Conspiracy theories

There are a few things I can be ashamed of in my life. One of them is an episode of fascination with conspiracy I went through on the verge of adolescence and adulthood. Countless theories of other than official course of events in 9/11 terrorist attacks and climate change denialism were my focus for a while around 2007. For a grown-up, yet immature lad the uncanny explanations were compelling and fortunately, meaningless in the long run.

Then came the tenth day of April in 2010 when a Polish plane carrying 96 people tragically crashed in Smolensk. Circumstances of the accident have immediately become a fertile ground for conspiracy theories, which for years continued to mark a divide line in the Polish politics. I was three years older and much wiser, not to fall for stories of assassination, artificial fog, metal-hard birch, explosives found in the wreck and other stuff.

A year and a half ago an epidemic caused by a novel coronavirus broke out in China. The peril was shrugged off and covered up by the local authorities who acted belatedly. The virus, which could have been kept at bay, spilled all over the world and turned lives of virtually everyone upside down.

Now go back in time to July 2019 and imagine somebody telling you about lockdowns, overwhelmed health service, major increase in mortality, economy and social life running into a standstill, shut down industries, compulsory mask-wearing. You would laugh them off. The unimaginable has become a reality.

Here is what underlies each single conspiracy theory – an event so complex, so improbable, so hardly imaginable, going beyond people’s comprehension, that it calls for a simple clarification. A human mind does not like to make too much effort. It yearns for quick solutions instead of uphill and mind-bending pursuit of intricate truth.

People are sick of isolation, remote learning and working, restrictions. They hanker after normalcy. No wonder some of them, less intelligent and more gullible, fall for simple explanations, telling them the virus is a hoax, the pandemic had been planned in advance and under its guise a new order of the world is brought in. Such people have always been, yet in pre-Internet times just a handful of them were indulging in their vision of the world. With social media giving everybody a chance to share their thoughts, their visions are spread far too far and wide. They take fancy of (usually) poorly educated people who, having gotten familiar with shady articles, memes or video, claim to have knowledge superior to epidemiologists and virologists. 9/11 or Smolensk conspiracy theories referred to past events and were relatively harmless. Today, the narration of a false pandemic and bleating of the anti-vax movement can cost health and lives of millions of people. Disturbingly.

Being happy in Alaska - book review

Last Saturday, while being at loose end at my girlfriend’s mother house, I grabbed a book written by a Spanish psychologist which I’d spotted on a shelf and, with a prospect of finding myself some way of passing time until she does the make-up before setting off for the wedding, read it from cover to cover.

I am not fond of guides, nor any sorts of books which are meant to utterly change your life in the wake of the read. As a person who likes to dive into intricacies, fascinated with complexity of the world, I am unlikely to be convinced to quick fixes or delusive simple solutions.

What particularly does not take my fancy is the notion of carefree life cherished in the book. Carefree moments are essential, but unless you are a selfish hedonist, carefree life appears a detrimental daydream. Besides, it is easy to advise people to abandon all their worries if you are a healthy and wealthy bachelor. Try recommending this to somebody who needs to earn a livelihood and pay for a therapy of their terminally ill child! Even if circumstances are not that dire, life is generally about mundane stuff, punctuated with joyful moments, about obligations towards the nearest and dearest and making compromises to foster relationships.

To avoid an impression that my judgement of the book is one-sided, I have noticed several threads which I see eye to eye with the author.

Life ought to be put into perspective – instead of craving for more, we ought to appreciate what we have and notice others are not lucky enough to enjoy good health, financial comfort, satisfying job, happy relationships etc. Gratitude for little things and delight in little pleasures should fill our lives.

Mental strength is to be honed and developed in all stages of life. Life should not be about fretting and worrying.

Humans should accept the inevitable and learn to live with the prospect of it. If there is anything one can be sure about, it is, except for taxes, one’s own death. The decease is something you should not fear, like all events which you can’t escape. There are, of course, events which you may strive to avert, such as traffic accidents. But fearing them makes no sense as well. Taking precautions does make sense.

