Sunday, 25 February 2024

Two years past the invasion

2 years and 1 days past the day the russian army launched a full-scale invasion into Ukraine, I am looking back at my coverage of those days. For some time I have not been an ardent blogger, but I carry on to save my thoughts for posterity and for myself. Those first days of war were a shock. Until recently majority of us got accustomed to the cruelty behind Poland's eastern border, especially since for months fights on the front were not moving on.

Currently there are more and more reports on scales tipped towards the invaders and military intelligence notes telling despite its failure in the Ukraine, Russia is slowly preparing for a war against NATO, which might break out in 3 to 5 years.

Politicians from countries neighbouring on russia began to speak openly about the eventuality of a war. Those at the biggest peril are:
- Sweden (not a NATO member, the country has not experienced war since 1815),
- Finland (a NATO member since April 2023, badly tainted by Soviets during WW2, having the longest border strip with russia in Europe),
- Norway (remember it borders russia at the northern edge of the continent),
- Baltic countries (used to be a part of the soviet empire for half a century, thus being a natural target),
- Poland (russia's everlasting enemy as a matter of principle) and
- Moldova (a god-forsaken land between Ukraine and Romania).

Preparations for the war should move from a verbal realm into actions, especially military training and manufacturing. It needs to be stressed Europe has supported Ukraine with its own military resources, but over that time effort to rebuild Europe's depleted defence capacity have not been taken. Several countries have run out of their stocks of ammunition or military vehicles, thus NATO's ability to ward off an attack is impaired. Even if the armaments serve a purpose of a deterrent, they are worthwhile (a decade ago I would argue military spending is a waste of public money). Nevertheless the united Europe seems too sluggish. For many years EU countries have not managed too agree on ceasing to move clocks back and forth and switching to daylight saving time, so will they be able to get their act together, especially if for Western Europe the russian soldiers are thousands kilometres away.

Putin's army did not conquer Ukraine, but incurred severe losses in the battlefields. Human-wise, its resources are limited, yet sending millions of conscripts to die in a warfare has never been a problem to the uncivilised empire. Resourse-wise, military manufacturings is running at full blast and there are signs the russian economy has been switched into the military mode. Economic sanctions imposed on russia are bypassed (through countries such as Armenia or Kazakhstan), despite being cut off from modern technologies, russia is not on its knees.

Whatever fate Ukraine meets, Europe has to support it to help the evil invader bleed out there. There era of peace in Europe might soon be over, but let's buy time to defer the moments it goes down in history.

Currently the biggest threat lies in the USA, where the presidential election is due in less than 9 months. If the narcistic, unpredictable psychopat wins, Europe will have reasons to quake. NATO's power largely hinges upon the defence power its overseas ally.

The picture to the right is the cover most recent issue of "Wprost" weekly. Keeping fingers crossed for its poor predictive power, ley ot be contrary to its cartoonist's illustratory skills.

Sunday, 18 February 2024

A demographic disaster?

With the recently released birth statistics in Poland we might easily admit the problem with ageing and declining population in my homeland is getting horrific.

As the graph with preliminary figures for 2023 shows, albeit the number of deaths is not rising (COVID-19 accelerated many deceases), the number of births is plummeting. Had it not been for migrants (predominantly Ukrainians), merely 252,000 infants would have been born last year. Actually the 252,000 thousand is the rough number of children born with the Polish citizenship.

The major reason for the number of births getting lower is the echo of the previous demographic wave, with a high of new births of 724,000 in 1983, but then decreasing gradually to around 350,000 in 2003. Since then for over a decade the number of births was getting higher, with some boost in 2017 put down to 500+ child allowance in place.

Within 6 years the number of birth, upon
adjustment for inflow of Ukrainians has gone down by more than 35%. Over that time fertility rate of women fell from nearly 1.5 to around 1.3, compared to 2.0 around 1990. Needless to say, if a country’s population is not about to dwindle, the rate should be slightly above 2.0 in mid-term.

