in finding his way around the new organisation, but this effort already pays off.

On the same day I became a mentor for the two freshmen, with a mission to bring them up into card-carrying credit analysts. So far my efforts go mostly down the drain. They lack basic knowledge SGH graduates should possess. This could be made up for with a bit of time and patience, but their brightness leaves a lot to be desired. They are determined to learn, but instead of comprehending causations, they attempt to memorise things, which does not bode them well as analysts. I have already shared my observations with our managers and at least they agreed after a probationary period some difficult decisions might need to be taken.

Under all the circumstances above, my workload is now a bit of excessive – my portfolio of clients is larger than of any other person in the department (and some of accounts are troublesome), I co-ordinate a project, I look after freshmen and help my boss. In return I have negotiated official overtime I register and will be paid for. In a short term, this makes sense and is equivalent to a 30% - 40% pay rise, but within a perspective of a few months I would definitely prefer not to work more than 45 hours a week and spend my off-work time in a more appealing way that doing overtime.