A rest is natural state of a human. I believe in a balanced life there should be time for work and for rest. To foster mental health, a human should know how to relax and recharge batteries, so that the working phase is used possibly effectively.

The author also gives valuable hints on talking to people with different views. In Poland, we tend to clash about politics and other stuff which draw divide lines in the society. When a dissenter becomes an enemy, any form of dialogue seems out of reach. Bridging the worlds which are apart is a craft and may help overcome discords within the family or friends.

Moving to the critical look at the book.

Having had an experience with episodes of depression and having gone an extra mile to understand the causes of the illness, I realise a blend of medicines and therapy is essential to cure a person affected by it. The milder the symptoms, the more therapy, the less pills, but in awful cases starting a therapy is impossible without bringing a patient into order with medicines. The author shrugs it off and claims a positive approach to life is sufficient to combat several mental disturbances. Such view is contrary to how evidence-based medicine (these days I am particularly sensitive to all assertions which undermine science) explains causes of mental disturbances and hence harmful. A change in approach is recommendable to grumblers and whiners, but not to mentally ill who need professional medical help.

The author seems to disregard the fact people have different personalities, different sets of traits, different psyches and those differences are innate. A human can decide to work to reshape themselves, but within reasonable limits of “staying yourself”. I realise the ideas of programming consciousness have grown popular recently, yet I remain sceptical towards them.

Two other concepts I find outlandish are that after a romantic relationship ends people can stay best friends (a separate post could be written why I believe this is not the best solution, except for situations when people have children) and that lack of particular skills stems from lack of self-belief in those skills. No, if somebody who lacks talent for driving believes they are a seasoned driver, they may bring misery on innocent people. I am not a talented football player and this does not come from my self-limitation or flawed belief. I just do not need to play football well to be happy and should not be ashamed of this. But overcoming my self-critical judgement to free up my potential to become a master on a football pitch sounds like a ridiculous idea.

All in all, the read of the book which had come into my hands accidentally was quite daunting. After a few months of reading-wise laziness, I am about to catch up. Several books ordered online in a local library and await my attention.

To a wedding

Just returned from a wedding ceremony and reception, the first one I attended since 2016.

Weddings have gained notoriety in the summer of 2020, as several of them were hotbeds of COVID-19 infections, leading to several participants being quarantined and some, sadly, hospitalised or deceased. Needless to say, a wedding is the last event during which a sanitary regime can be stuck to. I turned up there fully aware of risk and supposing that most guests (especially those who do not reside in Warsaw or around) have not been vaccinated. Well, hopefully with still low daily stats of new cases, we have not run across a super-spreader.

The one to get married was my girlfriend’s cousin. The nuptials ceremony was called off two times and finally the day named as restrictions eased. It was the first wedding since many years in their family, hence the excitement was palpable. For me, truth be told, such events are a no big deal I do not feel tempted to have my own memorable, lavish reception. Instead, I prefer a modest ceremony for family and friends. Besides, spending between fifty and one hundred thousand zloty for a one-night show appears to me as a far bigger waste of money than buying a SUV (though a wedding does not harm environment as an SUV does over its life cycle).

The wedding we attended was a typical zastaw się, a postaw się (literally run into debts to impress guests) one, albeit the expense was decreased by the venue of the reception which was in the middle of nowhere somewhere beyond Wyszków (fortunately, close to S8 expressway, whose proximity guarantee a fast comeback in the middle of the night).

I must admit this was the most weird wedding reception I have ever attended. As a company to my girlfriend, I knew nobody except for her, her mother, brother and his girlfriend, but truth be told, most guests seemed to know nobody except for their closest companions. On top, my girlfriend and her relatives shared my opinion nearly everybody had turned up to the reception treated their attendance as an unpleasant obligation to be ticked off and left behind. This was visible particularly on a dancing floor, where droves of people definitely were not witnessed. Also most people pushed along just after midnight to put themselves out of misery and return home early enough not to spend the entire Sunday morning sleeping off the event.