Most (but not all) European countries are facing the same problem, yet in the Western Europe fertile migrants tend to make up for the shortfall of domestic births. The key reasons cited for the trend by both experts and home-grown specialists are:
1) a cultural and lifestyle shift in which raising a family is not the only option, but one of many, with decreasing social pressure for having children,
2) priority of career pursuit / convenience for many people (not only women),
3) shortage of mature male partners to women who would become responsible fathers participants in upbringing and household works,
4) housing problems, especially high property purchase and rental prices, compounded by lack of non-commercial accommodation alternatives,
5) financial insecurity,
6) lack of systemic support for parents wishing to combine professional duties with taking care of children.

Another problem, less often mentioned is that many couple confine themselves to one child only. Back at school, I was one of very, very few only children, with everyone around having siblings. With hindsight I see having a sister or a brother teaches empathy, sharing and social skills. A child which is not an only child quickly realises they are not a hub of the universe, but sadly, several “only childs” these days are brought up in such way. I am holding back from assessing parents choosing a 2+1 model (the motivations are the same as for declining overall fertility), but I see several drawbacks of such option.

To show the declining number of children per woman is not necessarily an option, let’s look at the example of Czech Republic, not a catholic nation, with wide access to abortion in early pregnancy. Surprising to the pro-life wackos, they do not have such problem as Poland. Reasons why our southern neighbours have done so well have been listed by Łukasz Pietrzak on his X profile:
1) the highest number of in-vitro inseminations per citizen in the EU,
2) low unemployment and higher job security,
3) a well-developed network of public nursery schools (low-cost daily care for children aged 3 – 6),
4) a young-parent allowance is paid to each parent until a child turns 4 (helps combine professional duties and parenthood),
5) 100% salary equivalent is paid during a maternity leave,
6) generous tax allowance for parents,
7) flexible labour market schemes for young parents, including part-time jobs and home office.
Some of the above are already in place in Poland, on others the Polish new government needs to work on. Given the overall cultural context of many youngsters ruling out parenthood altogether, it will partly go in vain, but if we look at the upsides, it will benefit the planet.

Sunday, 11 February 2024

Property market in Poland – going bonkers indeed?

As prices of residential properties soared in a double-digit pace in Poland in recent months, pricing several first-time buyers out of the market, many wonder, whether the market is already red-hot, how big the imbalance of it is and where the property prices are heading. I will try to come up with a cool-headed analysis, with my judgements underpinned by 3Q2023 NBP and Amron-Sarfin reports (charts come thereof).

Looking at the past two decades, one sees property prices skyrocketed between 2005 and 2007, then levelled off on unsustainably high level, to decline by 20% - 25% in nominal terms by late 2012. For the next five years dwelling prices where in a slight uptrend, which began to accelerate in 2018. In nominal terms, peak levels from 2008 were hit over a decade later. The pandemic did not cool the market down, but the increasing interest rates did it in 2022. In nominal terms prices levelled off, but upon the inflationary adjustment, they fell by 15% - 20% within one year. Then in the second half of 2023 prices increased again, driven by a generous mortgage subsidy programme…

Looking at the graph which shows how many square metres an average salary in major Polish cities would buy, one could infer the market has not gone crazy. The underlying analysis by NBP has some critical drawbacks:
1) salaries are gross-of-tax, which fails to take into account changes in taxation (Polski Ład), which benefitted those who earn less, but hit the middle class,
2) it does not take into account costs of living, especially:
- a portion of net-of-tax wages need spent on payments to landlord by those who reside in rented flats,
- rising costs of basic expenses, such as dwelling upkeep costs and nutrition.

As I coincide with the conclusion dwellings were most affordable in 2016 and 2017, the uptick in affordability in 1H2023 is doubtful given that salary growth did not catch up with rising costs of living around that time.

Analysts from Amron-Sarfin have come up with an enhanced housing availability index, which takes into account more factors, including purchasing power of disposable income and access to mortgage lending. According to their measures, the dream of an own residential property was harder to come true already in 2021 and by the second half of 2022 it declined to levels unseen since a decade. Currently an ordinary man finds it as difficult to buy a flat, as they did in 2011.

Arguably, the property market in Poland is not in a most buyer-friendly shape, but let’s look where it might be heading.

