Pandemic diary - week 32

Monday, 19 October 2020

Do I fear I catch the virus? Not much. But I fear complications, i.e. aftermaths in my lungs, heart or brain. I fear if I catch it, I inadvertently infect someone else or somebody else in the chain dies. I fear my parents get infected. I fear the overstrained health service does not help my relatives with their ordinary health problems. I fear doctors will have to decide who to rescue to who to let die. I fear the sight of coffins on the national stadium. It’s hard to have a restful sleep these days.

Slovakia plans to test its entire population over the coming 2 weekends, in attempt to crack down on the virus. Experts claim it is a shrewd move. I keep fingers crossed for Poland’s southern neighbours.

 

Tuesday, 20 October 2020

The number of deaths in CEE per 1 million citizens reported in October 2020 exceeds the one in countries of Western Europe. Does it disprove the assertion our genes give us better protection?

I ponder upon helplessness in struggle against the virus. A year ago the problems we are facing today seems unimaginable.

 

Wednesday, 21 October 2020

The daily number of new detected infections in Poland exceeds 10,000 for the first time.

Have you noticed every time prime minister Morawiecki speaks of the pandemic, he begins by indicating about countries which fare worse than Poland in their fights again coronavirus? But he will fool fewer and fewer Poles.

 

Thursday, 22 October 2020

Czech Republic and Belgium are the most hit by the virus. In recent days the number of daily new detected infections in both countries exceeded 1 per 1,000 citizens. In other words, 1 in 800 residents was confirmed positive in one day. Multiply it by 5 days and divide by confirmation rate of 25% and you arrive at chances of meeting an infected person of 1 to 40 (or 2.5% in each encounter).

We are following the path of the Czech Republic, but are two weeks behind them. The country goes into a fortnight-long full-blown lockdown today. I believe this is inevitable in Poland and commences around the end of first decade of November.

 

Friday, 23 October 2020

My self-isolation lasting 10-days is over. Neither my girlfriend nor I have not had any symptoms. In the evening I pop over to my parents, but all the time wear a face mask and gloves and keep distance. I will not approach them for a month since today.

New restrictions come into force tomorrow, including a “soft prohibition” to elderly (70+) people from leaving home. My parents refuse to follow it and say they will go out, taking the proper precautions. I support them in their decision. Locking people up at homes has detrimental impact on their mental and physical health.

 

Saturday, 24 October 2020

Today I was supposed to have a first meeting with a family (2 hours spent in their dwelling, which is a much bigger peril than doing shopping or riding a bus) being a potential beneficiary of Szlachetna Paczka. The meeting has been called off 2 hours before, but this is just a deferral.

Today is the first day restaurants are closed, yet dance schools are open. Leakages from the government reveal a full lockdown, even deeper than the one from March or April is on the table. I still believe it will be in effect in the second and third decade of November.

Pandemic diary – week 31

Monday, 12 October 2020

I believe numbers best describe where we are and this has been the massive surge in new infections that prompted to me restart my diary. The same trend has been visible across Europe, however in order to get the full picture, one must not compare absolute numbers, but the number of new cases daily per 1,000,000 citizens. In the most dire circumstance, i.e. in Czech Republic on 10 October 2020, 0.08% of the entire country’s population was tested positive on just one day.

Looking outside and on the traffic density map, I see traffic volume is somewhat lower than around a week ago. With the rising number of infections probably more employers switch back to home office.

 

Tuesday, 13 October 2020

Number of new cases relative to population is a measure which has to be combined with a number of tests per 1,000,000 citizens. In Poland the cumulative number of tests since the inception of the pandemic is the fourth lowest in the EU, with Croatia, Hungary and Bulgaria lagging behind my homeland.

My thoughts go out to Czech Republic and Slovakia, half a year ago both praised for exemplary crackdown on the coronavirus. They have fallen victim to complacency and loosening of sanitary regime. Misfortunes strike out of the blue.

 

Wednesday, 14 October 2020

It might seem strange, but my workmates being relationship managers still meet clients (clients insist on face to face meetings), but more and more meetings are cancelled due to incidents of COVID-19 at clients’ premises.

One of side effects of obligation to wear face masks outdoors is decline in physical activity. My father who would walk to Auchan every 2 days to do the daily shopping said he would not lug shopping bags when breathing is impeded and began to drive.

Today the number of daily COVID-related death exceeded 100.