I wonder how many couples manage to tie a knot before restrictions are imposed again, if the Polish government decides (or is forced to) to bring some businesses to a halt if hospitalisations and death toll on account of COVID-19 begin to rise. Look at the approach of the British government which is set to lift all restrictions in a week, despite more than 30,000 new infections daily reported recently, with hospital admissions just creeping up (they rose 3 times, while new infections rose 16 times since trough in early May 2021) and deaths holding low thanks to vaccinating the 50+.

Pandemic diary – June 2021 notes

Thursday, 3 June 2021
A record-high number of 621,000 jabs administered on one day is reported, bringing the percentage of Poland’s fully vaccinated population to 20%.

Friday, 4 June 2021
In the UK the seven-day average of new cases is 100% up from early-May bottom. Those infected are mostly children, teenagers and young adults. 75% of adults in the UK have received at least one dose of a vaccine, 50% of adults are fully vaccinated.

Saturday, 12 June 2021
I get my second shot. Side effects – arm is less sore than after the first one. Besides – feeling just fine.

Tuesday, 15 June 2021
The Ministry of Health publishes vaccination statistics by residency (rather than vaccination centre location as hitherto). Warsaw can boast of the second-highest participation in the vaccination programme, with 58.81% of the city’s population (including children aged less than 12) to have received at least their first jab. Podkowa Leśna near Warsaw tops the chart, with participation of 59.38%. At the bottom of the list lies Lipnica Wielka in Małopolska where vaccine uptake is only 13.46%.

Friday, 18 June 2021
In the capital of Poland:
- 60.0% of residents have received at the one dose,
- 40.0% are fully vaccinated.
Feeling proud of my neighbours.

Monday, 21 June 2021
After scant testing on Sunday, a single-digit number of new cases is reported for the first time since March 2020. Sad news is that merely 25,000 people received their first jab yesterday.

Wednesday, 23 June 2021
Things are getting nasty in the UK. More than 16,000 new infections are reported, seven-day average reaches now over 11,300 and has doubled within 15 days.

Sunday, 27 June 2021
In Russia, one of 3 European countries where the Delta variant is prevalent (the UK and Portugal being two other ones) the seven-day average number of new infections doubled within 16 days and now reaches over 19,200 (vs. peak of the winter wave of almost 29,000). Local outbreaks have been witnessed in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. In both cities local authorities have resorted to stringent measures, including compulsory vaccinations to crack down on the epidemic.

Monday, 28 June 2021
Bulgaria overtakes Poland in terms of number of tests carried out per 1 million citizens since the beginning of the pandemic. From now on, Poland is at the very nefarious bottom of the list. This does not bear testimony of current testing, which results in positivity rate below 1.0%, but is the aftermath of grossly inadequate testing in October an November 2020, as well as in March 2021.
My first in the (almost empty) office since March 2020. Feels ghastly, but the aircon is on.

Tuesday, 29 June 2021
One-third of Poland’s population fully vaccinated. Much enough to curb the spread of the virus, far too little to be close to herd immunity.
I buy a 90-day travelcard. Time to return to public transport, whenever possible. Although I will not work from the office regularly, yet it will come in useful for returning from the swimming pool (2 stops by bus) and for trips to town to socialise. Time to live it up before Delta variant gets a foothold in Poland.

Wednesday, 30 June 2021
I am coming up with a new customary month-end vaccination progress report.

1. Vaccine uptake in age groups

2. Vaccination status in the entire population of Poland

Megane III – ten years old

The coming Thursday my car is bound to reach an important milestones in its history – a decade since its first registration. My father bought it brand-new on 1 July 2011 and gave it over to me in November 2016.

First 4 years during the car’s warranty period did not bode well for the future. The car had three breakdowns. Once had to be hauled to the Renault garage due to brake system vacuum pump failure and needed to have its thermostat and driver’s door hinges replaced. Over the next six years the onlydefect was the airbag sensor failure in May 2017. Since then – I have had it serviced once a year and except for spare part replacements driven by wear-and-tear, I did not need to sink money into the vehicle. The car, which for over two years has avoided journeys shorter than nine kilometres (six miles), now has nearly 75,000 kilometres on the clock.