The factors which are likely to drive property prices up are:
1) ongoing first-time buyers schemes extended recently by the government – in Warsaw given the tight criteria they will not spoil the market badly,
2) overall conviction of market participants that prices will go up, turning into self-fulfilling prophecy (this means bubble-like conditions),
3) stringent technical requirements residential buildings from the primary market must meet – they elevate construction costs and jack up property prices on secondary market too,
4) supply constraints – as property developers still have it uphill to get the planning permission.

On the other hand, the market is facing some headwinds, which makes good news for buyers:
1) interest rates remain on a high level and prospects for a material monetary loosening are weak,
2) rental yields are already low – current net income from dwelling subletting is these days lower than on a bank deposit or from government bonds, while risk and liquidity of property investments is incomparably higher,
3) the long cycle is drawing to a close, as examples of countries where prices began to rise earlier than in Poland (Germany, Scandinavia) show,
4) more and more buyers are priced out of the market, which dents the demand.

I have no bloody idea which group of factors will have a bigger impact on the market in real terms (note property price growth below in the inflation rate is an actual decline), but there are several solutions, which might let ordinary people have their housing needs met.

Firstly, let’s build more dwellings, yet without allowing for pathological solutions (which should be theatrically verified by the free market, but under conditions of constrained housing availability, such mechanism does not work).

Secondly, levy taxes on multiple residential property owners (those in possession of more than two properties), which would be progressive (higher tax rates for each next dwelling) and  which would hit harder uninhabited (including not sublet) dwellings. This would curb speculative purchases, which have done a lot of harm to the market (a flat bought for speculative purposes is empty, i.e. not rented and a speculator bets they will gain only from value growth, which is typical for a bubble-like market).

Thirdly, increase protection of landlords – sadly tenants are overly protected by the law in Poland and hence many property owners are afraid of subletting their flats. With a higher supply of flats, rents would go down, which would mean demand from investors would decrease and properties would become more affordable to those who seek their own roof over their heads.

Sunday, 4 February 2024

Questions unanswered (in random order)

Is it meant to last or was it bound to fail?

Do doubts from the very beginning bode well?

If it could fall apart so many times, what keeps it together?

How do I know when downs prevail over ups (or the other way round)?

Do we complement each other actually?

Is the balance between giving and taking struck?

Haven’t I forced those common goals upon?

Is carefree life a value itself?

Where do you yourself life-wise in five years? Is it a part of any plan or do you just flow with the tide?

When can you say a human is emotionally mature?

Is being an adult overwhelming?

A career, earning and spending, dog-breeding, sport, consuming, chasing pleasures of life – is it fine enough? Can I seek depth in it? Can I chase sense init?

Does parenthood alter a human? Does it deprive them of freedom? Is it being slowly regained as offspring grow up?

How much patience does it take to tolerate a life companion? Was he right to say a fellow (wo)man will always f**k you up, so you need to love them to bits to put up with them?

Is sticking to values and goals more important than continuity of a relationship?

Why do people get stuck in mediocre set-ups? Out of convenience or out of fear?

How long will she be deferring that decision? By the time she lives it up fair enough? By the time she earns more money? By the time she carefully thinks it over? By the time she grows mature? By the time it’s too late?

Are we playing for time?

How fed up could I get to realise there can be a better way?

Can a mere fascination be considered infidelity?

Can fatigue of being taken make a man act like a single?

When indifference become a warning sign?

Is a frank conversation overrated?

Is she still a girl scared of responsibilities adulthood involves?

Does she hope it gets too late and I will accept it?

How much space is between a perfect match and a perfect mismatch?

Am I picking nits or are we arguing about elementary stuff?

Are we just passing time?

What holds me back from moving ahead?

What brings out a fear of taking a wrong decision?

How long can we carry on like this?

…and many more…

Sunday, 28 January 2024

On the death of cousin Paweł

As this note is automatically posted I am about to depart from Jelenia Góra back to Warsaw after my cousin’s funeral held yesterday. I learnt about his sudden death on Thursday evening, yet I was not shell-shocked…

Paweł died aged 43 on Tuesday, 23 January 2024. He was survived by a mother, a wife and two children.

He was the only son of Ciocia Asia, my mother’s cousin who I first met in 2009. During that holidays we also got to know Paweł, his wife Agnieszka and their daughter (aged 4 then). Around that time despite the distance between our part of the family, the relationship got quite intense. In November 2013 Wujek Mietek, Ciocia Asia’s husband, died from cancer. Soon after the second child of Paweł and Agnieszka was born and they bought a plot near Jelenia Góra and built a house there.