 

Thursday, 15 October 2020

Number of people on quarantine reached 296,000 today. Most of those people have had an interaction with somebody infected with COVID-19, but instead of testing them, Polish authorities tell them to stay at home for 10 days. Many of those people cannot work at that time, which increases additional losses to the economy. It seems we can afford thousand of idle people, but cannot afford widespread testing.

Experts threaten that in a few weeks number of daily cases (detected and not) might reach 200,000. With a population of 38 million, within 190 days every citizen would be infected. And apart from a humanitarian tragedy, what then? Would the epidemic burn out?

 

Friday, 16 October 2020

Went to the swimming pool this morning. It is the last day before gyms and swimming pools are shut down. Droves of people there, probably trying to lap up swimming before it is forbidden.

Just like in late March, those days we have to live with uncertainty. Making any plans for a week or two ahead makes no sense.

 

Saturday, 17 October 2020

Since yesterday I partly self-isolate myself, i.e. meet nobody else, but my girlfriend who, on Wednesday talked to a workmate whose flatmate had been tested positive. As it turned out, Sanepid is not interested in tracing such person’s contacts.

The first day when swimming pools are closed until further notice, since in chlorine water the virus has ample chances to spread, while dancing schools remain open. The government strategy of selective lockdown lacks rhyme and reason and contradicts any common sense. With swimming pools closed and limited possibilities to do sport outdoors (it is confined to place where one does not have to cover face, i.e. forests, parks and other green areas) looking after my physical health is getting more difficult.

Tinder – why I have deleted it

While I last updated on how I was doing with a dating application, I was about to meet up with Girl 10, Natalia. That affection lasted merely 10 days, yet was the most intensive of all lived through this year. The chemistry was in the air from our first date which lasted 3 hours, up until the fifth one. She was 7 months younger than me, held an executive position in one of worldwide corporation, besides was damn smart, inquisitive, businesslike and beautiful (176 centimetres tall, slim, long, blond hair). Going out with her boosted my ego (though I had not planned it), as such woman raises the bar high and very few males could live up to her expectations. I did not feel inferior on account of having a senior rank-and-file position and earning half of what she earned and not driving an Audi A6 being her company. Her approach to relationships, especially her actually unfinished relationship with her ex-boyfriend have prompted me to give up on it. I felt relief after telling we there was no point in meeting any more. Emotionally, I have come out of that affection burnt and bruised. I dug up dirt of my previous relationship or other events I had considered to be closed chapter. Yet, those 10 days gave me a very precious lesson of how I should not feel like while by somebody’s side.

As I was picking up the pieces, left with little hope of finding somebody to be a match to me, I chatted up Girl 11, also Natalia. She was kind of reserved and therefore we met after 9 days of texting at a café. We talked for 4 hours, then I saw her off to the underground. After that meeting we both thought it could developed into nothing more than a friendship. For some reason we gave it a chance and met two days later at her home, talked for 3 hours more, then hugged and in the middle of a night I drove back home. Then a few days later we spent the entire evening on a Vistula-side beach. We have just let things drift and it has shaped up.

We both realise we differ in terms of education, job, earnings, yet we focus on what brings us together, staying aware of our imperfections.

I appreciate she is straightforward, sincere, trustworthy, has outstanding emotional intelligence and has all makings of a good friend.

After 3 months (we first met on 9 July 2020) I still feel some sort of uncertainty (which is natural, yet vividly communicated by her). Also since we spend a lot of time together, also in each other’s home, it seems this relationship is has lasted longer than actually. Quite early, the time of butterflies in the stomach and honeymoon seems to be drawing to a close (hopefully the affection is not burning out). With prospects of an imminent second lockdown (the recent surge in new infections (5,300 yesterday vs. around 2,400 a week ago) we are considering living together under one roof.

Given the pandemic has sadly spiralled out of control, not only in Poland, but across Europe, I have resolved to resume my pandemic diary, which I wrote between mid-March 2020 and mid-May 2020. The days ahead ought to be saved for posterity. Maybe I am a born pessimist, but I fear the worst. The governors will be forced to choose between economic well-being and mental health of all people at the expense of healthcare brought to its knees or saving lives of elderly people.

Bad days coming?

In May I predicted the second wave of COVID-19 would bring more fatalities than the first one. If we look at the number of daily new infections in several European countries, not all exhibit the typical second wave pattern (a considerable decline in new cases in between would need to be witnessed), but everywhere one can observe a surge in newly detected ones.