In mid-distance and long-distance driving the car’s 1.4 turbocharged engine consumes on average 7 litres of petrol per 100 kilometres, while consumption below 6.5 litres is perfectly achievable in motorway driving with tempomat set at 110 kmph, aircon on and people and luggage on board. Sadly, the record-low consumption was 6.11 litres per 100 kilometres, but I hope to break that record.

I appreciate the car’s dynamics, low upkeep cost and reliability, but some details such as sixth gear which has characteristics of a fixth one (I can drive 68 kpmh at steady speed on it) or slowly heating up engine sometimes wind me up and both increase its appetite for fuel.

Given the vehicle’s excellent roadworthiness (no accident nor prangs, but one solid scratch and dent on rear-right wing arch made by me in February 2021), I plan to carry on with it as long as repairs do not become too frequent to be a big hassle for me, which I believe might happen in around five years. By that time we won’t part company.

For the record, two shots. To the right – taken on 19 September 2020, after a comprehensive interior cleaning and wash, looking almost like factory-new. Could have been in perfect condition for resale, a gift for nobody to bestow on.

Another one – taken on 16 June 2021, after belated spring cleaning at my parents drive. I do look after it and visit car washed during winter only to wash away the worst of the dirt. No signs of corrosion so far, nor other trace of its actual age.

To the seaside

The summer solstice is close by and I am back from the first holiday trip since September 2020 and my first longer stay at the Polish seaside since 2004. I concede not to be a big fan of the resorts at the Baltic coast. Droves of people, groan, stalls with souvenirs and ice-cold water in the sea in the high season put me off the place. But still in the low season (more than tolerable density of tourists over the working week) and with bikes as the main vehicle for moving about, the trip there turned out to be a perfect idea.

The weather also proved perfect, with continuous sunshine and day-time highs between +18C and +23C, conditions for cycling were more than conducive.

Before placing a reservation, we had to check whether two bikes with disassembled front wheels fit within the boot of my car (rear seats folded down) and leave some space for suitcases and rucksacks. My Megane turned out to be sufficiently spacious to fit all the stuff we needed. I am nevertheless not sure, whether the door-to-door journey by car (six hours with two stopovers – one to take a break from sitting behind the wheel, the other for a lunch) was shorter than going by train to Gdynia and then on to Władysławowo by another one, yet given all hassle with bikes and luggage and inconvenience of being unable to reach all places by bike, it has proven an optimal solution. The journey duration will shorten by nearly an hour in 2022, once the missing section of S7 motorway between Płońsk and Mława is opened.

The major nuisance along the way to the seaside was the aircon refrigerant which has run out and turned off the aircon compressor, prompting me to drive with open windows. This was not a breakdown, but my neglect, since the liquid had not been filled up since 2017 and I should have asked to have it changed in April, when the car had been serviced. I also report reasonable fuel consumption of 6.46 litres per 100 kilometres.

We booked an apartment for rent in Władysławowo via AirBnB, in reasonable vicinity of the beach. The spot is most northerly one in Poland, meaning in June days are the longest and sunsets are observed half an hour later than in Warsaw. On top, one has the chance of watching the sun going down into the sea on the horizon. The snap to the right was taken at 9:23 p.m. (provided camera clock had been set correctly).

Our longest trip (exactly 100 kilometres in which I beat my life record) was along the Hel peninsula and around. Here, a view from a pier in Jastarnia towards a promenade. Quite a few folks in the low season.

Same day, another promenade, in Hel. For decades a military zone, now open to everyone. Main types of tourists coming over in the first half of June are elderly people and couples with small children.

The peninsula can boast of a 35-kilometre-long cycling path running through it and marked R10. The path is at some sections more than picturesque, here, surrounded by greenery somewhere between Chałupy and Kuźnica.

To take some rest after a long ride, we drove to Sopot. Shame to admit, I had to catch up on my lifelong absence in the middle part of Trójmiasto. The visit paid was short – one can see the promenade, the pier, the grand hotel and so is the list of attractions basically over. We wondered how people can spend a fortnight there without getting bored.