I last visited them in their still newly-built home in June 2019. With Ciocia Asia I last met last March, during late-winter skiing holidays.

In early January 2024 Paweł’s wall on Facebook was crying for help. Online I found out Agnieszka threw him out of their house and they were about to divorce. I was distasted by him washing their dirty linen in public. I remember talking to my mother and fearing he would take an unwanted ultimate step in his despair. My mother talked to Ciocia Asia last week. Paweł was home down with COVID-19.

On Thursday evening Agnieszka posted an obituary on her facebook profile. My first thought was he had taken away his life. Paweł was a well-known teacher and a sport coach in Jelenia Góra so the news on his departure were published in local news sites. Reading some of the comments made me want to puke… Anonymous people either blamed his wife or asked how many time he had been vaccinated. In order to cut out all the speculations, Agnieszka informed on the heart attack as a cause of death. The problem with the heart was most probably an aftermath of a car accident Paweł had had in November 2023, during which the airbags did not go off. Since that time he had only stronger pains in his chest and took only stronger painkillers. Most probably his heart did not resist increasing dosage of medicines, COVID-19 and the divorce-related stress.

I feel terribly sorry for Ciocia Asia, for Paweł’s daughter, aged 18, who will be taking high-school leaving exams in May and his son, aged nearly 10. They are now experiencing a triple trauma – caused by the divorce, the sudden death and people gossiping on the suicide as the cause of death.

Fate and justice at times go separate ways. Balancing at the edge of chaos sometimes involves having a brush on death and getting carried away...

Sunday, 21 January 2024

An internal transfer

In six months it will have been a decade since I joint my current employer. With ups and downs and moments of both satisfaction and frustration, the overall balance of that professional relationship is positive, hence I'm soldiering on.

My first promotion (to a "senior analyst" position) came into effect in January 2018 and it involved a transfer to a parallel unit. I have carried on here until now, with one more promotion (I am an "expert" since September 2022) along the way. Six years in one place make up nearly a half of my career and are much enough to necessitate a refreshment. 2023 was the most difficult year on my professional path. An uphill portfolio of clients, instrumental role in an uphill multinational project and uphill mentoring to non-promising juniors have taken their toll on me. The workload at times was unbearable. I worked very efficiently, but could not make it within 8 hours, so I had to do overtime, frequently handling two things at the same time, despite that I got behind with work and assertively refused to take up even more tasks on my back. In December I was sick of it...

At the beginning of 2023 my previous (2018 - 2022) manager took over headship of a newly set up specialised financed unit. We'd got on with each other more than well, so in 2Q2023 we began negotiating my transfer to his new bereau. A green light was in place in late May 2023, with the very transfer delayed until early 2024 to let me sort several things out and to give my managers time to find two FTEs (speaks volumes of my workload) to replace me (they failed to do so).

In the new role, starting over on 1 February, though the transition period has begun now, I will need to learn a lot. I will see the back of taking care of not particularly bright juniors. Hopefully, my workload  declines, to be closer to "reasonable", which will be still a step ahead after what I have gone through in 2023. Combing career development with slowing down appears to be a challenge, time will tell if I am up to it.

Sunday, 14 January 2024

Skoda Octavia IV estate

Given what I have written about replacing old, but still reliable vehicles with brand-new ones, you are now in for an unrepeatable opportunity to accuse me of duplicity. In the second half of 2024 I am bound to drive out of a showroom in a car mentioned in the post title.

My Megane III by that time will be over 13 years old and will likely have more than 110,000 kilometres on the clock. Reliability-wise, I cannot complain about the car's performance. Except for wear-and-tear and regular maintenance, the car haas not needed additional visits in a Renault garage. Conceivably, it might serve somebody well for years, though at the back of my mind I see a risk it might become a piggy bank all of the sudden.