The figures for the recent weeks in Poland are disturbing. The number of new cases which exceeded 1,000 first on 19 September hit 2,292 on 1 October and 2,367 on 2 October. A more alarming figure is the number of hospital beds occupied and number of patients under respirators; the latter rose by more than 100% within the last 10 days.

The recent spike has little or nothing to do with the weather (locked down Israel still enjoys +30C temperatures), but with people returning to normalcy, including children going to school, mixing up and socialising as if COVID-19 did not exist and general fatigue with the sanitary regime that has kept us company over the recent months. This falls is line with my predictions dated May 2020.

Reality in early October 2020 is definitely different than in mid-March 2020. On our side are:
- good supply and availability of face masks and sanitisers as well as protective equipment in hospitals,
- better knowledge of the medical nature of the virus and how it has mutated towards less deadly form, implying lower mortality,
- worked out combinations of medicines used in therapy.

What does not bode well for the future:
- much fewer people are afraid of the virus – in March 2020 the threat of infection was a novelty, everybody feared a scenario from northern Italy or from New York where overstrained hospitals workers had to choose who to rescue,
- general return to normal life – meaning most people who worked remotely at the beginning of the pandemic are back in offices, children have returned to schools, socialising is in overdrive,
- growing disobedience of basic protective rules, especially not wearing face masks properly indoors, not to mention the bunch of morons who deny the virus and espouse the pandemic is a conspiracy plotted to take control over humans and enslave them.

It needs to be underlined PiS government has buggered it up in terms of preparing hospitals for the second wave. In some regions hospitals are already running out of beds for patients, while the worst is still much ahead. They have had 6 months to make up for deficiency other than structural shortage of workforce, but they have screwed it up all along! In terms of testing we are far behind countries which target 100,000 tests a day (France, Great Britain, Italy). If we were to catch up with them, given our smaller population, we should do 70,000 tests a day.

The second harsh lockdown is not imaginable, not just because of disobedience and reluctance to social discipline rules, but also because our faltering economy and public finances lacking reserves cannot afford it. In all countries where anti-virus measures are tightened, they are targeted to minimise contacts between humans without harming businesses. Nevertheless, rules of rigour set not only in Poland are absurd. Closing eateries at 10:00 p.m. implies a virus tends to spread overnight. An imminent (Warsaw might become a red zone next Saturday) obligation to wear a face mask during a lonely walk through countryside fields, while one is permitted to attend a wedding reception with 50 other people is an outright idiocy.

Besides, restrictions, if are to be effective, ought to be enforceable. Just like in the UK, you might forbid people mixing up indoors, but how will you check people abide by rules in their dwellings? Will you rely on neighbours kindly informing too many folks have gathered next door? The strategy of recommending social distancing rests on trust in people’s wisdom, which was effective in the early days of pandemic, when discipline was fed by fear of the unknown. Today I doubt it is effective any longer.

With this all in mind, my biggest fear now is my volunteer activity in Szlachetna Paczka, for several reasons:
- my co-volunteers seem to shrug off the virus and the fact if half of us get infected from one another (we meet in person once a fortnight, frequency of meeting to increase with time) and need to go on quarantine for a fortnight, the work in the district is paralysed (I believe we might meet, but need to wear face masks as a must all the time),
- we have to strictly obey the sanitary regime when we meet families in their dwellings and require the same from families visited,
- observing the chaos and disorganisation inside Szlachetna Paczka on countrywide and local level, I fear their plan B and plan C for the pandemic is just a non-existent strategy (it is kept confidential for some reason).

Truth be told, optimism does not keep me company these days (I am sick of working from home, yet I realise returning to the office is not an option), despite doing well in personal life.

Weather note: as a write it early in the morning, temperature is +19C and gusty southern wind is blowing. Yet temperature record for October in Warsaw (+25.9C on 5 October 1966) is unlikely to be broken.

Behind the wheel, finally

It’s been a while since I last broached the accursed topic of domestic politics…

The leaks and then confirmed news that the most prominent back seat driver in this country is to join the government have brought a smile (or at least a smirk) on my face. It is not about looking back to 2006 when taking over by Mr Kaczyński as prime minister was a first drop in a waterfall that eventually led to early election in October 2007 in which PiS was defeated. It is about principles. In each civilised country somebody who keeps a tight rein on a state holds a position in a government (or another power-gripping one). Mr Kaczyński until now was the only decision maker to remain in a position of a (seemingly) modest rank-and-file deputy, thus shunning responsibility for all criminal deeds committed by PiS officials while in power.

