A short economic review...

Even very short. Not to break the tradition I feel bound to foresee the next move of Monetary Policy Council… And something (this time probably only my common sense) tells me it will make a stopover in the cycle of loosening monetary policy. The last week brought us some optimistic news from the economy – zloty has strengthen against other currencies, indices of Warsaw Stock Exchange bounced back... Nevertheless, I’m still holding the view that the prospects of the future do not look so bright – forecasts of GDP growth are continually lowered, the annualised rate in the first Quarter of 2009 is expected to be around one and a half per cent. Reassuringly, inflation rate will hit the target in the medium term (but it gives some room for further cuts). Bank Goldman Sachs (advised by my idol Kaziu) has recently issued a note bringing on taking short positions in the speculation on zloty. BTW did anybody notice the positive correlation between the exchange rate of zloty against other currencies and the indices of Warsaw Stock Exchange (the stronger zloty is, the more the share prices rise). That only proves it is driven mostly by foreign investors…
The next post will appear in about a week. It’s neither my lack of patience, nor my lack of inspiration, the lack of time is here to blame.
And a recommended piece of reading for today - I promised something abou conspiracy theories...
Take care :)