If so, why am I replacing it? Firstly, this is probably one of the last moments to lock in a car from the "old motoring" era. You know my skepticism towards electric vehicles, which I believe are a dead-end street and are far from being environment-friendly. I intend to keep the new car going for possibly long, even if it involves bans for city centre entrance (I don't need to drive there anyway) and paying sin taxes for the combustion engine. If I use the new car sparingly and not replace it for two decades, my carbon footprint will be much lower than of somebody who will buy three electric cars and drive much longer distances than me over the same time.

Why the very Skoda Octavia IV estate? Firstly, it is quite capacious (plenty of space for 4 passengers inside, boot of 640 litres) and is not an SUV. Secondly, it offers reasonable price-to-quality trade-off. Thirdly, the comfort and pleasure of driving the VW 1.5 150 hp engine with manual gearbox (I still dislike the automatic transmission after driving several thousand kilometres in company cars equipped with it) is superior.

I believe reliability of this vehicle, if I use it respectfully and have it maintained with proper care, might still be good. The weakest spot of each brand-new car is electronics. Octavia IV is also spiked with it and here I envisage some room for spontaneous visits in Skoda garages.

I will not pay up-front over PLN 130,000 for the car, as I will not even purchase it. It will formally be a company car, with rental instalments deducted from my pre-tax salary, which effectively means a tax shield of approximately PLN 35,000 during the three-year lease term. After that I will have the option to prolong the lease for next 2 years or buy out the car for PLN 70,000. All in all, the net savings in such financing scheme add up to more than PLN 30,000.

As written before, I plan to use the car sparingly - I will keep avoiding short-distance journeys and city traffic, have it serviced each year and park it in a dry garage, with a hope it pays me back with trouble-free service for at least 15 years.

Since my car is customised, its manufacturing has been queued for the last week of June, so I will pick it up in late July or August. The vehicle will be still before the facelift, which will spare me gadgets, but save an equivalent of my monthly salary.

All in all, I feel a bit guilty on account of buying it, yet with a prospect of raising a family I would need a new car anyway - the Megane would not serve me for next 20 years and the best moment for fixing myself up with a non-electrified vehicle with a manual gearbox might be missed soon.

Sunday, 24 December 2023

Szlachetna Paczka 2023 - a write-up

This year the Szlachetna Paczka coverage comes up later than usual as the final days (weekend cudów) were staged a week before Christmas, not roughly 10 - 16 days ahead of the festive season, as customarily. The timing in the pre-holiday rush was not the most fortunate and hopefully in 2024 it will be held earlier.

This year's edition in my district was another record-breaking one, with 85 families visited by volunteers (+1 vs. 2022) and 58 taken on (+5 vs. 2022). The latter number meant logistics of collecting the paczki from donators and delivering them to families was a sort of a challenge, yet with proper planning in advance and more than a bit of spontainety in diverging from the plan during the final weekend, we have it without botch-ups (which I deem to be quite an achievement).

I feared 2023 edition in Ursynów would be impacted by high rotation of volunteers. Most of my friends who supported me in 2022 dropped off for several reasons and hence out of 26 volunteers less merely 7 had track record in the area. Nevertheless, the vast majority of newcomers have found their way in the Paczka easily and upon overcoming fears of first meetings with families, they carried on superbly. I am glad to have been a part of such team.

This year we received several applications (which must be submitted by third parties, not potential beneficiaries themselves) to visit families already contacted in previous edition. Not a truly fortunate state of affairs, since as a matter of principle, Szlachetna Paczka ought to be a one-off trigger of positive changes in families' lives. But as most of the recurring families were elderly people living on their own, we eventually have taken many of them on. In 2024 we will need to take a look at the formula of the wise aid and talk over whether to redefine our targets.

In 2023 I was a volunteer, a deputy leader and deputy logistics co-ordinator. My role was much less time-consuming than last year and I know I could carry on with such scope of responsibilities into 2024. I have not talked to the leader, whether she would want to continue her role. I know it is too early to raise the topic, given I realise how exhausted she is now.

The blend of fatigue and happiness which kept me company during the weekend of miracles and past it, is an unforgettable feeling. It sometimes takes to little to bring lots of pure you into someone's life, by delivering them ordinary stuff such as warm jacket for the winter or a brand-new washing machine, stuff we take for granted to have it in place, sadly still unaffordable for many. This year I don't experience the burnout I had a year ago. I feel now is the time to recharge batteries before the next edition, so temporarily do not crave for more, but I am quite sure my adventure with the Paczka is not over.