Also the squabbles in Zjednoczona Prawica (beware, PiS does not have a single-party government, it has won the election in a coalition with two other parties and does not have majority of seats in the lower house of the parliament itself) and threat of conceivable split in the ruling coalition have filled me with some faith. After a while, I have dashed all hopes. Firstly, since situation in Poland is different than in 2006/2007. Too many Poles have either been bought off with social transfers or have been lifted into dignity by PiS. They are besotted well enough to endorse PiS, come rain or shine, so each piece of news putting PiS in bad light would be interpreted by them as work of hostile foes of Polishness. Secondly, since I want my country to be run well. If PiS and their coalitional partners concentrate on spats rather than wise lawmaking, it should be to the detriment of Poland. Yet, on the other hand, the more they focus on fighting for stools, they less evil they do to Poland, especially to the justice system.

One must bear in mind the next parliamentary election is due in 3 years. This gives PiS, Porozumienie and Solidarna Polska a lengthy streak to reshape (i.e. damage) Poland, especially to finish reforms which would turn Poland into a quasi-authoritarian country. They need to remember people’s memory is short, so whatever good they do now, will need to be reminded of ahead of the election, but whatever is screwed up, stands a chance to be forgotten by 2023. I suppose the next parliamentary election will be as free as the recent presidential election. I do not believe it will be rigged as the presidential election in Belarus in August 2020 was, but PiS will do their best to manipulate possibly many people to vote for them. 

What the government now needs to tackle is the rising number of new coronavirus infections. In this respect Poland is catching up with its neighbouring countries and Western European countries, where the number of new infections is already much higher than at the peak of the first wave of COVID-19. In Poland the number of new cases per 1,000,000 citizens is already much lower than in several countries where the situation has spiralled out of control, but since as a society we do not take precautions, their path is the one we will have to follow. We are now far better prepared to protect ourselves against the virus and know better how to cure the disease, but Poland no longer can afford a second lockdown. New restrictions, if imposed, will make our lives less convenient, but should be targeted not to smash businesses (though some economic impact is inevitable). The second lockdown is impossible for another reason – people are no longer as afraid of the pandemic (humans naturally fear the unknown, while COVID-19 is already a familiar pest) and will not be ready to obey strict lockdown discipline, as they did in March or April (unless police and army are to be sent to enforce the new rules).

Bieszczady – the only holiday trip in 2020

Back after a three-week break from blogging, of which one week was spent 450 kilometres away from the capital, at Poland’s alleged back of beyond, the country’s south-eastern corner, in Bieszczady. I must confess this has been my first trip to that region of Poland and my first mountain-hiking holidays since 2004 (high-school times). Bieszczady mountains are famous for being the least human-affected region in Poland. I believe with development of tourism and influx of EU funds, this holds no longer true. On top, with limited opportunities to travel abroad, the region experienced an invasion of holidaymakers this year, which kept on even after the beginning of the school year.

Getting there if you do not move by car might be a nuisance. Public transport at that end of Poland is poorly developed, yet anyone willing to get there from Warsaw should consider taking a Pendolino to Kraków and then changing to a bus run by one of private operators (timetables need to be matched). Moving around the area is an even bigger nuisance (one bus per day at inconvenient times for hikers), hence travelling by car was a costly salvation.

Accommoda- tion-wise, we stayed at Cisna, an anti-PiS stronghold in that part of Poland. I can recommend our lodgings – Troll at the very heart of Cisna – a room and large breakfast for 100 PLN per person per day (a lot in today’s prices?).

Sightseeing-wise, not many trips could be taken there. We finally have not dropped in on skansen near Sanok, but on any rainy daily (it drizzled from dawn to dusk) we took a trip to Polańczyk (photo to the right), Solina water dam, Lutowiska and Ustrzyki Górne, just to find out the region is attractive as a whole, but lacks place which are particularly noteworthy.

On the first sunny day, we ascended up Smerek. The elevation was nearly 600 metres and the ascent was rather long than steep, but as in every hiking experience, views from the summit (1,226 metres above sea level) compensate for the physical effort.

On the next day, we climbed the highest peak in Bieszczady, Tarnica (1,346 metres above sea level). The starting point for the trip was located on a higher altitude than on the previous, yet the elevation gain was similar. The ascent was steep again and was less pleasurable, due to abrasion of my right foot (two weeks of walking in my shoes had proven too little), yet we have made it to the peak. This was the most crowded of the hiking trails.

On the last day we scrambled up the trail to Połonina Wetlińska. The lowest elevation gain (350 metres to some 1,200 metres above sea level), yet view-wise, not least rewarding. Seeing the world from a top a hill looms as a reward to the sweating uphill.