From Sopot we drove to Gdańsk to stray around the old town area. In 2015 and 2016 I dropped in on the city several times in business, yet had little time to enjoy it. The Długi Targ street lit by early-summer sun looked out much better than in gloom of late November.

Another destination of a cycling trip was Dębki, less than 30 kilometres west of Władysławo-wo. The seaside village has lost far less of its virginity than other places at the Baltic coast. In the high season it definitely is not as peaceful, yet I rate it high.

For the end, a bonus shot from a spontaneous trip by car to Cypel Rewski, a quite undiscovered, yet magical place somewhere half way between Trójmiasto and Władysławowo. Worth popping by in June when days are the longest, sunny and scores of tourist do not spoil the atmosphere. As we came around the venue was invaded by a crew shooting an advertisement of Bank Millennium. Watch out for it in the coming weeks!

Given the number of attractions around, less than a weeks seems an optimum duration if you are not fond of lying about on a beach of wandering between eateries. Hope the coming weeks help catch up for weeks of staying at home to keep the epidemic at bay.

Pandemic diary – weeks 62 & 63

Monday, 17 May 2021
Seven-day average number of new infection has declined by more than 90% since the peak on 1 April 2021. Thus I ought to discontinue the diary, as promised, but I will switch into monthly reporting and pledge to resume the reporting in bi-weekly intervals once the seven-day average returns above 3,000, which sadly might happen with carefree opening everything up on 29 May 2021.

Tuesday, 18 May 2021
I posit that reporting new infections should be comprehensive. The total number of newly detected case should be split into:
- fully vaccinated (at least 14 days after the last dose of a vaccine),
- partly vaccinated (at least 14 days after the first dose of two-dose vaccines, but no more than 14 days after the last dose of a two-dose vaccine),
- unvaccinated (which includes up to 14 days after the first dose of any vaccine).

Wednesday, 19 May 2021
Percentage of Poles who have registered for the vaccination or received at least one dose has risen to 48%, or by 5 percentage points within 9 days. Not reassuringly a lot, not disturbingly little. All-out assault of anti-vaxxers’ propaganda does its bit in Poland.

Thursday, 20 May 2021
Minister Dworczyk (in charge of the national vaccination programme) asks Internet users on Twitter how to promote vaccinations and combat disinformation. Commendable he taps people’s brains, but in his tweet he cries out for helplessness.

Friday, 21 May 2021
Now let’s ask ourselves how to handle anti-vaxxers. Clash with them and debunk their lies or cut them dead. My gut feeling goes for the former, but prudence tells to opt for the latter. If you respond to their twaddle, you increase its visibility in the Internet. The lack of reaction firstly means the content reaches fewer recipients, moreover, being ignored will make them feel worse.

Saturday, 22 May 2021
One-third of Poland’s entire population have received at least one dose of a vaccine. Long way before we reach herd immunity, if ever.

Sunday, 23 May 2021
Should the government consider financial rewards to persuade those who sceptical to get vaccinated. I would get the jab even if I were to pay for it, but if this is the only way to reach the herd immunity, I would reluctantly back it. Education should be key.

Monday, 24 May 2021
A three-digit number of new infections reported for the first time since 23 September 2020. Now waiting for the story to unfold – will the seven-day moving average decline below 1,000 or will loosened restrictions combined with the Indian variant lead to uptrend in new infections (look at the UK).

Tuesday, 25 May 2021
Yesterday Poland’s most worshipped football player wangled out of answering the question whether he would be vaccinated (upon taking royalties for becoming an ambassador of the National Vaccination Programme). Today he was vaccinated with the only single-dose vaccine available in Europe.

Wednesday, 26 May 2021
The government vaccination lottery, unveiled yesterday was said to be a total flop, a move unlikely to convince those who dither. Today morning, as I refreshed a page which shows free vaccination slots, few were available for mRNA vaccines in comparison to yesterday.