Next post due on 14 January 2024, once I am back from Wisła.

Sunday, 10 December 2023

Changes

A short note written amid a hectic period to posterity (as nearly all recently) during two underground train rides.

Again, I have entered the phase of learning to live together. My girlfriend moved in to my flat a week ago. My one-bedroom 51 sqm place has become a kind of tiny, yet I bear in mind this is a temporary dwelling. The experience is different to the one I went through a few years ago, especially since I have invited a co-host to a space I had occupied for a longer while, instead of moving in to a flat rented together. We are doing some refurbrishments, preparing my girlfriend's flat before subletting, hence a lot is going on around.

Weather-wise, worth noting the current December is the "most wintry" since 2012. The average temperature in the first decade of the month had a material negative deviation, snow has been on the ground for over a week now. A mild thaw sets in today, but outlook for the second half of the month remains uncertain. Keeping fingers crossed for white Christmas anyway.

This year I am only a volunteer and a deputy leader in Szlachetna Paczka, with these role being far less time-consuming that last year. The circle keeps turning and people keep doing a good job, with a record number of 58 families from Ursynów receiving aid this year. I am proud to have had the contribution to set this machine in motion.

Corpo-wise, my workload has not eased up. Turning over a new leaf is due on 1 February - I am about to move to a parallel team dealing with more complicated transactions.  Lots of challenges ahead and with a bit of overstaffing out there I hope to have more space for recharging batteries.

The experience of the recent months has reinforced my dislike for life in haste. Being in constant rush is detrimental to physical and mental health, takes away pleasure from life, hampers relationships (all, not only romantic ones) and brings out a feeling of missing out on important things. The worst of all is the feeling that with such shortage of time I could not be a caring and committed father, fully involved in looking after children. The clock is ticking slowly, but the time seems to be running out too fast.

Next post on Christmas Eve!

Sunday, 3 December 2023

In condemnation of oversized vehicles

My deep dislike for agrestic oversized vehicles has not been a secret for many readers of this blog for years. I could go on and write a tirade how far too big vehicles reflect their users’ oversized ego, megalomania, inferiority complex, but… spewing out so many insults would mean hurting some of my good friends and workmates, hence in order not to spoil my relationships with people I contain myself and in casual conversations only express my (strong) preference not to use such cars. Instead of compiling a yet another rant about their uselessness (they are not more capacious than a smaller and lighter well-designed estate cars) and lack of off-road capacities, I will make reference to a series of articles published recently in the Guardian, quote (italicised) the crucial takeaways and add a few words of my own comments.

1. Monsters of the road: what should the UK do about SUVs?

After a period of falling, the CO2 emissions of new cars sold in both the UK and the EU have been rising since 2016. Experts attribute the reversal to an increase in SUV sales.
–> you won’t circumvent the laws of physics. Heavier vehicles need more power to be propelled and even with more fuel-efficiency improvements in place, a two-tonne SUV emits more carbon dioxide than a small city car manufactured in the 1990s, whose weight is over 50% lower. Actually if only cars kept being reasonably small, overall emissions would go down considerably.

For a couple of years, more than a decade ago, I was the car reviewer for the Guardian. I test drove very few SUVs, but on the rare occasions that I did, I experienced two distinct feelings. The first was a debilitating concern about navigating such a large vehicle through the capital’s congested streets. And the second, as that anxiety began to ease, was a sensation of being above the fray, apart from the crowd, somehow superior to my surroundings.
–> sitting higher and looking down on the surrounding traffic from above is what I detest about SUVs. Oddly enough, it does not make me feel any safer. I feel more comfortable in a “normal” car, where a gravity load is located lower.

After a slightly banal tour of west London’s A roads, I ask the salesman what the car is like at negotiating speed humps.
“Try accelerating towards one,” he suggests.
On a deserted side street I do just that, driving at the kind of speed over a “traffic-calming” hump that would rip out the undercarriage of my hatchback. The big-wheeled SUV glides over it. Thus measures implemented to protect pedestrians work very effectively with the cars that do least damage, but are next to useless with the cars that cause most harm.