When it comes to eateries, I wholeheartedly recommend Chata Wędrowca in Wetlina (being a picturesque place anyway), famous for legendary pancakes, which are anything but overrated. Queues prove it best!

On our way back we popped over for an afternoon in Zamość, a city I had yearned to visit for months. A broader description of thereabouts can be found on W-wa Jeziorki blog (no point in writing it up again).

And for the record, this was the first holiday trip with my girlfriend met via Tinder in early July. No spats over six days spent together all the time seem to bode well for the future.

Szlachetna Paczka – back as a volunteer

Last year I seriously got involved in Szlachetna Paczka as a donor. Having seen the misery of families, I resolved to sacrifice more than money and some time, I have decided to spend even more time helping those in need and join the initiative as a volunteer.

In June and July I went through recruitment process and have been enrolled as a volunteer in the region of Ursynów. Yesterday I had an all-day onboarding workshop, run on-line. The biggest challenges lie still ahead. In October I will visit families reported to the initiative, then pick those which deserve to be helped, recognise and structure their needs, then co-ordinate with donors the delivery of gift packages to the families.

The description above puts very briefly what I am in for. I promise to write a separate post about each stage (picking families, working with donors, delivery of gifts to selected families) as the time goes by.

Next months are bound to be a period of facing constant time shortages. Szlachetna Paczka is a time-consuming occupation, fourth quarter is customarily the busiest season at work (and this year pandemic-driven slowdown will bear the additional brunt on my workload) and finally my private life has shaped up and I need to foster it, therefore long notes on the blog are not in the offing.

Next Sunday I set off to Bieszczady (first time in my life), for a long-awaited holiday trip (before the number of new infections soars), first since June 2019. Do not expect me to post before mid-September.

Czarni - book review

Having read Chciwość and Bogowie (about doctors), magnificent books by Paweł Reszka which I hold on my bookshelf, I did not hesitate much when I spotted the most recent piece, Czarni, published early this year and being a bunch of odd talks with… priests.

The convention of the book remains the same as in two previous ones – the author interviews anonymous representatives of a specific profession and then brings their stories together (in a fairly chaotic way) and paints a picture what they are like. The sample of priests who agreed to be Mr Reszka’s interlocutors might not be entirely demonstrative, yet their confessions appear as straightforward and trustworthy sources of inside knowledge on how the oldest corporation in the world functions.

The way the book is structured into chapters lacks an easily recognisable order, however main sins of the clergy emerge from the entire work.

Firstly, hubris which gives rise to conviction that priests are selected ones and superior to other people, a conviction which according to humble priests is totally unfounded.

Secondly, greed, one word which does not necessitate further comments.

Thirdly, disdain for people, which is inevitably linked to hubris, but manifests itself in little respect for humans priests deal with on everyday basis and (more often) to one another.

Fourthly, career pursuit, not a very common sin, yet there is a group of priests for who end justifies the means if a step up in the hierarchy is at stake.

Fifthly, the life of ease they pursue. Priests usually hire ladies to clean their dwellings, cook meals, iron clothes, know little about running the house and everyday duties (some have never cleaned a toilet bowl, to quote the most vivid example). They do not even know what costs of living are.

Sixthly, the Church as an institution is obsessed with ordinary people’s sexuality and attempts to instruct them how to get on with it, while representatives of the Church are officially not allowed to have a little notion what real life looks like.

The spate of interviews is also an account of solitude. Once a man decides to become a priest, he decides to forsake a family life forever. It is also a poignant reminder being surrounded by people does not guarantee salvation from loneliness. Priests seem to be poor at filling it and generally cannot boast about reasonable ways of filling the void such as sport, hobbies, passions, highbrow culture. They spend evenings watching TV, eating, sipping alcohol.

A gap between how people perceive life of a priest and reality is the most astonishing conclusion from the book I have drawn. Bear then in mind your priest’s life is far from being divine.

With few young lads eager to sign up for seminars these days, the Church in Poland will be facing a shortage of priests in years to come. Until early 1990s the Church was a backbone of freedom, one of the strongest institutions in the opposition to the communist governors. Today the freshmen are not as open-minded as their predecessors, therefore the Polish clergy is bound to evolve towards conservatism, drifting away from vision of the world espoused by the current Pope who does a lot to move with the times.

Belarus, where are you heading?