Thursday, 27 May 2021
Belarus ceased to report deaths in 2020, with the last figures available for June 2020 (and hinting at rising death tolls). I wonder how the country which consistently averted lockdown has fared.

Friday, 28 May 2021
There are countries in northern hemisphere which have experienced a peak (defined as maximum 7-day rolling average) of the third wave in May 2021:
- Lithuania on 3 May 2021,
- Georgia on 11 May 2021,
- Latvia on 13 May 2021,
- Japan on 15 May 2021,
- Denmark on 16 May 2021 (and neared that peak on 21 May 2021).
Worth noting in the United Kingdom new cases rose by nearly 50% from the bottom (on 5 May 2021).

Saturday, 29 May 2021
The situation has improved much enough to switch into monthly reporting (summaries to be published on each first Sunday of a month until the pandemic is over, really over, not declared to be fought over). The 7-day average number of new infections has declined below 1,000. Today begins the grand reopening of the economy, i.e. venues where the risk of catching the virus is reasonably high are fully opened. I expect that despite progress of the vaccination programme infections will bottom out around mid-June. Expect the next post on 20 June 2021, after I am back from holidays on the Polish seaside.

The New Deal or the New Scam?

I have used the reverse translation method to do Nowy Ład into English, as Roosevelt’s New Deal agenda is commonly translated into Polish as such. The Nowy ład has also been immediately dubbed Nowy Wał by critics of the government, for which I use term in the title of the post.

It has taken me a few days to catch up with the document. Since the quality of media coverage in Poland is on decline, same as journalists’ grasp of economics, I have decided to take more than a glimpse at the source document, before drawing any conclusions. Despite my dislike for the government, I am trying to take an unbiased look.

The agenda is a leap forward, to keep up the support by the parliamentary election in 2023 and in the meantime to buy off some voters. People have to forget about the trauma of the pandemic and over 100,000 excess deaths the country will have reported by the time the epidemic is truly over.

The very document is just a blueprint of what PiSites want to reform in Poland by 2030, full of general catchwords, lofty intentions and bragging about recent successes. At such level and stage lacking details, but setting objectives. I shall focus on commenting just a few of them.

1.  Increasing the health care spending to 7% of GDP – a commendable goal, yet allocation of money must be wise between available resources. As three decades of not sorted out problems of the state-run health service in Poland prove, any government can sink an infinite amount of money into the system, but in order to make it operate efficiently and patient-friendly, structural problems need to be tacked.

2.  Raising the tax allowance to PLN 30,000 is a step that moves us closer to standards of taxation in the civilised world, where those earning the minimum wage pay almost no tax.

3.  The document mentions a deductible for the middle class, i.e. those whose yearly earnings are in the range from PLN 70,000 to PLN 130,000 – an interesting idea, yet without any details. This point has not appeared in the media coverage.

4.  The threshold for the second tax bracket is to be raised from PLN 85,528 (at which it has stood since 2009) to PLN 120,000 which still does not make up for accumulated inflation over the last 13 years, yet brings some relief to the middle class.

5.  Remote working in non-pandemic times should be finally governed by law (even sooner), ensuring the employee gets compensated for their house maintenance expenses related to home office – at last.

6.  I searched in the document for the provision under which the health care contribution will no longer be deducted from taxable income and have not found it. If such intention does hold true, it will offset positive effects of points 2, 3 and 4.

7.  Property purchase equity is to be guaranteed by the government. Here I am the most sceptical. All programmes aimed at the housing markets pump up property prices (making them less affordable) and benefit banks as mortgage lenders. The scheme is to include a cap on price per square metre, but it will either be sky-high or exclude most properties in large cities from the programme. I would call for a programme aimed at increasing supply of dwelling, yet in a civilised way.

8.  The state is to become an important investor and to create directly or indirectly 500,000 jobs. I am wary of this – free market allocates resources more efficiently, but in Europe and in the USA governments pursue sizeable recovery programmes, so Poland just falls into line.

9.  The tax burden for enterprises to be lower – fine, yet in Poland not the level of taxes, but the instability od regulations and extent to which they are complicated make up a problem.