–> this is one of the essences why I believe driving an SUV is anti-social…

I had an ominous encounter with this marketed anxiety one afternoon a while ago. As I carefully lined up my small hatchback to reverse into a parking space that faced out into a north London street, a great bulbous shiny black thing, like some armour-plated sci-fi machine, drove straight into “my” space and also occupied a couple of feet of the one next to it.
A moment later, an elegantly dressed woman in her 30s climbed down from the vehicle with its bumper wheels and blacked-out windows, and started to walk off. I called out that she’d left me no room to park. Exasperated, she complained that I should have told her when she was in the car, and reluctantly returned to re-park. After five or six attempts, she gave up and got out. She was still impeding the adjacent space, but not by as much.
“Excuse me,” I said, as she stomped off, “can I ask why you have such a big car?”
She looked at me as though I were some mad Unabomber-type, and in a voice quaking with righteous indignation snapped: “Because I’ve got a baby!”
At the time, it seemed an absurd response (it still does), but that woman’s perspective has become a cliche. The problem with building cars for the protection of those within them, however, is that it tends to have a deleterious effect on the protection of those without.
As Murray puts is: “If you’re driving around in a small lightweight vehicle and you have a collision with, say, a Land Rover Defender, it’s going to smash you to bits.”

–> if I come across a badly parked car in Poland, it usually is an SUV. Besides, the delusory sense of protection at the expense of other road users is an example of selfishness I cannot stand.

Even the slow switch to electric cars is an unsatisfying solution. EV design favours SUVs because the elevated seats allow space for the battery pack, but they tend to make electric SUVs even heavier than the petrol versions.
“With bigger vehicles,” says Hannon, “you’ll get less kilowatt/hour efficiency, more material used to build them, bigger battery packs, and there are serious supply chain concerns around precious metals and minerals that go into these vehicles, and questionable ethics associated with how they are mined and processed.”

–> I pointed out more than once electrics cars are a dead-end street, but the claim electric SUVs can combine the human megalomania and the climate protection issues is an enormous lie.

2. Motor emissions could have fallen by over 30% without SUV trend, report says

Emissions from the motor sector could have fallen by more than 30% between 2010 and 2022 if vehicles had stayed the same size, a report has found.
Instead, the size of the average car ballooned as the trend for SUVs took off, meaning the global annual rate of energy intensity reductions – the fall in fuel used – of light-duty vehicles (LDV) averaged 4.2% between 2020 and 2022.

–> this is anything, but surprising…

The authors of the report called for governments to place restrictions on vehicle sizes to reverse the SUV trend.
–> I am sceptical towards pure restrictions and would rather call for heavy sin taxes for such vehicles, predominantly on purchases of new vehicles, less severe on ownership of existing ones, to price in (even excessively) their detriment to the environment.

3. SUVs emit more climate damaging gas than older cars do, study finds
–> this article is behind the paywall, but the message from the heading stands to reason. A 10-year-old small, sparingly used city car will do much less harm to the planet than an SUV used for one-per-car short-distance trips.

While keeping in mind an impending climate disaster, I do not tend to favour radical steps, as they bring out human defiance. When people are prohibited from doing something, they are even more tempted to do it. I believe financial penalties (heavy sin taxes) for selfish behaviours work much better. Being told you cannot afford to drive an SUV is a preferable solution to being forbidden to drive an SUV. You can say there still will be a handful of rich men driving embarrassingly chunky vehicles, but they will not constitute 50% of brand-new car sales, as they do now on many markets. SUVs are a product of marketing a useless good. Brushing aside all their drawbacks, they actually lack a major merit carmakers claim they have – space. A Skoda Octavia estate is more capacious in terms of space for passengers and luggage than an average SUV, while its kerb weight (standard petrol engines below 1.5 litre) is between 1.26 and 1.51 tonnes (depending on engine and equipment), some 25% lower than of a typical brand-new SUV. By dint of sheer mass difference, a petrol-fuelled Skoda Octavia estate 1.5 TSI emits (a bit) less CO2 per kilometre than a hybrid Toyota RAV4, with large 2.5-litre engine and kerb weight of 1.91 tonnes. The numbers speak for themselves, but they are sadly unlikely to convince consumers fond of “obese” cars…