A short note today, as since yesterday I have been struggling a mini-heat stroke which hit me after cycling 70 kilometres with a 5-kilogram rucksack on my back in +28C heat on Friday. I was intent to swim in a lake, but the trip could have been done with some more convenient means of transport.

It goes without saying that the presidential election held in Belarus last Sunday has been rigged.

Needless to say, the opposition’s candidate has been blackmailed and forced to flee the country and seek asylum in bordering Lithuania (interestingly that it was not Poland that has given shelter to Mrs Tsikhanouskaya (mind spelling difference between Polish and English)).

Sadly, does not take aback the European Union has proven its weakness again. Gone are the times of Ukrainian orange revolution in November 2004 or Maidan protests in the same country in February 2014 when Western leaders acted up to the mark in aiding Ukraine break away from the dictatorship (for the latter attempt Ukraine has paid a price of the Russian invasion).

Democrats are facing a difficult question whether to interfere into internal affairs of a sovereign country and bring in democracy (attempts to install it in Middle-East Arab societies have turned out to plunge those countries into chaos, despite setting them free from dictators) or to let things drift and wait until suppressed nations stand up. For me the situation is akin to a dilemma of someone who hears that next door a neighbour beats up his wife. I believe domestic violence is not just a fellow men’s business and a decent man has an obligation to intervene.

Lukashenko regime remains powerful as long as it has police and army officers on its side. A few days ago armed forces appeared to stalwartly defend the status quo and hopes for winning the battle began to fade. Towards the end of the week one could hear of more and more instances of desertion and joining the protesters by OMON functionaries and soldiers. I believe if we are to pin hopes in anybody, those are the armed forces without which the dictator is powerless.

On moments like this I hark back to December 1989 when Romania’s communist dictator, Ceausescu was sentenced to death. I generally am against the bloodshed and capital punishment, yet somebody guilty of quelling a country’s potential and subduing a civic society deserves a war-time rather than peace-time condemnation. Such ending should remind a dictator how they may end up. On the other hand, fear of being killed would prompt them to take the cruellest measures to shield their regime.

Keeping my fingers crossed for Poland’s eastern neighbours. I realise the change will not happen overnight, this will quite likely be a long process of devolving power, yet I hope the change moves Belarus forward.

The epidemic in overdrive

If you thought the coronavirus would retreat in high summer, recent infection statistics have proven you wrong. Last week we crossed the barrier of 600 new infections a day in Poland, in recent days the 700 and 800 thresholds have been crossed. In terms of cases per 1 million inhabitants Poland keeps doing far better than countries most severely afflicted by the pandemic four months ago, yet the trend does not fill with optimism.

As Michael rightly points out, our collective complacency is to blame. We have got fed up with constant sanitising, social distancing and abiding by all rules which made our lives less convenient. On top, unlike in Italy or Spain, very few people have been known somebody infected, therefore the peril has not appeared too close for comfort.

In late March we exhibited exemplary discipline, out of fear of the unknown. The spurt of anxiety was short-lasting. Psychologists claim human being are capable of large, yet short-lasting sacrifices. Besides, human memory is surprisingly short. On top, humans naturally want to rejoice to make up for time of sacrifices. The recipe for relaxation of virus prevention rules (partly written up by the government) might soon turn out to be a recipe for disaster.

The vaccine for COVID-19, if effective, is months away from us. We know somewhat better how to cure the infected, our health service is better prepared, but specialists estimate if the number of new infections exceeds 1,000 per day, we might run out of hospital capacity. The second lockdown is ruled out for economic reasons. For some time, the virus will need to be targeted with local lockdowns are sets of restrictions that might give people a hard time, but will not push towards austerity.

I personally try to live possibly normally, yet I strictly obey face-covering principles, keep my distance from people, avoid restaurants and cafes, except for open-air ones and shun crowded places. Much enough to minimise the risk of infection without risking my mental health.

Scientists have taken back their assertions that the virus is seasonal. In terms of transmission, the risk in open air on a sunny and dry day is perhaps lower, yet people get infected in interiors where conditions do not depend on the weather outside. Though the transmission might not speed up in the colder season, the incidences of flu and COVID-19 with similar symptoms will mix up, making it hard for doctors to diagnose which patient is down with which disease and possibly clogging up the health service.

Even those young and healthy who are likely to be asymptomatic, should not shrug off the virus. The disease is said to leave a mark of destruction in lungs, heart and brain, which is horrifying. I still pin some hopes in wisdom of people who should not deliberately do themselves harm. As a born pessimist, I still fear the worst is ahead.