10. The pension system with the current pension age (60 for women, 65 for men) is not sustainable and the document does not address that issue.

The costs of the agenda have been presented in the document, yet funding sources have not been specified. Any government before it begins to give out money has to collect it in taxes or run up debts. Do bear in mind there is no such thing as a free lunch in economics.

Pandemic diary – weeks 60 & 61

Monday, 3 May 2021
Long weekend comes to an end, along with a massive propaganda mass vaccination campaign. Mobile vaccination centres draw in scores of people queuing up to get one shot of J&J vaccine without waiting for a slot. Picture of people standing in the rain are deplorable. In the meantime nobody raised a little finger to ensure regular vaccination centres work at full blast during the long weekend. For comparison:
- 338 thousand vaccines were administered on 30 April 2021,
- 114 thousand vaccines were administered on 1 May 2021,
- data for 2 May 2021 are not yet available today, as servers have packed up.

Tuesday, 4 May 2021
The first major step in unfreezing. DIY and furniture are reopened, same as shopping malls, a long-awaited moment for me. School fully open to the youngest pupils.

Wednesday, 5 May 2021
The seven-day average of new infection declines below the through reached between the “second” and “third” wave (i.e. 5,214 on 9 February 2021).

Thursday, 6 May 2021
There is much hype about the Indian variant and too much panic. We still have no evidence it is more contagious, more lethal or escapes vaccines. The mutation was not behind the outbreak of the pandemic in India, but all-out abandoning any sanitary regime. Masks off, huge gatherings on – a quick recipe for disaster.

Friday, 7 May 2021
1Q2021: shortage of vaccines was a problem.
2Q2021: logistics in distribution and organising vaccination centres might be a problem.
3Q2021 (or even late June 2021): vaccine hesitancy wall might be a problem. I seriously one day we will have plenty of vaccines and efficient system of vaccinations and 30% of adults reluctant to get the jab.

Saturday, 8 May 2021
I get my first shot in Radzymin, mere 40 kilometres from home. Side effects? A pain in my arm. With hindsight – it disappeared on the next day late in the afternoon.

Sunday, 9 May 2021
COVID-19 death toll in Poland hits 70,000. Unless 70% or even 80% of the society are immunised, epidemic will still smoulder and the heinous figure hits 100,000 before the end of 2021.

Monday, 10 May 2021
The government profile SzczepimySię on Twitter informs only 42% of Poles eligible for vaccination have signed up for their jabs. The remaining 58% have not lifted their little fingers to get immune. More than horrifying.

Tuesday, 11 May 2021
A disrespect for restrictions is more and more eye-popping. Much harder to spot a person wearing a mask on a street just ahead of the obligation being lifted, much easier to find an open eatery or a gym (not a novelty, businesses have been operating underground since February 2021).

Wednesday, 12 May 2021
10% of Poland’s entire population (including children) have been fully vaccinated, 27.7% have received at least one dose. This marks a meaningful milestone in the vaccination programme, yet we are still way off herd immunity (if ever achievable).

Thursday, 13 May 2021
Poland overtakes the United Kingdom in terms of deaths per 1 million citizens. In terms of loosening restrictions in three weeks we will be more or less where they are, but in terms of vaccination programme progress, we are lagging far behind. Worth noting the 7-day average of new infections in the UK bottomed out on 5 May 2021 and keeps rising, due to expansion of the Indian variant, which in fact has two sub-variants:
- B.1617.1 – less contagious, but more likely to escape immune response,
- B.1617.2 – more contagious less likely to escape immune response, this one begins to dominate in some regions in the UK.

Friday, 14 May 2021
I mention deaths too often, but worth noting in Hungary 0.3% of the entire population died from COVID-19, the highest percentage in the world. I hope we will not see Budapest in Warsaw.

Saturday, 15 May 2021
The obligation to wear a face mask outdoors is lifted today. What a relief. Hope it never returns, but fear it is reinstated before the end of summer, as with carefree opening of social life with insufficient populational immunity, new infections might rise again.